bunsen82

I think O Hearn settles for 2 for 22 million. I would sign him and Pete Fairbanks, trade Larnach and use the remaining 2.5 to 3 million for the best reliever you can get in that range. Utility is the only hole and likely need to trade to fill that spot.

I think O’Hearn is the best value, good defense, good contact bat that doesn’t cost a prospect. Can you get him for $10 million a year for 2 years. My guess is no that he is not the Twins preference and it’s Hoskins because they want a platoon advantage and a right handed bat. The Twins are going to try to get the best deal and value. My bigger concern is still the bullpen.

The only thing it does do is remove a chair for a 1st baseman free agent. Between the Orioles needing to trade 1 and the free agents it increases the Twins leverage slightly.

SWR is probably a little light but you never know, just look at what Seattle did with Ford for Ferrer. I think we have to have a few trades. SP seems to be too deep and I don’t see Larnach remaining on the roster, but I may be wrong. Still a lot of bats and outfielders available before we would get clarity on that.

Mayo has a value of 18 Mountcastle is a -3 Mountcastle has upside as much as Hoskins. I would still prefer O'Hearn, but If you got Cash and Mountcastle for a lottery ticket - with a net salary around 3-4 Million. It wouldn't be a terrible option. He is one of the best defensive 1st baseman. With Mayo are you willing to give up Lopez?

1. What the Braves did was historic. The Braves odds to win the WS at the start of the playoffs was +1400. There odds on July 31st to win the WS was .008% . They only had an 11.9% chance to get to the playoffs. There was massive calls for the Braves to sell their rentals. The fact they completely defied the odds was crazy. The only thing I will say about the Twins last year was team chemistry. It was an absolute mess. Between Correa, Jax, ect I am not sure you could have gotten everyone on the same page to win. Just look at Paddacks comment once being traded to Detroit. Selling off rentals when not expected to make the playoffs is fine. Trading the entire bullpen that you possibly could - is a more sinister plot and manipulation. They didn't trade Topa because he was on the injury list. I can't remember the reasoning on Sands. Even if you can get cost savings for the rest of the year and rebuild on the fly - you are still doing it for a reason and money isn't the primary issue. If you followed the Houston Astros or even the Philedalphia 76ers, this is almost exactly out of their playbook for tanking. We just did it for the last part of the season rather than the entire season. It really doesn't change the math much. We obviously won't agree so both of us probably just need to move on.

Pitchers - Ian Anderson, Jesse Chavez, Max Fried, Luke Jackson, Dylan Lee, Chris Martin, Matzek, Minter, Morton, Smith, Smyly, Right I don't think you realize how similar that is to the Twins - 2 really good starting pitchers a 3rd ok, a good back in bullpen - the rest meh. Infielders - Adrianza, Albies, Arcia, Freeman, Riley Swanson Twins most likely infield - Keaschall, Correa, France Lewis France is the weakspot - had I been a manager I would have picked up a more legit 1st base Outfield -Duvall, Gore, Heredia, Pederson, Rosario, Soler - Duvall (the best a 1.7 WAR before being traded - for wait for it Alex Jackson), Rosario (.4 WAR Cleveland traded him for Sandoval who they cut and cash), Soler was hitting .192 for Kansas City, Joc Pederson from the cubs for Bryce Ball. Twins - Buxton, Bader, Wallner/Larnach Twins win this hands down with quality defense Catcher - Contreras D"Arnaud Twins - Jeffers Vazquez Advantage Braves

https://www.royalsreview.com/2017/10/23/16517230/the-astros-are-proof-that-tanking-works

My stance was I didn’t want them to trade. That was a roster that could win a WS. You had the pitching. You needed hitting to get hot. I would argue the roster they had was not much different than ours, go look at their WS roster, their outfield they got for peanuts, other teams effectively gave them away. At this point you don’t understand facts. You can’t acknowledge Atlanta was under .500 when they won the World Series. If you aren’t going to get in the playoffs and you decide to sell there is an advantage to tanking the second half and getting a better pick which they did. It helps your long term outlook of trying to be successful, I’m done arguing with someone who wants to be blatantly ignorant. It’s a good thing you don’t run an organization. If you and USAchief don’t think the second half was tanking then what the hell do you call it. Falvey said it improved the team in the short term. Now that was a load of BS.

Was going through the top 100 prospects. Check out Brady Ballinger 1st/DH - but video game numbers. Currently 60th ranked recruit. He just popped out as I was going through some of the players stats. Has a 20 for run ranking LOL. .433/.548/.690 at Community college .361/.504/.685 at Kansas

Atlanta's record at the trade deadline was below .500 (51-52). They had to trade for outfield help due to significant injury- including Soler, our own Eddie Rosario, Adam Duvall and Joc Pederson. Ronald Acuna suffered torn ACL on July 10th, they were down Mike Soroko, Marcell Ozuna who was on administrative leave. https://www.mlb.com/news/braves-2021-trade-deadline-moves-world-series-title It appears you are no longer having a serious discussion or want to look at actual facts or similar scenarios. You have a gripe and you want it known. Why you attacked my stance i have no idea. The more and more I have read there are currently 3 elite prospects, possible 4 - but there is a lot of solid depth behind it. At no point did I say they traded all the bullpen because it would net them a top 3 pick (I said the goal of tanking was to secure a top 5 pick link in 2023 go look at my tank thread). What I have said, the losing (due to selling off the bullpen) resulted in poor play, a much lower record and the 2nd odds that resulted in the 3rd pick - for a lottery that in general has a ton of variability. My initial thoughts at the deadline was they were shooting for a top 5 pick. The specific scenarios for this year resulted in a team with the 4th worst record getting the 3rd best pick. All in all in seems to have worked out ok. Believe what you want - along with the prospects the goal was to get a high pick to get another elite player into the system. Johnson, Zoll and Falvey have all mentioned they are wanting a high pick to get one of the elite players in the draft. They won't say they specifically tanked for it - read between the lines buddy.

Toronto has much better hitters than we do. Their hit tool has been significantly better. Ty France played slightly better for Toronto. A little better BA, same OBP slightly better slug. Coaching can only do so much with the Clay they have. I personally think Larnach, Lewis, and currently Lee are all subpar hitters. Which is weird because all 3 had good hit tools. I still have some slight hope Lee can turn into a high OBP .800 OPS player. We will see if that comes to fruition.

Its the same discussion I had the other day. Twins need to pick a lane. Right now they did the partial tear down and doing a partial rebuild and they can have an ok to good team but not good enough. I do the trade and build up at the same time. I trade Ryan now - fans opinions be damned. He will bring you back pieces now. I get the best reliever I can - Fairbanks or Jansen. If the season doesn't go well you can trade them at the deadline. O'hearn is likely the best bat we can get. I sign him as well. Trade Larnach or a bucket of balls. Get another RP. Now maybe some of the roster construction changes with the Ryan trade. Trading Ryan now maximizes his value. You are playing for a healthy 1st half from Pablo Lopez. If he looks like a legit #1 or #2 starter you have another great trade chip at the deadline. 26 and 27 likely won't matter. So saving these players isn't a big deal. I would keep Jeffers - Buxton is questionable. I would not be opposed to trading him either. There are so many different moving parts. You have 2 players at maximum value in Buxton and Ryan.

Roster construction is a mess right now. No way around it. Moving Keaschall just seems to open more questions. So if Keaschall goes to the OF, who plays 2nd - Julien (yuck), Clemens if sign 1st baseman, utility signee, Larnach is getting traded. To me they should have just cut bait earlier, but they seem to think they can get some value for him I just don't see it. As to the rookies, Gonzalez needs a little more run at AAA. Rodriguez should be the one up but injuries have slightly derailed it. If Rodrigues looks like he is winning the left field competition, this current Keaschall to OF trial will likely go to the wayside. I really want to run with one of the rookies this year from the start of the season and see if they can be rookie of the year. That is Rodriguez. I would hope Gonzalez would get a bump with his excellent season, but as of now with the updated lists he hasn't jump to the top 100 on 2 of the lists.

Lets create a highly improbably trade, create an article about it, even though it has no probability of coming to fruition. The new head coach has already stated high expectations for Lewis, and Lewis has stated he really likes him. I do think Lewis sometimes says what is expected, but last year several times he went off script. So it could be a honeymoon or they generally are on the same page. I see no point in trading a 3rd baseman we don't have a replacement for and whose value is significantly lower than Abrams. Rant ended.

I am really surprised Lombard isn't included here as an option. In a lot of aspects he is considered just as high - good hit tool- great power and the best speed of the 4 short stops. Right now defense is just a tad behind. I am also surprised Emerson isn't included as an option. The MLB draft more than anything is not dependant on who is the best player. Its what the teams philosophies are and does the player match that, Do they try to take a lower level player to save money. With that being said, it wouldn't surprise me at all if Chowolsky falls to our pick. Either due to some underperformance or overperformance of other players. Boleman is the player I think we need to watch this year. He has been the best prep pitcher - lefty excellent control - good velocity and 4 really good pitches. He is 6'4". Current velocity sits 94-96 but I expect that to go up this year and possibly more once in an organization. Gave up no runs in high school last year - dominated the showcase tournaments, and ended as the ace of the US national team - striking out 17 in 11 innings. Even still with the ties to Alabama- my betting odds are on Lebron. He is a really really good player, and other just needing to tweak the aggressiveness a bit - he is almost the penultimate SS - and he isn't a pop up. He has been viewed as the top pick in this class for the last 2 years. I really don't think you go wrong with any of the top 3 shortstops.

The other day we got more info about not only who they have talked to at 1st - Bell, O'Hearn, Hoskins - we also got a salary number - they are operating that they have $20 million they can spend on free agents. So now we can get a better picture across the board. 1. First Base - I take O'Hearn (2 yrs 24 million) - he hits the ball he gets on base - he is not a thumper and hits from the left side which likely means he is the most expensive. Last year we were moving to more players with better hit tools, this would be a move in the right direction. Hoskins (1 yr 6-7 million) - he has upside, I do think he was hindered with the wrist last year and still put up decent numbers. He hits from the right side. As of now I think he is the target. 2. Relievers - in the current format if its Hoskins then that leaves $13 million for the bullpen. To me its pretty clear they want a closer. Fairbanks is coming in around $10 to $15 million per a year. He has a very wide spectrum. The next option is Jansen. He had a really good year. Current projections are $8-$12 million. At that point you end with a decent reliever possibly a lefty for around $3 million. 3. I do have a question if they can add to salary if they were to trade a player like Larnach. I was very surprised when they tendered him. The question has always been can they trade him for something, or anything. There is a potential if he was traded and the budget for free agents is around $25 million we could be in play for O'hearn, Fairbanks and a cheaper reliever. I still think we are a utility player short (SS backup).

You are looking at it wrong. How different were the Twins from the years the Braves won it all. They were down and out and added to the roster. Cheap additions but adds none the less. And not selling talent. Last years team had a chance to compete at the highest levels. After the all star break for whatever reason they melted. as to teams you are missing Marlins, Diamondbacks, cardinals, Rays, Angels, Giants. Below them was the A’s, Braves, Orioles, Pittsburg White Sox Colorado and Washington. They were all bunched within 5 wins on August 15th. So let’s just go with your theory Twins stay pat at 6. They got the Braves lottery balls so they would now have the 9th pick in the MLB draft. When Zoll and Falvey were talking about at which pick are they breaking stuff, they were obviously counting a return from the draft. They were going to be mad at 5 or higher and disappointed with 4. They fully calculated losing more games, otherwise there was no point to dismantling the bullpen. Or at the very least Stewart and Varland. The sell off was strategic. Destroy a part of the team that would tank the season that would be the cheapest and easiest to put back together, even if not the same quality. The quality of the 2026 draft was already being discussed. Johnson wanted 3 or higher for draft purposes. Meaning as of now he has a clear top 3 in my opinion. Chowolsky, Emerson or a LeBron. LeBron is safer, but for me Emerson is the best talent of the 3.

Colorado and Washington were disallowed but were guaranteed the 10th and 11th pick. They were not tied for 6th. There was no less than 12 teams at the time that I was tracking. Go check my tank thread. You did have several teams bunched together. Had we kept the group together and than played solid you very well could have seen a repeat of last year of the 12th best odds but dropping to 16th. Also had we kept the team together with Keashall coming back yes I could have seen us going on run no different than the May run. When you have lower teams jump you obviously drop and if enough teams drop you then get bumped below Washington and Colorado who had worst records. Yes we could have jumped up, but you just don’t know with a lottery. Overall the lottery worked pretty good for the Twins all things considered. The bad outcomes were eliminated. Fyi - no one can legitimately say the 8th pick is as good as the 1st pick. Even still you can run into situations like the 2023 draft where they said there were 5 elite talents. That was pretty spot on. I don’t understand your negative view of the 3rd pick. Go listen to the Geek and Gleeman about the value of a high pick in the draft.Listen to the quote that a high pick is better than any of the prospects we received at deadline. Secondly stating the total draft allotment is more important than the picks. There can be contact with agents regarding the salaries they want. It’s how you you end up with funky drafts like Texas 3 years ago with effectively 2 elite pitchers with Porter being picked in the 4th round for $3.5 million. A. It’s a strong draft, the third pick should get you an elite prospect that you can’t acquire through trades, and today the draft is a long ways out so stating today’s rankings is how you will pick would obviously not be a smart strategy. With the 3rd pick it opens up options of taken the elite player or there may be a situation where there aremultiple players you like and you can get a really good player cheaper and bank money for a really good HS prospect. I stated before the goal was a top 3 pick and that’s what they got. You had a little over 40% chance of a top 2 pick and around a 60% chance of a top 3. For the odds probabilities we effectively landed where we should have. Zoll and Falvey have an entire article about it. Alas you seem to be more upset about the trades, management and ownership more than anything. All I try to figure out is how the team I cheer for can get better.

The three they talked with were O Hearn, Bell and Hoskins. Per Hayes

He has one thing to work on, drill the outside pitch to the opposit field. Going for max velocity and trying to pull an outside pitch results in whiffs or weak contact. If he does that he will start seeing more inside pitches he can crush. If I were him I would be getting 200 to 300 balls a day opposite field.

I called the DFA, and even the potential player picked - even if it was traded. Not often it plays out potentially the way you expected.

I first thought they were willing to run with a Susac/Jackson C tandem and they were trading Jeffers. Susac in my opinion is a back up catcher for this year. He is a decent asset that was left unprotected. Obviously enough that giants were willing to give up a lottery ticket for him.

So we flipped the number 4 pick and 100k in rule 5 for a lottery ticket. 16 year old Miguel Caraballo with .876 OPS, not bad.

Kirby - Point 1 - Money allocated- There was a 4 million difference between the 1st pick and the 8th pick in last years draft, the 3rd pick is 1.5 million less than the 1st pick. The Twins will have a much larger budge. Lets say they think Emerson or Lebron are really good prospects, but they like Boleman just as much and feel comfortable with the SS they have in the system and they can sign him for $1.5 million less than the allotted amount. They can effectively pick up a really good prep player with there compensatory pick in the second round for $2.5 million. Point 2 - A lot of variability can occur between now and draft time. Injuries, underperformance overperformance. If you are going to put a lot of your eggs into 1 draft - you A. want some elite players likely available if that is the plan B. You want a lot of solid depth if there is underperformance or injuries. The Twins had the 11th or 12th worst record at the trade deadline. The difference in a 60 level prospect and 55 level prospect or even a 50 level prospect is immense Kirby. 25-30 million of value potentially between those levels. If we had continued to just play the year, and the way the draft broke, didn't get a top 6 pick and then all the other spots got filled, 13th might have been the best we could have been this year. Look at Miami - dropped from 9th to 13th.