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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    Lefty hitters often struggle against southpaw pitchers, yes... But Arcia doesn't just struggle. He's absolutely horrid against lefties. He has a .266 OBP against them and a .613 OPS. Morneau's career OPS against lefties is .100 OPS higher. Morneau was also a much better hitter against all pitchers, which makes it easier to stomach mediocrity against same-handed pitching. During his breakout season of 2004, his OPS against lefties was: .240 .289 .427 .716 Arcia's 2014 OPS against lefties (same age): .198 .261 .313 .574 There's "good hitter but mediocre against lefties", which is pretty common among good lefty hitters. Then there's "OMG cover your eyes, this guy is facing a lefty". Morneau was the former, Arcia is currently the latter.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    *scratches head in confusion* What blocking system is used at your work, Mike? You should get some kind of screen that reveals the name of the software blocking the site.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    For me, it's not about "knowing" so much as "this player has the type of floor that could put him out of baseball in 3-4 years". Arcia doesn't have faults, he has some glaring issues that need to be resolved for him to be a long-term fixture at a defensive position. If he doesn't fix one or more of them, he's a platoon bat. Platoon bats don't get extensions. The day Byron Buxton hits Minnesota, I won't know if he'll be a 90 OPS+ player or a 140 OPS+ player... But I'd pursue an extension anyway because Buxton, as an up-the-middle defender, can be of real value whether he hits like Babe Ruth or Nick Punto. Sano, while not a defensive force, should hit enough to be a DH no matter what happens so an extension should be explored there as well. Arcia hasn't shown that he can even hit enough to hold down DH. It's about risk mitigation. Is the floor of this player so low that he could be out of baseball before the contract is done? If yes, then I drag my feet on an extension until that player shows me he can hold a place on an MLB roster.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    Like you imply, I think the biggest reason we haven't seen more aggressive extensions is because the players haven't been worth it. Brian Dozier was a middling prospect who floundering and then found a groove. It would have been a big risk to sign him last offseason when 2013 could have easily been a career year for Brian. Oswaldo Arcia is a prospect with a ton of warts. Horrible defense, bad discipline, lots of power. If he is relegated to a platoon or DH role - a real possibility - his value falls through the floor. Trevor Plouffe had many of the same issues; thankfully, he managed to work through them and become a solid player but one can't hand out extensions with the hope a player improves drastically to earn that money. Even Span had the traits of a guy who was a near lock to earn modest extension money: solid up-the-middle defense, good/great discipline, and solid speed. It was a pretty low-risk deal. Span's floor was a no-hit up-the-middle guy who can get on base and help you defensively at a critical position. That's worth some money whether he hits .300 or not (and it should be noted that since having two consecutive 100+ OPS+ seasons to start his career, he has only done it twice in the five years following). It wouldn't surprise me one bit to see the Twins aggressively pursue extensions for Sano and/or Buxton, who profile as the type of player you want to lock up.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    no
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, my thoughts as well. Arcia has some pretty huge question marks so locking him up could be saving a ton of money or it could be throwing money on the fire. Brian Dozier had few question marks by comparison so the deal made more sense. If Arcia was a better defender, I'd be all over an extension... But if he was a better defender, he'd be a better player with fewer question marks so we're back at square one.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, it has been a great thread all-around. Lots of debate, lots of opinions, lots of angles from which to examine the situation.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    This. I'm not much of a Libertarian anymore - too much of that party has been infested with Republicans too embarrassed to associate with the party but still hold the inane views of the modern GOP - but a strong, rational Republican Party is good for the country as a whole. I've moved away from the Libertarian viewpoint of small government at all costs and onto the ideal of fiscal responsibility of all costs, preferably at the state government level. Let Mississippi burn for all I care, they're hopeless anyway... But if Minnesota wants a large state government and can afford it, more power to 'em.
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    It's actually pretty great. Last time around, the Republican primary was Clownshoe, Inc. Bring on the Ted Cruzes and Michele Bachmanns of the world... All they do is make the party look bad to normal, moderate adults. It's my opinion that the GOP needs an enema and the more outrageous the candidates get and the more absurd their policies, the more likely it is that we'll see significant party reform in the near future.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    But to turn down an option, the team usually has to eat $1-2m so you're turning a potential qualifying offer acceptance into a $17-18m contract, which is elite player money. And there's always space on the roster for a guy who's so good that he's looking at a $50m+ contract in the open market. With the new qualifying offer rules, the amount of money a player has to turn down has created a scenario where only a handful of free agents are willing to try their hand at the open market every season. On top of that, if a player is good enough to turn down a qualifying offer, you take the team option because trading 4-5 months of Brian Dozier will net you a good prospect, someone much more likely to help the MLB team than a late first or second round pick.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    My point is that if you think the player is worth that dollar amount, tradability of the contract is implied. Make a good decision on player value and the rest falls in line.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    No, it's not really very smart. If a player is so good that he can afford to turn down a qualifying offer, you want that player on your team for the option price every time, if only to trade him early in the season (which will net you more of a sure thing than a comp pick).
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    I don't really think that tradability should enter contract negotiations unless a no-trade clause is on the table. The cleaner one can keep discussions and negotiations, the better. Player A is worth X Dollars to play for our team. Negotiate from that point... If you're worried about tradability, you should have other, more serious, doubts about offering the contract in the first place.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    Not to mention that it wouldn't make the slightest bit of sense. Pretty much every team option comes with a $1-2m decline cost, which the team has to eat... And there's no reason to decline an option if you actually want the player. If the player is good enough to decline a ~$15m qualifying offer because he's going to get more on the open market, you want that player on your team.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    Pelfrey's pitch selection as a starter: *catcher puts down one finger* Pelfrey's pitch selection as a reliever: *catcher puts down one finger*
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    The only way to get draft pick compensation is to offer a player a ~$15m qualifying offer (the number varies slightly by year, it's an average of top-paid players) and have them turn it down.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    So that's what Gardy has been up to recently.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    Interesting. So I was right about that part of the deal. Four years at $20m seemed a touch on the low side to me after Dozier racked up 9 WAR in two seasons. It makes sense that they wanted the guaranteed money to set Brian up for life while still getting a shot at huge free agency money in his early 30s. Sacrifice a couple of million now - while still getting $20m - for a shot at $50m+ down the road.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, not really sure what I was thinking with that statement. Grab the pitchforks, everybody!
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    Oh, for sure. I wouldn't rule out a trade by any means, just pointing out that it probably didn't even enter the Twins' thought process when signing the deal.
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, it's always a good idea to cut open a teenager before exploring other options, especially when we have no idea whether Thorpe would have even agreed to surgery last fall. How many times are we going to have this argument? In the past, it has been revealed that the Twins decided against surgery at the recommendation of the surgeon. I don't know about the rest of you but I'm a web developer. I can point to an elbow on an X-Ray. Past that point, I'm going to go with the opinion of the guy who went to school for a decade to learn about the human body.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    Career year is a bit misleading... Dozier was close to a 4 WAR player in 2013 and a tick over 5 WAR in 2014. He's had over 1100 plate appearances of consistent performance. And we're talking a yearly rate that is less than Mike Pelfrey will receive this season and less than what Kevin Correia received last season. The upside of this contract is pretty solid and the downside isn't enough money to really worry about... Roughly 1/20th of payroll averaged over four seasons. I think this deal is pretty solid on clubhouse goodwill alone. The Twins just showed that they are willing to hand over money to solid young players that perform on the baseball diamond. That has to motivate guys like Arcia, Santana, Vargas, etc. in some capacity.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    Agreed. While this deal makes Dozier slightly more tradable, I doubt that was even a consideration for the Twins. This is the time to start locking up core players for a return to relevance. Having Dozier signed at a reasonable rate for four years makes it just that much easier to manage payroll over the next four years.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    Hey everybody, locking this thread. Carry on the conversation over here: http://twinsdaily.com/topic/17357-article-minnesota-twins-and-brian-dozier-sign-4-year-extension/
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    I expected one free agency year, a total deal somewhere in the $36-40m range for five years. $24m in arb, $12-16m free agency year.
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