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jdoffing11

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Everything posted by jdoffing11

  1. jdoffing11
    I personally don't view the Reds as losers. I think they're big winners. Trammell was their top prospect and still has the tools to be great, but he was underperforming at AA. Pitchers like Bauer aren't out on the trade block everyday, and their direction is clear, playing to win in 2020. Sure they are 9 games under .500 but the Pythagorean W/L is 55-50, which suggests some bad luck. They're looking at a rotation of: Luis Castillo, a 26 year old who has to be the best least-talked about pitcher in baseball and even with Bauer is their ace Trevor Bauer Sonny Gray who was an all star and is having a great bounce back year in a hitter's park Anthony DeSclafani a solid back end starter who owns a 4.01 ERA this year The last spot could be filled by Alex Wood, who recently made his season debut coming off injury but is a FA after the year, a FA or trade acquisition or Tyler Mahle, a 24 year old who has pitched to a 4.93 ERA in 19 starts this season but has a 4.32 FIP. Sounds pretty good to me. Right up there with the Dodgers for best rotation, assuming the Astros can't keep Cole, which will be hard to do with Greinke's salary. The lineup has been pretty average this year, but with a couple smart FA signings and breakout years from guys like Senzel could be above average. Same goes for the bullpen, Iglesias is having a down year but they have some nice arms at the top, and a couple moves wouldn't hurt. To me, they put themselves in a great position for next year, in a division that no one has been able to run away with this year. And also they traded Tanner Roark, a back end of the rotation 2 month rental for the A's number 8 prospect who comes in at number 10 in their organization according to MLB.com. Not too bad.
  2. jdoffing11
    What can I say, Mets are gonna Mets. Brodie got himself so deep into this mess by making the Cano/Diaz trade and sending the message out of competing with this roster that he can't go back. I have read that they may resign Wheeler though, which makes for a pretty nice rotation. For the Giants, I'm taking a guess here but I believe the FO may have been instructed by ownership not to move the majors pieces of Bumgarner and Smith unless completely overwhelmed to give Bochy a shot at a wild card run in his last year, but let them trade more minor guys like Dyson (who imo shoudn't be considered minor), Melancon, Pomeranz etc. And if they give them the QO in the offseason, even if they walk they'll still get the draft pick compensation which would be in the ballpark of what they would've gotten at the deadline. They did amazing giving away Pomeranz and Black, and getting Dubon in return from the Brewers, who have an very weak farm system to begin with.
  3. jdoffing11
    You're not pulling a reliever you intended to finish the game with a 7 run lead. In case you forgot, all 4 runs scored at once. The lead went from 7 to 3 with one pitch. Poppen then got the next guy out while Rogers was warming which is why I say at least give him a leash of one more baserunner before you pull him, which would've given the entire bullpen an offday considering he'll be the one to go down to Rochester tonight. Having Dyson for tomorrow helps, but now you're likely without Rogers.
  4. jdoffing11
    The Yankees FO would be incredibly stupid to bank on Severino coming back off of a shoulder injury with setbacks and immediately pitching at a #1 starter level. The guy also has a career postseason ERA of 6.26. Meanwhile, they don't have any starter with an ERA or FIP under 4, and have gotten absolutely smacked around by the MLBs two best offenses in the past week. Even German, who was having a breakout year, has come crashing back down to Earth, with an ERA at 4.40 or higher every month since April.
  5. jdoffing11
    Personally, I hated pulling Berrios when Cruz came up to bat, it would've been a signature complete game shutout, his first of the year, but then I softened up a little bit realizing Poppen was going to get sent down after the game anyways. I also thought Rogers was brought in a little quickly. I sort of understand it given our history of bullpen struggles, but at the same time it was a 3 run lead and it is the Marlins. I would've left Poppen in until he let one more guy on base to try and keep Rogers available for tomorrow, unless they were thinking that with him warming up he wouldn't be anyways.
  6. jdoffing11
    Exactly. Because of the added offense, I don't think it makes them worse this year, but at the same time the past few years they've relied on having a rotation that has 4 or 5 really good starters, and now they're down to 2. If one of Kluber, Salazar or even Carrasco can come back and be as good as Bauer, then it would be a win for them this year, but Kluber and Carrasco were both already having awful years by their standards and Salazar hasn't pitched in two years, so I have little faith in that happening. And Puig doesn't do all that much for me either, he's the much bigger name but Reyes is the real win of the trade for Cleveland. Puig did have a terrible first month and has been much better since, but he's cooled off past couple of weeks, and his .777 OPS translates to just a 96 OPS+ from playing in Cincy.
  7. jdoffing11
    Personally, I don't love the trade for the Indians this year as much as most. No doubt the offense got better, but I think it hurts the pitching more than people realize. Bieber and Clevinger have become top of the rotation guys, but Plukto is not good, Plesac has pitched well but a 5.15 FIP suggest regression is coming from his 3.10 ERA, and then they are really counting on guys like Danny Salazar who hasn't pitched in 2 years, and Corey Kluber who wasn't exactly pitching well before his forearm injury to come back and pitch well this year. Because the Indians have proven to be very good at developing starters, I like this move long term better, getting Reyes as a legit power bat into the lineup, but at this point they're down to 2 trustworthy starters so I don't think it makes them all that much better.
  8. jdoffing11
    Possible they were only bluffing asking for Buxton but the Mets clearly don't have a clue as to what they're doing, so if they need Buxton it's a clear no for Syndergaard. As for Giles, the elbow thing may actually be good news as it could lower the price and there is no structural damage, but it would still be a big risk so I'd need to get at least 1 more bullpen arm if I get him.
  9. jdoffing11
    From the get-go, the Pressly trade was the only one I disliked because of that extra year of team control. He had been pitching really good, and I think Molitor overused him a bit, a mistake Rocco would not have made. And for Falvey and Lavine, the plan all along was to get rid of Molitor after the first year, and bring in their own staff, so it's even more surprising in hindsight that they didn't see the upside for Pressly with more analytics-heavy coaches. Anyways, if I remember correctly, Duran and Alcala were viewed pretty similarly at the time, with Alcala maybe being thought of as the better prospect. I'm not sure how I would feel if Alcala had the performance of Duran since joining the Twins, and I have been really encouraged by Celestino's play of late, but at the end of the day, 4/5 (with the Duke trade essentially being nothing for minor league depth) is pretty good. It's put us in a great position to buy this year, because we could get 1 or 2 really good players and still have a top 10 farm system.
  10. jdoffing11
    Not too scared of Alcantara, at least yet. Obviously potential there with him throwing mid to upper 90s as a starter and holding his own in the majors as a 23 year old, but we should be all over him. His FIP is 4.76, WHIP at 1.45, including walking over 4 per 9, hasn't gotten strikeouts yet, and he will give up some homers at 1.0 per 9. Still baffled as to how he got the All Star nod over Smith. Also, no mention of former Twins prospect Nick Anderson, striking out over 14 per 9 with a 3.92 ERA but 2.73 FIP? He might not be a Marlin by the end of the series. Our current from office has made a lot of good moves, but it's still mind boggling as to why we never gave him a look last September.
  11. jdoffing11
    Hats off to Gilberto Celestino, who has recovered nicely from a dreadful start to get his OPS over .700 for I believe the first time in the entire year! Still only 20, well below league average, with good speed and defense, I'd sure feel better internally about the Pressly trade if he can either make it up to the majors as a solid player or be used as a trade piece for a shutdown reliever
  12. jdoffing11
    The reason for having Schoop stick around is that he's solid playing second base, but more importantly depth. Say they get rid of him, and don't get an MLB infielder in return. Arraez becomes the starting second baseman and if he gets hurt then Marwin or Adrianza plays there everyday, leaving you with one utility player. Then, someone from any other position besides catcher could get hurt, and you're left with 9 guys to be the everyday starting lineup. Your bench consists of whoever isn't catching out of Castro and Garver, Astudillo (we all love him but his ABs this year haven't been good and I'm not comfortable with him playing anywhere else but behind the plate come October) and then either Cave if the injury is in the outfield, or Ronald Torreyes who has been hot in Rochester but got DFA'd and cleared waivers and hasn't played in the MLB this year. Usually these mid-season roster crunch things work themselves out with injuries, but in the case everyone is healthy in the lineup, you would either have to go with a 7 man bullpen or, because the only other guys with options are Buxton, Rosario, Sano and Garver, you would have to *gasp* send down Arraez until the expanded rosters in September.
  13. jdoffing11
    Anyone who looked at the upcoming schedules and realized the natural ebbs and flows of a 162 game season knew the lead wasn't going to continue to stay at 11.5. It may have come down quicker then some expected. And regardless of competition the Indians are playing at least a little better than the beginning of the season, we will find out soon how much is real. But the fact of the matter is the Indians also have a 15-21 record vs .500 or better teams (20th in league), and now play 23 of those games in a rown. Coming into tonight their record was 3 games better than their pythWL (calculates what your record should be based on % of runs scored vs allowed) suggesting luck and future regression (for comparison ours is 1 better). And that's against to this point by far the weakest schedule in the league (http://powerrankingsguru.com/mlb/strength-of-schedule.php). Last thing, we have 23 games left against teams on pace for 100 losses vs their 9. We also play head to head 10 times (7 at Target Field). Take care of those two things, and get another decent arm or two at the deadline, and we'll absolutely win the division.
  14. jdoffing11
    I agree with that, especially lately we seem to have lost focus against losing teams, something we can't afford if we want to win the division. Its why I said its up to us to beat those teams like we should. I will say, though, there is a clear difference in teams like the White Sox and Mets compared to the Royals, Tigers, Blue Jays, and Orioles. I'm completely satisfied taking 2 out of 3 from the Mets or White Sox, but in a tight division race anything less than 3 out of 4 or a sweep against the Tigers or Royals is disappointing.
  15. jdoffing11
    Its hard for me to say they are playing a lot better. Certainly they are winning, but we will see what happens when they stop playing Community College teams. Since June 20th they have played 5 games against teams that have a winning perecentage of above .380!!! In other words, they've played 22 of their last 27 games against teams on pace for 100 or more losses, and get 4 more games this weekend. The only team above .500 they played was us (they went 1-2 obviously). After this weekend, they only have 9 of those games left. We have 23. Its up to us to win head to head and focus in on stomping those bad teams.
  16. jdoffing11
    Friday and Saturday home vs Baltimore??
  17. jdoffing11
    I know we don't want to hear it, but I think its time to start showing some concern for Taylor Rogers, and realize that right now he's not the shutdown reliever we've seen in the past and want him to be. His ERA is still at 2.05, but his WHIP is now at 1.41, and coming into tonight was sitting at 1.31, which was right around where it had been in the 2 years prior to last. I do realize he has an incredibly high BABIP against, and that should balance itself out in time, but part of the reason that's so high is that opponents are just hitting the ball with good contact against him. Take away the 6 infield hits he's given up and his WHIP is still 1.14, up quite a bit from last year. In games where he's pitched at least 2/3 of an inning, he's given up more multi hit games than no hit outings. So something here is going wrong and needs to change. Maybe it's chasing strikeouts too much, who knows, but I hope he and Wes Johnson can figure it out.
  18. jdoffing11
    Was thinking the same thing about May in a tie game, when he hasn't given up a run in his last 8 or even hit in his last 6, with Hildy giving up runs in 3 of last 5. It also seems unlikely that they were just saving him for tonight, given the rarity of that these days so probably not the best play there.
  19. jdoffing11
    Sorry, I can see how the original comment was misleading, but I was thinking if he can keep close to this sort of performance, hitting homers every few games, keeping the average up by .300, at what point maybe in May or June do they decide he's seen enough pitching there, because in 2017, looking at gamelogs he spent 2 months in Cedar Rapids, or would they wait until much later like August or keep him there the whole year.
  20. jdoffing11
    Trey Cabbage was a 4th round pick out of high school, and still only 21, has made clear strides offensively every year in the minors between different levels of rookie and A level ball. He's off to a blazing start this year, 6-13 with 2 HRs in 3 games, and with this being the third year he's spent time in Cedar Rapids, any idea when he might get the call to Fort Myers?
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