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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    Interesting. Did you happen to compile a list? I'd be interested in taking a look at it.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    With Cubans and the Asian markets, I'd agree. The Twins have not performed as well as they need to in those regards. But with the traditional international market, I don't think they've had the wrong approach. They go big when they think it fits (Sano, now Javier) and routinely go for quantity over expensive quality (Kepler, Polanco, etc etc... the list is as long as my arm) when that suits their purposes. No matter whether you agree with their strategy or not, it's a strategy and "cheap" doesn't seem to be the prevailing aspect of it... They target players they like and pursue them. Sometimes those players are really expensive but most of the time, the Twins have opted for multiple $500k-$1.5m guys over the big splash of a $3m+ guy... Though they're not averse to that in the right situation, either. When you're rebuilding a depleted farm system, I'm not sure that isn't the best approach, money be damned. If you need players and lots of 'em, it makes all the sense in the world to pursue five $750k guys over one $3.5m guy, knowing that it's going to be 5+ years until any of them make the majors.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    I understand being hesitant about how much the Twins use sabremetrics due to their historically conservative approach to the game but I don't think there's much to worry about here. Jack Goin was promoted to head the stats department in May of 2011. Ryan returned to the GM's chair in November of 2011. In early 2013, the Twins had expanded their stats department to include two more people under Goin. That winter, the Twins signed two sabr-friendly pitchers, Nolasco and Hughes. Obviously, the results were... mixed. It seems unlikely Ryan would go through the effort to expand the department only to ignore the people in it, especially given the Nolasco (classic xFIP underperformer) and Hughes (Yankee Stadium whipping boy) signings shortly thereafter.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    Nice article. One curious omission is all that talk about specific pitching approaches and not one reference to Kurt Suzuki calling those pitches (though he does earn a nice footnote about pitch-framing).
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    DFA Boyer is such a gimme move I can't believe it hasn't been done yet. In Duensing's defense, he's been adequate of late. He stays not because he's that good, but because the other options are that bad.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    Okay, enough with the strawmen arguments about theoretical posters, people. Taking veiled cheapshots at other posters by using generalizations and obscuring your target (but not really obscuring it because we all know who you're talking about) is not okay. This applies to both sides of the debate. Keep it on topic or shut your trap.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    Dave, you're more than a little bit nuts about Escobar. Why would you cut him when you could easily deal him for a D-level prospect in about five minutes? It's not even a little bit hard to move the likes of Eduardo Escobar (and probably Nunez as well). Teams are always looking for futility options at the deadline, particularly 26 year old futility guys with years of team control.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    A fair point. I was having trouble numbering which deal is my preference, as they are somewhat reliant on one another. Upon rethinking it, I could easily slot Tulo as #1 and my preferred deal of the three. There's also a fourth option that I consider reasonable: 4. Pick up any assortment of inexpensive shortstop, catcher, and bullpen options and cross your fingers. That's definitely not my first choice but I wouldn't squawk too much if that's the route Ryan takes.
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    I also dislike the prospect cost of Lucroy but the Twins have zero chance of filling the catcher spot internally. Zero. And something needs to be done at catcher. Under no circumstances can the team enter 2016 with Suzuki starting and enact his vesting option for 2017.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    Okay, I'm curious to get a read on what posters would do this deadline. You can list specific players or not, up to you... Though it's better to put specific names as goals, in my opinion. I'm going to list three plans in order of preference: 1. Trade for Lucroy, get a bullpen arm or four. Lucroy will be pricey. Maybe Berrios + Kepler? The bullpen arms should come cheaply enough. Clipboard would be nice. In this scenario, I move Escobar to short and call it a day. 2. Trade for Weiters and a bullpen arm or four. Pierzynski is also a valid option in place of Wieters. I'd like Wieters in hopes of extending him this winter. Again, Clippard, O'Day are valid pen options. I care less about the name than the cost, which is why I'd avoid Papelbon. Escobar goes to short again. 3. Tulowitzki for Gibson + Kepler + Polanco. This one hurts but it takes talent to get talent. I'd also get a pen arm. I'd run with Suzuki in this scenario, as much as it pains me to say.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    His bat isn't subpar if he continues playing good centerfield defense. I think that's where we're looking at him differently. Hicks doesn't really need power if he can hit over .260, maintain his very good discipline, and play center.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    As I said earlier in the year, his new approach warranted optimism. He wasn't getting results but if the contact tool came around, it could radically change him as a player. Do I think Hicks is a .900 OPS player? LOL, no. But right now he's doing all the things well-rounded players do to succeed. Good contact with a reasonable BABIP, great discipline, solid power. Will it continue? I have no idea but he's showing the makings of a sustainable player, though I can't believe he's a .900 OPS guy going forward.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    It's premature to say Hicks is having a career year. It could be a blip on the radar, it could be a 25 year old player turning the corner. That's why I noted "assuming current production continued through September" in my post. People wrote off Hicks far too early. Yeah, he was terrible. He was also 23-24 years old and badly mismanaged. He's not some 29 year old jouneyman. He's a 25 year old that still has big upside. He may not continue being the hitter he is today but I wouldn't bet against it, either.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    Buxton has to play at some point and he's not going to spend much more time in the minors. Even if he comes up and posts an OPS of .600, he has value because he's an outstanding defender with ridiculous speed. And I really disagree the Twins don't have a lot of OF talent. Buxton Hicks Rosario Kepler Arcia All are in AA or higher and three of them are natural centerfielders. Trading one of them to shore up a weakness at another position is smart management. Is there a chance all of them fail? Sure... but that's a chance you need to take to improve the team as a unit.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    To me, I don't mind if they're aggressive this deadline. I'd applaud it if done correctly, actually. But I don't want expensive rentals and I don't want Hamels. That's not aggression, that's foolishness given the makeup of this team. If the Twins acquire Tulo or Lucroy, good on them. They're laying the foundation for a stronger 2015, 2016, 2017 by acquiring very good players at positions of weakness. I applaud that and it's definitely "aggressive". I'd prefer to see the team try to trade-and-sign Wieters at a much lower cost but given that he's a Boras client, that's a tough sell.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    It'd be great to move either Hicks or Rosario but I think their value in trade won't come until the offseason. Rosario is probably worth more right now but Hicks will probably bring more in the offseason (extrapolating current performance through September). Considering the team has Buxton in the wings, it makes sense to move one of those players if someone is interested.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    I won't argue that point. No matter how you view the situation and the team's needs, Capps/Ramos was a joke and the vast majority of us called it at the time.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    Absolutely, which is why I think a fire sale is foolish. Where we differ is how much talent the Twins should acquire in 2015, where that talent should play, and how much they should give up for it. The Twins shouldn't give up but I don't see them having much of a shot in the playoffs with this roster + one great player (though obviously, I'm not against Tulo or Lucroy if that comes to fruition). Where we part ways is Hamels, when you get right down to it. I think that's a bad use of resources on a team with a competent, though unspectacular, rotation.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    Eh, I don't know if "plenty of time" is the correct way to phrase it. If I recall correctly - and I'm working from hazy memories here so correct me if I'm wrong - Morneau was expected to come back from his injury pretty quickly. Obviously, that didn't happen.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    He was injured early in the season and has turned it around nicely since that time. OPS by month: April: .393 June: .671 July: .772
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    Yep. Hoping to get struck by lightning multiple times and walk away from the experience like Frankenstein's monster is a bad long-term strategy.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    My opinion is that you either go early or go late. Go early (as in July 10th early) and get more valuable games out of that player at a higher price. Go late and try to get a deal at the eleventh hour. Either is fine with me, really. I would have banked on going late after trying multiple AAA guys in June and July but whatever. There isn't even a horse left for me to beat on that topic. It was reduced to a puddle of goo weeks ago.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    Cole Hamels but even if I'm super-optimistic, it only moves the Twins' chances from maybe 45 to 55%. In a one game playoff, I don't like those odds. I think the current WC setup is terrible and I'd prefer the Twins not bank on something so entirely luck-driven.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    I don't trade Glen Perkins unless the return is insane. His value today is not terribly different than it will be 12 months from now barring any kind of catastrophic injury (and that's a risk you run with every player). Given the Twins' bullpen woes, I wouldn't trade the one piece who makes it even a little respectable (and this is coming from a person who thinks the closer role is largely manufactured).
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    But that's not what I said. I look at a rotation with Hamels in it and see a team that's still not very good. Hell, just a few posts ago I called the rotation "a position of relative team strength".
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