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twinbythebay

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Everything posted by twinbythebay

  1. twinbythebay
    You may very well be right. Bust as the Al Davis mantra goes... "Just Win Baby!" If the Twins make the right moves that lead to a culture of winning and competing for championships (NOT just division titles) consistently, then I don't think they'll have any issues attracting and retaining talent. In my personal opinion, I would put much higher priority on locking up Buxton and Berrios in the next year rather than Rosario.
  2. twinbythebay
    What are we all on here for, if not to complain about the team? I understand, the negativity can be a bit much sometimes, but I, for one, really enjoy discussing and debating what the Twins could/should do to improve and win another g*damn World Series. I think this site would be incredibly boring if everyone was just a Twins cheerleader and never questioned what the team was doing or offered suggestions for improvement.
  3. twinbythebay
    A lot of the focus on Rosario has to do with his contract situation. He was set to make $7.75 million this season (before the adjustment for the shortened season), and next year is his last year of arbitration, where he will likely be owed $8 million or more. Mitch Garver was only due $620,000 this season, and will enter arbitration for the first time next season. I don't know all that much about how arbitration works, but I don't think he'll be owed nearly as much as Eddie. Berrios was set to make just over $4 million this season, which was his first year of arbitration, and Sano is locked up under contract through 2023. Like it or not, this stuff is a part of the equation around whether or not a player should be kept around or sent packing. He is most likely a better player than Rooker, Kiriloff, or Larnach right now, but he's also making over 10 times what those guys would be making next season. If the Twins decide that really like Rosario and want to keep him around, then they'll pay him that money, but you have to weigh the cost against his benefits and decide whether or not that money would be better spent making upgrades elsewhere on the roster. Like I said before, I don't hate Rosario, and he can be fun to watch. But I want the Twins to spend wisely (since we've seen that they don't always spend as much as they should), and if the team would be improved by spending that money elsewhere, then I hope that's what they do.
  4. twinbythebay
    Yeah, Aaron Gleeman has said that it's the type of injury that will probably require some sort of surgical cleanup in the offseason, but since there's not a lot of risk of him injuring it further, it's something he can play through until then. It's just a matter of how painful it is for him and whether or not it affects how he plays. Although his average and OBP are still pretty good this year, it seems like the injury has sapped most of his power, and it looks like it has hurt his range at 2B as well. I'm looking forward to a (hopefully) fully healthy Arraez returning next season and competing for a batting title.
  5. twinbythebay
    It's not Eddie Rosario. He's in a six-way tie for 4th place in outfield assists in 2020 with 4 (Alex Verdugo leads MLB with 7). In 2019, he was in a seven-way tie for 12th place in MLB with 8. In terms of UZR/150, which is a (admittedly imperfect) stat that uses data related to a fielder's range and arm, adjusted for external factors, Rosario graded out as the 7th worst outfielder in MLB in 2019 and 13th worst so far in 2020. This stat doesn't necessarily tell the whole story, as defensive ability is notoriously difficult to quantify, but it provides a more complete picture than simply looking at assists. The "eye test" of Rosario as a fielder differs wildly depending on who you ask, but by the numbers, Rosario has been well below average defensively for the past two seasons. I don't think most Twins fans "hate" Rosario, I certainly don't. He's incredibly fun to watch, but he's just as often incredibly frustrating. Setting all emotions aside, the statistics say that he's around a league average hitter, and below average defender, and guys like that just aren't that hard to replace at a much lower cost than what Rosario will be making next year.
  6. twinbythebay
    Thanks for this Matt, reading it transported my mind to the ballpark for at least a few fleeting minutes, which is what good writing should do. Now if you'll excuse me, I have the sudden urge to go pick up some brats and onions and throw them on the grill for lunch...
  7. twinbythebay
    I really wish Rocco had a quicker hook when Dobnak was melting down in the third inning, especially since he was pitching on three days of rest. They have two days off after today, so there was no reason for him not to use all of his best bullpen arms. After Pineda's great start yesterday and Dobnak's dud today, I don't think there's any question that the playoff rotation will be Maeda, Pineda, and Berrios (not necessarily in that order).
  8. twinbythebay
    You can use the Fangraphs Splits Leaderboard. It's incredibly useful, and you can slice and dice the stats in pretty much any way you could think of. You can look at it at an individual player level, team level, or league level. Here's a link that shows the performance of Twins hitters in 2020 with runners on base: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/splits-leaderboards?splitArr=203,58&splitArrPitch=&position=B&autoPt=false&splitTeams=false&statType=player&statgroup=2&startDate=2020-03-01&endDate=2020-11-01&players=&filter=&groupBy=season&sort=10,1 The only player who has had more plate appearances than Rosario with runners on base this season is Polanco, and to Rosario's credit, he has performed pretty well in those situations. He also has the most plate appearances on the team with runners in scoring position, and he led the team plate appearances in both of those categories in 2019 as well. This goes a long way in explaining how he has more RBI than guys like Cruz, Sano, or Kepler, who are indisputably better hitters.
  9. twinbythebay
    Just to clarify, that Baseball Savant screenshot indicates that Rosario strikes out much less than the average MLBer. He's actually very good at making contact, whether the ball is in the zone or not, it's just that he swings at so much crap out of the zone and it often results in weak contact, as indicated by his terrible Hard Hit Rate. It's fun when Eddie hits home runs off of pitches up at his chin level, but those swings much more often result in weak pop-ups.
  10. twinbythebay
    WAR is a comprehensive calculation that attempts to take a bunch of different statistics and combine them into one number to show a player's overall worth. It was developed by people much smarter than you or me, and it's pretty silly to just wave it away without knowing anything about it. Using batting average, home runs, and RBI as your primary evaluation of a player was outdated as of like 20 years ago. And it looks like you just made up a bunch of numbers to try to prove your point? If you're interested, you can read about fWAR here: https://library.fangraphs.com/misc/war/
  11. twinbythebay
    Yeah, it's a crappy situation, but this is a potential problem with the playoffs even in normal years. We often see Wild Card teams that finish with better records than a division winner, and they're forced to play in that play-in game. Honestly, I think the seeding matters much less than normal this season since there's no first round bye to play for. I wish they had figured out a way to somehow reward division winners more.
  12. twinbythebay
    Jeez, it seems like Twins opponents are using Twins pitchers for target practice this season...
  13. twinbythebay
    I actually think that this is the best argument for why they set up the seeding the way they did. While schedules are unbalanced between divisions in normal years, they are fully unbalanced this year since you only play against teams in one other division besides your own. Basing the seeding solely on winning % would punish teams that play in better divisions.
  14. twinbythebay
    Everything about the playoffs this season is ridiculous and unfair (for all of the teams that are actually good, at least). It's going to be funny when the Marlins knock the Dodgers out of the first round with a couple of fluky wins.
  15. twinbythebay
    Schildt is determined to give us this out, let's take it.
  16. twinbythebay
    Ah, well I admit that I didn't actually hear the Rooker call. I was just thinking in terms of the probability of each guy hitting a homer in a given at-bat.
  17. twinbythebay
    Damn, nice catch. Rooker is stinging the ball today.
  18. twinbythebay
    Ah yes, popping up the first pitch, outside the strike zone, after the pitcher just gave up a walk... I call that the Rosario special.
  19. twinbythebay
    So that's why they're called pews...
  20. twinbythebay
    I, for one, am very excited for all of the Twins chess jokes that we have coming over the next few years. It seems like an untapped but promising vein of humor.
  21. twinbythebay
    This is as good of an argument as any for letting Rosario walk next year. All of those guys would be making <10% of what Rosie would make.
  22. twinbythebay
    Damn... That's a far more impressive call than the Sano call. You're never really going out on much of a limb by calling a Sano HR in any given at-bat.
  23. twinbythebay
    I got sick of listening to Smalley so I muted them, did he call that one as well??
  24. twinbythebay
    I give you credit for not saying "mute point"
  25. twinbythebay
    Damn, I knew both of these guys had been around for awhile, but I didn't think either of them were that high on the list! And Clippard has never been on the DL/IL in his career either! They're both still incredibly effective as well. They've both got a ways to go to catch Twins favorites Eddie Guardado (908) and LaTroy Hawkins (1,042!)
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