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whatyouknowtwinsfan

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Everything posted by whatyouknowtwinsfan

  1. My wording probably wasn't the best. In the Royals case, they took a bad farm system and made it worse. With our farm system, I'm absolutely willing to trade some of our guys, but I don't want it to be repetitive in trying to find "the guy." I'd rather trade for a "stud" and give up a few more prospects then repeatedly trade the farm for a stopgap. That's what got the Wild in trouble to the point where they had no draft picks and the ones they had have come up short on expectations. Let's avoid that when making trades, otherwise I'm all for it if it moves the needle significantly.
  2. Doesn't matter, they traded the good value they had and are consistently losing 90 games for the next few years. They had a barren farm system and depleted it more. I'm sorry, but I'm getting tired of watching 90 loss teams. The Cardinals are an organization that has proved time and time again that you can spend, you can trade, and you can develop new generations of talents without rebuilding. They've done it pretty successfully too. Give me that model.
  3. Again, it's not about closing the gap! I could care less about the gap. It's about making a move that levels the playing field. As much as you would like to think so, Wheeler, Mad Bum, or Ryu DON'T wouldn't have done that and I'm tired of people thinking that those guys would've done so. Would I like to have one of those 3? Absolutely! But I'm not overpaying for a "chance" to beat the Yankees, I'll overpay if I get someone (DeGrom, Thor) who CAN FOR SURE beat the Yankees. If I were GM, I wouldn't be on the phone with the Mets right now because one of those two would already be in a Twins jersey. It's not that I don't want to see a World Series winner, it's more I question what value our options that are off the board would've have been. Don't give me a chance against the Yankees, give me a guarantee that you can beat the Yankees.
  4. What's a "measured risk" in your scenario? Is buying Cueto and Zobrist while selling the farm for the Royals in 2015 measured? Is the Cubs trade for Chapman in 2016 measured? Is Andrew Miller going to Cleveland in 2016 measured? I think we need to come together to figure out how risk averse we are. I'd say those last two could easily be done by this team. They have enough prospects to make those deals happen easily while also be able to field a team four years down the line.
  5. They're always going to be the underdog in this scenario then. You can't beat the Yankees at spending and you won't ever be able to. It doesn't matter whether the Twins spend $200 million or $100 million. The way you're going to beat the Yankees is by making smart, calculated moves that level the playing field. Every move this offseason would've simply closed the gap. Cole and Verlander would've more than likely beat Mad Bum or Ryu in game 1. Go find me the next Verlander, Greinke, or Cole on the trade market and I'll buy in to acquiring them. That's how you beat the Yankees, you find someone with talent and stuff, and use Wes Johnson's magic to turn the table. How do I know this? It has happened before. Someone by the name of Johan Santana. How'd the Twins fare in his game one starts against the Yankees? They won both of them. Get me stuff, get me potential, get me a pitching coach's magic, and I'll be inclined to make a move.
  6. The numbers don't matter here. It's not about tomorrow in the argument, it's about the playoffs. If you play the Yankees or Astros in game 1 of the ALDS and have Ryu or Mad Bum in game 1 vs. Cole or Verlander, who's going to win. Chances are if we play this scenario out 100 times, the Yankees and Astros will win more than 50% of the time. They have the better pitcher. This offseason for some seems to be about closing the gap. I don't care about closing the gap, I want to level the playing field, and in this case, I think the Twins chose waiting for the latter rather than having the former result in another quick playoff exit. Why pay $140 million to lose in the 1st round when you can do it for $110 million. Give me a realistic chance to level the playing field that the Twins pass up on trading for, drafting, or signing, then I will agree with this
  7. Agreed. I think the reason the Twins have not made that move is that it isn't there. Greinke had a no trade this past season that prevented him from coming here. Mad Bum, Wheeler, Cole, and Strasburg all chose comfort in their deals and it would've taken millions above their worth to get them. Ryu would've been good, but he still doesn't move the needle for me. Additionally, trading for David Price (or someone similar) puts you in a financial quandary that prevents you from making a move down the line. At best, those options give you a "chance" against Cole or Verlander, which doesn't guarantee you anything. If you're going to make the move, it has to be either: 1) Someone who guaranteed moves the needle upon acquiring them (Thor, DeGrom) 2) Someone who can be developed to move the needle (Robbie Ray, Chris Archer, Alacantara from Miami) If you're telling me #1 is a pipe dream, I agree. The Mets are going to try to contend and have the only "guarantees" who could be traded. #2 is possible, but the problem is that fewer of these arms are available. The Diamondbacks will contend, the Pirates will "try" to contend, even the Marlins appear like they don't want to lose 100 games. The costs for these players will go up. I'm not saying don't pay, but we need to be cautious. I'm not against making the move, but it needs to level the playing field, not merely close the gap.
  8. If we consider the 2001-2010 Twins as one window, it goes against that 5-year myth. Additionally, they successfully did that by making trades and shuffling the cards, so in this market, a long-term window (of contention at least) is more than possible. If that's a playoff window, what is a world series window? The Indians have been in a world series window with that great bullpen and rotation, and even though they've lost key pieces from those teams, their playoff contention window is still very open and likely is until they trade Lindor, plus they have the rotation to win in the playoffs, so I'd say even though they very well might be the 3rd best team in the division, they could still win a world series with their roster. Windows are subjective, require talent, involve risk, and require smart front office operations that are willing to spend, but be flexible. Give yourself the best chance to win now and give yourself enough of a future imo is the key to a good window. It's why I like where the Twins are now, but it is almost to the point of too comfortable
  9. I think Diaz is vital to this team. I like his relationship with the Latin players. Instead of threatening to fire the guy, maybe we could propose him moving over to 1st base or into the dugout......... Just a thought. Just because he hasn't been a great 3B coach doesn't mean he's not an asset. The guy is a human being people.
  10. It's just frustrating. Today was just a reminder that improvement isn't linear. They're still a playoff team and at worst right now would host a home wild card game. I'm frustrated, but I'll let everyone else be (rightfully) angry. I'm going to think positive because there were some positives. They played good defensive baseball today and outside of Rogers got some good bullpen performances. I'm not discounting the problems they had today, but there were some positives. Take the day off tomorrow, refresh, and beat up the Brewers and Rangers this week.
  11. Like Damn Yankees except the other way around. I love it!
  12. Thanks for the report. I'm getting concerned about the veterans in the pen. We know how May, Rogers, and Hildenberger can perform. I'm hoping Parker's outing was just a hiccup since he had looked good before that. I'd like to see guys like Jake Reed, Eades, and Ryne Harper get a chance. They've all looked good so far and I'm glad the Twins are giving them extended looks. Addison Reed just continues to baffle and annoy me all at the same time. What did his injury last season do to make him so ineffective?
  13. I hope so! I think the thing that gives me hope is that this signing was made with a plan in mind. It seems like in the past, these moves have been made to add an arm with no strategy whatsoever. The Twins now seem to at least have a plan with every player they have, and even if it's not enough to put them in the playoffs, it gives me hope in this team long term.
  14. LOL, glad I'm not the only one who thinks Camptown races when Duda comes to the plate
  15. Thanks for sharing. I find the 2007/2008/2009 Twins to be interesting. One of my favorites on those teams was Brian Buscher....... Never really was given a chance but was a decent player. He was a career .266/.343/.356 (.699 ops 8 HR/69 RBI/89 ops+) He was the definition of league average/replacement level, but put up a 0.5 WAR across 164 games. I find it odd given his average performance he was one of my favorites, yet I enjoyed watching him play. Probably would have been a better 1st baseman, but we had a good one at that time.....
  16. I'm right there with you! I think this would be a great move and doing it now forces Chicago and Cleveland to respond. It also forces Philly to play their hand for Harper (which means no Harper in Chicago) because their back ups are very clearly Keuchel and Kimbrel now. If someone swipes Harper, it all but guarantees at least Keuchel or Kimbrel goes to Philly with the other going to Atlanta in response OR both of them ending up in Philly. In addition to being good strategically, it's just a smart baseball move. Think of this bullpen: Kimbrel Trevor May Taylor Rogers Fernando Romero Trevor Hildenberger Addison Reed Adalberto Mejia I think that bullpen isn't only good, I think it's top 5 in the AL and I argue it's 100% better than Cleveland's. I would argue it's better than Boston's, and right up there with Houston's. Think of Kimbrel, Romero, May, and Rogers at the end of a game. GOOD LUCK! It'd be a death wish if you got 6 good innings out of our starters which I think is more than possible. Kimbrel makes the bullpen better and deeper, shortens games, and makes you instantly competitive with the big boys in the AL in terms of bullpen.
  17. My hot take: Twins acquire Madison Bumgarner at the trade deadline to help the rotation......
  18. The Minnesota Twins announced the TV broadcast team for 2019. Overall, there weren't too many surprises. Bremer, Bert Blyleven, Jack Morris (who will split time between Detroit and Minnesota's broadcasts in 2019), Justin Morneau, Latroy Hawkins, and Roy Smalley are all returning in 2019. However, there is one change. Torii Hunter will not return in 2019. Replacing him will be former Twins and Yankees broadcaster and former Twin Jim Kaat. Kaat has recently called Thursday night baseball on MLB Network alongside Bob Costas or Matt Vasgersian. This has the makings of an interesting group. What do you think of the addition of Kaat?
  19. Thanks to brooksbaseball.net (Gibson, Morton, and Perez) and Fangraphs for the data. You know the profile of a sinkerballer, the low-90s fastball, no strike out pitch, and wildly inconsistent. It fits the mold of the newest Twin, Martin Perez, whose career struggles have led many to question the move. Here, I offer a rationale for the move using two previous sinkerballers who changed their repertoire and transformed their careers through increased velocity and relying on a breaking pitch to strike hitters out. It's important first to distinguish Perez's career pitch percentages in comparison to Morton's and Gibson's at the points of their transitions in repertoire. Kyle Gibson (career through 2017): Sinker-41.4% 4-Seam-17.82% Changeup-16.04% Slider-20.06% Curve-4.68% Avg. Sinker Velocity: 92.2 MPH ERA: 4.70 K%: 16.0% K/9: 6.2 FIP: 4.35 Charlie Morton (career through 2016): Sinker: 48.6% 4-Seam: 17.26% Changeup: 4.03% Slider: 1.35% Curve: 20.07% Cutter: 3.29% Split: 5.31% Avg. Sinker Velocity: 92.14 MPH ERA: 4.54 K%: 16.0% K/9: 6.3 FIP: 4.10 Martin Perez (career): Sinker: 37.52% 4-Seam: 23.33% Changeup: 19.37% Slider: 10.89% Curve: 8.89% Avg. Sinker Velocity: 93.16 MPH ERA: 4.63 K%: 13.9% K/9: 5.46 FIP: 4.44 My jaw just about dropped when looking at the numbers. All three used the sinker around 40% of the time. Perez used his 4-seam a little bit more and had a bit more velocity. Outside of velocity, Perez's percentages are much worse. His K% and k/9 are below both Morton and Gibson. His ERA is directly in between the two and his FIP is the worst amongst the three, chalk it up to relying on weak contact being made and defense being on his side. Also interesting to me was that Gibson's slider and Morton's curve, effectively their swing and miss pitches, were used at basically the same percentage! Morton and Gibson also had almost the exact same k/9 and sinker velocity and their K% WAS THE EXACT SAME at 16%! As you can see from the ERA and FIP, their repertoire made them average at best and more commonly mediocre because they relied on defense to bail them out. For both of them, change was needed and as results have shown, were effective. Charlie Morton signed with the Houston Astros in 2017. The changes Houston made were immediate and effective. Over the 2017 and 2018 seasons, here were the results. Sinker: 35.15% 4-Seam: 21.04% Changeup: 0.19% Slider: 0.52% Curve: 29.15% Cutter: 8.07% Split: 5.85% Avg. Sinker Velocity: 95.42 MPH ERA: 3.36 K%: 27.7% K/9: 10.4 FIP: 3.53 Houston helped Morton design a delivery that increased velocity, while decreased sinker usage and increased 4-seam usage helped increase velocity as well. Notice that Morton did not sacrifice the sinker, it's still his most used pitch. However, it's been made more effective by increasing the usage of his curve. Morton's curve in 2017 and 2018 had a whiff percentage of 18.67%. Houston realized that increased curve usage would help Morton get more swings and misses. It has led to Morton striking out an additional 10% of the batters he faces and also 4 more strikeouts per 9 innings while increased usage of the cutter and split have resulted because those two pitches generate whiffs as well. Morton went from a mediocre major leaguer to a rotation regular and potential all star by changing his repertoire and increasing the use of pitches that generate swings and misses. While Kyle Gibson didn't see the large velocity increase that Houston's program did in helping transform Morton, a noticeable uptick in velocity as well as better slider usage led to a career year. Here's Kyle Gibson's 2018 numbers in the following categories: Sinker-33.93% 4-Seam-23.84% Changeup-11.01% Slider-21.01% Curve-10.21% Avg. Sinker Velocity: 93.42 MPH ERA: 3.62 K%: 21.7% K/9: 8.19 FIP: 4.13 Gibson's numbers didn't jump to the extent of Morton, but they're nothing to slouch at either. Like Morton, Gibson reduced usage of his sinker and a mechanical change led to a slight uptick in velocity. Where Gibson reduced fastball usage, he utilized his breaking ball. The Twins noticed something in Gibson's slider and for good reason. His slider generated whiffs an INSANE 27.17% of the time in 2018, no doubt one of the best sliders in MLB. However, Gibson didn't use it that much more in 2018 than his career before 2018. I think the Twins have changed how it gets used. It no longer is used as a get me over pitch, it is used to put hitters away and has become extremely effective as a result. Gibson also had a whiff rate of 18.11% with the 4-seamer and a whiff rate of 18.21% with the changeup, establishing two more pitches that can generate swings and misses. One of the things I noticed also was an increased use of the curve in 2018. While it's not as effective at generating swings and misses, it provides another pitch in the repertoire to deceive hitters. My hope in 2019 is that Wes Johnson can work some magic and increase Gibson's velocity in 2019.. What should the Twins do in 2019 to Martin Perez to see results similar to Gibson and Morton? I propose a few things. Change his mechanics to increase velocity. Decrease use of the sinker while increasing 4-seam use. Determine a swing and miss pitch for Perez that either gets increased use (like Morton) or is designed specifically to put hitters away (like Gibson). His changeup looks to be the most promising, generating a whiff rate of 17.12% in his career. Obviously, his performance is yet to be seen, but I think this is along the lines of the rationale the Twins signing Perez. If he's going to find success, I think this is the way.
  20. Excited about Joe Nathan! Well deserved! Congrats to Jerry Bell as well! He was in a large way responsible for Target Field and I'm forever grateful about that.
  21. Exciting! It seems to me like this front office is willing to move faster with players when their performance warrants it. For me, I'm hoping to see them play a little this spring. Hoping Alex K. starts off at AA this year and Lewis I think starts at High-A and with a good performance could see AA at some point this year. Why not challenge these kids?
  22. I think this is my take as well. While I'm disappointed in their payroll being around only $100 million, I look at where money has been allocated. Their front office and coaching staff has been carefully put together in a way to maximize production out of players. Their offense 1-9 is a threat, their rotation (outside of Perez) is no worse than league average. If there was 1 place where I'd like to see improvement, it's the bullpen. I like the names and options, but I want ONE guaranteed all star out there. My philosophy is, go in to spring training with this group and if a guy like Kimbrel hasn't been taken yet, offer him fewer years at a high AAV (2yrs/50 million or 3 years/70 million). It's affordable for the team and it doesn't hamstring the them long-term.
  23. Thanks for the quick summary. I wanted to go for the first time this year, but between forgetting about the event and being sick, I wasn't able to. Let's hope Max Kepler's prediction in German works out in the same way Bert Blyleven's did Fan Appreciation Weekend 1986 about 1987
  24. I'd love for them to spend big, but I think Kimbrel would be best move. Here's why. Let's compare Twins vs. Indians: Starting Rotation: Indians (You can't beat their rotation, but you can have a competitive rotation. The Twins have that in Berrios, Gibson, Odorizzi, Pineda-tell me the last time the Twins rotation had this many trustworthy veteran names)Bullpen: Twins (Indians have Hand and that's it. The Twins might have a Brad Hand in Taylor Rogers. Statistically, he was one of the best relievers in the game last year. They also have Trevor May, who has been REALLY GOOD as a reliever. Reed, Hildenberger, Moya, and Parker serve as middle relievers who might face high leverage situations, but you move them up by acquiring Kimbrel. 6th-Parker/Hildenberger/Reed/Moya, 7th-May, 8th-Rogers, 9th-Kimbrel. By signing Kimbrel, you turn a Twins positional advantage into a dominant advantage in a similar way that the Indians rotation is a dominant advantage. Additionally, by acquiring Kimbrel, your bullpen is more competitive with the Yankees, Red Sox, Astros, A's, Rays, and Indians. It would be better than Cleveland's, better than Boston's, better than Tampa's and better than Houston's. Yeah, the Yankees and A's have better pens, but you can be more competitive bullpen wise by signing Kimbrel)Lineup: Tie (Indians have Lindor and Ramirez, but Twins have better 1-9)It would take tremendous improvement to approach Cleveland's rotation and positionally, you're full offensively. However, the bullpen isn't full, you have money, and you can turn an advantage into a dominant advantage by signing Kimbrel for your pen.
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