Riverbrian

He's not gonna sniff 3.50...no way...it'll be a miracle if he's in the low 4.00. Bill James projects 4.09 in 2013. yeah' date=' James is my boy...but that's wacky. He's not going to come to the AL, face DHs instead of pitchers, not strike anyone out, count on OUR defense, and get an ERA that low. A miracle.[/quote] I'm a huge Bill James Fan... When he started doing his thing... He had the balls to keep doing it in the face of everyone telling him it was garbage... It didn't stop him and look what happened... He changed baseball. However... Bill still hasn't figured out how to project with absolute certainly so we can take it with a grain of salt.

To me it does... To most... They will just say they are both crappy and hope that we pick up Greinke. Seems to me most would be happy if we managed to get Marcum and/or Jackson... Me included... However... Marcum and Jackson were not overwhelmingly better stat wise in 2012.

He's not gonna sniff 3.50...no way...it'll be a miracle if he's in the low 4.00. Bill James projects 4.09 in 2013.

To me it does... To most... They will just say they are both crappy and hope that we pick up Greinke.

Snepp... Snepp... It was directed at those who are comparing him to Blackburm.... That's embellishment!!!

Than Why all the screaming?

The Marquis comparison isn't a bad one. Correia and Marquis are basically the same guy. Right-handed, soft-tossers with marginal control, don't miss bats, keep just over 50% of balls on the ground. With that said, Correia will probably not be as bad as Marquis in Minnesota. Marquis will also not be as good as he was in San Diego. The Marquis signing was "meh" at the time for me. I didn't like him as a pitcher but given the money left to JR at that point, I didn't fault him for trying. Marquis obviously had issues while in Minnesota because he completely imploded... but even if he had pitched similar to his 2011 line, he wasn't going to be very good and probably would have been a below average pitcher. I expect Correia to be that pitcher in 2013. Below average, declining, but not a complete implosion a la Marquis. And that still makes this two year (!) deal a mistake. I expect Correia to be a complete and utter disaster. Consider this: 2012 was his best season in the last 3 years. He posted an ERA+ of88. I don't see an ERA+ of 88 as good. He doesn't strike anybody out, instead relying on defense to do the job behind him. That's not gonna work out well. I won't argue projection. He could be anything from 3.50 to 12.00... If he has a similiar season to 2012... I'll be happy with that and the 5 million won't bug me at all.

Blackburn gave up 81 runs in 2012... Correia gave up 80 and Marquis gave up 74 in 127.2 innings between Minnesota and San Diego. Blackburn pitched 98.2 innings and Correia threw 171 innings. If posters want to cry Blackburn with this signing... Please don't ignore the 72.1 innings of shutout ball in comparison between the two... In Comparison... Thats quite the difference. Good for Correia that he wasn't capable of the other worldly and historically colossal decrepitude that Nick Blackburn is. For a metaphorical visual of that comparison, a 4 looks a lot sexier when standing next to a 1....and yet it's still a 4. Yeah... That's kinda my point... But we have posters here who are calling this signing Blackburn esque. I was pointing out that... that is embellishment at a fairly large degree.

Thank You Puck... Terry Ryan once ran directly at a Mountain Lion that had me cornered. I've had his back ever since. Seriously... This ain't so much defense of TR... It's more like balance... Correia is being over cooked here. I've spent a lot of time on this site and I appreciate all the posters but I've detected a slight glimpse of embellishment and emotion from time to time. Or maybe that's just me.

The Marquis comparison isn't a bad one. Correia and Marquis are basically the same guy. Right-handed, soft-tossers with marginal control, don't miss bats, keep just over 50% of balls on the ground. With that said, Correia will probably not be as bad as Marquis in Minnesota. Marquis will also not be as good as he was in San Diego. The Marquis signing was "meh" at the time for me. I didn't like him as a pitcher but given the money left to JR at that point, I didn't fault him for trying. Marquis obviously had issues while in Minnesota because he completely imploded... but even if he had pitched similar to his 2011 line, he wasn't going to be very good and probably would have been a below average pitcher. I expect Correia to be that pitcher in 2013. Below average, declining, but not a complete implosion a la Marquis. And that still makes this two year (!) deal a mistake. I won't project Correia in 2013. Won't even try. But I gotta tell ya... The more I look at his 2012 numbers... They don't scream terrible... Its Twins Daily that is screaming terrible... The numbers scream average... And if he can just keep us in games at the same percentage he did last year with the Pirates. We can then start to find out if our position players have any fight in them. Lets get some more arms... I'm ready for the next one... And I love reading the reactions.

yeah... The Ol' QS... A pretty good indicator of keeping your team in the game in my opinion. Good call... QS% Correia .571 Cherry picking this stat makes him look fairly affective. Marcum is also at .57... So is Worley. Greinke is at .59... That means two out five starts were not quality. Greinke 20 quality starts out of 34. 14 Starts that he couldnt get thru 6 innings of work without giving up 3 runs or less... This is the guy that everyone wants at 25 million per? Yet Correia... Gave his team a chance to win at an equal percentage and he is crucified. Pitchers with a lower QS% in 2012 Hellickson...Wainwright... T.Hudson... Minor... Free Agent Edwin Jackson... Masterson... Latos... Lester... Haren... Buchholz... Matt Moore... Tommy Hanson... Lincecum... Based on 100 IP minimum... Correia is tied for 60th... 30 teams in MLB... The more I look into this... I could end up... Actually liking this signing. Chief... Marquis had two quality starts in Minnesota,.. So yeah... I guess Marquis had a couple.

Therein lies the problem. The Twins might not have one stand-out defender on the field this year, having just dealt away their two best gloves. In my mind... This is a much more legitimate argument.

Jeez Brock... Marquis strikes out more hitters than Correia does. Surely you can see that. To everyone... These Marquis and Blackburn comparisons are a little over the top. Blackburn gave up 81 runs in 2012... Correia gave up 80 and Marquis gave up 74 in 127.2 innings between Minnesota and San Diego. Blackburn pitched 98.2 innings and Correia threw 171 innings. If posters want to cry Blackburn with this signing... Please don't ignore the 72.1 innings of shutout ball in comparison between the two... In Comparison... Thats quite the difference. Comparing with Marquis... I find it hard to compare Marquis in Minnesota with Marquis in San Diego. This mob will continue to mob... It's how it works... I get that and reading the responses has been fun.

I agree... I've always said that the fastest way to improve ERA's is to put a bunch of guys out there behind the pitcher who get to balls that most don't get to,

The majority of stats are all derived from the same basic information... Each different stat will simply add or takeaway from the same basic stats. Diamonds ERA was better than Correia in 2012... So it stands to reason that it would be better after it is adjusted for ballpark. Diamonds ERA was better based on 12 Earned runs over 170 innings.

This is very well-reasoned, and I appreciate that amid all of the negative hyperbole. Btw, I'm not going to defend the signing either. I think the second year is pretty ridiculous. But when we're constantly ripping on the GM for not just going out and throwing money at pitchers, and then ripping on him for throwing money at a pitcher, things seem a little skewed to me. In any case, I can't see how this makes the Twins better. But I can't see how it would make them worse either. And given the circumstances, I find that to be an important distinction, seeing as Blackburn, Walters, Deduno, and Devries would indeed make the team worse. Maybe this is what it costs to tread water in this free agency year? The second year was the part that concerned me as well... However... Without direct knowledge of the negotiation, or direct knowledge of all negotiations... I can't make any assumptions on why. The one thing that I assume quite comfortably was that TR didn't say... "Kevin... Here's an extra year for the hell of it". I'm glad you see the no win situation Our GM and all GM's are put in. I had no doubt that you woud see that... You've always been balanced in the majority of your posts. I enjoy reading them.

A. I'm not really defending the signing... He wouldn't have been my first choice but I really don't know that TR signing Correia First necessarily means that he was TR's first choice either. B. My post wasn't meant to slam Diamond or directly cause a comparison between the two. Comparing players is impossible. I just wanted to point out that the difference between Diamond and Correia when it comes to numbers in 2012 are very similiar. C. Similiar numbers simply points out that it's possible that we are losing our minds a little here. D. I'm as shocked by the salary as anyone but the market is the market and we have little control over that... Much like we can't control the price of gas. E. Age is why he's making 5 Million and Diamond is making 500,000. That's the way baseball is structured. If Diamond was eligible for FA... The salary for Diamond would change... It's really a non-point to make. F. Fielding Independant Stats will always be tough on pitchers with low K-Rates. G. The Difference in ERA between the two over 170 Innings is 12 earned runs. A lot of factors can make up the difference in 12 runs over the year. One Ben Revere catch at the right time... Can save you 4 earned runs in a single inning. It isn't worth wringing your hands over. H. Next year... Correia could be at 4.05 and Diamond could be at 4.35... Things change. I. I'm not defending the signing... He wouldn't have been my first choice but the Blackburn and Marquis comparisons are a bit much. Blackburn and Marquis had ERA's over 8 for the Twins in 2012. J. LOL... I'm sure your torches are still lit.

Yes, but Scott Diamond (the top pitcher on your list) conceivably could -- should -- improve Oh My... That didn't take long to get two different projections on Diamond.

Here are the stats of 2 Pitchers from the 2012 season: W L ERA G GS IP H R ER HR BB S0 AVG. WHIP 12 9 3.54 27 27 173.0 184 76 68 17 31 90 .274 1.24 12 11 4.21 32 28 171.0 176 89 80 20 46 89 .267 1.30 One of these Pitchers we seem to like and the other pitcher is causing a negative reaction from Twins Daily Posters and the usually sensible Twins Daily management as well. Just wanted to point this out... Everyone can go back to lighting your torches and throwing stones.

I wish I had a Torch, Pitchfork and Noose store. I could make some cash with this crowd... TR and Kevin may need a strong Sheriff to hold you guys back or someone like Scout in "To Kill a Mockingbird". He wouldn't have been my first choice and I still have sticker shock but I've seen him pitch a few times and he's got a tough side to him. I remember thinking that he reminded me of Pavano... 2009/2010 Pavano that is. I remember Correia blanking the Twins this summer for 4 or 5 innings... Terry may remember that blanking as well... I think he out dueled Diamond that game but I could be wrong. Put the pitchforks down. It's gonna be alright. However... I do admit... That Baker signing with Chicago... Looks amazing right now.

Bingo! If there's a team that has starting pitching depth that might look to make a deal to save money, it's the Royals... and the price increases (or it should) when trading within the division... so realistically, the Twins are left in the cold here too (twice!). And honestly, the Twins are looking for stopgap-type guys to bridge the gap to the young'ns... take a fliar on a younger-ish guy coming off a down year (Jurrjens/Lannan) or a guy looking to pitch in a different role (Villanueva or Myers - if you're ok with an older guy), just to see if he could help out in a couple years when the team is looking to compete. If the Dodgers were looking to give Capuano away, great... but I think they'd be more willing to give TR a couple million just to hang up. (Cause it's obvious "millions" isn't a big deal to them.) I agree... The Dodgers won't give away Starters... and the MLB Needs that they have... Well.. They don't have many... Catcher... 2B... and Bullpen... Mainly a lefty in the Bullpen. But... I think it would be crazy to hang on to that much pitching... Kershaw, Grienke, Beckett, Ryu, Billingsley.. Plus Lilly, Capauano and Harang. You'd figure that two of them will have to be moved. Wouldn't Perkins be near the top of the list of Bullpen Lefties? I certainly don't see Perkins as a giveaway. I don't know what's possible... Just seems like a match.

Me? Personally... I was all for the rebuild but I waver back and forth on it... However, TR doesn't seem to be hell bent on rebuilding... I think he's trying to both and if he is... He's got to address 2013 Pitching and Worley isn't enough. This trade would be clearly for 2013 and 2014 if the options are picked up. When I look at 2013... The pitching staff still needs addressing. The Free Agent names being tossed around for the Twins are questionable but we do need them. Capuano for possibly two years makes more sense than Lannan for a year. After Diamond... Worley is the only addition thus far and that gives us 2. Capuano and Harang are better than the names being discussed... Bringing in a couple starters from LA would bring us up to 4. Gibson would Make 5 eventually. I think Pelfrey and Myers would give us 6 and 7... One guy could work in the pen. DeVries and Deduno would be 8 and 9 at Rochester... And then I'm looking at the rotation and saying... Not Amazing but we have some arms that can keep us in ball games and some depth when the injuies happen. If we are kept in ball games. We will find out what kind of position players we really have... Our offense isn't Texas Rangers like but it isn't bad even after the Span/Revere deals. I'm not sure the Orioles are laughing at our offense for example. It's comparable. Things can happen if Pitching can keep you in. I'm all for picking up Zach Lee and moving it all down the line... I just don't believe the Dodgers would do that. They are thin on the farm. They are loading up at the MLB Level and I don't think they want to weaken the Farm when they have MLB Depth for trade options... Where they are not thin is MLB Starting pitching so therefore a trade for it would be reasonable. I'm sure they are trying to trade it. It makes sense. That's the reason I think it's a match. We are beyond thin for 2013 Starting pitching and Perkins would be someone that should interest them. I could be convinced to punt 2013... Unless there is something like this. Which seems to make some sense. We would just have to find a new closer... The Market for closers has been soft and we would have money to address it after this trade. There are just my thoughts... Nothing more... Nothing Less... To answer your first question... I'm not sure... I guess as long as Willingham, Doumit, Mauer and Morneau are on the roster... It looks like they want to win in 2013.

The bottle? :-) I did that... I'm a happy drunk... It only raised my sunny disposition.

Hmmm. Okay Its not that hard to do... I'm able to read stats and scouting reports. The majority of scouting reports that I read come from sources outside the organization. It's really easy for me to place faith in Twins talent evaluators who work and watch the players everyday. They have much much more information than anything I can cobble together. Have they made mistakes... Yes... A bunch of them... So has every other organization. I'm just not comfortable making definitive statements with the amount of knowledge that I have and if I can't place faith in our staff... Where can I turn?

I will place my faith in Gardy and TR. If Hicks opens the season... I'd understand... If he is delayed for the Arb Clock... I'd understand. Benson... Has to turn it around a little in the minors first. In my opinion. A opinion based on very little eyeballing.