bunsen82

Twins wouldn't have picked him had they not agreed. They have a contract in principle already agreed to. As much as the Twins liked Prielipp I think players are also really starting to like the Twins as a potential destination - especially if the money is good. The Twins can show players what they will do by showing Festa, Winder, Varland, Headrick, Raya, Mooney, Hajjar and Povich. Its not like they are developing just one player. They have shown a program that is developing a lot of players showing they have an excellent program in place. Prielipp could go back with nothing guaranteed, could get drafted lower, or he can go to the Twins, and put his best effort in and possibly become an Ace. He would also be a year closer to the big lifechanging contract assuming he pans out. He could flame out, but the talent is there to do well.

Your last sentence pretty much sums it up, the Twins likely had a late 1st to early second round grade on Schobel and think he likely had a higher floor and higher ceiling than any other player available - especially with a possible discount. The Twins will win, by hitting on as many prospects as possible and then to begin flipping them for assets. I think starting here in the next couple weeks we are going to start seeing this part of our strategy come into play. I am expecting 1-2 of the following players to likely be traded Palacios, Steer, Julien, Encarnacion Strand, Cavaco or Severino. Palacios and Julien have high possibilities, Palacios can likely play in the big leagues immediately for a developing team and Julien has a high OBP that teams are willing to give a chance on.

Its not often when the head of the draft for your team says literally everything fell their way :). You will get yeah we really liked his potential and thought he was the best available at their spot. I honestly think in the Twins perspective we got the players they would have picked had we been in the 3-5 slot most years. Johnson may have been the only other player the Twins would have picked over Lee in this draft from what I can gather.

So what exactly would you have done? Who would have been available at 8 that you think was demonstrably better than Lee?

I honestly think the Twins may have had an agreement in place before the draft. I think he is going to come in overslot, maybe by as much as 5-600,000. This was a player they clearly targeted. I think the Twins do really well, in the mid to late rounds, I think they have struggled from time to time with their early picks. The last 2 years feels like things have partially been falling their way better, especially early on. The comment by Johnson, that essentially these were the best players they could have expected to come out of the day with tells you they are very happy with how things went. Lets see how day 2 goes.

I believe he was a possible option to be picked at 8 possibly underslot money, but we were able to get him at 48. He has the talent to be a #1 or #2 starter. The questions arise due to the lack of innings pitched, not the stuff. However there is also an advantage there as he didn’t have a ton of mileage put on him during college. I wonder if due to the twins interest at 8 they were able to work out a deal to overpay at 48 which then it does become a steal situation. It just slightly hampers our next few picks.

Would the twins consider Ben Joyce with one of their two picks in the second round?

I was all for Parada and stated as much several times but I never saw Lee falling. Between the two you take Lee every day of the week. I am sure a catcher will be picked in the early rounds.

The twins MO has been to go for bats that have a high probability of playing in the big leagues. Essentially a high floor. Of the bats in here at usually a high drafted position that would be Parada. Neto is a possibility at a high discount. Otherwise it seems like if they want any of the pitchers they can also get a good discount. They also seem to be high on Johnson but I assume he will already be picked. We should know here quickly.

I think Parada is the one that falls, someone is going to draft a lower level prospect to save major money to use later in the the draft. Now the thing is will the Twins take him and I think they should. We have some catchers in the minor leagues, but no one of Parada's pedigree.

If a core is to exist - For the next 4 years here is my guess and I am going to have 5 players 1 of Correa/Lewis Arreaz Buxton Duran (as SP) - I think they stretch him out Canterino (RP) 1. I am definitely doing some projection here. However here is my rational. I think the Twins will try to resign Correa, if they don't Lewis is the clear heir for the position. That position will be a key cog in our future success. 2. Arreaz has a bat that can play with any type of ball. I think his skills will continue to improve for the next year or two and will be this generations Tony Gwynn. 3. Buxton - He needs to remain healthy but he is a game changer when he is healthy, He is still too much boom and bust with the bat, but his defense is a major game changer for the team. 4. Duran - as good as he has been as a reliever, if the org thinks he can be stretched out and be an elite SP I think they will. He has the stuff to be the #1 pitcher we don't have. 5. Canterino - This is the biggest projection here. He has the best stuff of any pitcher in the minors, but he continues to be one that struggles with health and any extended innings. I think he will settle into a relief role and be a key COG down the future as primary fireman/closer.

We may win the trade merely by not giving Berrios the extension. We could ultimately get no production out of Martin or SWR and still win. Ultimately that is what it is potentially looking like right now before we even get to how the prospects perform. I think Martin is just going through a rough patch/injury and fully expect the bat to start producing. Even with that the OBP is still holding up well. SWR has had a few clunkers but overall his stuff still plays and he has made very good progress this year. I think give him another year in the Twins Org and we will see a massive jump next year.

Look, I really like what Wes did for this organization, but this has been a philosophy that was instilled from the top. Wes communicated it well, but at this point the game plan on what works well is ingrained in this organization. Look no further than what is occurring at A ball or AA ball. The growth and teaching of the pitchers at all levels is going really well. I actually expect maybe just a little bit of a fall off. The biggest thing may be the talks on the mound to calm a pitcher. Right now you have a lot of pitchers that have bought into the system, that will not just fall off a cliff. I am curious whether they fill the position internally, fill temporarily for the rest of the season, and or whether they hire someone from outside the organization. I think we have enough internal candidates that understand the direction the Twins need to go - which will likely be the direction and they hire from within. If the bullpen coach does well for the rest of the year he may get it by default.

The other thing is I believe he was on the last year of his contract. The Twins may have made him nervous by not previously extending him. We can't kid ourselves, if the Twins felt he was underperforming they would have cut him like many other coaches in the MLB. Coaches have to do what is in their best interest. However it doesn't appear he is getting a huge pay increase. He was making $350,000 and it is now going to $380,000. https://sports.yahoo.com/heres-lsu-baseball-paying-pitching-195556274.html?src=rss

LSU had an immediate opening that needed filled ASAP. What I am slightly curious about is who initiated the contact, Wes or his agent or LSU. It appears LSU targeted Wes. I don't think this was Wes's initial plan this year to look for a new job but the opportunity came open. I wish him well. He did well here and I think helped instill a strong program. Ultimately I think that is all we can ask of him. He did his job. Wish he would have stayed on for the rest of the year but fully acknowledge that wasn't a possibility in this circumstance. I do think he was one that has a short shelf on any team. He wants to see continued progress and improvement and is probably a perfectionist. He is a fixer. Granted we needed more fixing on our bullpen, but that wasn't really his issue (cough, cough). Thank you and good luck Wes.

Thats interesting, must have been wrong when he signed.

Also I think Isola, Helman Palacios, Hamilton Schulfer and Camargo would need to be protected as well. I don't think all those players will be picked in a rule V but 4 to 5 are definitely at risk. To me we need to trade 3-4 prospects from those eligible or already on the 40 man to open up spots.

Pretty sure SWR would have 5 years so is not rule V eligible until next year would have signed when 18. might be wrong on that.

Fair enough, but one can also say, he is taking full advantage of the opportunity currently in front of him, and someone must have a little faith in him to put him at the higher levels. he may do enough to force himself onto the 40 man, I believe he will need to be protected. A possible trade piece or another player that may be at risk for the rule V draft.

I would assume Correa is off the table unless someone decides to overpay. The Twins showed this past season they were willing to make multiple moves to improve the team. With Lewis getting hurt its much less likely, but not completely unfeasible or unthinkable. I think you are too focused on what teams are willing to give up in trades rather than what the Twins would be willing to accept. I think the Twins would prefer this trade deadline to be a wild wild west of trades. My expectations of this deadline are I really have no clue in what direction they want to go right now. This series against Cleveland will tell us better what type of team we have. I will be cheering them on Thursday with my family.

How you can ignore the rest of those drafts where they have found consistent talent some that is outperforming even our early round picks is ludicrous. The 2019 and 2021 drafts have essentially restocked the twins pipeline. I am mightily impressed with that. That is even with trading our #1 draft pick last year, for a very good starting pitcher for 2 year. I can't wait to see who they draft this year, especially with an early draft pick.

Does anyone seriously think the Twins will trade for Montas? There will likely be 4-5 teams wanting to acquire his services, do you think the twins will outpay to win and get that trade? No offense but I think its rather unlikely. It will be a pitcher the Twins think they can improve to be a #2 to #1 pitcher if they were to trade for a starting pitcher. Here are most likely trade targets for starting pitching. Wade Miley, Jose Quintana, Chad Kuhle, Tyler Mahle, and a darkhorse candidate is Yu Darvish who they tried to sign several years ago. They could trade either Steer or Miranda. I could see a Varland, Headricks, Or really any of the prospects beyond the top 4-5.

Correa is having a very good season, likely will end up with a 6 WAR season, but that is what $35 million should get you. He is not being overlooked. I will give you Jax and then I will give you 4 more overlooked players going into this season and that I think are being undervalued currently. 1. Gary Sanchez - average is putrid, slightly above the mendoza line, OBP is .275, however he has delivered in some critical spots. He is sitting at 28 RBI's on the year, on track for close to 90 and has played decent defense (something that his been ridiculed). He has brought some stability to the C position. I would still like the batting average around .240 and OBP in the .320 to .340 range, but for a player most were willing to write off at the beginning of the season, a .4 WAR has been a very welcomed surprise. 2. Urshela - someone who was merely holding the spot for Miranda to come take his place has done pretty well. Some defensive metrics don't like him, but from what I have seen he has brought a lot of stability to the team. A solid player that brings his lunch box to work. Nothing to flashy just does the little things that lead to a team winning. Another player with .5 WAR 3. Nick Gordon - The player many have wanted cut, just keeps producing, playing whatever position he has asked and being an above average defensive player. The bat has done enough for being a primarily defensive player. Showing up with a .4 WAR - that is all you can ask for from a bench player. 4. Celestino - A player that was called up to just be a short term filler, has continued to find playing time. The bat up to this point has been very effective, with an average above .300 an OBP at .400 and above average defense. He has put up a .4 WAR as well. 3 of the 4 players were either expected to be backups/platoons or not even on this team. They have combined for 1.7 WAR. For players that there has been minimal expectations, they have all outperformed those expectations from the beginning of the season and allowed the Twins to get through the myriad of injuries they faced while still getting some wins.

The pitching lineup for Friday looks really strong. Winder, Varland, Headrick, and Adams.

If you want to sell a prospect here the ones with highest values- Highest-Lewis Next level - Steer, Martin, Miranda, Woods Richardson. Maybe Rodriguez and Miller, Balazavic (maybe trending to lower level) Mid level - Varland, Wallner, Raya, Julien, Hajjar, Festa, Headrick, Soulerie, Povich, Isola, Palacios, Enlow, Strand (possibly moving up) , Cavaco (buy Low Candidate), Sabato and Rosario There are several more prospects that other organizations may like for depth or for projection on their ability especially A ball pitchers.