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Jim Hahn

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Everything posted by Jim Hahn

  1. Jim Hahn
    This is an interesting and well reasoned post but I don't know that I quite agree with your main point. While the best regular season team in baseball won the World Series this year, it really doesn't happen all that often that the 2 best teams get to the World Series or that the best team wins the World Series. There are a lot of reasons for this. Often the teams best constructed to win a lot of regular season games, are not necessarily best constructed to winning a short series against other nearly as good teams. Things such as a deep starting staff, a strong 40 roster to help withstand injuries, even a deep bullpen, is often less valuable in the postseason. Matchups are a big deal in the postseason. When the Twins lost those series to the Yankees in the early 2000's part of the issue was that the Twins left handed hitting lineup was neutralized by the Yankee left handed pitching. Another factor is that teams change during the year. A team can be a lot better by the end and total wins won't reflect that. The biggest thing though is that because of the number of games played there often isn't as much difference between a 90 win team and a 100 plus winning team as many people assume. It is a little like the difference between a 12 win team and a 10 win team in the NFL. There can be a difference but strength of schedule and other factors reduce the importance.
  2. Jim Hahn
    The "problem" with many prospect lists is that they value ceiling way more than floor. Often ceiling when talking about very young prospects seems rather unrealistic to me. Often ceiling seems to be "we don't know what he can't do yet so we assume he has no weaknesses ". An example of a prospect who is probably undervalued is Rortvedt. He appears to a catcher who is very good defensively and may provide above average offense as well. If he reaches that "ceiling" he becomes very valuable , all-star level perhaps, because few catchers are able to combine offense and defense. Yet, he gets little run in these lists even though he fairly close to the majors and has made noticeable improvement each year. It is all because of preceived ceiling although he is more likely to reach his ceiling than most ahead of him. I enjoy reading prospect lists, but I don't take them too seriously. Eventually prospects have to prove it on the field .
  3. Jim Hahn
    I don't believe the FO is going to avoid trying to improve the team. What they are not going to do is make that big splash move like Kansas City did when they traded 2 of their best prospects for James Shields. That move worked in that they won the World Series. They also ended up with only a 2 year window to win the World Series. Now Kansas City is quite a ways from being a competitive team and need a lot of things to go well for that to happen in the short term. Personally, I want a long term situation where the Twins can be a legitimate contender for the postseason every year. If that happens you should get your shots at the World Series from time to time. If what Levine is saying is that they won't trade 2 of their best prospects for a short term fix at this time, I am ok with that. If he is saying that they won't go after the most expensive free agents this year,I am ok with that. I would expect that shouldn't preclude the Twins from trying to make the team better.
  4. Jim Hahn
    So, just when was Buxton ever untouchable? Maybe you are remembering different than me, but no prospect is ever untouchable. Once you get to the majors your performance dictates just how untouchable you really are. Trading Buxton now is certainly possible but his potential is so at variance with his performance that the return will likely fall short of of being prudent move for the Twins.
  5. Jim Hahn
    It's kind of easy to be disappointed, frustrated, and concerned about what the future holds for Buxton and Sano. But the incredible talent both of those guys possess. If the FO doesn't have a bit of patience concerning those two, they will likely be making a mistake that could set the franchise back for years. I suppose it is possible that either or even both will never stay healthy or figure it out. I actually think that is unlikely. The easiest, quickest way for the Twins to become a very good team is for the young core to reach their potential. I rather hope this FO is smart enough to give this group a little time to see if that can happen.
  6. Jim Hahn
    I rather liked Stewart better than Gonsalves during their debuts this fall based on stuff. Neither probably missed enough bats, but Stewart really limited hard contact. Even when struggling with control and/or his secondary pitches, he wasn't hit hard very often. Gonsalves appears to need very sharp command if he is going to effective in the majors. The reports that he was further along in understanding how to pitch compared to Stewart appear accurate. I don't know if either is ready for the majors but I think both are pretty close. I think both should be able to start in the majors with Stewart having the higher ceiling.
  7. Jim Hahn
    Gordon is a given. I am not so sure about anyone else. I would think Wade will likely be protected as well. After that it really comes down to upside, need and intangibles. I could see any of Quesada, Cutura, Navarretto, Wiel, Stashak, and Rameriez being added. Arraez and Jay are special cases. If Jay has lost his velocity as rumored, he probably doesn't get protected. I think Arraez gets protected only if they think he can add power. Singles hitters without speed and no real position aren't very valuable. 300 hitters with even moderate power, are going to have a place in the majors.
  8. Jim Hahn
    Good post. I especially agree with points 1 and 2. I thought the Brewer/Dodger series probably turned when Miley was pulled when he gave up that single after retiring 16 straight batters. The Brewers got out of that inning all right, but they went to their bullpen earlier then they probably had to. Miley was still pitching well and had more in the tank. If you run 4 or more relievers out there, the odds increase that one won't be on his game. Relieving a starter before he runs into trouble,or shows he is losing his stuff or has reached his pitch limit, seems foolish to me. Even in a playoff game it is overmanaging and will often lead to trouble. Your 2nd point is good as well. Contact skills and on base skills are under valued. Most of the new stats value power above on base skills. Not too many years ago many new stat guys were saying that not making an out was the most important thing a batter could do. Now it seems power trumps that skill. I think eventually starting pitching and contact skills for hitters will be re-emphasized creating a better balance in baseball.
  9. Jim Hahn
    One of the assertions made in this thread implies that the Astros are way ahead of other teams when it comes to assembling and preparing a bullpen. Certainly, that aspect of their team has gone well for them this year. It is easy to forget that their bullpen very nearly derailed their winning in the postseason last year. When it comes to bullpens, things can blow up in a hurry or go incredibly well. Personally I think they have done well assembling a well rounded team . I would be careful thinking that they have some magic formula or that other ways of doing things can't work as well. There isn't all that much difference between the top half dozen teams in baseball ans they all pursue different formulas. Both San Francisco and Kansas City have had much recent success while neither being all that analytically inclined. They had very different paths to success as well. If the Twins are going to jump up to being one of the best teams in baseball within the next 2 years, it will be largely because of core assembled by the previous management team. If this core doesn't come together, it is going to take longer. I hope this management team is both patient enough if that is what is necessary and/or aggressive enough to supplement that group or blow up if that looks to be the better route. B
  10. Jim Hahn
    So according to this article the Astros made Pressly a better pitcher by teaching him to use one pitch to set up another. Perhaps sequence his pitches better. Is there really anything new here? Isn't this what all organisations do? In fact pitchers have been doing this since breaking balls were invented. In fact it is probably the one thing that made Gibson a better pitcher and perhaps one of the things that can make Berrios an ace. Can analytics help this process ? Maybe. Do pitchers and catchers kind of have to figure this out on the go based on what's working, who the batter is, what the umpire is calling, and the game situation? The other things being discussed here,I really am less concerned with this front office copying what works for the Astros (or the Brewers) than I am with them figuring out what will work for them. I hope they they have their own vision, understand their organization's strengths and weaknesses and are smart enough to learn from their mistakes.
  11. Jim Hahn
    Bringing up young guys who are overmatched is a bad idea on several levels. Making changes to your swing, approach,and other aspects of your game can be difficult enough in the minors against lesser competition in a less stressful situation. Trying to do that in the could be impossible for some players. Another problem is starting the arbitration clock on players a year or two early when they won't contribute to winning and may more easily learn most of those lessons in the minors. Players often have to learn certain things when they get to the majors and often pretty important changes have to be made. But forcing them to the majors before they have earned it is likely to do more harm than good. Maybe it wouldn't of took 1982 twins 5 years to learn how to win if some of them had spent more time in the minors.
  12. Jim Hahn
    My opinion is that the only good reason for not bringing Buxton up is if he is hurt. Since his recent performance and apparent lack of evidence of a doctor's confirmation of any lingering medical issues tend to confirm this discision is largely based on service time considerations,I am not impressed. It is clearly in the best interest of Buxton AND the Twins organization for him to be in the majors and playing baseball, if he is healthy. Anything that brings him closer to realizing his vast potential should be done. I don't see how sending him home helps that. Suggesting that the Twins need to play other guys this fall to find out what they have is rather silly. None of these guys have anything like the upside of Buxton, getting him as close to that upside as soon as possible should be the goal. While service time considerations are a real thing for mid market teams, there are ways to work around them. Potentially delaying Buxton' s emergence as a true impact player seems a bit shortsighted to me.
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