Riverbrian

Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc.

I use Kepler as an example of the idea. If Rosario could play IF it wouldn’t be necessary to move Kepler. If Austin could play OF. DH opens for a bunch of different matchup moves. I’m not going to get tied to one specific player but I am tied to the concept. On Astudillo. I love the guy. He should have gotten at least a hundred more AB’s with us last year. I want the team stacked with enough talent that players with options have to Knock down the door to make the roster.

Nick... You'll be getting resistance on this but your thinking is exactly how you the team needs to think. The team doesn't need to follow your plan to a tee but the concepts you raise are important. Kepler: I understand that he is a plus plus defender in the OF. The discussion isn't a full time move to 1B never to play OF again. It is the occasional game played at 1B. If anyone is claiming that our defense is going to fall apart of if Kepler isn't in RF EVERY DAY, then they didn't notice that Kepler wasn't in the OF every day last year. It doesn't have to be Kepler... Rosario occasionally at 3B. It allows you to acquire more assets if you have places to move the over flow. This isn't a hard concept and the fears expressed are 18th century. Romero and May: Sconnie is right, Remove the starting/reliever pitching labels. Make them pitchers. You don't have to choose between 1 inning of work or 6 innings of work with May. If he's getting people out... let him keep getting people out. Those who get batters out, get more innings. Same thing with Romero. Working Romero out of the bullpen with the idea that a bullpen arm doesn't have to throw just one inning will be a way to manage how many innings he throws. Across baseball Starters had a 4.29 ERA and the bullpen arms had a 4.09 ERA. Astudillo... Oddly enough. This is the only place I have a slight disagreement. He has options... you need depth in the minors. By starting Astudillo in Rochester... it prevents the team from needing Bobby Wilson as injury replacement.

Exactly... I’m ok with the signing. I want assets acquired. I want improvements regardless of the increment. My concern at the moment is Austin. If this causes Austin to be cut. I may have an issue. If signing Cron makes them think we don’t have room for further upgrades then I will have an issue. Ultimately... I want upgrades and assets acquired and will wait to see the finished product.

Since May, I have been talking about the need for flexibility. First move of the off-season was the exact opposite.

Methodology that can't be dismissed.

All in All... I don't think they were planning on Cron but Tampa Bay screwed up those plans.

Cron does not have options remaining. Austin does not have options remaining. Neither can be stashed. Cron will cost 5M. Austin will Cost the minimum. Cron will cost 10M in 2020. Austin will cost the minimum. Cron has 1862 AB's. 96 Home Runs (1 per 19,39) with a .772 OPS - Austin has 367 AB's 24 HR's (1 per 15.29) with a .758 OPS. This isn't just a 5M who cares deal... They gave up two years of control between the two and we don't have clear separation in production between them. This is a gamble that Austin will not pan out over the next two major league minimum years... or at least a gamble that Cron is significantly better than Austin. Signing Cron was not gamble... DFA'ing Austin is the gamble. If it's not the gambles listed above because the Twins will use the DH to roster both. Then it becomes a different gamble that Sano will be everything we dreamed at 3B. I wouldn't take any of those gambles but I'll support the right of the front office to make the gambles they choose to make. All in all... I want them to improve the roster... roster spot by roster spot.

I suppose you'd have to consider that the bulk of his 5M will already been paid by the Twins come July however, it still doesn't solve the league wide power hitting/high K 1B saturation problem.

Giving Austin a scholarship isn't the way I look at it. He showed some potential and he's out of options. When they are out of options you have to give them a roster spot or let them go, Austin intrigued me enough that I don't want to let him go to end up being a Voit type player for someone else. I'd like to see what he could do with 500 AB's. He's got 40 HR power with 500 AB's in my opinion. I feel the same way about Cron as I did when they signed Morrison last year... I was OK with it because I like it when the try to upgrade even at small increments but I mentioned when he was signed that he better be better than Vargas (I've always irrationally liked Vargas) because Vargas would be paid the minimum and Morrison got 6M. Same thing between Cron and Austin... He better be better than Austin if Austin is a causality of the move. It's not a scholarship thing... It's an option thing... losing him thing.

They can't trade Cron... They can release him. The Rays surely would have traded him if they had takers.

The Angels traded Cron when they signed Ohtani. Ohtani needed to DH and this forced Pujols to 1B and Cron can’t play anywhere else. The Angels were only able to trade him for a PTBNL because there are a lot of these guys who can’t play anywhere in the field so nobody is willing to give up anything for them. The Angels were overloaded with them and Cron was forced out the door. Then the Rays find Choi and out the door goes Cron because the Rays can’t get anything of value for him in trade and neither Choi or Cron can play anywhere else. Welcome to Minnesota where Tyler Austin is waiting for you. I go back to asking the question. Why couldn’t Austin play some OF in September while Rosario was hurt? It would have taken just a hair of foresight to see the need before us today. I saw it... I mentioned it here when I saw it. Cron is bouncing from team to team for pennies not because he can’t hit. It’s because he plays at the Pizza joint of positions. There is pizza everywhere from the store bought frozen stuff to the fancy stuff. Nobody finishes the whole box so getting a free slice is easy and it’s hard to survive in the Pizza business because there is pizza everywhere. We’ve gone from 23M pizza to 5M pizza. What we need is Pizza and Wings to survive. Give Austin an OF glove please.

You'll get no criticism from me. The front office was active on all fronts... I'll judge the results when the fruit ripens but they were clearly active on all fronts and being active is the only way you can utilize all fronts. (Granted you can fail spectacularly when active, but you can only succeed by being active). I (many of us) asked for a forward thinking front office... I (we) got it. Now, I'm going to let them crunch those numbers and fill out the roster. (As long as they fill out the ENTIRE roster).

I will make no assumptions on Kirilloff, Lewis or anybody currently on the farm until they become actual value instead of projected value. Meaning until Kirilloff swings a bat at the major league level or is traded for someone who swings a bat at the major league value. He is projected value just like Byron Buxton was once "this guy is going to rule the world". Your question "bad decision" or "bad result" is a great one and I don't know the answer other than the result hasn't been good. Did the Twins draft the right people and then blow it with the management of the right people or did the Twins draft the wrong people leaving it impossible to produce an asset worth managing. It's a good question I don't know but our bad results are piling up. I don't know what was wrong other than there WAS... (Hopefully WAS... Hopefully corrected by the new regime already or soon)... WAS a serious problem with our production of top of the line talent for personal use by our Twins. We've had enough chances to produce our own Mookie Betts and we haven't. Draft and development is the easiest way to acquire a Mookie Betts because after the draft Mookie Betts becomes expensive quickly. Every year... right about this time. Twinsdaily has this same discussion on repeat. Do the Twins have anybody that interests other teams to the point that they are willing to trade us Michael Kopech and Juan Moncada? Nope The Mets are throwing Syndergaard out there. Do the Twins have a comparable? Nope. Kluber? Nope. I'm not suggesting a tear down and selling of assets but I'm suggesting that if we wanted to sell off our assets... what current assets could get the job done? Where are our Superstars? We should have one or two by now.

Well, you've ruined my Thanksgiving by giving me a project to complete. I think you know... or at least I hope you know that I don't attach such things to the current regime. However, such things are attached to the current regime when they took their positions because they are dealing with the aftermath. That aftermath means we haven't reached the statute of limitations in my opinion. The reason we may be looking for a SS is because we didn't do a good job with Levi Michael for example. It matters a bunch.

Could be health but I believe he just has to stop trying to pull outside sliders into the upper deck and the transformation will be quick. He just needs to put more balls in play. If health helps him put more balls in play. I pray for his health. However "Play Games" "Serfdom". Those quotes leave the assumption that you were not a fan of the Buxton decision. If you compare the value of one full year of a healthy more experienced Buxton during a year that we may be in contention (2022) compared to 100 healthy AB's at the end of a year where the team has already failed and not in contention as a result. You are talking about one end of the value spectrum to the other. Trading a productive full year of the Buxton (we both think he could be) for 100 healthy AB's during a lost season would be like trading Mookie Betts for Matt Belisle.

I don't blame the Twins for missing on Tyler Jay. When you consider how many teams have missed over the years, I would be very uncomfortable blaming the Twins for this single draft pick. However... When I add Tyler Jay to every 1st round pick we've had since 2005 and the hind sight results that we can all see. I then start feeling comfortable blaming the Twins.

He's got to be able to contribute immediately... If you got that rare rule 5 guy who can contribute immediately... OK... by all means grab him. The Phillies didn't hide Odubel Herrera. The Rangers didn't hide Darren O' Day. As it stands today, you can't afford to hide a guy anymore unless you are in a rebuild with absolutely no expectation. Contending teams can't give up the roster spot. And... even if you are in a rebuild, the concept of hiding a guy, burning a roster spot with limited and or toxic production is going to actually slow down your rebuild because that roster spot could be used to audition a guy who is closer to proving himself as future value and those guys become actual value at a much higher frequency than the rule 5 guy does. We learned nothing from 3.1 Innings of Tyler Kinley. We grabbed him... Molitor didn't play him and we cut players who landed on other major league rosters for the privilage. There is plenty of risk.

In my opinion... You crushed it with this post. Well done!

100 Grand is nothing. The roster spot that he occupies on the other hand is extremely important.

I pay full attention to the ping pong ball nature of player performance year over year. I was the guy who was kicking himself for not grabbing Mookie Betts in 2016 for my fantasy baseball when I had the chance. Was then determined to land him in 2017 when he had his down season at age 24 and then decided not to spend the high draft pick on him in 2018 when he went nuts again. The paths are typically not straight and true and that is why I am in the trust but verify stage with Sano and Buxton. Don't you dare trade them but don't you dare rely on them either. GIve them a roster spot and make them earn their playing time. Actually, the paths for seasoned vets are not straight and true either and frankly after watching Morrison and Dozier... I'm in the trust and verify stage with the vets to. Bottom Line... I absolutely believe in both Sano and Buxton. However... the Mookie Betts down year at age 24 in 2017 wasn't even close to the down year that Sano and Buxton showed us last year. Also, I am not a WAR guy (I can speak it but I'm not a WAR guy) because the defensive metrics are small sample size half cooked measures in my opinion and when you quote me that Buxton had the twice the WAR that Betts had in 2017 even with better offensive numbers from Betts, it only validates my opinion of WAR and drives further away from using the stats in my player assessment. Buxton is an amazing defensive player and that has serious value but Betts is also a very good defensive player who hits much better (at the moment). No calculation will ever convince me that Buxton was double anything of Mookie Betts. Anyway.. last year was a disaster for our dynamic duo of future hope. It punched me in the gut but I survived it.

Yeah... That's the real sad part to me. It isn't the money the big boys are spending... it's the players they are developing and acquiring with that development. This is where they are kicking our butts. Yeah, they can comfortably eat a Matt Kemp contract if they want and still operate full speed ahead... but do they have to have the Bellingers, Seagers and Buehlers too? Why can't we have some of those guys? Do they have to find Max Muncy, Kike Hernandez, Chris Taylor and Justin Turner off the scrap heap and get Bellinger, Seager, Buehler plus have the money to eat a Matt Kemp contract. When I say where are our superstars... This is what I mean and it has nothing to do with money.

I don't have a problem with the word "building" from Thad. It's what I want... I want the team to be building every year. If they were the Red Sox... I'd want them building. All in all, the proof will come in their actions... not their words. If they coast through the off-season with a couple of low level deals and don't make any significant trades for upgrades... I'll be disappointed for sure but I'll survive it. However... If we have another season where a player or players get to play every day with below .200 production at the plate and alternatives are not attempted. I won't survive that. I don't care if we sign Machado and he tanks like that, I don't care if it's Buxton tanking again and I don't care if it's Michael Reed. Every day jobs need to be given to the players who produce at a level deserving of every day play.If they think Michael Reed can do it... I'm all for it... but they better give him a chance to do it and if he fails, they better try something else. As for Baldeilli's comments on Astudillo. Perfect,,, that's the exact comment I want to hear.... "He's going to have to earn it again". If I got a manager talking about earning the job... I'm beyond happy... now I need the front office to provide that manager with a 40 man roster full of players that are capable of earning the job. Like Judy from Big Lake... I can't do it again. I can't go through another season of mediocre to terrible play being rewarded. I have never blamed the team for signing Morrison, in hindsight it was a mistake but they went for it by offering him a contract and I'd like them to keep trying that kind of stuff. However... I do blame the team for doubling down on the mistake by allowing him to contribute to the sinking of this team. Pohlad, actually everyone is just going to be white noise until I see what they actually do. It better be a 40 man roster that is fully utilized to find the players who are "PRODUCING". Yeah... and the building of a long term model of consistent competitiveness and world peace while they are at it. I'm not messing around anymore... I've seen other teams give playing time to players who are producing while lessening the playing time of those producing less... it's not hard to believe... but something that simple actually works. Imagine that, productivity increases by turning to more productive things. And I have been watching teams for decades go down with the ship with struggling players. No more of that... I'm done with it. I don't care how much money they spend... just get some players who will compete for their careers. Let them feel uncomfortable because player Y is breathing down player X's neck. Produce! They can say anything they want... I'll be watching what they do. They still have my benefit of the doubt.

I'm capable of singing a lot of songs... So, you are right... my tune will change. I've stated that I'd like the Twins to support this core... this off-season, in the possibility of my tune changing because I still think this core could make it happen and make it happen with the speed of a light switch. But... This process isn't as normal as you describe. We have been consistently failing for a long time. We should have our own Judge, Bellinger, Betts, Altuve, Lindor, Goldschmidt or Jose Ramirez type player on our roster by now.

At the very least... this website should be interesting, as some of our posters trying to come to grips with the new stuff.