Riverbrian

Michael Bourn hit 9 home runs last year. Before that his previous high was 5 and typically he hit 2 a year. Ben Revere had 553 at bats last year at age 24. Michael Bourn had 127 career total at age 24 and the Phillies were able to acquire their closer by trading Michael Bourn for Brad Lidge after that season. Bourn hit .229 his first full year in the Majors with the Astros. At age 25 which is really two years behind Ben who got MLB at bats at age 23. Bourn is now set to sign for 75 million at age 29. I acknowledge that there are negative comps as well but am not motivated to find them. I do not believe that Revere should be extended at this time but I continue to be amazed by the under valuing of Ben... And from Twins fans to boot.

Throw ins? I think it's possible that Rizzo and Ryan have been talking for a long time. I think that Rizzo has wanted Span for awhile. I think it's possible that Terry Ryan has been asking for Meyer in return since the trade deadline for Span and Rizzo has been saying that's too much. I think it's possible that Ryan has been talking to a lot of clubs besides the Nats about Span but no team had risen to what Terry was asking. I think it's possible that after the Braves signed Upton... Rizzo called Ryan and said,.. Alright Terry... Damn it.. I'll give you Meyer and a trade was agreed upon. I do not believe that Upton signing with the Braves spurred Terry Ryan to call Rizzo in a panic and settle for this Meyer Kid before the meetings. That signing would be more likely to cause the Nats to come up and finish a deal. Therefore I believe asking for a throw in... Is ridiculous. But I could be wrong on all of these things that I believe.

It's possible that some misunderstandings are taking place on this debate... Misunderstandings happen all the time. I remember a couple of decades ago. I was managing a company that cleaned up homes to get them ready for sale. It was shocking the amount of work we got and it was hard to keep up and stay on schedule but the business was pulling in the cash. I had a full crew and I had just hired a new guy who been in America for about a week... He had just moved here from the Hunan Province in China. I don't recall his first name but we all just called him by his last name Chang. Chang didn't know much about the work we did so I gave him a gopher job. He would keep the crew moving by going for things they needed. On Chang's first day we had a couple of houses to clean up so I divided up the crew and Chang and I went with the first crew. Everything was normal... Routine with the house except for this fairly large sandpile in the corner of the yard. I told the crew that we had to get the house finished and that sandpile cleared by the end of the day and I looked at Chang and said "You know your job right...You are in charge of supplies". To make sure I said "do you understand... You are in charge of supplies". He nodded and said "yes". I told the crew I was heading over to the other house and I'd be back at the end of the day. When I got back late in the afternoon... the house was in great shape but the sand pile was still sitting there and the guys were just kinda hanging around doing nothing. "I said what's the deal with the flipping sandpile. That thing has to be cleared... We are really behind schedule now". They told me that Chang was supposed to bring back shovels and he left to handle the supplies over an hour ago and he hadn't come back. I wasn't sure what to do immediately so I walked over to the sand pile with the crew following behind me. When I got to the sand pile. Chang jumped out from behind it and yelled "SUPPLIES"!!!

DTRE BYRWRQ!!! I could have typed the answer better if you allowed more time.

http://districtondeck.com/2012/11/30/the-john-lannan-decision-whats-5-million-worth/ Nats blogger predicts that Lannan signs with the Twins. Cheap option as a back-rotation guy. If he passes the physical, low-risk positive move. Then we can pretend that we traded Span for Meyer AND Lannan. That should make some people happier with the trade. Lol... That's funny. Seriously... The Twins obviously didn't want to pay the 5 million or so that Lannan would have gotten. Neither did the Nats. Cuz he would have been any easy throw in otherwise with the Nats tossing him aside... It'll be interesting to see what he ends up signing for.

Well... I don't like that surgery bit at all. Ben has gently changed my opinion in a big way. I'm now a no to Jurrjens,

Yep... Even if the call cost a dime.

I wouldn't argue your points... Revere has weaknesses and so does Span... And they both have strengths. I think we can all agree that I'm a Revere supporter. Keep in mind that I'm also a Span supporter and I think worrying about whose better between Span and Revere is crazy and doesn't really matter. Revere is as good as they come in the outfield when it comes to going and getting it. Span is as good as they come when it comes to plate discipline. Niether has a decent arm. One Guy hits more doubles. One Guy Steals More bases. One guy is more experienced and one guy is less expensive. If I had to pick between them to win right now with a gun to my head... I'd choose Span but not by a bunch. If I had to pick a player to win later.. I'd pick Revere but not by a bunch. These are my opinions and I understand that they don't reflect everybody. For 2012... I really liked them both in the OF together. For 2013, 2014, 2015... I really want pitching... I would have traded Span and I'd move Revere as well if the right offer came along. I like em both... I will miss Span and the full weight of my support is behind Revere and I don't worry about him in CF at all. I'm going to enjoy him while he has a starting job because he's good baseball.

The concept of bad data in is not the issue. Chief claimed wrongly that the data was "inaccurate" in small samples. The problem in small samples is not accuracy, but in the ability to draw conclusions from it. In other words, the data is not inaccurate - it is inconclusive. If someone landed on this planet for the first time and met one person in the middle of the desert who had their arm amputated, they might decide that the entire human race has one arm from that experience. Their conclusion was inaccurate because they based it off of a sample size too small to draw larger conclusions. If that same alien waited 20 more people, 100 more, or 500 more - with an increasing degree of accuracy they could make a correct conclusion. This is a fundamental, elementary statistical concept. That anyone could mistake inconclusive = inaccurate should tell them they should find another topic to debate in. At least until they're done with Stats for Dummies, much less 101. Yeah I read that... I paraphrased for him and felt that he was trying to express that the data sucked. It may have been my own spin.

It Depends... If the process of watching every game is sitting down and marking a zone and calculating data inside zone... You are not watching much at all. Because Defense is a lot more than simply reaching a ball at X Spot. Now if someone eyeballing a player watches one or two games and says... I've got this guy figured out... He isn't watching much at all either. But How About a Manager who watches all 162 games. Who's more valuable... The Coach or guy in front of the screen watching zones. Just to show I'm not firmly on any side here... The Tricky thing with eyeballing a player and treating that as gospel... Well that isn't an exact science either because I'm willing to bet that a Manager and a 3rd base coach on the same team can watch a player for 162 games and both come up with different conclusions about said player. It's the beautiful thing about baseball... It can be explained to an extent by stats. It can be explained to an extent by plain ole gut feelings on a guy and those intersections will contradict often. The only thing I would ever warn against... Is using either as gospel. Draw your own conclusions is what I do. I use stats and I use the eyeball and I read alot and I filter. AND... I'm wrong as often as anybody else. It's a beautiful game.

LOL... C'mon CDog... With that Swing... He will be stroking it until he's 60 and his contract does last until 2044.

If it was my call... Mauer would bat 2nd and I would never worry about it again.

I like Ben and I wouldn't extend him at this time.

Hanson just didn't look the same this year. Velocity down and ERA up. The Angels have never seemed comfortable with Walden despite the rocket on his shoulder and that probably has to do with his results thus far. It looks like two teams have exchanged players that they are not comfortable with.

This post is nearly perfect. The only thing I disagree with... I don't recall ever seeing Valencia make a great play. At least... not as often as I see others make a great play... Everything else is spot on. This discussion is a case of everyone being kinda right. A big part of my job is stats and one advantage I have over a lot of people who are looking at the same stats is recognizing conclusions based on bad or insufficient data. Others will take the flawed data and let it lead them in the wrong direction. I believe I'm able to toss out the bad stuff, UZR is just plain bad data. It's based on typical zones and they are assigned to a position. It doesn't take into account that players don't play in the same spot batter to batter. This is just one thing in the many shades of defense that help keep runs off the board. Failing to get that out keeps your defense on the field and the damage can be 5 or 6 runs or it can be nothing if the next batter is simply retired. Chief is right... You can put as much bad data together and increase the sample size... It's still bad data and the result will be flawed... Brock is right... Increasing the sample size will stabilize the result and make it more reliable. If you study jackknife replication... You understand that results will replicate at a certain point. One thing to always keep in mind with baseball metrics... Including offensive metrics. The data is constantly changing. Player improve... Players get worse. They get hot... They get cold... The length of the hotness and coldness goes up and down. Sample Size only matters if the data is consistent. There is nothing consistent about baseball. Baseball Stats are great... Baseball Stats are valuable but there is some bogus stuff out there and making it gospel will ultimately be a mistake. Combo the stats with your eyes and you have a better chance at a solid conclusion. Defensive metrics will get better because smart people are working on it but if the result rendered today says that Valencia is a defensive friend of the pitchers. It's bad data leading to a bad result. This post from tmerrickkeller says it perfectly... Just watch Valencia play defense.

It's because players like Revere tend to have short careers that end brutally. I'm not against Revere as a stopgap; what I'm against is having him through his late 20s and then paying him a bunch of money just as he falls on his face (see Figgins, Chone). The Twins can keep Revere for a year or two but if they're smart, they'll ditch him the moment his value is high and they have someone else to play the position. They might do that but not today... We got OF'ers on the way... Ben can hear the footsteps behind him. Until then... We are lucky to have him. He's not a problem on this squad at all. The only way you can make him be a problem is by wishing he has a Ryan Braun skill set. That isn't fair... And wishing he has a Billy Hamilton skill set is comical cuz he does.

Quick Question for all... Can anybody think of a player that hasn't been drug threw the mud on this website. I believe every single Twins Player has been tarnished in some way by the posters on this site. Mauer... Too Big A Contract... not enough Power... Too tall for Catcher. Morneau... Concussions... Best days are behind him... Too Big a Contract. Carroll... Too Old... Too Light Hitting. Florimon... Can't make the routine play consistenly... Cast off by other teams... Can't hit... Plouffe... one good month... Can't field... Inconsistent throws... Poor Plate discipline... Willingham... Career year... Too Old and will obviously regress... Strikes out too much... no range in the OF... Span... No Power... Weak Arm... Injury Prone... Revere... no Power... Slap Hitting... Weak Arm... I don't need to go on... Everyone can surely recognize this stuff... We've been reading it... Everyone of these weaknesses is played up like it's costing us the championship and we can't win until someone else is brought in. My Point is that the perfect players are very few and they make a ton of money or they will very soon. As soon as they make a ton of money... That becomes a negative and they will be tossed under the bus like everyone else. The Twins have flaws and so does every other team.

I will never understand it... There are people who seem to hate (maybe too strong a word) Revere but love Billy Hamilton. Revere has things to work on... But he can play. If Hicks is what people say he is. When he arrives... The OF pairing of Hicks and Revere will be a thing of a beauty. With the Pitching staff that we had in 2012. Span in Between Parmelee and Willingham or Doumit and Willingham would have been terrible. If Arcia and Hicks come up this year and out play Ben. Great for us... Until they do... It's Ben's Job and he earned it. I will never understand why Ben is a problem. Trading Span we took a step back in Outfield defense... But the step back is only for awhile cuz Hicks is knocking on the door. When Hicks arrives... Our OF will be stronger... If Hicks is what people say he is... Meanwhile we gained a high ceiling Pitcher who could "God Willing" help us shore up the biggest organizational problem period. Maybe not now but Soon enough. Meyer is 22 and there is nothing above him to block him from advancing quickly. All he has to do is Pitch like some people think he can. I'll never understand the Revere fear that exists with some on this board.

Let's not get lost in the plight of the Royals and say this rebuilding thing is garbage. Can any of the "Royals example people" say that we don't want the products of the Royals Farm. Would you disapointed if Perez showed up in a Twins uniform... Hosmer, Moose, Butler, Gordon are fine examples of a thriving farm system. We'd love to have Colon in our system. Even with our outfield Glut... We'd love to have Wil Myers. The Royals have failed so far for a couple of reasons in my mind. A. Pitching... The Royals have never had a decent pitching staff during this entire run of bad luck. Who are the pitching prospects that have born fruit. Odorizzi, Montgomery, Lamb, Dwyer haven't arrived yet. The Majority of Arms from the Farm with the big club are bullpen guys. That's why they are talking about trading Wil Myers and names like Lester and Shields are popping up. If they acquire Lester or Shields... That's a product of the Farm System as well. B. Front Office... The Royals are overstocked on the Farm and the Front Office hasn't yet traded the excess for Major League Talent(PItching). It's one thing to stock your farm... It's another thing to not harvest it in the many ways that you can harvest it. C. The Royals can hit... They can't pitch... Playing from behind sucks... No Vibe yet with the club when you are playing from behind. Don't think for a second that the Royals can't be one of those teams that comes out of nowhere and surprises you. I won't be surprised when it happens... Others will but I won't. Like the Twins... They need Pitching and they need it bad. Acquiring pitching is how you fix it. I won't write them off and the Barbecue is great in Kansas City BTW. Also... If you are going to use the Royals as an example... Please try to consider using the Rays as an example as well. It's only fair.

Benson would not land you anything close to Meyer, his value is about as low as it could be currently. Sure the Twins could have maybe traded Hicks for Meyer, but it would have been a mistake. As nice as 3 years of Span would be, 6+ years of Hicks (for even cheaper overall) is the superior choice to keep for a rebuilding team like the Twins. It should be noted that Hicks has a greater upside then Span had/has as he is a better fielder, has more speed on the basepaths, has more power, has a better arm and a better eye at the plate. The main question with Hicks at this point is will he be able to continue to hit for averag and continue to increase his power. Vodkadave... You should also mention that the Nationals would rather have Span right now because Span will be of more use in 2013. I mean that is probably true, but I'm not sure the Nats would have told the Twins "we have no interest in Hicks". There is a decent to good chance that Hicks can contribute in 2013 and even though the Nats are set up very nicely for 2013, they are set up even more nicely for 2014-2015.I I guess what I am saying is it wouldn't have killed the Nats to bring in Hicks and keep Harper in CF for another half season. I'm just personally glad the Twins traded Span rather then Hicks. The point is moot as the Nats already have their own Hicks in Brian Goodwin. Span has just become his placeholder. Goodwin is a nice prospect, but lets not say he is "their Hicks" he has exactly 100 games in his professional career and struggled quite a bit in AA. Hicks is a easily a superior prospect to Goodwin at this time, ntm Goodwin still might be a corner OF instead of a CF anyways. Let's go to the "source", the guy we all agree has it right on Meyer, John Sickels: http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/7/2/3130761/top-120-prospect-list-for-2012-midseason-revision-update John Sickels Top 120 Prospects (2012 Mid-season Updated Edition) #12 Miguel Sano (MN Twins) #45 Eddie Rosario (Mn Twins) #64. Oswaldo Arcia (MN Twins) #65 Brian Goodwin (Wa Nats) #74 Alex Meyer (Mn Twins) #120----------- Players under consideration who didn't make the top 120 Aaron Hicks (MN Twins) The argument has gone from Span/Meyer to Hicks/Goodwin and when I wake up tomorrow morning It will probably move furthur down the line into calculating electron cloud shapes.

Benson would not land you anything close to Meyer, his value is about as low as it could be currently. Sure the Twins could have maybe traded Hicks for Meyer, but it would have been a mistake. As nice as 3 years of Span would be, 6+ years of Hicks (for even cheaper overall) is the superior choice to keep for a rebuilding team like the Twins. It should be noted that Hicks has a greater upside then Span had/has as he is a better fielder, has more speed on the basepaths, has more power, has a better arm and a better eye at the plate. The main question with Hicks at this point is will he be able to continue to hit for averag and continue to increase his power. Vodkadave... You should also mention that the Nationals would rather have Span right now because Span will be of more use in 2013.

Laughing out loud... If anyone has any doubt about how difficult it is to be a GM in the court of public opinion. Read this thread and then read almost any thread on this website. I'm sure everyone realizes that we have disagreements between multiple posters on just about every topic. Now imagine trying to be that GM who everyone is going to love. No matter what he decides to do. Someone is guarenteed to piss all over it. If anyone hates Terry Ryan... That's OK I Guess... But please understand that if you were the GM... Someone is going to hate you to. You can't please everyone.

It all depends on what you get. I'd love to see Willingham in a Twins Uniform for the duration of his contract. However, If Willingham is on pace for 30 plus homers again this year at the trade deadline. Wouldn't that increase his value? If the Twins are in it... We will want that bat in our lineup... If we are not in it... We would love to see the increase in value for a trade in the future. We have people who worry that Willingham is going to regress... I understand that worry and it sure would suck but what if he doesn't regress. I'd trade him now if we got some nice pitching in return but if it isn't enough... Let's let him swing the bat here and see what happens maybe it gets better.

If anything suggests that Valencia is good defensively... It is wrong!

If Arcia and Hicks pan out... The Situation is going to get crowded real quick and that's Ok. Tis the nature of the business. I'll always be a Revere Fan and he can play for my team any day but if Arcia and Hicks out play him. He can play on my team in a different role and it's ok. I think he will slump and get hot like everyone else but I do believe that he will keep it up.. I believe BABIP isn't so much of a luck stat... There is always luck in baseball but I think BABIP is more influenced by the type of contact you are making. When you are swinging well... You sqaure on the ball better and you find more holes. In Ben's case... His speed in theory(Snepp... I said in theory)... should be an uptick in BABIP cuz he can just out run some stuff that other's can't. I won't say that Ben will be a power hitter but I'm pretty certain that he was drafted in the 1st round because he has or had some pop. It doesn't matter how fast you are. No scout or regional scout or MLB front office is going to say... Yeah let's take this guy with no power and no arm in the first round because he's really fast. He was showing something else in high school. I think there has to be very little doubt about that. Ben had more homers (9) in High School than Buxton(3). Parmelee hit 11. Don't misunderstand me... High School is different and now he has wood in his hands. I'm not saying that Ben will become Kirby Puckett but there is no way that I'm going to bet against him eventually clearing the wall in the future or at the least finding some more gaps. Some Power will come. As for the Hamstring... Yeah... If Ben loses his Speed. He loses the majority of his value. Just like.. I lose my value when my keyboard breaks.