twinbythebay
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Everything posted by twinbythebay
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"Kaepernick pledged to donate $1 million to "organizations working in oppressed communities." He donated $25,000 to the Mothers Against Police Brutality organization that was started by Collette Flanagan, whose son fell victim to police brutality. In 2018, Kaepernick announced that he would make the final $100,000 donation of his "Million Dollar Pledge" in the form of $10,000 donations to charities that would be matched by celebrities. Also in 2016, Kaepernick and his partner Nessa founded the "Know Your Rights Camp", an organization which held free seminars to disadvantaged youths to teach them about self-empowerment, American history, and legal rights." He did that stuff before his big Nike deal. He's walked the walk as much as any athlete out there, so you're welcome to your opinion that he's a "fraud", but that opinion simply isn't based in reality.
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I'm not presuming anything about your or your character, and I'm not trying to personally attack you. I apologize if I came off that way. But you're on here making the exact same judgments about Kaepernick's intentions that you're accusing me of making towards you, and the evidence just doesn't support that. Do you remember how long it was between the time he was cut and blackballed and the time when he got that Nike deal? Anyway, this is kinda off topic and it doesn't seem like we'll see eye to eye on it anyway. I think I've made the points that I wanted to make.
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This is a tired and false argument. Kaepernick has put his time and money where his mouth (and knee) is, and he's sacrificed more than almost any other professional athlete has for this cause. The idea that he did this for "publicity" is asinine, and I can tell that you've made your mind up about his intentions regardless of the evidence.
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It seems like there's an awful lot of unwarranted cynicism here regarding the players' actions and statements. I challenge you to watch the video of Dominic Smith's statement from yesterday and tell me that there aren't players who care and haven't been truly affected by this situation. https://www.mlb.com/news/dominic-smith-kneels-during-national-anthem
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I suspect that this is just a first step for many players, and there will be sacrifices of time and/or money from those who really do care deeply about these issues. There are probably many players who have already sacrificed their time and/or money for similar causes. That kind of sacrifice makes sense and helps to bring about change; I can't see what would be accomplished through silly punishments like forcing a team to forfeit and take an L.
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This is an apples to oranges comparison. I'm guessing you don't have a job that involves millions of people tuning in to watch you on TV every day. Professional athletes have a unique platform to raise awareness and affect change, and I think it's commendable that they're willing to use it for a cause that they believe is bigger than sports. I don't know what MLB would get by punishing players for this, besides lots of bad PR.
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CLE 6, MIN 3: Cleveland Gets To Romo, Takes Series
twinbythebay replied to Andrew Gebo's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I hear you. It's not that they shouldn't be playing hard and not trying to win, but they do need to be smart about it. It sucks losing to Cleveland, but I'd rather they let players get fully healthy and work out their kinks now instead of going all out to win a single regular season game. -
CLE 6, MIN 3: Cleveland Gets To Romo, Takes Series
twinbythebay replied to Andrew Gebo's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Yeah, it's a really weird season, and most teams (besides maybe the White Sox and Padres) are lamenting their offensive production. I don't think the Twins should put too much stock into winning the division this season. They just need to do what they can to get everyone healthy and as productive as possible by the end of September, so I'm not too discouraged by this series. The fact that every playoff team has to play a three game series in the first round, regardless of their regular season finish, just completely disincentivizes regular season wins. After all, I'd rather face a team like the Yankees or A's in a three game series than a seven game series. -
CLE 4, MIN 2: Cleveland Counterpunch
twinbythebay replied to Andrew Thares's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Rocco said that Clippard told him that he was available, but he never said he was considering using him. I'd much rather see Rocco give him a few days off to be sure he's alright instead of letting him pitch in a not very meaningful regular season game. -
CLE 4, MIN 2: Cleveland Counterpunch
twinbythebay replied to Andrew Thares's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I don't think this take is unreasonable, but let's say they brought in Duffey in the 6th and he held the lead. They were almost certainly going to have to go to Alcala eventually, and if he blew the lead later in the game, now you've wasted Duffey in a loss and he may not be available tonight. By bringing in Alcala in the 6th instead, you're giving him a chance to prove himself in a high leverage spot, and while he gave up the lead, at least no other high-end bullpen arms are wasted in a loss. Now, if this was a playoff game, I wouldn't advocate for putting in a young, unproven arm in that situation, but this game was by no means a "must win" in my mind. -
Week in Review: Riding the Roller Coaster
twinbythebay replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
According to Statcast, Wade was the third fastest player on the team last year in terms of sprint speed (28.1 ft/sec), trailing only Buxton and Polanco. Cave ranked fifth, at 27.6. I believe Wade was playing CF last season when he got injured as well. I would like to see Wade get some opportunities in CF given Cave's struggles at the plate and his below average defense in CF. I think Wade would be an upgrade in terms of OBP, but Cave still has more power.- 10 replies
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- miguel sano
- kenta maeda
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I think this may be confirmation bias in your head. They've hit better this season with runners on, and even better than that with runners in scoring position. Overall, the team is only hitting .239 for the season (18th in MLB), but they're hitting .278 with runners on base (6th in MLB) and .305 with runners in scoring position (2nd in MLB). I will say that they were historically bad last season with the bases loaded for some reason, but they were good or great in every other situation last season. This season, timely hitting has been one of the Twins' only saving graces on offense.
- 29 replies
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I'm also glad the Twins aren't on the hook for him beyond this season, but you've gotta feel for the guy. He wasn't able to sign a long term deal last offseason because of the draft pick compensation tied to him, so he took the QO from the Twins, probably thinking he could secure a nice deal next offseason after putting together another solid season this year. Now I'm wondering if he'll be able to get a multi-year deal at all.
- 29 replies
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- jake odorizzi
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I think this is a very reactionary take that is based on surface level stats and some unlucky outcomes so far in this short season. Here are some underlying numbers that tell a very different story than ERA. (All numbers from Fangraphs) xFIP Duffey: 1.36 Rogers: 2.40 May: 3.14 Romo: 3.58 Stashak: 3.71 Littell: 7.55 And a major reason for the discrepancy between the ERA leaders and xFIP leaders: BABIP Rogers: .423 (this puts Rogers 9th in the entire league among qualified relievers) Littell: .368 May: .238 Stashak: .214 Duffey: .182 Romo: .118 And finally, Hard Hit %: Duffey: 56.5% May: 52.2% Littell: 37.5% Stashak: 37.5% Rogers: 37.0% Romo: 27.8% Based on these numbers, the only guy who I would put in the same realm as Rogers is Duffey. Based on Rocco's approach this far, I think he also recognizes that Rogers's stuff hasn't declined and that he should still get the ball in the biggest spots.
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Notebook 8/21: Kansas City Again?
twinbythebay replied to Cooper Carlson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
To be fair, those six games were all against Detroit and Pittsburgh. And let's see who Cleveland is playing this weekend... oh, Detroit again. I doubt the Twins will still be in first place after this weekend unless they can sweep KC. Thankfully, Cleveland's schedule gets a little tougher after that.- 12 replies
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- jake odorizzi
- danny duffy
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Notebook 8/21: Kansas City Again?
twinbythebay replied to Cooper Carlson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Unless I'm missing something, I don't think today is a day game... I'm guessing they just don't want Avila starting against a lefty. I'd expect him to start tomorrow since Singer is a righty.- 12 replies
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- jake odorizzi
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I think it's unfair to expect Berrios to evolve into a true "ace" #1 starter, but I think he can be a solid #2 starter if he improves his consistency. For what it's worth, Eno Sarris had an article in the Athletic today talking about ten good pitchers who have had poor starts to the season and whether or not he thinks each one will turn it around before the season's end. He sounded more confident about Berrios turning it around than any other pitcher on his list since his movement, arm slot, and pitch selection are about the same as they were last year, and his velocity is actually up from last year. Let's hope he starts his turnaround tonight!
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Hey, if you want to argue with Statcast, be my guest. That double was not a hard it ball (90mph), and the only reason it was a hit was because it was well-placed. Same with the bloop single that fell in front of Buxton. It happens. I also have a feeling that your "eye test" is based mostly on results, and if one or two more bounces had gone Rogers's way this season, you'd be raving about how he looks just as good as he looked last year. It's easy to see a bad result and just claim that Rogers's "stuff doesn't look as lethal" without having any evidence besides unlucky results to back up your claim.
- 59 replies
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- kenta maeda
- twins win
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"Minnesota’s bullpen was relatively taxed with the extra-innings affair last night, so getting at least five should be a must." I'm feeling much better today than yesterday about the availability of our top-end bullpen guys. Except for Rogers, all of the other high-end arms should be available tonight. Hats off to Thielbar and Alcala for taking care of business the night after a bullpen game. Not only were their performances huge in securing the win last night, they gave the rest of the guys the night off, improving the chances of another win tonight. If there's a save situation tonight, I'd like to see Duffey get a shot at it. He's the only guy I'd consider putting in Rogers's place long term.
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- minnesota twins
- rich hill
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I also want to give props to Thielbar's and Alcala's pitching performances. On the night after a bullpen game, when your closer blows the save, it's huge to have two back-end guys like that come in and have three shutdown innings with a runner starting on second. I'd also like to thank the boneheaded baserunning of Jed Gyorko and the generally anemic Brewers offense.
- 59 replies
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It looks to me like a lot of TDers are being too quick to throw Rogers under the bus and demanding Duffey or Romo be named the new closer. On one hand, given how good the bullpen has been, it's not totally preposterous to suggest this. Also, Rogers has now blown two saves, his ERA is up from 2.61 last year to 4.82 this year, and his WHIP is up from 1.00 last year to 1.39 this year. BUT, looking at his underlying numbers, I propose that Rogers has been getting very unlucky so far this season, and Rocco should stick with him in the closer role for now. Guess how many balls were hit hard off of Rogers last night? 0. Even that double down the line was only hit at 90mph, and it had an expected batting average of .100, according to statcast. The other two batters who didn't K against Rogers last night hit a soft bloop single and a soft ground ball that should've been a GIDP. Looking at some more numbers for the season, Rogers's FIP and xFIP are actually about half a run lower this season than last, and the main reason we're not seeing that reflected in his ERA is his gaudy .423 BABIP (compared to .307 last year). Although Romo has had better results so far this season, I have less confidence in him going forward considering his miniscule .077 BABIP and a xFIP a full run higher than Rogers. The velocity of his pitches hasn't gone down since last year, and he's not walking a bunch of guys either. I hope Rocco isn't as reactionary as 90% of TDers (in fact, I know he's not) and keeps putting Rogers out there in the biggest spots.
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