Cody Pirkl

The Twins struggled to field a full five-man rotation for much of 2020 due to injury and have even fewer options headed into 2021. Lucky for us, more and more pitchers seem to become available by the day. It may be time to take a look at some of the rebound arms the Twins could take fliers on this offseason.Robbie Ray Based on 2020 alone, Ray may be about the lowest any team could buy on. Ray has always struggled with walks (4.28 BB/9 in his career) and entered 2020 with a new delivery to try and curb his strike throwing issues. Well his 7.84 BB/9 as well as 6.62 ERA and 6.50 FIP in 2020 may suggest it didn’t work out. He was at least not a full on disaster in the second half with 4.74 ERA and 5.06 FIP. So why would the Twins want Ray considering his best of 2020 was still pretty mediocre? Ray is super talented and has shown it for long periods throughout his career. His career 4.26 ERA includes seasons like his 2017 where he completed 162 innings with a 2.98 ERA. He has a career 28.6% K rate which is pretty darn good for a starting pitcher. Many have suggested he has ace-like stuff and it’s often been floated that he’s a small tweak away from fully unlocking it. While a long shot given what we saw in 2020, the Twins may find it worth the time and price tag to take a shot on returning the talented 29 year old Robbie Ray to at least a quality starting pitcher. Mike Leake Mike Leake is a stretch when it comes to the “buy low” label. Leake opted out of the 2020 season due to the pandemic and as a result has become a bit of a forgotten man. There’s no trick the Twins can pull to make Leake a more impressive pitcher. What you see is what you get. Leake’s pitching style is that of the early 2000s. He barely strikes out hitters (career 5.80K/9) and keeps his walks to a minimum (1.98 BB/9). He’s also avoided home runs and has been a gold glove caliber pitcher for much of his career. What makes Leake more valuable is his health and durability, averaging over 180 innings per season across his 10-year career. While the Twins may not be able to plan on Leake being quite the same innings eater he was after a year off, I’d bet he can still provide a solid floor. Don’t be surprised if the Twins see a cheap opportunity to pencil in a reliable starting pitcher that many teams have forgotten about after a lost 2020. Chris Archer I advocated for the Twins to trade for Archer around this time last year and got royally burned. It’s time for round two. Archer was downright bad for Pittsburgh after infamously getting traded for Tyler Glasnow and Austin Meadows. 2020 was the worst year of his career with a 5.19 ERA before going down with Thoracic Outlet Syndrome. As we’ve seen previously with Phil Hughes, this can be a tough injury to return from. That being said, Archer should be on track to be at full strength in 2021 and has fantastic pedigree. He could be toast considering it’s been years since his numbers have reflected his talent. I feel strongly however that the Pirates pitching coaches were to blame for Archer’s dropoff after he reduced the usage on his slider which was the pitch responsible for his success early in his career. The combination of Archer’s 2020 performance as well as injury should not only get him bought out of his $11m contract with the Pirates, but should make him a reasonably cheap gamble to take. The Twins may not be able to return Archer to his low 3s ERA days, but they may be able to find some value left in the 32 year old’s arm. Are they the most exciting names? Certainly not, but the Twins front office is always looking for value on their returns. This offseason Falvey and company will likely be craftier than ever in their pickups as they try to minimize spending on a free agent pool that may be as full as ever. Did any of these buy lows send you into a full on rage? Are there any other buy low starting pitchers you’d like the Twins to look at? Let us know below. — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email — Follow Cody Pirkl on Twitter here Click here to view the article

Rumor has it the Twins engaged in trade talks with the Marlins during last year’s winter meetings during the famous Eddie Rosario talks. Almost a year later, the Marlins have shelled out several pieces of their young rotation but still have plenty of overflow. The Twins may very well look to engage in trade talks once again this winter.After trading Zac Gallen and Caleb Smith to Arizona last year, you’d think the young up and coming Marlins would have taken a hit to their rotation depth. The Marlins however have spent the last few years accumulating young talent that appears to be finally emerging all at once. They’ve fielded a competitive 1-5 in their rotation for a few years now, but currently might have a few too many arms at their disposal to not look to cash in on one or two for help elsewhere. For that reason it may be worth considering a few trade options for the Twins. (Note: Sandy Alcántara and Sixto Sanchez are strategically not mentioned. Keep dreaming Twins fans) Pablo López PabLo had a breakout year in 2020 pitching to a 3.61 ERA and 3.09 FIP. He rode a nasty changeup to a 24.6 K rate and managed a .63 HR/9. PabLo has a bit of an injury history but has a few years of moderate success under his belt and is still just 24 years old. Miami would likely look for an impactful return of either MLB or near MLB talent for their assumed number 3 starter. Elieser Hernandez Hernandez full on broke out in 2020 in surprising fashion, managing a 3.16 ERA and 3.89 FIP and 32.1% K rate before succumbing to an oblique strain after 25.1 innings. If he’s anywhere near what he showed in 2019, the Marlins may have one of baseball’s best #4 starters. The Twins had already been linked to Hernandez last winter so there may be something here that Wes Johnson and company are fond of (possibly the near 40% whiff rate on his slider). Given his shorter track record of success, Hernandez may be a bit more attainable than the above arms even though he’s still just 25 years old. José Ureña Ureña is likely best known for plunking Ronald Acuña a few years back but has been a mostly serviceable pitcher at the back end of the rotation for a few years before a miserable 2020. Ureña has a 3 pitch mix headlined by a mid 90s fastball that makes you wonder if the Twins could unlock a few more strikeouts (15.9% K rate in his career). He’s due $4m in 2021 and may be seen as an unnecessary arm in competition for a rotation spot. For that reason the Twins should be able to obtain the 29 year old for cheap if they identify an adjustment they could possibly make. Trevor Rogers/Braxton Garrett These two are grouped together because both are left handed former 1st round picks that the Marlins brought up straight out of AA in the shortened 2020 season. The Marlins surely think highly of these two to take the leap of faith in calling them up. That being said, the mix of depth they have in their rotation and their willingness to trade promising young starting pitching in the past suggests they may not be off the table. Their Major League success is irrelevant at this point, as Garrett threw only 7.2 innings and Rogers 28, but don’t put it past the Twins to check in if they see a young controllable starting pitcher they could mould. Bonus: Jordan Yamamoto I’m not going to lie to you, the 24 year old righty had an 18.26 ERA and 11.93 FIP last season. It was bad, like possibly “get this man out of Miami” bad. In 2019 he actually managed a 4.46 ERA and 4.51 FIP though and he had 3 pitches with a whiff rate over 27.5%. There’s clearly some talent in there and his cost may never be lower. Such a young starter with any Major League success will never come free, but the Twins could look to cash in for as cheap as can be. The fun thing about the Marlins is they’ve shown a history of unpredictability in trading their young arms. At this point that’s about all they have, so there’s not an obvious candidate aside from Ureña that they may actually be looking to trade. The Twins missed out on Zac Gallen in 2019 when that surprising trade was made. I think they should be checking in with Miami this winter and exploring all options to make sure they don’t miss out on another young controllable pitcher being shipped out. — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email — Follow Cody Pirkl on Twitter here Click here to view the article

After the Twins early exit from the postseason, GM Derek Falvey hinted that some shake ups to the roster's core weren’t out of the question after the regulars disappointed yet again. In what looks to be an unprecedented offseason looming, there are several reasons that may make Miguel Sano the perfect “core” piece to look to trade.Miguel Sano is Good: I love Miguel Sano, and you should too. Trading him should make you nervous if you remember a man named David Ortiz. He’s been an above average hitter according to wRC+ in every season but two and is almost 20% above in his career as a whole. In addition, he’s locked up for about $10m/year with a team option through 2023. As we all know, Sano is incredibly streaky and swings and misses… a lot. That being said, he also set the pace for Major League Baseball when it comes to average exit velocity, hard hit % and barrel rate in 2020. He also shifted to 1B and held his own at a new position this last year and looks to be a viable option to remain there for the near future if it fits a team’s needs. Sano should fetch a good amount of value on the trade market. NL Designated Hitters: The National League will likely adopt the DH moving forward, a position some feel Sano is destined for in the future. Despite Sano’s encouraging debut at 1B, it’s fair to wonder what the future holds for him in the field considering his 6’4 frame and injury history. A team could just cut bait on his transition to 1B and utilize him solely in their lineup to avoid injury. Furthermore, the DH was sort of sprung on the NL this year, and they largely suffered at that position. Competitive teams relied on players like Matt Carpenter (84 wRC+), Ryan Braun (99 wRC+), and Jay Bruce (83 wRC+) for example. There should be no shortage of teams willing to pay handsomely for a controllable slugger to immediately step in as they try and plan more carefully for a full season of designated hitters in the NL. Kirilloff the First Baseman: Alex Kirilloff is hopefully here to stay after impressing in his trial by fire in the playoffs. While he played right field and is assumed by many to be a corner outfielder, Kirilloff actually spent close to half of his time at 1B in 2019. The Twins had the foresight to recognize their inevitable log jam in the outfield and began the switch. Kirilloff’s bat appears to be up to the task when it comes to producing at the level of an MLB corner infielder. Furthermore, reports are fairly high on Kirilloff’s defensive prowess on first base. The Twins did a fantastic job in getting Sano acclimated in a hurry, and Kirilloff already has about 300 innings more at the position than he did. If the Twins believe in Kirilloff’s bat enough to hand the position over to him, trading Sano opens a nice path to keep Rooker on the team as well as give Larnach a chance in the outfield. All of this while shedding payroll and getting a healthy return for Miguel Sano. Do I actively want the Twins to trade Miguel Sano? Not really. The topic of shaking up their core is a bit nerve racking when looking at the regular season success of this squad over the last two years. That being said, if the front office feels they need a change to get over the postseason hump, I’m interested in what they can scheme up. There are too many other core pieces that are valuable and affordable i.e. Kepler, Polanco, Buxton. Sano has ample replacement options and players of his skill set may be at an all time high when it comes to trade value. If a shake up of the Twins core is on the horizon, I think Miguel Sano may be the odd man out. Do you agree? — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email — Follow Cody Pirkl on Twitter here Click here to view the article

2020 was a nightmare season for Lewis Thorpe. The Australian lefty just never got his footing and looked ineffective in what was essentially a lost season. While there wasn’t a single Twins fan who was arguing to keep Thorpe on the Major League roster by mid season, it may also be a mistake to completely give up on him.Even before this season turned into the patented nightmare 2020 we’ve all grown accustomed to, Thorpe was already struggling. He showed up in the spring as the favorite for many to snatch the 5th starting spot. Instead he was sent to the minor league side of camp after taking an absence from the Twins training facility. While it’s easy to say that a 2-3 week absence from Spring Training should likely remove you from the rotation battle, it’s hard not to feel for the guy when he’s so far from home. Then came the mess that was the 2020 baseball season. Spring Training was halted only to be picked back up months later. Thorpe competed in summer camp and received opportunities, but he just never looked right. His fastball had dropped from 91.2 to 89.7, rarely touching 90 on the radar gun. In some outings the fastball was as low as 86-87. The rest of his offspeed pitches dropped a few ticks as well as he just never had an effective pitch to turn to with the life missing from his fastball. There were no indications of injury. Most troubling of all, his walk rate ballooned to 13% (matching his strikeout rate). Unlike his 6+ ERA in 2019, his 6.06 ERA in 2020 was backed up by a 6.99 FIP. He had a career high walk rate as well as a K rate about half of what he put up in any other professional season. Everything matched up to the eye test that was telling us that it just wasn’t working out. Is it a coincidence that this happened in the weirdest season in MLB history though? In addition to a mess of pitching injuries, tons of pitchers began the season with steep declines in fastball velocity including big names like James Paxton, Charlie Morton and Blake Snell. The slow ramp up of Spring Training gave way to a rush to the start of the season in July’s summer camp. Many of them ironed out their velocity issues as they continued making starts. Unfortunately for Thorpe, he was in bullpen duty and didn’t have much of a routine. He was eventually sent down and wasn’t seen throughout September. While Thorpe certainly dropped a few spots in the depth chart as a result of his 2020, it’s fair to mention that he’s only a year removed from being a pitcher the Twins were excited about. There’s no guarantee that Thorpe is going to be back with a vengeance in 2021. His 2020 was nothing short of brutal and we have no minor league numbers to see if he made any improvements after his demotion. That being said, he’s a talented left handed pitcher who fell flat in a season that we’ll likely see many players rebound from in years to come. He’s definitely still a commodity that other teams would give a shot to, and certainly has shown the talent to make the most of it. I don’t think the Twins are going to give up on Lewis Thorpe, and I don’t think that we as fans should want them to. — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email — Follow Cody Pirkl on Twitter here Click here to view the article

This is always so weird to see. People were split on Donaldson between "we need his energy" and "his energy isn't going to fit in with this team". Bauer didn't have any real issues in Cleveland other than throwing that ball over the CF fence and no issues at all in Cincinnati. People worry about chemistry too much. When's the last time in Major League history a successful team brought in a talented player who didn't mech well with the clubhouse and it made them worse?

I mean its 42.6%

I agree that it's not worth trashing the whole team but I don't think the Twins want to do that either. I'm a believer that guys like Kepler and Garver were hugely impacted by the logistics of this season. That being said, the Twins have too much talent waiting for a shot in the minors to continue running it back every year after this core of players has crashed and burned so spectacularly two years in a row now. I don't think the goal is to clean house and replace all of the incumbents with young guys and roll the dice. I think it's more about making the most of the talent they have at their disposal and maximizing value. If they think Kirilloff can be as good or better defensively than Eddie and better on offense, why not shop him or non tender him and use that $10m to improve elsewhere? If some combination of Larnach, Rooker and Kirilloff can play 1B and provide a more well rounded profile than Sano, why not trade him for a pitcher or another piece that fills a hole on the team? In the end I think it'll only be a guy or two from this "core" we've seen the last two years that gets mixed up a bit.

The Twins shopped Eddie at the Winter Meetings last year and the only team interested was the Marlins who were hurting for a left handed power OF bat. Even then they wouldn't give up anything worthwhile for him unfortunately. Now he's a year older and making more money. It's sometimes hard to believe by watching him but according to the metrics that teams use, he has proven himself to be a bad defender with his most athletic years behind him. He also possesses one of the worst plate discipline profiles you can possibly project for a player as they enter their 30s. I think he has a few years left in the tank, but I can't see him having a resurgence or breakout like Hicks had that leaves us wondering what the hell happened. Also I wouldn't be surprised if Eddie is worth $4-5m in the free agent market this winter. If the Twins call a team up offering Eddie, they'll know we're just trying to get Kirilloff into the opening day roster and we'll probably non tender him if we can't find a suitor. Why would they give anything up and pay double what they could pay him if they just wait it out?

Sano whiffed over 40% of the time but Cruz himself whiffed about 35% this year. It doesn't come down to swinging and missing, it's whether or not Sano is walking and hitting mistakes. If Sano can somehow be somewhat consistent with what he did in August this year, he's be a great DH. Unfortunately that month was sandwiched between two months where he was an easy out and did neither of these things.

I have no way of knowing whether the prospects are ready but I have all of the confidence in the world in them if the Twins believe it. I agree that you can't replace Cruz's bat with any of these prospects, but he's getting to the age where you have to ask if Cruz himself can live up to what he's done for these last two years. With regards to Rooker, yes he's a bad outfielder but he also played 0 1B in his last season in the minors. Maybe we'll see that change, who knows. With regards to pitching in the minors, I think you'd be surprised. Everyone knows Duran and Balazovic and they're probably the closest, but guys like Enlow and Canterino also look like solid future pieces. The Twins will still sign some pitching this offseason. I don't suggest the Twins field a full team of minor leaguers. The thing is though, someone like Kirilloff is considered to be one of the best hitters in the minor leagues and he's getting close. If they don't bring Eddie back, would you rather they just hand the job over to Cave? They're not going to sign George Springer or Marcell Ozuna. They'll throw in a backup for a month or two until they decide to bring Kirilloff up. Why not just do it right away? You can't just keep your top 100 prospects down for as long as the Twins are competing in case they come up and don't add to the team right away.

2019 seems like a lifetime ago. Much like the world we live in, our Minnesota Twins were completely different. The Bomba Squad reigned supreme (aside from in October of course), and you can’t blame the Twins for running it back in 2020. What we learned since then however is that it’s time to move on and forge ahead. The Bomba Squad is a thing of the past.The “Bomba Squad” label was more than a fun nickname for the 2019 Twins. It represented not just the daily lineup, but a persona for the team. It represented the energy they had as well as the tactics and strategy they used to pummel opponents into submission as underdogs for an entire season. At the heart of the Bomba Squad were players like the Mike Piazza-esque Mitch Garver, AL All Star Starting Shortstop Jorge Polanco, bonafide slugger Max Kepler. Eddie Rosario led the team in RBI and was the idea man behind the “Bomba Squad” name. Most entertaining of all was watching the club’s 39 year old leader Nelson Cruz continue to dominate at the top of the offensive leaderboards. Games were never out of reach as any given player stepped to the plate supported by the air raid siren and the roar of the crowd at Target Field. Maybe pitching was a concern, but they had more than enough quality arms to ride to 101 wins behind the record setting offense. If you watched baseball in 2020, you know this year was far from a repeat. The Twins managed a similar pace for wins, but it was obvious things were different. They rarely managed a comfortable win regardless of the opponent. The offense and pitching appeared to switch spots, as they won most games in spite of the offensive performance. Kepler looked uncomfortable, Polanco was painful to watch, Garver was one of the worst hitters in baseball, and even Cruz faded down the stretch after looking like his prime self to begin the season. The circumstances of 2020 surely played a role in the team we watched for 60 games and it’s fair to question where things would have ended up in a full 162. Regardless of this, 2020 was a reminder of the nature of baseball. A lineup made up of largely the same players looked completely different just a year later. It was fairly easy to see the frustration in failing to live up to these standards among the players, and the shift was difficult to accept for fans as well. And in that lies the issue. Even in 60 games we discovered that it’s unhealthy to base expectations on a record setting team. It’s the reason a largely successful regular season felt disappointing. The Twins are still a fantastic team poised to compete for years. They just didn’t earn that success by scoring double digit runs seemingly every other night as everyone expected. 2019 may have been a once in a lifetime performance on offense. That doesn’t mean the Twins are on the decline, quite the contrary. They have tons of exciting talent nearing the national stage. It’s just hard to expect the young talent on it’s way will ever resemble the style of the Bomba Squad and that’s okay. After another disappointing end to the season, it’s time for the Twins to make their own expectations rather than basing them off of one of the most accomplished offenses baseball will ever see. Fans need to abandon the mindset that frustrates them when an offense can’t consistently overwhelm an opponent. The Twins will simply have too good a team these next few years to dwell on a nickname from two years ago. The future of Twins baseball is going to be an exciting one. It’s time to accept this reality and embrace it. It’s time for the “Bomba Squad” to go. — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email — Follow Cody Pirkl on Twitter here Click here to view the article

Ildemaro Vargas #1

They're not letting everyone go. Rosario has literally 3 MLB ready replacements. In terms of Cruz, it'd be nice to have him back but two years is super risky for a 40 year old who fizzled to end the season and suffered from injuries. Filling the DH spot shouldn't be very difficult with all of the Twins options, albeit it won't likely be to the level Cruz has provided the last two years. Will Cruz definitely be able to provide that though? Pineda is already signed through next season at which point he'll be 33 years old in 2022. He's barely eclipsed 30 starts in the last three years. The only reason they brought him back was because his price was so low from his suspension. With all of their young pitching in the minors and guys like Berrios and Buxton to focus on, they're not going to spend much if any time pursuing an extension with him.

Actually even Aaron Gleeman has alluded to this. Two postseasons against two teams that didn't even boast the top of the leagues's starting pitching and guys like Eddie, Kepler, Polanco, Sano etc. have done absolutely nothing. It's fair to question whether these guys for whatever reason just lack the ability to hit in the pressures in the postseason. Gleeman talked about possibly shopping Garver, Sano and even Kepler. Eddie is gone, that's just a given at this point. Expect the Twins to pursue an extension with Kirilloff this winter to avoid service time issues for starting him on Opening Day in 2021. They'll definitely approach Cruz but if he wants multiple years I'd guess they let him sign elsewhere. They've already been burned on the risky Donaldson contract. I can't see them taking a leap on an aging slugger again, especially given Cruz's injures and struggles to end the season. There's a non zero chance somebody signs him for $18 million and he turns into Edwin Encarnacion next year. The Twins should be focusing on the younger prospects given their caliber. The core of Sano, Kepler, Polanco etc. aren't toast or anything, it's still a good core to have. I just think after two crash and burn failures that it may be a good idea to give some new faces a chance to see if they can come in and hit the reset button. A few of our prospects have the ability to be the face of this team. If ever there were a time to take a leap, it's now.

Rosario gone: Definitely. If they started Kirilloff in that game, there's no way they don't trust him to play opening day, and he's much cheaper and quite possibly better. Garver and Jeffers: I don't think much needs to be figured out. They'll probably split time and if Garver rebounds even a little bit they probably combine for one of the better tandems of catchers in baseball Marwin: I think you have it backwards on Marwin. He barely eclipsed replacement level and was one of the worst regular hitters in all of baseball. He was the slowest runner on the team and that includes Cruz. Marwin looks absolutely cooked at 31 and quite possibly may not even get a major league deal with a bad team. Cruz: Probably gone if he wants two years Pitching: Would love to re sign Hill. Probably won't extend Pineda. The only reason they re signed him in the first place was how cheap he was from his extension. Berrios is going to hit the open market, that's a fact. I think I remember them offering him Aaron Nola money and he wanted more which is an absolute joke. They definitely won't trade him though.

Eddie is probably as good as gone. If they believe Kirilloff could start today, they think he can start on opening day next season and Eddie is the odd man out there.

Miguel Sano hasn’t had the season he expected from the very onset of 2020. His overall numbers look bad, but Sano has been the same streaky hitter we’ve seen in years past. Heading into the postseason, Sano may be one small flick of a switch from being the monster he’s shown he can be.2020 has been a tale of three seasons, or rather three streaks. The first was a brutal cold streak. Sano spent much of his early summer quarantined in a room in his home with an asymptomatic COVID diagnosis. While the virus didn’t take its toll on his body, his ramp up time was affected. He opened the season 1-17 with no walks and 8 Ks as fans panicked. The turn of the calendar was kind to Sano, as he seemed to adjust on the fly. He was one of the best hitters not only in the Twins lineup, but in all of baseball. Sano hit .284/.394/.636. He was 73% better than a league average hitter according to wRC+. In a lineup that was struggling mightily, Sano was seemingly putting on a show night in and night out. Unfortunately as the Twins offense has heated up in September, Sano has gone ice cold again. He sat a few times with neck stiffness at the peak of his performance and it clearly ruined the roll he was on. In September he’s well below the Mendoza line and hasn’t managed to get on base even 20% of the time. Having only one peak to go with his two valleys on the season has left him with an overall line that barely shows him as an above league average hitter. His talent is undeniably so much better than this. Download attachment: Sano Savant.PNG Sano has shown his entire career that he has an unmatched ability to punish mistakes when he makes contact. While he’s the worst case of swing and miss you’ll find across the MLB, his plate approach when he’s at his best is enough for him to cause his fair share of damage. When he’s taking bad pitches and drawing his walks, he’s dangerous. And that’s exactly what’s missing from Sano’s game right now. Sano’s walk rate is sub 3% in September and was a solid 0% in his first 17 ABs where he looked lost. Even if you weren’t paying close attention, his quality of at bat is much different this month than when he was peaking in August where his walk rate was over 10% higher. We’ve seen a lot more flailing at pitches well off the plate in September. So what’s Sano’s issue? Plate discipline is typically a pretty consistent skill among hitters and it seems to come and go in Sano’s case. Combining July and September, Sano is hitting under .200 against fastballs with expected stats that don’t offer much inspiration. In August however, Sano made more contact with fastballs and paired it with an exit velocity over 101 mph. He hit .372 against the pitch and slugged .814. His launch angle was 17 degrees which is prime for barreling the ball when you’re averaging 101 mph off the bat. September in particular has been strange. Sano has seen more fastballs, swung and missed at them less and somehow is doing less damage. It might be as simple as him just missing his pitches. He’s not whiffing on fastballs, but I have more than a few ABs in mind where he fouled off pitches he would have crushed a month ago. In addition, his launch angle has risen from 17 to 24 degrees against fastballs which means he’s getting under the ball much more often instead of lining it into some poor stadium seat in the second deck. All of this adds up to something just barely throwing Sano’s timing off in my opinion. He sometimes looks to be cheating on pitches and winds up sacrificing his plate discipline, in other cases he’s just missing fastballs and either fouling them off or popping them up. At any rate, this isn’t one of the deep slumps we’ve seen from Sano over the years. He sinks or swims with his ability to connect with fastballs. He’s not completely missing them, but rather seems to have just a miniscule timing issue ever since he sat with his neck injury. He’s taking some big swings now that suggest the neck isn’t bothering him, but he may very well still be looking for his perfect timing again which I’d argue is very close. You should feel relatively good about Sano headed into the playoffs. He always seems to be one swing away from breaking out of his slumps and he appears to be right on the edge of exploding again according to his swing and miss rates which are all that matter in Sano’s case. If we see some smart at bats and timed up fastballs to close down the season, the Twins first round opponent likely won’t be able to afford a single mistake to the slugger. Miguel Sano is the kind of hitter who can carry a lineup when he’s right, and with the Twins looking not quite as lifeless as of late, he may just make our 1-9 too much to handle in October. — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email — Follow Cody Pirkl on Twitter here Click here to view the article

Max Kepler was coming off a career year in 2019 that inspired the imaginations of Twins Territory. The “next step” was discussed all offseason as well as dreams of the next Christian Yelich. 2020 has been far from what we’d hoped for Max Kepler however, and his performance as a whole is reason for concern.Kepler’s 2019 was fantastic with a .252/.335/.519 slash line, good for a 121 wRC+. He looked likely to continue that performance after slugging two homers on opening day off of Lucas Giolito. Since opening day however, Kepler has a line of .198/.302/.343 with a 78 wRC+, typically coming from the leadoff spot which has cost the Twins dearly. The first difference that stands out in his 2020 profile is his performance against left handed pitching. In 2019 Kepler managed to hit .293/.356/.524 against lefties, which actually bested his numbers against righties. In 2020, Kepler has cratered to a .105/.205/.132 line. While we held our breath that Kepler had suddenly learned to hit lefties, there are very few left handed hitters in history that can sustain equal or greater success against left handed pitching than right handed. The contrast between last year’s performance and the rest of his career suggests that Kepler probably had a career year that may never be replicated, let alone improved upon. I’m no hitting mechanics guru, but something has changed in Max Kepler’s swing. I couldn’t point out the specifics in a side by side breakdown, but I can use his numbers to prove it. For starters, Kepler’s average exit velocity has dropped from 89.7 to 87.7 mph and his hard hit rate has plummeted from 42.1 to 33% This isn’t super crazy to see happen naturally, but in this case it probably has something to do with his average launch angle increasing from a healthy 18.2 degrees to 22.7. We’ve seen tons of pop ups on pitches Max would have punished last year, and it’s made him a flat out liability at the plate in 2020. What’s even more troubling has been Kepler’s defense. He was sneakily one of the best defensive right fielders in all of baseball in years past, and this year has been far from it. We’ve seen Max contribute to losses in a big way recently by dropping a routine fly ball and failing to make a throw to first base from shallow right field. His defensive metrics say this is more than just failing the eye test. His Outs Above Average according to Statcast has dropped from 7 to 0. His Universal Zone Rating has decreased from 9.9 to 2. All of this despite a career best sprint speed. So what’s causing an all around career worst year for Kepler and how do we fix it? Part of it is likely good old fashioned regression. After last year’s 100th percentile outcome, Kepler is probably seeing his 10th percentile play out. In a full season, it’s not likely that Kepler would continue at this rate for the entire year assuming you believe in his talent. Unfortunately across 60 games, it’s going to look ugly in the record books. The more important consideration is that this season is unlike any other. The Twins are playing much worse on the road and for good reason. The protocols players have to follow are strict, and each player will likely handle it differently. Kepler has made costly mistakes this season that appeared to be caused by a lack of focus, and it’s not hard to imagine why given the state of the world. There’s no sugarcoating the fact that Kepler looks far from the player that led a 101 win team in fWAR last season. It is difficult however to pull too much of a conclusion from 60 games during the weirdest season of baseball in history. What do you think of Kepler’s struggle? Extenuating circumstances, or is Kepler just not the player we believed he was after 2020? — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email — Follow Cody Pirkl on Twitter here Click here to view the article