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LaBombo

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Everything posted by LaBombo

  1. LaBombo
    Maybe I misunderstood, that's my feeling as well.
  2. LaBombo
    That's understandable, but it doesn't change the fact that discarding Worley primarily because there were no relief or start innings to be had without blocking a more valuable prospect in one of the most pitching-starved organizations in baseball doesn't make any sense.
  3. LaBombo
    Gibson is the more valuable pitcher, didn't mean to suggest otherwise. And yes, he was infinitely better than Worley at AAA. But Worley was also coming back from surgery, albeit less serious though also much sooner. Agree Gibson isn't a very strong comp with Worley, but that difference is relatively microscopic compared to the difference in their valuation by the Twins, ie. rotation spot vs. zero. So forget Gibson if you prefer, and instead think of the greater slack granted at some point in their careers to most of the seven(!) other non-KC/MP starters used by the Twins besides Worley and Gibson. In the absence of a red flag intangible/off-field issues, it looks like a pretty quick hook for an organization that, even with the Nolasco/Hughes signings and the likely rapid ascent of Meyer, continues to suffer from a dearth, not glut, of good starting pitchers and prospects.
  4. LaBombo
    Fangraphs already ranks you among the top ten TD game thread creators. http://i1.ytimg.com/vi/0iAezyDzj0M/hqdefault.jpg Well done.
  5. LaBombo
    Then he's in the bullpen, where he either flourishes or waits for one of those guys to get hurt or promoted, which is almost certainly going to happen.
  6. LaBombo
    Other pitchers with less potential, let alone far less actual success in the majors, have been given more chances by the Twins to prove themselves than Worley was. Good heavens, Kyle Gibson is the same age as Worley, has never succeeded in the majors, was terrible with the Twins last year... and he's been awarded the Twins' only open rotation spot. Also, doesn't it seem like there's almost no chance that Rochester doesn't rely on at least one pitcher this season who is the very definition of a non-prospect?
  7. LaBombo
    Bill James identified three kinds of position players who tend to flame out suddenly in their early 30's: Ones whose value is concentrated in just one or two skills, ones who had an "old man" skill set profile in their latter or even mid 20's (power and walks, no speed, limited range). Is there anything on that list that doesn't describe Kubel?
  8. LaBombo
    http://makeameme.org/media/created/These-are-troubling.jpg
  9. LaBombo
    http://legendscasino.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/08.jpeg Your check is already in the mail.
  10. LaBombo
    This thread should be re-titled 'Punch in the face or kick in the wiener?'. And if either guy has any bearing on Arcia being sent down, then my guess is that the answer is 'both'.
  11. LaBombo
    James didn't refine it to guesstimate the percentages of those guys whose zombie value ceiling is in middle relief vs. starting or high leverage relief. Would guess they tend more toward the former. But if that's so, would just make it more puzzling why they didn't give VW a shot in that role. Fwiw, although Worley has apparently insisted he's healthy, Gleeman pointed out that it's pretty odd for a pitcher his age to lose effectiveness so dramatically without an injury eventually turning up.
  12. LaBombo
    He wasn't on the 40. That's what the waiver thing was about. As for surprise, how about that he was only 26 and was coming off an injury more serious than everyone was willing to cut Hicks slack for in AAA? Or that even after last year's clunker he still has a higher career WAR average than either Pelfrey or Correia, and a higher career WAR total than the other eight 2013 starters combined?
  13. LaBombo
    Any amount of improvement matters if it comes from players who will still be contributing when the team returns to contention. If it comes from bouncebacks by Willi, Kubel, and the like, it will be almost completely meaningless to me unless it leads to a flip for a prospect of some stripe. Should sell more tickets though. But how will they spend the revenue? Oops. Threadjack.
  14. LaBombo
    If anyone can even imagine an explanation for counting on Hicks as the Opening Day CF while demoting Arcia I'm dying to hear it, because those two decisions together appear utterly indefensible to me, even for an organization that's made plenty of questionable moves the past few years.
  15. LaBombo
    Bill James once said that at any given time, about a tenth of the pitchers in baseball had been "left for dead" at some point in their careers, if I remember right. Worley is only 26 and has had major league success, so he'll get more than one chance, and probably as a starter at some point since he's probably headed back to AAA. What's surprising to me isn't that the Twins gave up on him, it's that they did it without any effort to experiment with using him in middle relief
  16. LaBombo
    Presley? All right. I'll bite. Who's going to play center in the apparently unthinkable scenario where the guy who hit .192 in the majors and .222 in the minors last year doesn't hit well again this year and Mastro gets hurt. Sounds crazy that both things could happen in same year, but if it did, you'd hate to see the Twins have to do something equally crazy, like trade a veteran for a CF during a losing season just to maintain a little credibility on the field.
  17. LaBombo
    How often has any organization ever thrown in the towel on a 26 year old starter just one season removed from two good MLB seasons? He was very bad last year, but this certainly looks as though the Twins saw something negative in addition to the discouraging numbers.
  18. LaBombo
    One partial explanation is that it seems WAR values, for example, two starters who each throw 65 innings at a given level less than it values a single starter who pitches 130 (Drew Smyly) at the same level. My guess is Smyly gets credit simply for using up only one roster spot. In other words, and this an extreme example but maybe still valid, would you rather manage a rotation of five 200 inning starters or ten 100 inning starters of the same average ERA? My guess is that WAR probably favors the former as well and it shows in the projections. It any case it appears that WAR doesn't credit many pitchers who throw fewer than 100 innings with more than a few tenths of a point above replacement unless those innings are in mostly high-leverage situations. The projections sees the Rays getting well over 200 rotation innings from 6 pitchers fitting that description. The Tigers are projected to use only 3 of them and rely on them for fewer than half as many innings. Another possibility is that WAR thinks the Tigers higher K rate and the (I would guess) Rays superior defense and more pitcher-friendly park means that the Tigers staff will achieve that ERA with less help from their defense and home park and is therefore more valuable.
  19. LaBombo
    Stumble further ? They improved by 5 wins in 2013, so is that like falling up the stairs? Or do you mean some of the lesser projections for their 2014 based on offseason moves.
  20. LaBombo
    Just pretend there's no two behind the six. http://t2.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcS5GJ4Xf7bCtICr4KGPcW1RV5G9_5TrX1HDPfLSbRbBxb3BXFR9 My favorite recollection of Al's playing career was warmups before Game 6 of the '87 WS. They came back to Minny down 3 games to 2, and they looked tight and quiet going about their routines. Even the fans were quieter than before games 1 and 2. Then Newman grabbed the a BP screen to pull it off the infield, and it toppled over. Instead of getting out of the way, Newman let it fall on him and pretended to be trapped under it, arms and legs flailing. Puckett immediately jumped into the act as the would-be rescuer, and the other players got a good laugh out of it. Lightened the mood.
  21. LaBombo
    Had thought about bringing that up earlier, but decided it would make me an even worse fan...
  22. LaBombo
    Nowhere did I say anything about the odds of their failing, at least that I can remember. Just pointed out that if guys like Hicks, Arcia, and Gibson don't produce this year that the Twins shouldn't be counting on getting much from them in the future. Oddly enough, though I'm part of the bearish, 'bad fan' crowd, I consider Dozier's 2013 a success, and won't be terribly disappointed if he doesn't improve on it. And Pinto doesn't belong in the group of young players I was referring to either, because he didn't do anything last year to raise concerns about his future ceiling. He did just the opposite. As for the other three, Gibson pitched well in AAA and Arcia hit righthanders enough to have value in that role, so anticipating better seasons from them seems reasonable. Still not sure why people would feel more optimistic about Hicks this year compared to the start of last season; he gained valuable experience last year but looked bad doing it, so that seems like a wash at best to me.
  23. LaBombo
    http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_QqvfSFxx5rI/TVA0FnxIvOI/AAAAAAAAZok/TGFpDtp4x5E/s1600/05_OhStewardessIspeakjive.jpgOh, stewardess! I speak Blyleven!
  24. LaBombo
    I believe Bill James called it the Plexiglass Principle. Really good teams usually regress a bit, and really bad ones tend to improve. So they're not just due, they're overdue. And your 33 % fail rate looks about right. Yes, is bummer, dude. Maybe the Twins can make up for slow season ticket sales by cashing in on a Byron Buxton reality show or 24/7 webcam.
  25. LaBombo
    It's a discussion, not a poll, so there's more on the table than wins and losses, which the OP plainly stated when he said he didn't care if the Twins lose 120 games this year. My point, and his I think, was that in a losing season the actual number of losses is mostly secondary to what the franchise accomplishes in terms of improving itself. And in that respect, there is certainly reason to believe that 2014 could be a disappointing season compared to last year, since the lineup is comprised almost entirely of either guys over 30 or young players who, if they don't cut it this year, you need to start not counting on to be a part of the nucleus of a contender. In other words, 90 losses in 2014 and more, rather than fewer, concerns about the core of the future is definitely a worse season than 2013. Also, while it's clearly relevant within this thread to compare the 2014 rotation to its predecessor, it's also setting the bar so low as to be almost without worth as an evaluation or even a discussion. A broader and more useful perspective on where the rotation stands would be that the 2013 rotation featured zero starters who would make the cut for the Tigers rotation. The Twins (by their standards) spent free agent pitcher money like drunken sailors in the offseason while the Tigers traded away Doug Fister. The net result is that the Twins 2014 rotation again features zero starters who would make the Tigers rotation.
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