Matt Braun

On Wednesday, Alex Colomé was asked to get six outs, something he had not done since 2017. The decision raises questions, specifically why did Rocco Baldelli decide, with a reasonably rested bullpen, to use his closer for two innings?Before getting into that, the decision by Baldelli to send his closer out for a second inning of work was not actually the result of a new philosophical change. Taylor Rogers made nine different appearances in which he threw at least two innings during the 2019 season. The reason for this was because the bullpen was made up of bubble gum, paper clips, and lost dreams. Also, Matt Magill. The rest of the team was performing well but the lack of reliable arms outside of Rogers had pushed Baldelli into getting creative with his relief ace. This forced a number of occasions where Rogers threw it back to the days of Goose Gossage and Lee Smith. Eventually, Tyler Duffey would prove himself to be worthwhile, and the additions of Sergio Romo and name redacted gave Baldelli the proper amount of firepower that had been lacking in the first half (just one of Rogers’ two innings outings would come after the month of July). Nonetheless, Baldelli at one point had adhered to an old-school mentality regarding his reliever use. This is not the 2019 Twins, though. While that team lacked trustworthy arms early in the season, the 2021 Twins are seemingly overflowing with them. The aforementioned Colomé and Rogers along with Hansel Robles all had at least 20 saves in 2019. Duffey, while deficient in the save department, has the sixth-lowest FIP among all relievers in MLB since 2019 (min. 80 innings). This is all a somewhat long-winded way of saying that Baldelli did not really need to use Colomé for two innings. So why did he? Now, Rogers, Duffey, and Robles all did pitch in the previous game, but even the most progressive manager would not use that fact as a deterrent. Relievers can still be effective on no days' rest after all. However the most crucial name on that list is Rogers. His struggles as a reliever pitching without rest have been well documented. His career ERA with zero days rest is 4.01 while with one and two days rest his career ERA is 3.26 and 3.22 respectively. Baldelli understands this and knew that Rogers on that particular day would likely not be at his usual self. Avoiding using him would be ideal. With a good deal of certainty, I can say that Baldelli’s decision to use Colomé for two innings was an aid to Rogers. He understood that his other best relief choice in that situation simply lacks the ability to be consistently great in back-to-back games and opted instead to use his next best reliever in a multi-inning role in order to best guarantee a victory. I believe there is a second reason behind this decision but I will admit that this one is more conjecture than anything. We know that teams will struggle in 2021 to procure the innings total needed from their starters to finish a full 162 game season after the shortened 2020 year capped how often pitchers could throw. However, there may be a similar shortcoming in the bullpen. Relievers ultimately do not throw as many innings as starters but they just as well were not able to reach their totals from previous years. They simply have not been able to throw the 60+ stressful innings that they are accustomed to. Baldelli knows this as well. His solution to this problem looks to be to consolidate the burden onto just one or two relievers instead of running the entire group into the ground. He believed that it was better to add two innings to Colomé’s arm while he was fully rested rather than forcing another reliever to pitch without rest. I come to this conclusion because I find it unusual that Duffey was not the one used for the eighth inning. Yes, he pitched in the previous game, but he threw a pretty negligible total of just 12 pitches. He should have been ready to go in the eighth inning of that game. Baldelli had not previously shown any hesitancy to utilize Duffey in that specific bridge-type of role. Not calling in Duffey, who has been arguably better than Colomé since the beginning of 2019, seems like an unusual decision to me. Neither reliever ultimately bests the other when it comes to platoon splits and the sample size in 2021 is too small to determine who should be more “trustworthy” based on recent outcomes. To me, there is a grander process at play. Great stuff, Matt, you typed a lot of words but what is the ultimate point? That’s a fair question to ask. Truly, I’m not sure. Perhaps this is way over-analyzing one singular managerial decision (it was just one outing, after all). If Baldelli fails to make a similar move the rest of the season then no one will likely remember it outside of extreme nerds and dorks. But, when someone is sent out to do something they had not done in nearly four years, well, I find that to be too interesting to ignore. The addition of Colomé has given the Twins their best 1-2 reliever punch since Joe Nathan and Juan Rincon. What will be notable going forward is seeing whether Baldelli leans on using them in succession or if he uses one to alleviate the other in order to give himself backup for the next day. Essentially, will Baldelli use both shots in one game or save the other for later? We will have to wait and see. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

Who do we think will win the World Series and which players will take home some special hardware?Twins Daily Staff Predictions: National League Twins Daily Staff Predictions: American League World Series Champion: Dodgers Oh wow, that’s a really risky pick there. The team that, on paper, will give most All-Star rosters a run for their money is going to take home the piece of metal at the end of the year? Who could see such a thing coming? I mean, what else is there to say about the Dodgers that has not already been written about ad nauseum? After doubling down last off-season by acquiring former MVP Mookie Betts, the team doubled down yet again and added the spinmaster general himself, Trevor Bauer, in order to create the most unholiest starting rotation man has ever seen. The Pitching Ninja gifs that this staff will create will be written about and read in the future as we today read about the Call of Cthulhu and the Old Testament. The only factor going against the Dodgers (outside of pressure from the Padres) is that no team in MLB has won the World Series in back-to-back years since the 1999-2000 Yankees. As for regular season success? Their win over/under is set at 102.5. Enough said. Author’s pick: I chose the Padres not necessarily because I think that they’re the best team in MLB but more so because I think they might be the most fun team in the league and that should count for something (it does not, indeed, count for anything). Full Results: Dodgers: 13 Padres: 3 Yankees: 3 Twins: 2 Braves: 2 NL MVP: Tie between Juan Soto, Mookie Betts, and Fernando Tatís Jr. Hey, now there’s an interesting result! Not only did we end up with a three-way tie for the award, but Ronald Acuña Jr. and his four votes made this a solid four-man race. The lack of a Mike Trout-like presence means that the winner of this race will be decided by the essential philosophies of the voters. Juan Soto is the best hitter of the bunch, but he can’t field his position well and how valuable is an elite corner outfielder on a Nationals team that is utterly destined to be mediocre? Fernando Tatís Jr.’s sneezes have more talent than I possess in my entire body but he still has yet to play more than 90 games in a season. Mookie Betts is probably the safest bet but he could get overshadowed on a star-studded Dodgers squad that has two other MVPs already on the roster. Ronald Acuña Jr. has as much upside as any other player in baseball but just simply lacks a true completely dominant season as his WAR totals have always been somewhat depressed due to mediocre fielding statistics. Yes, these are nitpicky but we had no choice but to split hairs when there are so many great options to choose from. Author’s pick: I chose Acuña Jr. because he became a more all-around hitter in 2020 (18.8% walk rate!) and, more so than any other choice, possesses the elite, toolsy ability to completely dominate the game in a way that ever so slightly one ups the other incredible players in the NL. Full Results: Juan Soto: 5 Mookie Betts: 5 Fernando Tatís Jr.: 5 Ronald Acuña Jr.: 4 Corey Seager: 2 Francisco Lindor: 2 NL Cy Young: Jacob deGrom This pick was so obvious that when I filled out the form, I wrote “Jacob deGrom (duh)” because, well duh. deGrom inarguably has been the best pitcher on the planet since the start of 2018. Name any stat and he’s the guy at the top of the leaderboard. fWAR? deGrom. ERA? deGrom. FIP? deGrom? Innings pitched? Yeah, you get it. deGrom was well on his way to winning his third straight Cy Young award until the odd 2020 season paved the way for Trevor Bauer to swipe the hardware. That’s not to say Bauer was not deserving. He bullied and harassed hitters all season and was well deserving of the award. Still, it’s hard not to think that deGrom would have won it yet again if the season was the standard 162 game affair. A more interesting question here is how much does a third Cy Young award change deGrom’s place among the historically great starting pitchers? A third Cy Young win would place him with Clayton Kershaw, Sandy Koufax, Pedro Martínez, Jim Palmer, Tom Seaver, and Max Scherzer. That’s a lot of greatness. Author’s pick: The guy throws 102! As a starting pitcher! Human beings should not be able to do this! Full Results: Jacob deGrom: 18 Walker Buehler: 2 Brandon Woodruff: 1 Jack Flaherty: 1 Luis Castillo: 1 NL Rookie of the Year: Ke’Bryan Hayes Here we reach one of the only reasons why anyone would willingly watch the Pirates in 2021. I mean, I’m shocked that showing this team on television isn’t banned by one of our many peace treaties or something like that. Anyways, Hayes put up a 195 wRC+ over 95 plate appearances and has continued to absolutely destroy the ball in spring training. This along with his elite prospect status places him at the very top of the list when it comes to those who will likely win this award. Also of note: Sixto Sánchez, who throws 100, was great last year for the Marlins, and is named “Sixto”. I don’t think his case requires much more of a description. It is somewhat interesting that Ian Anderson only came in third in our voting despite putting up a 2.54 FIP in 2020 while throwing about a hundred straight scoreless innings in the playoffs for the Braves. Author’s pick: Ke’Bryan Hayes. And I fully stand by what I said about the Pirates. That team is going to be bad. Full Results: Ke’Bryan Hayes: 9 Sixto Sánchez: 6 Ian Anderson: 4 Dylan Carlson: 3 Cristian Pache: 1 AL MVP: Mike Trout Mike Trout. Author’s pick: Mike Trout. Full Results: Mike Trout: 16 Shohei Ohtani: 2 Aaron Judge: 2 Tim Anderson: 1 Matt Chapman: 1 Bo Bichette: 1 AL Cy Young: Gerrit Cole Man, we really need some true contrarians on this site. Wow, the two best pitchers in the league are going to win each league’s respective Cy Young award, next you’re going to tell me that the Pope is Catholic. Anyways, Cole’s case more or less speaks for himself. He’s been a strikeout machine ever since the Astros taught him how to totally legally raise his spin rate better harvest his skills and shed whatever nonsense they were feeding him over in Pittsburgh. He then turned two ridiculous seasons with Houston into over $300 million guaranteed with the Yankees and will now have the honor of being viciously booed by New Yorkers as a future overpaid 37-year-old. What’s more interesting to me at least is the battle for second place in the Cy Young race. The triumvirate of AL Central aces all have strong arguments for why they could potentially overturn the results that so far favor Gerrit Cole. Maybe the mail-in ballots will favor Shane Bieber. Author’s pick: Gerrit Cole. Bieber was a close second, though. Full Results: Gerrit Cole: 8 Kenta Maeda: 4 Lucas Giolito: 4 Shane Bieber: 4 Tyler Glasnow: 3 AL Rookie of the Year: Randy Arozarena When my own dad texts me out of the blue to say that “Arozarena is mythical”, you can tell this guy is something else. He somehow has just 99 career regular season plate appearances but broke everyone’s brains when he made a mockery of pitchers in the postseason. Arozarena bashed 10 homers throughout the entire playoffs and really didn’t even seem to be trying too hard while he did it. The names after Arozarena represent one of the more disputed awards that we have analyzed today. Besides Arozarena, the only other player to receive more than two votes was Jarred Kelenic (who officially will not start 2021 in the majors). This race is pretty wide open, as even Arozarena is far from a guarantee to repeat his monstrous total 2020 performance. Author’s pick: See, now I chose Casey Mize in part because I really do think that he’ll be great in the future but also I believed without any doubt that Arozarena had lost his rookie eligibility. Whoops. Full Results: Randy Arozarena: 7 Jarred Kelenic: 4 Alex Kirilloff: 2 Nate Pearson: 2 Ryan Mountcastle: 2 Wander Franco: 1 Casey Mize: 1 Dane Dunning: 1 Tarik Skubal: 1 Triston McKensie: 1 Nick Madrigal: 1 MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

Well now, that’s an awfully negative title, Matt. I know, I know. Look, I meant this as a sort of “hey, can we find any historical comps for what Royce Lewis has had to endure”? Or, more precisely; “are there any other first overall draft picks who have had similar experiences and still succeeded”? It wasn’t meant to be this depressing. Anyways, let’s find out.You all have probably heard the news by now. Royce Lewis tore his ACL after slipping on Texas ice and now will be out for all of 2021. That’s an unfortunate Mad Libs scenario if I’ve ever seen one but it’s real and so are the consequences. This injury is now yet another speed bump in the path that has tested Lewis’ status as a top prospect. From underperforming in 2019 to questions regarding his swing to lost development in 2020 due to a canceled minor league season, Lewis’ career has been proclaimed dead by some before he has even seen a major league pitch. But is that fair? Are there any other first overall picks who struggled or endured major injuries but still ended up succeeding at the major league level? Here is the list of every first overall pick in MLB. The list includes 55 players over 56 drafts (ex-Twin Danny Goodwin was drafted twice and is the only player to accomplish this). We have some familiar names like Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, Bryce Harper and, of course, Joe Mauer. Oh, and we also have Delmon Young. Hope he’s doing well these days. Let’s begin by looking at the players that share Lewis’ position; shortstop. That leaves us with Dansby Swanson, Carlos Correa, Tim Beckham, Justin Upton (who was apparently taken as a shortstop, did not know that!), Matt Bush (yikes), Jennifer Lopez’s husband, Chipper Jones, Shawon Dunston, Bill Almon, and Tim Foli. Let’s narrow down that list a bit more to just include the players who were All-Stars (my arbitrary definition of “successful”). Doing so gives us just Correa, Upton, A-Rod, Jones, and Dunston. Immediately, Lewis is in some trouble. All of the “successful players” debuted no later than three years after being drafted. All five players were also, if not outright the youngest player in the league at the time of their debut, among the youngest players in the game in their rookie season. Lewis will now be at least 22-years-old when he makes his debut. It may seem aggressive to deem that “too old” but debuting that late as a high school shortstop puts him in a similar category as Tim Beckham, and you do not want to be in a similar category as Tim Beckham. Maybe only looking at shortstops is too narrow. Let’s expand the list to include every All-Star position player. That adds Bryce Harper, Joe Mauer, Adrián González, Josh Hamilton, Darin Erstad, Phil Nevin, Ken Griffey Jr., B.J. Surhoff, Darryl Strawberry, Bob Horner, Harold Baines, Jeff Burroughs, and Rick Monday to the list. Everyone on this list again debuted within three years of being drafted with the exceptions of González and Hamilton. González does provide a bit of good news for Lewis and Twins fans alike. González was taken first overall by the Marlins in 2000 as a high school first baseman but never hit at an overwhelming level while in the minors. His OPS topped out at .868 in 2001 but he tended to hover around the .660 mark during his time in the minors. A wrist injury in 2003 convinced the competing Marlins to deal him for help at the deadline and so González joined the Rangers. The injury plagued him for much of the next two years as it was only diagnosed after the season and González rushed the rehab. He didn’t play much over two seasons with Texas and was dealt for the third time in his career, this time to San Diego. González hit well in 2006 and would eventually become a strong middle-of-the-order presence on three different squads for nearly a decade. González retired in 2018 with a career .843 OPS, five All-Star selections, four Gold Gloves, and two Silver Slugger awards. So is there hope for Lewis? Potentially. The history of first overall shortstops who took longer than three years to reach the majors is certainly not pretty. Adrián González, however, proves that a first-overall pick can both struggle in the minors and suffer a significant injury while still becoming a great MLB player. The cards may be stacked against Lewis but history shows that it may still be possible for him to turn it around and become a great player at the major league level. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

Not sure who this "Matt Baun" fellow is but he sure sounds fishy

Now, I really did not want to write this but I thought too much about it and whoops! Here we are.The past few days have seen no less than a million arguments from baseball fans, ex-players, and talking heads on the role of analytics in the sport. All of this was sparked by the decision by Kevin Cash to remove his starter, Blake Snell, in the 6th inning of game 6 of the World Series. Given that we all already have strong opinions on everything as is, this decision specifically sent everyone into a mad frenzy. What were we mad about? Analytics! The bastard had ruined the aesthetic of our game and directly led to the fall of Rome Rays losing in the World Series. Never mind that analytics got them to the World Series in the first place, or that they lost to a team that is also analytically-driven, or that their offense could only score one run against the Dodgers’ myriad of pitchers in game 6. But I digress. This leads me to a crucial question; what does the term “analytics” mean? Anyone? “Analytics” has become sort of a “woo-woo” buzzword among fans and figure heads when it comes to the game of baseball. It describes a sort of magical new-age thinking that can be hard to pin down but is absolutely understood by all who watch the game. Some of this stems from the fact that we don’t know the majority of what teams are looking at because those secrets remain locked behind closed doors. Instead, a lot of what we now understand as “analytics” stems from people like Bill James and Billy Beane through the quite famous story of “Moneyball”. “Analytics” became synonymous with a sort of “different” decision-making. One that ignores traditional baseball logic. While this understanding is partially correct, some of this basis is misguided. "Analytics" in its most basic form is quite simple. For starters, utilizing a platoon would count as analytics. Bringing in a left-handed reliever to face a left-handed batter would also count as analytics. Hell, as long as the lineup wasn’t set by pulling names out of a hat, then analytics played a role in that as well. All of these are choices that managers have been making since the dawn of the game but still fall under the umbrella of “analytics” just like using a hitter’s batted-ball profile in order to shift the defense against him. The only difference is the level of complexity. At the end of the day, analytics is just numbers and data. This data is then seen and interpreted by someone else who then makes a decision. At no point does any analytic choice pass through without any human engagement. Cash had to make the conscious decision to pull Snell. Even if a team decides to only go with the optimal strategy through analytics (which in itself, “optimal” is impossible to define), that decision was still consciously made by a human. Sort of like “if you choose not to decide, you still have made a choice”. Analytics is simply a tool available to anyone who wants to utilize it. Let’s get back to Cash and Snell. Immediately, taking Snell out became an analytic choice in our mind due to teams now being more aware than ever of the fact that starters tend to do worse the 3rd time through the batting order. This was also the reason Cash deferred to during the post-game presser. And yes, this is mostly true. As much as old pitchers and baseball dads like to complain about it, it’s a fact that most starting pitchers perform at a worse level when they face batters for the 3rd time in a game. (Here are two Fangraphs pages. The first consists of the stats of SP going through the order the first two times from 2011-2020 and the second has the same qualifiers but for the third time through the order.) The key word there is “most”. You shouldn’t apply a blanket concept to your players like that. Any decision to pull Snell has to be made with his personal splits in mind. Now, 2020 was a small sample but Snell actually performed a bit better the 3rd time through the order compared to the 2nd time (.379 wOBA allowed vs .407). Both numbers are awful, however. Career numbers paint a different story. Snell has allowed a wOBA of .263 when going through a lineup for the first time, a wOBA .309 when going through that same lineup a second time, and a wOBA of .321 when greeting those hitters for a third time. (For context, Ian Desmond’s career wOBA is .321.) Immediately, there becomes an apparent problem. What numbers do you look at? Cash knows Snell’s historic numbers as well as his recent ones. Which do you put more weight into and how much weight do you put into it? How does Snell’s recent injury history play into it? None of these questions even touch on the specific players Snell was set to face or how his replacement would fare against them as well or how rested his bullpen was or, well, I think you get the point now. This was also a hot topic among Twins fans during the playoffs. Rocco Baldelli pulled both Kenta Maeda and José Berríos after 5 innings each during their respective starts. Some saw this as “over-managing” (and in the case of Berríos, I agree). The point of this isn’t to actually prove whether or not Cash’s or Baldelli’s decisions were “analytical” or not because, well, all decisions in baseball are and always have been analytical. The only difference is that we have different numbers to look at. Putting your big bopper who rakes in RBIs is technically an analytical decision as much as it makes me want to squirm. The manager used data that he had available to make a decision that he thought was best for the team. Keep in mind as well that analytics are never perfect. No system of decision making is. The point of utilizing advanced methods of interpreting information is to improve your odds. If your odds of making a “good” decision go from 55 to 60 percent, then analytics have succeeded. But even that leads to a significant amount of scenarios where failure occurs. That’s normal. It happens in any event where someone must make a decision with random variables. All I want to do is try and steer the conversation in the correct direction. We shouldn’t be talking about whether analytics failed Cash and the Rays but instead whether Cash made appropriate decisions based on the information he had. It appears that the answer is “no” but we can never truly know as the situation only played out once. If Nick Anderson induces a double play and the Rays go on to win, then I doubt the conversation is as aggressive. But who knows? These types of discussions are what drive baseball thought and will be what continues to push the metagame of this beautiful sport. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

I'd like Clippard as well. This wasn't meant to be a set-in-stone type of idea but rather a blueprint that can guide which other relievers the team should target.

He's a soon to be 28 year-old reliever with a career ERA and FIP over 5. I think that's motivation right there.

I'm just following the boundaries set by the movie. David Justice and Scott Hatteburg had OBPs of .333 and .332 respectively in 2001, nowhere near the number they were looking for.

The film Moneyball was recently uploaded to Netflix. Naturally, I watched it the first day it was available because of how hard it slaps (and because it documents the last time the Twins won a playoff series). In it there’s a where Brad Pitt points out that the scouts were looking at their problem all wrong when it came to free agency. They were trying to replace Jason Giambi, the exiting MVP, instead of re-creating him.Giambi was an incredible player who held an eye-popping .477 OBP in 2001. There wasn’t a snowball’s chance in hell that the A’s could get a similar player at their budget so they decided to reconcile his loss with the other two position players they lost in order to recreate him. Instead of having to find a player with an OBP of .477, they just had to find three players with an OBP of .364 to even out the losses. Let’s apply this theory to the Twins and their bullpen. The team is set to lose Trevor May, Tyler Clippard, and Sergio Romo. Romo technically has a team option for 5 million but I’m assuming that the team will decline that. We’re going to use FIP as our guideline stat (read about it here if you don’t understand it). A quick rule is that you read it like how you read ERA. May had a 3.62 FIP in 2020, Romo was at 4.34, and Clippard came in at 2.65. Add those up and divide by three and you get 3.54. That’s the number that we’re looking to either hit or get close to. Here are three relievers who fit this criteria: Tommy Hunter Do you know who this is? Good. That just makes this an even better choice. Hunter is a reliever coming off three years in Philadelphia after bouncing around a number of teams. He was once on the Rays which should tell you everything you need to know. Hunter is mainly a sinker/cutter/curve guy who has been able to off-set the velocity loss that comes with old age by increasing the use of his breaking stuff. But let’s get down to the stats. Hunter had a 3.31 FIP in 2020 and a 3.63 FIP in 2018 (he missed most of 2019 so we can ignore that year). The average of those numbers comes out to 3.47 which is perfectly in the vicinity of what we’re looking for. At the age of 34 he shouldn’t be a majorly sought-after commodity but he can be a useful arm in the Twins’ bullpen. Greg Holland We all know who this guy is. As a part of the terrifying three-headed monster that was Kelvin Herrera/Wade Davis/Greg Holland, he crushed the hopes of Twins hitters with incredible ease. It’s been a bit more rough since those prime years, however. Four other teams employed Holland after he left KC to varying degrees of success before he re-joined the Royals in 2020 and found some of his old stuff. His fastball is no longer the crisp 95-96 that it once was but he sat at 93 on average in 2020 which is still respectable. Instead of the heater, Holland has leaned more on his slider recently and better results have followed. Combining his 2019 FIP of 4.76 and his 2020 FIP of 2.52 gives you 3.64. Again, that’s right in the sweet spot we’re looking for. Robert Stephenson We’re transitioning to a trade target for this one. Stephenson is a 27-year-old reliever on the Reds whose 2020 season was nothing but a disaster which is perfect for us. I actually also wrote about Stephenson when Twinsdaily profiled reliever trade targets in 2019 (man, my syntax really sucked back then.) My opinion on Stephenson hasn’t changed much since then. Stephenson is a failed ex-top prospect who now must find his footing as a two-pitch reliever. He throws his fastball at 94.8 MPH on average but mostly chooses to rely on his devastating slider (thrown at 65.9% of the time in 2020). The pitch resulted in a swinging strike 15.6% of the time in 2019. As I said before, his 2020 was a disaster (12.19 FIP over 10 innings!) but I don’t see this as a fair reflection of his ability. His 2019 FIP was 3.63 and that, once again, is exactly the kind of number we’re looking for. These three additions give us a FIP of 3.58; essentially the number we were aiming for (3.54). We’ve recreated the lost bullpen arms by finding value in veterans and potential cast-offs. Fangraphs hasn’t updated their crowd-sourced resource for predicting free agent contracts yet so I don’t have a great estimate of how much Hunter and Holland will cost. I can’t imagine it will be much, though. A 1-year deal for around 4 million for each feels about right relievers at their age. Stephenson on the other hand shouldn’t cost more than some low-level prospects. What do you know? Now the Twins have a bullpen again. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

Tampa Bay fits in well with this idea. They drafted Snell but signed Morton and identified Glasnow as a guy who needed adjustments. Pretty balanced method there.

Well, Kluber, Bauer, Clevinger, and Carrasco also came from other organizations. I think they just know how to identify and fix starters earlier than most other teams do.

Yes, you read that title correctly. There are major league teams out there who are *willingly* doing work for the Twins and they don’t even know it! Can you believe this? Well, you probably don’t actually and even I, the person who did the research, am somewhat skeptical. Rest assured, there are no fibs here.I got into a Twitter argument the other day about the Twins. Typically this is far from a notable event but for the first time in the recorded history of the internet, I actually reflected on what was said in the conversation. For context, here’s what I tweeted: I really just wanted to dunk on Cleveland for the laffs because, well, it’s just so damn fun to do that. Some people however commented that the reverse could be true for both teams when it comes to pitching, thus supplying the rain for my parade. Of course, Cleveland can just magically make incredible starting pitchers appear out of thin air while people have been bitching about the Twins’ pitching development since the dawn of man. The Twins have actually had a top three starting rotation by fWAR for two straight years now. The fact that people still find some way to be grumpy about that will never make sense to me. Anyways, I pondered this for a bit and soon realized that no one is actually correct. The Twins are actively avoiding using prospects in the starting rotation and they’re getting away with it. You don’t need a bunch of stats to tell you that starting pitching is crucial in baseball. Numerous scouts and executives have dedicated their entire lives to developing starting pitching because it’s just *that* important, especially in the postseason. The issue is that young starting pitchers are notoriously volatile when it comes to both performance and injury. Some of you may have heard of the term “TINSTAAPP” which stands for “there is no such thing as a pitching prospect”. Usually this is said after a young fireballer goes down with a forearm strain and meets with Dr. Neal ElAttrache. Patience is key when it comes to these arms but competing teams don’t have the time needed to keep running these lotto tickets out on the mound. They need another option. The Twins understand this and have acted accordingly. Quick question; which two starting pitchers for the Twins in the Falvey and Levine era have both: Been solely drafted and developed by the TwinsThrown more than 60 innings in a seasonThinking hard? Alright, I’ll cut you some slack. The two pitchers over the last four years are Kyle Gibson and José Berríos. That’s it. Gibson was also already an established MLB veteran when the new guys took over. Berríos is the only homegrown starter to newly entrench himself into the Twins starting rotation. The team has decided to make a number of established veterans the meat of their starting rotation. Players like Ervin Santana, Jake Odorizzi, Lance Lynn, Michael Pineda, Kenta Maeda and so on have been the main workhorses since 2017 (to varying degrees of success). This is effective for two main reasons; the first of which is that, well, veteran talent is always going to be a safer bet than unproven arms. You can argue about the “upside” that certain young arms provide in the long run but a bona fide grizzled veteran provides the kind of 401K peace of mind that a 23-year-old can’t. The second perk is that you don’t have to shove a young arm into an uncomfortable situation unnecessarily. Some starters like Ian Anderson on the Braves have been able to flourish immediately but these are rare exceptions. Having a balanced mix of talent acquisitions in the starting rotation has been a plan that other contenders have executed to success as well. Here’s a breakdown of the last three World Series winners and how they netted their top three starters: (Starters are ranked by innings pitched that season) 2019 Nationals: Stephen Strasburg - DraftedMax Scherzer - Free AgencyPatrick Corbin - Free Agency2018 Red Sox:Rick Porcello - TradeDavid Price - Free AgencyChris Sale - Trade2017 Astros*:Mike Fiers (awkward) - TradeCharlie Morton - Free AgencyDallas Keuchel - DraftedJust two starters among these pitchers were drafted and developed solely by the respective franchise they won with. Everyone else was obtained in free agency or through a trade. This doesn’t even include the famous Justin Verlander trade the Astros made to push them over the top in 2017. Sure, maybe the Twins can’t shed the idea that they can’t develop starting pitching. But they don’t really need to. They’ve decided instead to focus on making safe bets on veteran starters and improving internally only when the situation calls for it. They have made other teams expend the energy needed to weed out successful pitchers and then they plunder who they want. It’s a proven system of success and the team has no reason to abandon this plan for the immediate future. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

It is now the first day of the Championship Series and Fall has officially nestled itself deep into our bloodstreams. Maybe it’s the quaintness of the familiar cool breeze running through the hairs on our skin once again or maybe it’s the warm fortress that our homes have now morphed into, but something has created a sentimental mood that can’t be shaken.The 2020 Twins were set to be unique in the lineage of other Twins teams. Josh Donaldson was the biggest free agent the team had ever acquired, Kenta Maeda was one of the first truly great starting pitchers the team had traded for, and the offense was coming off a season in which they bashed 307 homeruns. For the first time in an era, it felt as if we had a team that could shake off the mistakes of teams past and absolve the sins of many failed postseason runs. Instead, a new reality imposed itself on us. While we were all punching our tickets to spring training in Fort Myers-the warm oasis that promises endless opportunities-an unfortunate truth became evident. This was not to be a typical season. All of baseball, the rest of the sports universe, and the world at large hit the pause button. Events were canceled or postponed and our homes became the bunkers from which we were forced to live in for an uncertain amount of time. Time had now stood still. The next few months proved to be an uncontained mess of anxiety. At times it seemed like a baseball season wouldn’t happen and at others it felt as if the entire idea of playing baseball was futile. It would have been a fun distraction from the misery and anguish happening everywhere in the world, but would that really be a good thing? Is ignoring our problems the way to handle them? Nevertheless, a season came to fruition. It was to be 60 games long with only regional opponents in the schedule and 16 teams would get to reach the playoffs if they performed well enough. This was about the worst thing that could have happened for the Twins. 60 games ensured that random, weird occurrences would clog the road in front of them. That’s the beauty of 162 games. There’s no hiding behind a few good players who could carry a team in the short term and beating up on bad teams would only open you to being exposed against better competition. In 60 games, though? Who knows. Even the Marlins made the playoffs. The Marlins for crying out loud. The 162 game season also provides ample time for player evaluation. Bad players have great streaks just as great players have bad streaks. 162 games allows for the equilibrium to be found and for the truth to be wrangled from the mess. There’s no such legitimacy in 60 games. An otherwise great player like Christian Yelich struggled relatively while random players like Dominic Smith flourished. Such occurrences speak more to the random nature of the game than the true talents of each player. And randomness is a team's worst nightmare. Especially for a team looking to add talent at the trade deadline. Luck is a mirage. It loves to promise one thing only for a different reality to become apparent afterwards. Yet, this is all a team can utilize when assessing players in 2020. The end result was a pretty quiet trade deadline. The Padres were the only franchise to carry the load as they acquired players like Mike Clevinger and Austin Nola to aid in their conquest of the NL West. The Twins, though? Like other competing franchises, they did nothing. They sat idly by and put their faith in the players they already had. It’s hard to blame them for this move. No self-respecting franchise makes impact decisions based on a 30 game sample size. Not in this era. All the team could reasonably do was sit and watch as an ultimately pointless trade deadline reached its conclusion and hope that they had the right players for a playoff run. It didn’t have to be like that. A normal season with normal games, normal rules, and normal, well, normality would have changed all of that. The team had already shown that they were fully in a win-now mode with the acquisitions of Kenta Maeda and Josh Donaldson. What would the next step have looked like? Another true ace? An Andrew Miller-type reliever who could have helped dominate in the playoffs? Just one more big bat in the lineup who could have come up clutch in a do-or-die playoff scenario? All we can do is speculate. We know how this played out in real life. Donaldson didn’t play in the playoffs due to a re-aggravated injury and a clearly hurt Byron Buxton was forced to start just one game (a full season would have allowed more time for these injuries to heal, by the way). The bats stayed cold, the team got swept, and the playoff ineptitude reached historic levels. Perhaps it's the blinding homerism that’s rooted deep into my blood but I haven’t been able to shake the sense that things would have been dramatically different in another present. A present that mimicked a season we’ve seen play out numerous times in the past. There is no Wild Card series in a separate timeline and perhaps the new opponents would have dropped a game or three against the Twins. Maybe they avoid an Astros team that is now clearly more of a contender than they received credit for. Maybe, maybe, maybe. For now all we can do is live vicariously through similar franchises like the Rays and re-watch old memories of the 1991 World Series victory and dream on what could have been. What could have been. And what actually happened. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

What is the most important hitting stat? It’s ok, this is just between you and me. There are no wrong answers here (besides RBI). Batting average? Homers? Maybe some wRC+ if you’re feeling spicy? Well, as someone who studied in The Church of Moneyball, I’m going to have to choose OBP. Today we’ll talk about a player who excels in this stat.You know LaMonte Wade Jr., right? The guy who knows the Rochester to Minneapolis flight like how I know flannels? You’d be excused if you forgot about Wade Jr. in the context of the Twins. He really has never been considered an elite prospect in the Twins' system. MLB.com’s prospect list doesn’t list him as a top 30 prospect for the team this year and the same is true for 2019’s list. FanGraphs was a bit more generous as he came in at 27 on their writeup for the Twins’ system in 2019. Here’s what they had to say about Wade: “Wade intrigues as the larger half of a corner outfield platoon. He’s not exactly tooled up, but he walks a lot — more than he strikes out against right-handed pitchers, in fact — and he’ll make up for some of what he lacks in power with rangy, corner outfield defense. It’s not spectacular, but there’s a clear role here.” That doesn’t exactly strike amazement into my heart, but they did say that there’s a clear role in his future which isn’t something that can be said about every other 27th ranked prospect. Also, Cody Stashak came in at 28 in their rankings and he’s had a solid career so far so these rankings aren’t fully foretold prophecies. Let’s dive into those on base abilities for a moment. Wade Jr. has walked at a 14.6% clip over his entire minor league career (480 games) while only striking out 13.5% of the time. His minor league OBP overall sits at .389. That walk rate would have made Wade Jr. the 10th best walker in MLB in 2019 (right behind Josh Donaldson!) and that OBP would have tied him with Freddie Freeman and Ketel Marte for 11th in MLB. That seems good! But using minor league stats in comparison with major league players is unfair. So what about Wade Jr.’s numbers over his short MLB career so far? His 13.3% MLB walk rate would still have him coming in at 16 in all of MLB in 2019, right behind Brandon Belt. Still pretty good! His MLB OBP of .336 isn’t too flattering but it’s over just 113 plate appearances. I have a good feeling that some more playing time would bump that number up even higher. So what’s the catch? Why hasn’t this on-base machine received a significant amount of playing time? Wade Jr. simply hasn’t been the power threat that a corner outfielder is typically expected to be. His minor league slugging percent of .407 would have him tied with José Iglesias for the 14th lowest rate among all qualified batters in 2019. Is ISO any better? Not really. His minor league ISO of .131 would have made him the 16th worst qualified hitter by that stat in 2019. Keep in mind that these are his minor league numbers, not his major league powers numbers which are much worse (granted in a smaller sample). A corner outfielder who doesn’t hit for power is a rare occurrence in MLB. Sorting all qualified outfielders over the last three years and ranking them by lowest slugging percent gives up a lot of names and most of them are not particularly flattering. Wade Jr.’s best MLB comps are guys like Adam Frazier, Nick Markakis, Dexter Fowler, Ben Zobrist, and Robbie Grossman (hey, I remember that guy!). None of those players are exciting names but they all have (or had) important roles on the teams they played on. For Wade. Jr, it’s going to be an uphill battle. He’ll be 27 when the 2021 season starts, he’s probably about the sixth or seventh choice in the Twins outfield, and his power numbers scream “middle infielder” instead of “corner outfield”. Short of having .030 points of slugging percentage magically appear, Wade Jr. will likely be an outsider on the Twins’ roster. That’s a real shame. Wade Jr. takes what we like to call “professional at-bats” and has an otherworldly sense of the strike zone. He’ll likely have to continue to claw his way into playing time if he wants to stick around in the future but don't let that distract you from the fact that he is a very interesting player. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

This is something that I’ve wanted to talk about for awhile. In fact, I was so inspired to write this that I completely ignored the article I was halfway through finishing. Whoops. Anyways, I wanted to talk about why I love watching José Berríos pitch.First and foremost, he’s nasty. I know this is baseball in 2020 so everyone is nasty, but just check out some of these pitches: Now that’s a curveball with demonic intent. Pretty sure that this pitch was made illegal by the Geneva Convention. It’s a shame none of you can see my face while typing because I am grinning like an idiot watching these pitches. Yet, there’s more to it than him just being plain nasty. A large part of my appreciation for Berríos is the fact that he was drafted and developed entirely by the Twins. That makes his experience unique. No other starter currently in the Twins’ rotation was drafted by them. Yeah, it’s been fun watching Kenta Maeda shove every few days. Ok, it’s been really fun to do that. But Maeda spent the majority of his time developing either in Japan or with the Dodgers. This Twins Maeda was already an established player. It’s like buying a guitar that’s been modified to look old and worn instead of beating up your own guitar over years. It’s just not the same. We’ve been keeping tabs on Berríos ever since he was drafted by the Twins in 2012. We’ve seen him rise to the top of prospect lists for longer than any of us have even likely thought about Maeda. That creates a connection. Then we of course watched Berríos get destroyed in his first MLB starts in 2016 before coming back in 2017 to find his groove. That creates a connection. I actually specifically remember his May 18th start against Colorado in 2017. He went 7 shutout innings while striking out 11 batters and it was the first time we saw the true overpowering ability he possessed. It was time to get excited. The final reason why I love watching Berríos so much is that he’s not perfect! It’s odd, why would I prefer to watch a player who wasn’t the very best in his field? When Jacob deGrom goes out and punches out 14 with mind-bending stuff, I’m obviously impressed, but ultimately unaffected. When Berríos goes out and occasionally gets kicked for 6 runs over 3 ⅔ innings, well, I can relate to that! Lord knows that I’m far from perfect at my own craft every single time I try. There’s a certain humanity to it-a vulnerability that attaches me to a player like Berríos. I want to root for him because I see a lot of me in him (to an extent, he still can throw about 50 MPH faster than me). Even his mechanics aren’t perfect. He’s all spinny and comes from kind of an awkward slingshot across-his-body angle. Yeah, get a load of Justin Verlander who was cyber-genetically molded to be ideal in every single way, big deal. Give me Berríos every single day of the week. I mean it. Sports are supposed to be an escape for most. We watch these games because none of us can hit like Nelson Cruz or run like Byron Buxton but, well, it’s fun to see people who can do these things! For me, there’s a lot of relatability in my favorite athletes and a lot of relatability in baseball as a whole. The entire game is centered around the premise that literally anything can happen on a given day. Gerrit Cole could get shelled today or Philip Humber could throw a perfect game. We don’t know! That’s part of the fun. But the sport offers everyone a chance to go to bed, wake up the next day, and try all over again. And the same is true for life. Even when we mess up we know that the sun will rise again tomorrow. Yes, Berríos is not a perfect pitcher. It would be better for the Twins franchise if he was but I personally don’t mind. Once you step back and realize that the games themselves are ultimately pretty meaningless, you gain a sense of attachment to the players personally. These people have families, dreams, aspirations, failures, and struggles just like all of us. They just happen to be incredible athletes. And once you learn to appreciate that, you begin to appreciate each player not as a player, but as a human. Click here to view the article

Eddie Rosario is a different player in 2020. A quick glance at his Fangraphs page might result in concluding that everything is normal, but do not be fooled. Rosario has embraced a slightly different style in 2020. Yes, unlike your ex who lies when they say they’ve changed, Rosario actually has.First and foremost, this is not “beat up on Eddie Rosario week” at Twinsdaily. Nick Nelson wrote his article about phasing out Eddie Rosario without realizing that I was planning on writing this one. Stuff happens. But I don’t care about drawing any grand conclusions about the future of a player. Rather, I want to explain the position they find themselves in after adjusting their playstyle. It’s been no secret that the Twins have been trying to edit Rosario’s approach at the plate basically ever since he reached the majors in 2015. His “swing at everything but also somehow hit everything” mentality has served him decently well. The team evidently believes that this same approach might be holding him back from taking another step forward. This step has yet to be taken. Believe it or not, Rosario in 2020 has actually begun to show some signs of change. His typically abysmal walk rate is now almost at the league average (8.1%) and his strikeout rate has continued to drop for the fourth straight season (12.8%). Rosario has also hit more balls in the air than he ever has in his MLB career (48.1%). Yet, his wRC+ on the year is just 101. What’s the issue? Well, while walking more, striking out less, and hitting more balls in the air is a great foundation for a breakout, there is still the small issue of what those batted balls are actually doing. Let’s go back for a quick second and check out Rosario’s plate discipline numbers first. His overall swing % is down to 53.2% (career 57.2%), which is probably good. But, his out-of-zone swing rate of 43.9% is actually up a tick from his career rate (42.9%). The issue is that he’s actually swinging less at pitches inside of the strikezone than ever before. Rosario is offering at just 70.9% of pitches inside of the zone, a drop-off from his career rate of 77.3%. Interesting. Now we can go to his batted ball profile. Rosario has never been a Statcast monster over the course of his career so far. He typically has instead worked with an “all-fields” approach that gives him more leeway when it comes to the quality of his contact. That being said, 2020 has been especially brutal for him. His xwOBACON (xwOBA on contact) is a paltry .333. That sits at almost .040 points below his average while being .045 points below the league average. If you’re still giggling at the acronym “xwOBACON”, just understand that Rosario is not hitting the ball in ideal ways to get hits. My best guess is that Rosario is watching more strikes go by which is putting him at a disadvantage in the count. Now, Rosario can counter this with his excellent contact ability, but the contact he is making in these counts is poor. He’ll run into an extra walk or two naturally but without the strike zone confidence of a Juan Soto-like player, he’ll get nervous when the count isn’t in his favor and prioritize any contact over good contact. Jack Morris might be a fan of this, but the numbers aren't. And who would you rather listen to? The Twins may actually want to urge him to strike out more. It seems counter-intuitive but his current batted-ball profile isn’t ideal. Of course, I’m just some guy on the internet so maybe the Twins shouldn’t listen to me. All I know is that Rosario has changed his approach with results aiming slightly to the negative. Maybe this is just a mini slump or maybe this is one of the adjustments that ballplayers so often make. This current path looks like it still needs a tweak or two however before Rosario can get back to form. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article