Crackedfungo

Hard to watch Hill walking three batters to load the bases in the 4th, while only maxing at 89 MPH. With Bailey lacking too, we need Duran up to assess what he can do. NOW would be nice....

It is curious. My eyes see a great deal of meat balls allowed to pierce the strike zone without a serious swing. They aren't swinging at more crap low and away. They are NOT SWINGING at pitches that are grooved (nor with any authority when they do). Seems like they are 'taking' too many pitches. The question is whether someone is telling them to do so......

Show me how many twins players hit 30 hrs, 100 RBI, batted .270+ in the last 20 years? Only two? How many times did 'hometown boy' Mauer? NEVER. In most twins years since Puckett, this would be THE cornerstone player. His fielding has been great, mediocre, and poor at times. Injuries and some decision making have made substantial contributions to these results - it isn't skill or tools. All for only $7.75MM per year (which is a bargain by any measure). Anyone that says that he is NOT one of the leaders of the team doesn't watch the games, and anyone that argues that he can CARRY the team for long stretches hasn't tuned in. Prospects are suspects until they prove otherwise. They must adjust, and many take years to do so (Buxton and Hicks, anyone?). Rosario is much better than average, and this is a team built to win in the next 2-3 years. Carry on.....

Was hoping for some pitching that might have slipped. Great power, but where will he play? Reminds me of a less field capable Matt Wallner. Would have rather had Wilcox, Miller, Beeter (or lob a call to the agent of Jared Kelley to see what he would cost).

Graterol is going to have the last laugh (likely this year). The twins get an aged 32 year old #3-#4 whose contract won’t look so good in 2021. The Yankees added Cole, and a full year of their version of Berrios. Twins add Maeda, Bailey (yuck), a broken down 40 YO, in Hill that we hope has a few bullets left. Even if JD hits an HR in every game, Twins likely get swept in 4 with this SP staff. Chacín is also not worth mentioning. If you are going to trade our #1 ranked SP from only 6 months ago, at least add Larnach and go for a real difference maker.

They DONT have a ton of information. He was was out for a full year (like many SPs with TJ) and out for a couple of months for his first year above low A. He was dominant. He has 3 pitches. FB is plus plus, SL plus plus, and CH average. He is also going into his year 21 season. By comparison, Balazovic has a FB plus, SL plus and Xh average to plus. He may have a bit more command. He is about the same age, and also had TJ. He finished last year unhurt for most part. They know nothing more about Balazovic than Grays. I stand by this. We will regret it.

ABSOLUTELY my view, as well. You DONT make this trade yet with Graterol. You already fu$&ed up a similar prospect in Romero with this assumption that he wouldn’t be a viable starter. That was wrong. He looked damn good in first few games. Now, they will have to resurrect him. He isn’t a reliever either. Graterol needed a chance with big club over a few years. Now, the Dodgers will use him like Urias and work his innings up. We WILL regret this in less than 2 years. He will probably stick it up our a$$ if we face the dodgers in the playoffs too....,only one year ago he was our top SP at age 20. So, 6 months later and at 21 we are SURE he will be a RP only and ship him off for a 32 year old #5 or #6 SP for Dodgers in 2020? LA must be laughing at us and were only too happy to step in for Boston.

They have NO idea yet. The TJ was several year ago. The impingement last year was Not that unusual. They are guessing and desperate for SP because they (and former mgmt) mismanaged pitching assets in years past. This looks desperate, as the Bailey and Chacin signings were weak (and Baileys was premature if you were going to make this move with Maeda) Should have been Hill, Walker and Maeda (trading assets like excess OF aside from high end SP, or an as yet unknown like graterol). It was stupid, and we have cluttered our staff with more re-treads so we will further push back Thorpe, Dobnak, and Smeltzer evals into Balazovic, Duran and Colima the following year. It just continues this CYCLE of stupidity for more years.

Still sucks. Maybe 1-2 decent years of Maeda for a 21 year old that will either be a Top starter or Top reliever we could use for 6+ years. All because we are desperate for SPs and have no inside options (and we are doing the same damn thing again this year by loading up on vets with no developed internal options. Hate this cycle we keep repeating.

Exactly. When taken in context with all the other signings (Chacín too?), this looks like a hodgepodge of four moves hoping two work out, and giving up our best young SP (currently) - I just don’t see the long-term payoff of most of these moves (3 only assist this year - hill, bailey, Chacín if they make it), and the Maeda move depletes our best young pitching prospect for an old weaker league junkballer that will only be serviceable,not potentially exceptional

See cardsfans post above. Maeda is going to struggle AWAY (bandboxes like NY, Boston, etc come to mind and in the playoffs) and at HOME in MN (versus pitching half the season in LA - one of the best pitchers parks). As indicated above, LA did not start him in playoffs (indicating he was NOT a top 1-4 SP in the weaker hitting league). For the Twins, he will be expected to start in Yankee stadium at some point - no thanks - I would rather have Graterol, or have included more prospects for a better pitcher. We don’t need all these 30 somethings that have surpassed their best years and are now merely adequate placeholders.

Check back at the end of the year. The move from the NL to AL will not work well for Maeda with full-time DHs, and he will be pitching in more hittters parks regularly than LA. I expect you to be here for some humble pie at years-end, as I will be ready to serve it.

This trade is going to bite us in 2 years, and Maeda will produce 4.25-4.50 in ERA in AL at best. Graterol will hold his own in year 1 and have a more productive year 2-4 than Maeda. This seems a desperate move, and is largely due to the other 3 meh/putrid signings of bailey, hill, and Chacín. I hate these moves, and we are kicking the can down the road in blocking our other young starters with all these #4 and #5s. Maeda will be a low 3 to high 4 only during year 1 and part of year 2, while Bailey won’t make it through this year and will perform like a 5, and I think hill will be with us for 1-2 weeks max (Chacín will never make mlb roster this year)

This is a very interesting article with some very salient points. Great job. My guess is that Dobnak will pitch regularly and end up with about 8-10 wins and an ERA around 4.00-4.25 I am also going to predict he pitches about 135 innings with over 100Ks and will have a WHIP about 1.25. It will be a very solid and unexpected contribution for the year, which I predict will exceed Homer Baileys production. I also predict that Graterol will be in as SP after August and that both Colina and Balazovic will be up in September (and that The earliest Hill has a regular turn will be September - I think he will have some recovery issues

I wanted Walker instead of Bailey for a Pineda like original deal. This is a nice bridge to kids. Not sure why Falvine didn’t prioritize him

Ding, ding, ding - we have a winner. They have a great deal of really solid arms right on the doorstep. They are in 2-3 waves. They simply must make a decision upon the first, and perhaps the second wave soon. There are too many to protect in the future. Thus, Thorpe, Dobnak, Smeltzer, maybe Romero, and Graterol need to be tested this next 1-2 years. Thereafter, Colina, Balazovic, Duran will need to be looked at. Finally, Sands, Enlow, and Canterino will follow. We could have a GREAT young staff if one pitcher from each wave becomes a part of the MLB core (while Berrios continues to become a 1 or 2).. This is what they are likely up to early this year. They will get help (if necessary) at trade deadline - which may include someone from Wave 2 if they are forcing their way up for a look (and I think one might). Its all about managing assets....

RBs #5 is an ABSOLUTE that every Twins fan (near and long term) must learn to embrace. You simply cannot keep looking at adding pitchers that other teams choose not to pay. They are paying their best. They are letting their other SPs walk (either due to $, injury, regression, overvaluation, or a conflict of assets to retain due to lux tax). Thus, we need to develop our own. It is THAT simple. You really want 4/5 of your SP staff to be developed internally (and in an ongoing way, as you will lose some to FA) if you want to be able to pay your CORE position players, be competitive annually, with a shot at WS when you have convergence of development of position players and SPs. FA and trades should only be necessary annually to add 1 SP (Verlander would be a good example). Our Top 9 SP prospects are absolutely critical to our ability to have future sustained success with some championships. 1-2 per year must join the SP rotation as core contributors, so their respective development and retention (of the most important) should be key. There is also a need to re-load the pipeline every year. We should be done with the scrap heap or FA chase (but open to a Trade if it does NOT alter other core pieces that we have PLANNED AROUND - which decreases the odds of the 'right' trade working out). With the escalating costs of SP, I believe all teams will start to shift towards building as much of their SP as possible 'in-house,' as contract costs and risks of SPs are just too high. Also, how many 'aces' got rocked two years ago in the playoffs? SP is critical, but maybe it is no longer financially viable to build or do more than supplement with players making an exodus from other teams for whatever reason (except in rare cases). Look at teams like Cleveland - 3 solid core SPs from in-house. They are cheap, controlled, really good, and pitchers that most teams would probably throw $20+MM if/when FAs, but what a luxury to have them now when you are Cleveland and focus upon using money for position players and only needing to add 1-2 SPs per year. When is the last time the Twins had 3-4 internally developed SPs in the rotation that WERE GOOD to GREAT!?!? Almost never....This needs to change

Except 2 of the 3 (Stewart and Gonsalves) lacked plus stuff once in high minors and majors. Romero lacked a 2nd or 3rd pitch, and they really f’ed him up with the musical chairs to AAA, then Relief pitching. He was mishandled, and they now have to decide what to do with him while Stewart, Jay, Gonsalves and their mediocre stuff and lack of control are gone. Not the same scenario. There were always questions about their stuff (2 of them) or their ability to start. Also, if you ignore how the Dodgers, Indians, Cardinals Atlanta, and other teams build SP ‘in house’ and keep searching for FAs in an overpay and others rejects, you never find your Bieber’s and keep eating bad contracts and seeking SP. That is not a sound approach. Prove me wrong with similar examples of a team like Twins that did this successfully. Why was Falvey hired? It is time to trust his accumen and process, as we are never going to steal amyones #1, and rarely a #2. We need to find our own.

As of right now, I would trade ANY Twins SP for Bieber or Clevinger EXCEPT Berrios. Not sure about Civale yet, but he looks good. I would love to have Graterol/early and Balazovic/later move up this year permanently and push for a SP spot, any of Duran/Colina/Ober move up next year semi or permanently for SP spots. This would change the whole composition of our SP needs in 2021 and 2022. You simply have to force them to compete for a spot, and some will break through and perform, or you move on to the next wave. Then, you fill in some gaps with FA or Trade, Re-sign Berrios and Odo, and you have spots 3-5 covered with young controlled talent (Cleveland did this while paying Kluber, then moved on from him and form Bauer). It CAN BE DONE, and it is the BEST WAY to develop SP in ANY market. Our dicking around with Stewart, Gonsalves, and Romero while signing dumpster trash (and pitching Slegers, Milone, Albers, and other AAAA trash in MLB), was not the right approach - and it is costing us now. Filling out 1-5 with vets is simply not a way to evolve to a young and long-term affordable staff with some surprise #1s and high performers. We are never going to attract or buy someone else's #1 - just not going to happen - we are NOT a destination in 'fly over' country. Expecting otherwise is obtuse. We need to develop our own #1's and likely #2's - I think Falvey understands this better than anybody we could have hired.

As I said in a past post, take a look at Cleveland from 2016 forward. Bieber, Civale, (both 24 years old and up for last few years), and Clevinger (29 years old, and brought up in 2016 permanently) all had less or equal 'stuff' than 6 of our 9 and equal or less performance than the same in the minors, and are now the core of Cleveland's pitching staff. Cleveland mangement made the decision WHILE IN THEIR WINDOW to move these guys into the rotation in 2016, 2018, and 2019. Falvey was there at that time (or on the front of end of it). Perhaps he has the same plan here, and KNOWS that these Twins SP prospects are similar (or better?) and could complete the same transformation of the Twins SP Staff. We hired Falvey for a reason, and he has a track record with these types of developments in Cleveland. Like I said prior, if not NOW (bring 1-2 up each year), then WHEN?!? You cannot keep throwing dollars at depreciating SP assets while letting your languish in MiLB - it simply makes NO SENSE. Also, you can do it WHILE IN THEIR WINDOW, as Cleveland proved.

Don't sleep on Colina in 2020, either. He may be more of a RP, but he seems to deliver at each level as a SP as soon as he has been given some innings to acclimate. He could also add SP innings in late 2020, and be more of a contributor in 2021. These are all fresh young arms that have performed very well in the minors, but more importantly, they have the STUFF that pitchers like Gonsalves and Stewart were unable to exhibit in upper MILB and MLB

I believe Graterol will take one of the SP spots for a significant portion of 2020 by performance and future potential (they will manage his innings when Pineda and Hill return). The only question is whether they will let him do so from April 1, or by June 1. I believe Balazovic will be knocking on the door by July to August, and will make an impact by September that will be MUCH better than what we saw from Gibson and Perez last year at that time and may become a SP in meaningful games for stretch run (and will displace what we get from Bailey, Smeltzer, or Thorpe by that time - not sure about Dobnak). I don't think Duran will make an impact in 2020, but I am not ready to ignore Ober - something is up with a guy dominating like that through multiple levels in a year - it typically means that they have really found something that may carry them from an outlier prospect to one with real potential (I am not really sure how he gets his results - but something is certainly 'plus' about him with those results). He may arrive in September and force some consideration like Dobnak did last year - their rise was similar.

When in Twins history have they had this many plus pitchers (pitchers with 1 or more pitches at 60+ all at AA at the same time)? The answer is NEVER. We have been horrendous at assembling young pitchers with plus stuff in large groups. We have the 1 or 2 here or there, and when the one fails, we are screwed. All of Tier 1: Graterol, Balazovic, Duran, Tier 2: Colina, Ober, and Sands, and Tier 3: even Enlow, Chalmers and Canterino a bit later could be significant impact pitchers in 2-3 years or less. A few should be at least as good as a Gibson, one to three maybe at Berrios level, or perhaps even better. I don't think looking back into Twins history is a good barometer. We have had a horrible pitching philosophy ('pitch to contact' no 'missing bats' and no 'power pitching focus') through many regimes, with terrible scouting and drafting of pitchers (Adam Johnson, Kohl Stewart, Tyler Jay, Alex Wimmers, Kyle Waldrop, Carlos Guitierrez ring a bell?). Liriano and Johan were an EXCEPTION that we somewhat lucked into - they didn't really fit our philosophy, they just forced their way in due to performance. The philosophy has clearly changed with this regime, and many of these new SP prospects have more 'stuff,' and didn't cost us First Round picks. Thus, this is a different group of coaches and FO personnel with a different perception upon what constitutes effective pitching. I believe it will prove to be more effective. I have never been a fan of throwing BIG $ for past performance EXCEPT FOR a few that are closest to a sure thing for half their respective contract (Cole and Straus would fall into that camp, while I don't think Wheeler, Ryu or MadBum will).

That is EXACTLY what they are thinking. With as many upcoming SPs they have (6) at AA that have REAL plus potential with at least one to two pitches, I think they are following a path that will enable this to happen. They realize that they must build their own SP staff, as opposed to over-paying for past performance. I am all for it. I don't think their window closes before at least 2-3 of these young SPs are ready to make a real impact. We are looking at 6-12 months after the season starts for at least 1-3 of them. I like this approach, in spite of all the complaining on this site. I don't want a Ryu or MadBum underperforming for 3 more years (after 1-2 ok ones), or to be hamstrung for 4-6 years with a Straus or Cole contract, if it comes at the expense of getting 2-3 of our own the experience they need to be Berrios type contributors in 2-3 years..