Cody Pirkl

The vacancies in the Twins rotation has fans hoping for a huge trade to bolster the starting staff before the season opens, and it’s easy to understand why. I’d argue however that now would be a terrible time to push all of the chips in. Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober… Dylan Bundy… Folks, that’s your Minnesota Twins rotation at the time of this writing. After trading Jose Berrios and losing Kenta Maeda to injury, the starting pitching lacks depth, high-end talent, floor, etc. Despite this fact, 14 of the top 15 starting pitchers on the free-agent market signed with teams before the lockout without a single whisper of interest from the Twins front office. This development led some to call shenanigans on the organization's statement that they plan on competing in 2022. Plenty of fans still hold out hope however that the Twins have some enormous splashes left to make that will push the Twins back into the driver’s seat of the AL Central. There are several starting pitchers on the trade market that would instantly become the leaders of the Twins rotation. Luis Castillo, Chris Bassitt, and Frankie Montas to name a few that have been thrown around in hypotheticals. One such hypothetical was just recently proposed by TwinsDaily’s own Nash Walker: The package here is steep but fair, as right-hander Frankie Montas has two years of control and finished 6th in AL Cy Young voting in 2021. In acquiring Montas, the Twins would part with Luis Arraez who is controlled through 2026 in addition to recently acquired Drew Strotman, former 1st round pick Keoni Kavaco, and Jhoan Duran whose triple-digit arm suffered an injury in 2021 but made it to AAA. Such a deal would cost the Twins in the present while leaving them open to get burned in the future, as these trades are often composed. Such a deal should raise questions, the first of which being “Does this move push the Twins over the top?”. To which I would argue “not even close”. The Twins had two front-end starters in 2021 in Berrios and Kenta Maeda for most of the season and finished in dead last place in the worst division in baseball. With a similar returning lineup (without Nelson Cruz) and a bullpen that likely won’t have any significant additions, it could be argued that the Twins are paying top dollar just to get halfway to where they were at the beginning of a disastrous 2021. Bailey Ober and Joe Ryan will certainly have a huge role in how the rotation performs, but to push the chips in while leaning so heavily on two rookies totaling well under 200 career innings would be quite the gamble. The pair would need to replicate their 2021 performances if not improve upon them to set the foundation of the Twins 2022 rotation. It’s certainly possible both are up to the task, but with such little track record and an offseason of scouting reports, it’s fair to expect some turbulence from the two rookies. It may be more realistic and fair to expect these two to perform closer to #4 starting pitchers than the rotation leaders the Twins need to make a Frankie Montas pairing worth their while. The other consideration in regards to acquiring Frankie Montas is that he’s exactly where Jose Berrios was before 2021 with two years left under contract. What would stop the Twins from similarly shipping him out at the trade deadline if the team is struggling again come July? The return would certainly be less than the price they paid in the preseason. If the Twins do in fact struggle in 2022 and hold onto Montas for the following year, he could definitely become a huge piece of the rotation in 2023 where it’s much easier to see the Twins returning to contention. That being said, they’ll have paid top dollar for two years of a premier arm and only get one meaningful season from him. In short, the Twins have a ton of question marks heading into 2022. In order to truly feel good about the rotation they probably needed at least two legitimate starting pitching additions. There are few impact options left in free agency and it’s hard to imagine them swinging two enormous trades to make up for it. What the Twins have now is a rotation problem that doesn’t come close to being solved by one big move. There are moves to be made in free agency and admittedly they could very well hit on some lower-profile additions. The lineup and bullpen could also shine bright enough to pick up some slack from the rotation. It’s hard to look at the roster and say this is the likelier scenario, however. Given the hoops we have to jump through to imagine a contender in 2022, wouldn’t it make more sense to be prudent before Opening Day and respond accordingly at the July trade deadline? It may be the anti-fun stance, but it would be a shame to see the Twins mortgage their future for a huge addition that doesn’t pay off. Especially with so many high-end prospects nearing the Major Leagues. Of all the times to acquire a huge starting pitcher the last few years, right now may be riskiest with the least amount of possible payoff. The Twins shouldn’t be looking to go all-in on an ace. — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook, or email — Follow Cody Pirkl on Twitter here View full article

I think you overestimate our pitching prospects if you're that comfortable saying they can just come up and post a mid 4s ERA. Not only are they not likely to do that, but they're also going to have severe innings limits. If they paid Kikuchi that money and he posted 160+ innings of a 4.50 ERA he's probably this FOs 2nd best SP signing ever and would definitely make the team better.

The Twins have a lot to sort out when free agency reopens, but they need to establish a base to their offseason after failing to do so before the lockout. Three moves in particular would go a long way in improving the roster across the board and could be the beginning of a return to contention. Sign Yusei Kikuchi to a 2 year, $25m deal Kikuchi isn’t necessarily the best pitcher left in free agency, but the left-hander would make a great addition to the Twins rotation. At 30 years old, Kikuchi hasn’t been all that good in his three years in the league with over 350 innings and an ERA around 5.00. The lefty has obvious talent, however, averaging over 95mph on the fastball in 2021 with a wicked slider that resulted in dominant stretches. Kikuchi wouldn’t break the bank and has number 2-3 upside, but even as is he would go a long way in rehabbing a pitching needy roster. Striking out a batter per inning with a mid 4s ERA as he did in 2021 would slot in just fine, and coming near the 160 innings he’s averaged in his career would make a huge impact on a rotation that expects some young additions during the season. Even if there isn’t a tweak to be made, Kikuchi is the type of pitcher the Twins should be throwing money at for multiple years. Sign Richard Rodriguez to a 1 year, $3m deal I’ve long wanted to see Richard Rodriguez in a Twins jersey. It turned out paying up would have been a mistake, as Rodriguez turned into a bit of a pumpkin in 2021. His strikeout rate dropped by an incredible 20% despite nearly identical velocities year over year. The former Pirate’s closer lost effectiveness with his slider which led to his being non-tendered after a trade to Atlanta. He did still manage a sub 3.00 ERA, however. Relievers are volatile, but Rodriguez has shown no physical red flags at 31 years old which makes you wonder whether there’s just a small adjustment to make to his once dominant breaking ball. It would be a similar deal to what the Twins gave Hansel Robles in 2021, although Rodriguez is coming off a year where he was still a useful reliever. The right-hander was quietly one of the better closers in baseball in 2020 and could help lead a bullpen that will see several young arms debut and battle for jobs. Sign Trevor Story for to a 4 year, $92m deal The game of musical chairs is coming to an end in the free agent shortstop market, and Story may run out of options. With less leverage, Story shouldn’t need the 5+ year deals we’ve seen this offseason that the Twins are unlikely to sign. Still just 29, the Twins would still get Story in the prime of his career. Without a clear-cut shortstop on the way, Story would fill this historically problematic position for the foreseeable future rather than kicking the can down the road with another one year Andrelton Simmons type. In what was certainly a down year in 2021, Story still accumulated 3.5 Wins Above Replacement, which would have been third in Minnesota behind Byron Buxton and Jorge Polanco. He’s still always capable of a 30 home run, 30 steal season with a respectable on base ability and never having hit below .250. The right-handed slugger would be a huge addition to the already great lineup. Adding such a big bat would make the trade of another established hitter for pitching much easier to swallow. The Twins have much more work to do than just three moves, but these three in particular offer a good amount of floor as well as a ton of upside. The bullpen and offense/defense would considerably improve, and the hole in the rotation would shrink by adding an arm that could have a surprising payoff. As we all get fed up with the lockout that has no end in sight, there’s little left to do but dream on the flurry of moves that will absolutely follow. Are there any moves you’d like to see the Twins prioritize? Let us know below! — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email — Follow Cody Pirkl on Twitter here View full article

It’s been a long time since the Twins have had anything close to a franchise shortstop. After years of drafting and signing possible suitors, however, the Twins may have finally hit on a prospect who can one day man one of the weakest positions in their franchise history. The Twins opted to draft Noah Miller 36th overall in the 2021 draft after taking right-handed pitcher Chase Petty with their first pick. Petty got a deserved amount of hype for his triple-digit fastball and future upside as a stud pitcher, but Miller appears to have gotten overshadowed just a bit too much. Noah Miller boasts fantastic contact ability with a great eye at the plate, average speed, and developing power. He pairs his raw skills with highly touted athleticism and baseball IQ, all of which adds up to a fantastic floor even for a player drafted out of high school. His lack of standout offensive ability would give him the ceiling of a decent major league player if he has to move to a position like outfield or second base, but there appears to be more and more optimism in his ability to remain at shortstop. Miller falls into the mid-teens across most Twins prospect ranking lists. Keith Law of the Athletic, however, recently released his ranking of the Twins system and bumped Miller all the way up to 10. For those unfamiliar with Law, he’s recognized for being particularly pessimistic (or perhaps realistic) when it comes to ranking prospects. Law essentially believes in Miller’s safe offensive profile and more importantly his ability to play a sufficient shortstop. While Miller doesn’t have the ceiling to be the next Fernando Tatis Jr. or Wander Franco, Law believes Miller has an achievable ceiling as an everyday contributor at the position. An evaluator as highly regarded as Keith Law making such a statement should be exciting, and Twins fans in particular should have an appreciation for this possibility playing out. It seems to be a yearly tradition where the Twins either draft or internationally sign a significant number of shortstops and fans ask “Why?”. Despite the perception of casting a wide net at this position, the Twins have made little progress in developing any players who are anywhere near a lock to be the long-term answer. Typically we see these “shortstops” Make a pivot elsewhere on the diamond shortly thereafter. In regards to the history of the Minnesota Twins, Jorge Polanco was the starting shortstop in consecutive Opening Days in 2019 and 2020. Before him Pedro Florimon earned that honor in 2013 and 2014. Since 2004 however when Christian Guzman made his 6th consecutive Opening Day start, the position has essentially been a revolving door. Miller may be a long way off from Major League action at just 19 years old, but his offensive skillset that made him a first round pick is also one that gives him a relatively good shot at an MLB career. Twins fans saw with Aaron Sabato in 2021 that even in the first round there’s significant risk with prospects that have a feast or famine slugger profile. While prospects are always risky, Miller’s contact ability alone may give him a slightly better chance of overcoming the minor league gauntlet over the next few years. The bar is admittedly set quite low when it comes to shortstops in Twins territory. That being said, if Noah Miller has a full 2022 of proving he can do it at shortstop, his notoriety is going to go through the roof. For as much flak as the Twins get for their pitching development, taking a first-round shortstop who actually pans out would be an incredible development for the organization. There are a lot of MLB-ready prospects to watch in 2022, but none have an opportunity to raise their stock quite as much as Noah Miller. We won’t see him in Minneapolis this summer, but we just may be talking about him as the future franchise shortstop by this time next year. — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email — Follow Cody Pirkl on Twitter here View full article

The Twins had two rookies in their rotation at the end of the 2021 season that have fans understandably excited. There was a third rookie who just missed a 2021 debut, that just might be the best of the three. A 7th round pick in 2018, Josh Winder didn’t break into professional baseball at the top of Twins prospect lists. It would be understandable, in fact, if you hadn’t even heard his name until he really raised some eyebrows last spring. Winder reportedly made a lot of good progress during the canceled 2020 Minor League season, but it’s entirely possible he would have debuted long ago without the interruption. After totaling just under 40 innings pitched in his debut 2018 season, he topped 125 innings in 2019 at Cedar Rapids with decent strikeout numbers as well as an impressive avoidance of walks and home runs in A ball. 2021 showed Winder was far from what you’d expect out of a 7th round draft pick. In 54 innings at AA his strikeout rate eclipsed 31%. He walked under 5% of his batters faced and posted a 0.82 HR/9. His ERA was under 2. Upon his promotion to AAA, his strikeouts dropped a bit and home runs increased dramatically in a small sample before his season was cut short with shoulder fatigue. It was a disappointing end to 2021, especially for those hoping to see the 6’5 right-hander at Target Field by season’s end. Still, Winder showed enough to keep your eye on him in 2022. Winder has built up his prospect status since his selection in the draft. Scouts give him a 55 future grade fastball with 50 grades for his slider, curveball, and changeup. His pitch mix shows a lot of promise when it comes to sticking in a rotation. He may not have quite the fastball command of Joe Ryan, but the depth of his pitches doesn’t make future bullpen arm concerns quite as obvious. In regards to pitch mix, Winder matches up quite well with Bailey Ober who is deservedly receiving quite a bit of buzz headed into 2022. Winder has a superior fastball and slider, while Ober has a plus changeup and impeccable command as Twins fans saw in his 92 innings pitched last season. Where Winder undoubtedly bests Ober, however, is his past body of work. The 125 innings in his second professional season were very encouraging. It’s a benchmark that Ober has yet to reach after throwing a career-high 108 innings in 2022 across AAA and the majors. Winder’s season-ending shoulder fatigue was likely just a result of so many innings after a year off, and his injury/durability concerns moving forward shouldn’t be as significant as Ober’s who’s dealt with his fair share of injuries already throughout his career. Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober get a lot of love from Twins Territory, and rightfully so. There isn’t much substitution for watching a young arm succeed at the Major League level. It is important to remember that we were right on the edge of Josh Winder possibly being in the same conversation. For as good as Ryan and Ober might be, one could argue that Winder could be the more well-rounded of the trio when it comes to a future in an MLB rotation. I’d put my money on Winder spending Opening Day in St. Paul. That being said, depending on how the Twins address the rest of the rotation it’s not impossible that Winder could win a rotation spot out of Spring Training. He’s the next man up when it comes to the Falvine pitching pipeline, and we likely won’t have to wait too long to see him in Minneapolis. He may not receive the attention of the Chase Pettys of the world, but Winder deserves a lot of credit for his meteoric rise from being a 7th round pick where even decent Minor League careers are far from the norm. Regardless of how the season goes, 2022 will be a fun year when it comes to the pitching pipeline. Expect to see Josh Winder as the first of many to stake their claim in the Twins future rotation. — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email — Follow Cody Pirkl on Twitter here View full article

Trevor Larnach was front and center for a brief moment in 2021, crushing homers and brightening the future of the offense. But just as quickly as he showed up, he was gone. What can we expect from the slugging left hander moving forward? Fellow first-round picks Trevor Larnach and Alex Kirilloff have been near each other on the Twins prospect lists for years and had similar ETAs to make their debuts at Target Field. It was only natural that when Kirilloff got the call, Larnach made the jump shortly thereafter. Kirilloff showed that a trip back to the minors was unlikely despite his season-ending injury. Larnach’s 2021 however is a bit tougher to piece together. The Good Despite just 13 at-bats in his AAA career, Larnach looked far from overmatched upon his arrival. He posted an .845 OPS through his first month with an incredible eye at the plate. The left-hander was showing off some tremendous power as well with some tape-measure home runs and hit a ball 116 mph, a strong indicator of raw power. In the outfield, Larnach did surprisingly well in some facets. Left field appeared to be a bit of a struggle, but in right field, he played the overhang incredibly well, posting an Outs Above Average of 2 and 4 Defensive Runs Saved. We've heard Larnach isn't the fleetest of foot throughout his minor league career and there's been little in the way of excitement over his defense. That being said, he showed that he not only has the ability to be a difference-maker at the plate, but that he could surprisingly be a plus defender as well. The Bad Despite Larnach’s .845 OPS in his first month, he finished with a final OPS of just .672. It’s not hard to imagine the steep decline it would take for such a drop-off. From June 1 forward, Larnach posted a slash line of .222/.301/.320, a .621 OPS. The issues were completely obvious: Larnach stopped seeing fastballs. He hit .165 and slugged .215 against breaking balls in 2021 as well as .143 and .179 against off-speed pitches. 72% of his strikeouts came against pitches other than fastballs. Further complicating his struggles was an injury sustained after fouling a ball off of his foot. It’s hard to say whether the nagging foot pain contributed to the hitting woes, but after his demotion to St. Paul Larnach struggled mightily and played in just 10 games before being shut down for the season. What’s Next? With his significant struggles fresh in our minds, it’s understandable that the former top prospect has lost some shine in some fans' eyes. He’s shown a very significant weakness that will surely be abused at the Major League level over and over again until he shows he can overcome it. That being said, Larnach is far from the stereotypical slugger. Comparing him to a similarly tremendous slugger in Brent Rooker, for example, Larnach has a much better plate approach and his eye at the plate has held up at every stop of the minor leagues. He’s also been graded as having a far superior hit tool to Rooker, meaning more contact should be expected moving forward. He still has his issues to fix against the soft stuff, but his advanced offensive approach should prevent him from collapsing into the pool of hitters who can crush the ball on the rare occasion they make contact. These adjustments would likely be easier to make if he’s 100% healthy in 2022 as well. Larnach’s early showing defensively, especially in right field, is extremely encouraging. The Twins have a rash of depth in the corner outfield with more on its way in the minors. If Larnach can be more than just a body to put out there to get his bat in the lineup, he could easily grab that job if the necessary adjustments are made at the plate. These results also have to be encouraging for the front office, who will likely have to part with controllable pieces to get the arms needed to fill out the rotation effectively. Max Kepler has long been a rumored trade asset for example. While he’s had his incredible defensive seasons in right field, Larnach being competent at the position with a step up on offense would make Kepler much easier to part with. Larnach has possibly already shown more of a ceiling against left-handed pitching with 15 hits in 90 plate appearances against southpaws in 2021. Like much of the Twins 2021 season, Larnach’s year had an encouraging start only to collapse down the stretch. That being said, such tendencies are not uncommon when it comes to rookies getting their first taste of Major League pitching. He may not be as highly rated as a possibly generational hitter such as Kirilloff, but Larnach is a pure hitter capable of adjusting. Regardless of the teams’ plans to compete in 2022, he should spend a few months in St. Paul before getting another crack at cementing a roster spot for the next six years. Come this time next offseason, we may just be talking about Trevor Larnach as a staple in the heart of the Twins 2023 lineup. — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email — Follow Cody Pirkl on Twitter here View full article

It seems like a disappointing 2021 for the team has spilled into feelings of disappointment toward players who don’t deserve it. Josh Donaldson is perhaps the best example of this. Even for die-hard Twins fans, it’s easy to miss how impressive Donaldson still was in 2021. 2020 was admittedly a bad start to the four-year, $92m contract the Twins gave Josh Donaldson after whiffing on a big-name starting pitcher the offseason before. The former MVP missed more than half of the 60-game season with injuries including the best of three playoff series that ended in a whimper from the offense. Per game, however, Donaldson was the same star hitter he always has been, and he showed that across a much bigger body of work in 2021. For those unfamiliar with MLBs use of Statcast measurements, these numbers read in percentiles, meaning Donaldson is in the 99th percentile in average exit velocity, 95th percentile in barrel percentage, etc. In most offensive measurements, Donaldson’s raw skills were among the top 5-10% in all of baseball. For a season many considered disappointing, I think such a strong showing deserves some context. As you can see, Donaldson actually bested fan-favorite Nelson Cruz in many raw measurements in 2021 according to Statcast. It’s interesting to look at considering one of these players is discussed as the cornerstone of whatever lineup he’s in while the other is being discussed as a possible salary dump. Why might that be? 2020 Left a Bitter Taste 2020 was a season that likely had the front office wishing for a do-over on the largest free-agent contract the team had ever handed out. There was an understandable amount of frustration as the biggest addition to the team was nowhere to be seen for most of a season where the Twins captured their second consecutive division title only to be swept out of the playoffs once again. To make matters worse, those feelings of frustration had gasoline thrown onto the fire when Donaldson injured his hamstring on opening day 2021 and missed a chunk of time. For many, their minds were made up. Donaldson’s availability down the stretch was an incredible accomplishment, however, and showed that while his injury concerns are very much a reality, he’s still capable of being an everyday player across a full season. To once again make a Cruz vs. Donaldson comparison, DH Nelson Cruz played in 140 games compared to Donaldson’s 135 in 2021 which may surprise even the biggest Twins fans to hear. 2021 Was Unlucky The ongoing joke in 2021 was the continued use of the phrase “bad luck” as so much went wrong that it’s impossible to chalk it all up to misfortune. For Donaldson however, we have Statcast measurements saying his raw offensive ability hasn’t declined at all at age 35. His .247 average was much lower than his .268 expected batting average. His .475 slugging percentage was much lower than his .541 expected slugging. He also hit four fewer home runs than expected given the way he impacts the ball. His speed on the bases may be a partial explanation for these discrepancies but his hampered legs can only explain away a portion of these gaps in expected performance. If you aren’t a believer in expected stats, it’s still difficult to look back and be disappointed in his body of work that included a triple slash of .247/.352/.475, good for 24% above league average. Repeating that line would be just fine for 2022, but he appears to still have the physical capabilities to garner MVP votes if he can remain on the field as he did in 2021. So why point out Donaldson’s impressive performance in 2021? To be honest, he doesn’t get the appreciation he deserves. His impact would have essentially erased a disappointing 2020 in the eyes of fans had he performed exactly the same and the team hadn’t crumbled. Statcast says he could have performed even better. He’s talked about like he’s over the hill and his contract needs to be dumped before it’s too late so the Twins can improve. In reality, however, Donaldson is probably one of the three most important pieces of the Twins offense in 2022. Without Nelson Cruz, Donaldson is an important figure on the team not just on the field, but as a veteran-hitting savant who can have a huge impact on the upcoming prospects. It’s entirely possible that Donaldson’s health in 2022 could go the way of 2020 rather than 2021. That being said, at bat for at bat there still aren’t a ton of players you want in the heart of your lineup over Josh Donaldson, and he’s still a tantalizing talent that should have Twins fans looking forward to the beginning of the 2022 season. — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email — Follow Cody Pirkl on Twitter here View full article

Royce Lewis’ prospect stock has dropped precipitously the last few years as the Twins former top prospect has dealt with canceled minor league seasons and injuries. Just how far has the consensus on him declined though? Drafted 1st overall in 2017, Royce Lewis looked the part in his debut season as well as 2018. Unfortunately he followed it up with three years that significantly hurt his outlook in the eyes of many evaluators. We now have to look back nearly two full seasons to find the former top prospects last professional at bat. It’s important to note that 2019 wasn’t exactly a banner season for Lewis when he was on the field. He finished strong, earning MVP of the Arizona Fall League but was a below league-average hitter between A and AA ball. Questions were also starting to arise regarding his ability to stick at shortstop, the premium position that surely played a hand in his 1st overall draft selection. With such a gap in play, his prospect capital was bound to decline, but how far has it come down since the beginning of that 2019 season? Prospect rankings can be arbitrary and interchangeable, and there are tons of sources of all sizes that regularly provide them. Three such sources are MLB.com, Baseball America, and Baseball Prospectus, all widely respected evaluators of young talent. At the beginning of 2019, these three sources ranked Lewis 5th, 9th and 8th respectively just two years after he was drafted out of high school. He was one of the most anticipated prospects not just in the Twins system, but in all of baseball. As the calendar turns to 2022, however, MLB.com’s ranking has dropped from 5th to 35th. Baseball America from 9th to 82nd. Baseball Prospectus, who many believe to be the industry standard in evaluating prospects, went from ranking Lewis 8th to not ranking him in their top 101 at all. Royce Lewis has a lot working against him when it comes to these evaluators trying to make an honest assessment. It began in 2019 when many believed the excess movement in his swing was being exploited as he ascended through the system, a claim that was supported by his .231/.291/.358 batting line in AA. Also of note is the aforementioned question marks emerging about his ability to man shortstop long term as many had hoped when he was drafted. 2020 offered little opportunity for Lewis to address these concerns in his defense. While he was in “summer camp” with the Twins along with other top prospects, there was little visual evidence available for fans or prospect evaluators that could have been used to indicate any kind of development. 2021 did little to change the outlook, as hope of any development was dashed before it began when Lewis tore his ACL in the offseason. He was unable to get the reps that he so desperately needed to be able to access his loud raw tools. The Twins former #1 overall pick hit a snag in his development as plenty of top prospects do. In this case however, Lewis’ opportunity to adapt and progress had been interrupted by two straight seasons without game situation reps. This unfortunately is how one of the top prospects in all of baseball finds themselves plummeting out of top 100 lists. For what it’s worth, it’s not all doom and gloom with Lewis. For what seems like a significant amount of lost time, he’s still only 22 years old. MLB has a decent history of players like Kyle Schwarber, Dexter Fowler and Wilson Ramos who returned to form after torn ACLs just to name a few. Assuming his athleticism and explosiveness are intact, it’s entirely possible that a few mechanical tweaks could quickly put him back on a superstar path given the raw talent he’s shown in his young career. Reports have never waned from the Twins being incredibly bullish on their former top prospect. It’s likely that they’ll be aggressive to an extent in making up for lost time. He’s likely to begin 2022 in AA or even AAA in an everyday shortstop role in order to try to sort out his defensive future as quickly as possible. Even if the swing is still a work in progress, if Lewis shows an ability to stick at the shortstop position he’d likely be climbing back up prospect boards as well as the board of public opinion. One thing is certain, 2022 is the biggest year yet when it comes to the development of Royce Lewis. Lewis was added to the Twins 40-man roster following the 2021 season. It is a great thing for any prospect. However, until their is a new Collective Bargaining Agreement in place, Lewis will not be able to work at the Twins facilities or even be in contact with Twins personnel. Until there is an agreement, Lewis again finds himself unable to play. For that reason alone, Twins fans should want this lockout to end quickly. Royce Lewis does not need any more missed time. Do you think Royce Lewis’ consensus drop-off is too harsh after his two years away from competitive baseball? Does he have to use 2022 to earn the status of one of the top prospects in all of baseball again? Let us know below! More Twins Daily Content — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email — Follow Cody Pirkl on Twitter here View full article

The Twins may very well need an ace to feel good about competing in 2022, but they need quality innings as a baseline above all else. There are several interesting options that may be on the trade market that the team could check in on when the offseason resumes. There is no question that the Twins will need to make some additions to their starting staff when the offseason comes back, whenever that is. Many of the top free agent starting pitchers are no longer available. The Twins did sign Dylan Bundy to team with Bailey Ober and Joe Ryan in the rotation, but clearly they will add more. They may need to do so with some creative trades. Here are three such options that the Twins might consider. Kyle Freeland Freeland has been a serviceable pitcher throughout his career which is an impressive statement to make considering he’s spent five seasons in Colorado. Freeland owns a career 4.20 ERA which is a fair baseline of what to expect from the southpaw moving forward. He flew under the radar posting a 4.33 ERA in 2021 with 120 innings pitched and had peripherals to match. Even if he doesn’t get a bump from moving out of the worst pitching environment in baseball, Freeland would already slot in nicely as the Twins #3 in the rotation for a bargain in regards to payroll. At 29 years old, Freeland is due $7m in 2022 with another year of control in 2023. For the Rockies who have no shot at contending in the next two years, this is the exact type of player that should be shopped to get a hold of any type of young talent that could be a part of their next contending window while relieving some payroll. The Twins could easily put together a trade package consisting of young players far from the top of their prospect rankings. It may just be a matter of whether the Rockies front office comes to their senses and gets realistic about their future. Luke Weaver Much like Freeland, Weaver would be a multi-year acquisition. The 28-year-old right-hander has had an up-and-down career in terms of performance and health. The former first round pick sports a 4.64 career ERA and has averaged over a strikeout per inning in his six seasons. In those seasons, however, Weaver has eclipsed 65 innings only once and that was in 2018. For the right price, the upside could be worth the gamble. With a fastball averaging around 94 mph, a wipeout changeup, and 60-grade command, finding a way to work a full season out of Luke Weaver could have a huge payoff. The Diamondbacks are likely a bit more realistic than their division mates in Colorado, although it’s worth noting that Weaver is only due $2.4m in 2022. They have some nice pieces but don’t quite have a clear cut core in place to build around. Given Weaver’s injuries and contract status, they may see more upside in taking a few prospects that fit their timeline than gambling on Weaver and potentially losing. Like Freeland, there’s likely a prospect package that makes sense for both teams. Jake Odorizzi Despite his 4.21 ERA in 100+ innings last year, Jake Odorizzi may not have a rotation spot in Houston given their depth of young starting pitching. I can’t blame anyone who wants to turn the page on the Twins teams of the last three Twins seasons, but this former Twin fits right into the next steps of this organization. Odorizzi has shown plenty of signs of being the same pitcher he has been during his whole career. Vintage Jake Odorizzi would go a long way in shoring up a currently rookie-led rotation and provide some much-needed innings. Signed to fill in for an injured Framber Valdez last spring, Odorizzi is set to make a $3.0 million signing bonus and $5.0 million in base salary for 2022. He gets half a million for 100 innings and an extra million for 110, 120, 130, 140 and 150 innings pitched. In 2023, he’s due $6.5 million with a $3.25 million buyout. His stuff would likely play up in a bullpen role in Houston, but it’s likely to cause some waves with a pitcher who wants to start and may have already ruffled some feathers in the organization. It may just be mutually beneficial for all parties. The Astros save some money, the Twins add an arm, and Odorizzi gets to start. It seems like a match made in heaven. People’s interest in bona fide stud pitchers is understandable, but the Twins need quantity just as much as quality. Are there any middle of the rotation arms you’d like to see the Twins pick up before Spring Training? — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email — Follow Cody Pirkl on Twitter here View full article

It seems like an entirely different era of Twins baseball that included left-handed pitcher Devin Smeltzer. Forgotten by many since his rookie season in 2019, he still remains in the Twins organization. Will we see the soft tossing lefty again? The main return in the Brian Dozier trade from the Dodgers, Devin Smeltzer quickly worked his way up to the Major League club in 2019 and posted decent results for a division-winning team. Smeltzer totaled 49 innings with a 3.86 ERA even though his indicators didn’t quite back it up. 2020 and 2021 were disappointing for the left hander, as he totaled just 20 2/3 innings combined across nine appearances. His 2020 performance got him demoted to Triple-A by year's end and injuries derailed his 2021 season and eventually led to him being jettisoned off the 40 man roster. Smeltzer, however, passed through waivers and remains a Twin, awaiting 2022 in purgatory with no guaranteed roster spot. It seemed Twins fans soured on a pitcher who was at one time a fan-favorite with a great story. It may have been shinier prospects passing him by or his struggles paired with a lack of exciting stuff. The Twins are not likely to simply let go of the 26 year old so quickly. Successful soft tossers aren’t exactly common in the MLB, and Devin Smeltzer averaged 89 mph on the fastball in his rookie season with a steady decline the following two years. Look no further than right over the border at Milwaukee’s Brent Suter, however, as one example of how a pitcher with Smeltzer’s skillset can be used as a weapon. The left-hander threw 73 innings of a 3.07 ERA for the Brewers and was an important part of a very good bullpen on a playoff team. Suter has averaged anywhere from 84 to 88 mph on his fastball since his debut and has been serviceable in any role he’s found himself in since 2016. He’s well below league average in strikeouts and well above average at avoiding free passes much like Smeltzer. His lack of velocity is rare in today’s MLB and using him in short stints appears to have slowed down the league’s adjustment. The Twins likely had this in mind in 2021 when Smeltzer was buried in the depth chart, but injuries never really gave him a chance. It could also be argued that Smeltzer was on the verge of figuring something out across his last two years in the league. In 2020, he debuted a new slider which posted a whiff rate of over 27%. The result was a much improved K-rate nearing 21%, a manageable number for a pitcher who avoids walks and relies on weak contact. The walk rate increased a bit more than a pitcher of Smeltzer’s plan of attack would like, but it’s certainly something that could have been ironed out as he got more feel for the pitch. As underwhelming as Smeltzer seemed in 2020, his peripherals actually improved across the board from a 2019 debut that so many found encouraging. It’s possible Smeltzer was inching towards a new level that made him a reliable Major League pitcher for the next few years. It’s really discouraging that an elbow injury disrupted what would have been a tremendous opportunity for him at the end of a lost 2021 with so many innings available. It was likely a combination of his injury and the Twins' need for 40 man roster spots that led to Smeltzer being put on waivers. The move itself certainly doesn’t hint at the Twins prioritizing Smeltzer headed into 2022. Still, this is baseball. He’s likely to begin the season as a staple in the Saints rotation and I’d dare to call it likely we see him added back to the 40 man roster and called back up to Minneapolis again at some point. He’s the kind of player you can’t help but pull for, and he does have a respectable skillset to hang around and grab ahold of an opportunity that presents itself. His raw tools may make him a unicorn if he becomes successful, but it’s far from out of the question. Being off the 40 man may not make a comeback sound incredibly likely. For a Twins team that will likely be pitching starved again in 2022, however, it’s near impossible to rule anything out for a pitcher who’s already shown something at the Major League level. The book may not yet be written on Devin Smeltzer. MORE TWINS DAILY CONTENT — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email — Follow Cody Pirkl on Twitter here View full article

Having someone like Montas or Castillo would make the 2023 team better if they're on it and if that was the plan it makes such a trade better. The problem is the front office showed with the Berrios trade that A. They're not going to extend a pitcher like that for any realistic amount of money it would take and B. If the team stinks at the deadline and they have a high end pitcher with one year left of control, they're trading them. That's where I worry about some disgusting cycle of trading a bunch of prospects for arms and then cashing them in again right away for more prospects if the team disappoints. They should just pick a lane.

Here's my issue with essentially trading Berrios for Montas: that in a vacuum doesn't accomplish much for 2022. It adds one single reliable pitcher to a rotation that I'd argue has zero as of right now. Are they going to empty the entire farm system and get 1-2 more high level pitchers? I doubt it. So what's the point? The front office talks about sustained success all the time. I don't see how trading top prospects we just got in another trade just so we have one solid arm on likely another sub .500 roster fits that model. Let these guys develop and see what we have for 2023.

Acquired by trade last July, Austin Martin has quickly found himself at the center of trade talks once again for a Twins team short on pitching. The Twins, however, shouldn’t be so quick to flip their newly-acquired top prospect. It’s reasonable to look at Austin Martin and see a valuable piece that the Twins could use to acquire some pitching, but there are several reasons they shouldn’t be looking to do so. Redundancy is Overrated One argument that can be made is that Martin doesn’t appear to be a future shortstop and his future in center field is blocked by the Buxton extension. This could wind up leaving Martin in a utility role. The Twins already have Luis Arraez in a similar position, however, with other players like Jose Miranda and Royce Lewis coming up who could find themselves in a similar spot. It makes sense to deal from a place of depth, but Martin could bring a lot of value backing up Byron Buxton in center field and Jorge Polanco at second, two players with significant injury histories who could very well miss time at any point moving forward. Luis Arraez can’t fill in for Buxton in center and is stretched at second, not to mention his own injury worries as well. Martin is a younger, healthier, higher floor and likely higher ceiling option than most players that find themselves in a possible platoon role. Not to mention these issues that involve “too much depth” always find a way to work themselves out when it comes to baseball. His Value Isn’t That High Potential MLB caliber shortstops are one of the more valuable assets a team can have in their farm system. It’s a big part of what led to Martin being chosen so high in the draft and what could make him an enormous trade piece moving forward. Tom makes a good point in regards to Martin’s trade value: Tom’s reasoning behind this is solid. Austin Martin’s 2021 has gone a long way in proving he’s not a future shortstop. Twins fans should be on board with trading him if a team still looks at him as one, as the return would be that much better for a player that’s unlikely to reach that ceiling. Martin was a longshot to be a future shortstop at the trade deadline, however, and didn't do much to change that idea after the fact. I’d be shocked if a team is still all in on this idea. A team such as the Reds who are in need of a shortstop of the future would likely be more open to paying a higher price to gamble on Royce Lewis panning out at the position because he hasn’t proven otherwise yet. Trading Austin Martin to a team that believes him to be an outfielder or second baseman wouldn’t bring back all that much relative value. Musical Chairs There isn’t a lot of baseball logic that goes into this one, but it just feels unproductive to trade the Twins best pitcher for two prospects and turn around and trade the biggest name for a different pitcher who likely won’t be any better than Berrios. Sure, the Twins will have gotten Simeon Woods-Richardson out of the deal, but it’ll cost other prospects in addition to Austin Martin to acquire any of the big names on the market. If there was any enthusiasm about extending one of these arms after acquiring them then it could be worth the price. It’s hard to find that enthusiasm however and the likelier outcome is trading such a pitcher away at the 2022 trade deadline if the team finds themselves in a similar situation as last year. It runs the risk of beginning a cycle that doesn’t sound all that fun to be honest. The Twins liked Martin enough to acquire him as a big piece of the Jose Berrios trade and he’s been about as advertised since then. To turn around and trade him for another pitcher with two years of control (the majority of the high-end pitchers on the market) just seems like shuffling deck chairs on the Titanic. It essentially just swaps out a couple of prospects for a new pitcher who’s likely on Berrios’ level and still leaves a gaping hole in the rotation. It’s possible Austin Martin doesn’t become the star he was projected to be when drafted. He’s still an MLB-bound player with incredible pure hitting skills and versatility. He could easily settle into a position for the next 5-6 years and be an example of how not quite everything in 2021 went wrong. It’s going to be interesting to see how the Twins front office tries to wriggle out of their own self-inflicted mess with the pitching staff. Players on the verge of bringing some much needed excitement to Twins Territory such as Martin should be off the table unless there are extenuating circumstances. Austin Martin should be wearing a Twins jersey by 2022 season’s end. — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email — Follow Cody Pirkl on Twitter here View full article

It was a nightmare 2021 for Randy Dobnak. A massive opportunity was missed due to injury and general struggles. Even after a disappointing season, a massive opportunity awaits Dobnak on a pitching-needy 2022 Twins roster. The Twins offseason did not leave a great taste in the mouths of the fanbase before the CBA lockout commenced. The only addition to a rotation in need of at least three more reliable options was rebound-candidate Dylan Bundy with few high-end free agent options left. As a result, it sounds like the Twins could lean heavily on internal options. Much attention is rightfully drawn to the shiny prospects we haven’t seen yet, but people seem to be forgetting about Randy Dobnak. Dobnak’s popularity comes from more than his entertaining story and killer ‘stache. He was leaned on heavily down the stretch in 2019 en route to a surprising division title. He posted a 1.59 ERA in 28 1/3 innings as a whole and got off to a similar start in 2020. After a miserable 2021 where his ERA neared 8, however, why is Dobnak first in line for an opportunity? For starters, his 2021 needs to be taken with a grain of salt. His grip on the slider was reportedly changed before the season, and it just never really took. His expected batting average on the pitch rose from .204 to .356. Before he could attempt to make the necessary adjustments, he injured his right middle finger, a pivotal body part in executing a pitch. Baseball being a game of adjustments, it’s safe to assume Dobnak will spend this offseason trying to figure out what went wrong. He’ll surely continue to tweak his signature whiff pitch and could always pivot back to his previous grip on the slider if all else fails. Health is also a factor, as it’s easy to see how a new slider could end up finding inopportune parts of the strike zone more often when the finger used to guide it is in pain. The Twins shut Dobnak down rather than having him continue to fight through it, so the hope is that the extra time he was given has him fully healthy and ready to compete pain-free in 2022. Dobnak has also already earned the trust of the organization, and for good reason. He was thrust into a Game 2 playoff start in Yankee Stadium during his rookie season. Despite the results, paired with how much he helped the Twins rotation in 2019 and 2020 far outweighs his struggles during a 2021 season where it seemed like nobody lived up to expectation. The approximate $9m invested into the contract that will keep Dobnak in Minnesota through 2026 isn’t incredibly high, but the Twins surely won’t call that a sunk cost just yet. The fact of the matter is Dobnak is probably somewhere in between the sub 2.00 ERA pitcher we saw when he debuted and the one that posted a near 8.00 ERA in 2021. He won’t be the savior that shores up the front of the rotation, but profiling him behind Bailey Ober and Joe Ryan isn’t absurd. He’s a groundball artist who limits home runs and walks which is more than enough for a pitcher to settle into a solid career on a good baseball team. The pitching pipeline does grow ever closer to the Major Leagues with pitchers like Jhoan Duran and Josh Winder finally having reached AAA. It appears there will almost certainly be rotation spots to contend for during Spring Training, however, and Randy Dobnak would be my odds on favorite to get some run early in the year. It’s easy to forget after a miserable 2021, but if handed a rotation spot, there’s a chance Randy Dobnak simply doesn’t give it back. — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email — Follow Cody Pirkl on Twitter here View full article