Brock Beauchamp
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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp
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Twins should be buyers this offseason
Brock Beauchamp replied to AZTwin's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Yeah, when I say they should buy, that doesn't mean they can't sell at the same time. Depending how Polanco does, Dozier can return a very good prospect. Depending what you can buy/trade this offseason, Santana could be traded without hurting the 2017 team too much. -
You did not make a straw man argument, as you were stating an opinion of your own and not rebutting another poster.
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I don't think it's that easy. Outfield shifts are largely independent of men on base situations and that seems to be hurting Mauer more than anything else, particularly his extra base power.
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I'm about 30 pages into White Trash. If you want some illumination on Trump's followers, this is the best I've seen yet and I'm still reading about 1600s America.
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I still believe Buxton is a victim of his own success. It's hard to learn when you're facing inferior opponents who allow you to thrive using only natural talent. Let him play in Minnesota. Continue doing so until he either succeeds or hits 1000+ PAs and becomes who he will always be.
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Twins should be buyers this offseason
Brock Beauchamp replied to AZTwin's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
I'm waiting a few weeks to create a "3/4 season" thread but the gist is this: The Twins are who most of us thought they were. They were a combination of terrible and amazingly unlucky to start the first quarter season. Since that time, they're roughly a .500 team. They're similar to last year, though more of the performance is coming from players under 25 years old. That's who we thought they were. A 75-83 win team built on young players. If they finish the season with 70-73 wins, that will mean they played 120 games at a .500 record. A team trending in that direction should start buying players in the offseason. In the Twins' case, that probably means a starter and/or catcher. -
There should be no "probably" in that statement. Willingham had marginal value for awhile. Perkins was the only guy with legit "top 50 prospect" value. The Yankees are in a very different situation.
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One big reason why I'm skeptical of Mauer being an .800 OPS player is how he's living and dying by his BB/K rates. Month: BB% / K% / OPS April: 18.9 % / 8.5 % / .893 May: 10.0 % / 22.7 % / .741 June: 11.2 % / 20.6 % / .596 July: 15.8 % / 10.5 % / .718 August: 16.7 % / 13.3 % / 1.633 Those numbers are all over the place. Is Joe a 15% BB guy and a 13% K guy or is he a 10% BB guy and a 20% K guy? I'm unwilling to draw a conclusion about the future of Joe Mauer until I see how those numbers play out. He looked fantastic for the first five-ish weeks of the season but promptly fell off a cliff. Now he has rebounded... Which guy is he?
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I think Google's biggest problem might be how it has all these great ideas but isn't equally as great at monetizing them... Yet, anyway. They're doing some amazing stuff with deep learning, autonomous vehicles, virtual reality... The list is as long as my arm. But they still earn the overwhelming majority of their revenue from the core business. I'm hoping the Alphabet restructure is going to pay off in the long run (and I think it will).
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I've had a couple grand in Google for the past... two-ish years?... and honestly, they've been disappointing compared to my other tech stocks in Netflix, Apple, and Amazon. But I see Google being a steady climber for a long, long, loooooong time. They're more well-positioned than any other tech company, in my opinion. I'd rank maybe Amazon second, thanks to their rock-solid Kindle platform and their server infrastructure. Or maybe flip the two. Dunno... But I lean toward Google being the more solid company thanks to their burgeoning diversity (which, to this point, hasn't been as profitable as it probably should be... But it took Amazon over 15 years to turn a profit so there you go).
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This prompted me to buy and download the novel White Trash, which I've been meaning to read for quite some time.
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Choosing when to select the current endpoint is, in itself, a selective endpoint. Just as the "Mauer Outage" thread was a selective endpoint. I'm not bashing the article, as it was addressing the trend at the time... But (at least to my recollection) it did not draw a permanent conclusion about the state of Joe Mauer. No one is rebutting Dave's statement that Joe Mauer is, as of today, an .800 OPS player in 2016. We're rebutting the statement that Joe Mauer is an .800 OPS player going forward.
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Man, I am so glad I stuck with Amazon. I bought into them somewhere around $340-350 and watched them stagnate for six months or more. Now they're my largest percentage gain stock at 115% gain, followed closely by Facebook (110%) and Netflix (102%). Apple used to be my best stock but they've wilted to about 50% gains (but that's okay because I still get a decent dividend from them). Between Amazon and the hosing I took on Groupon a few years back, that has cemented my feeling that I don't "play" the market unless I'm extremely confident in a short-term stock. If I believe in a company, I invest and stick with them.
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Sure, Trump hurt himself quite a bit but the post-convention polls take a few days to play out... I think it's six of one, half dozen of the other. Clinton balanced the scales with the convention at the same time Trump was pointing a shotgun at his own foot. We say this all the time in baseball talk... "He is who he is." When a player has a .650 OPS for five seasons, we admit he's a .650 OPS player. At this point, Donald Trump is who he is. He's a loudmouth buffoon who places bravado above all else. He's used to everyone listening to what he says because he's the boss and they have to listen. He can't coalition build, he doesn't listen to anyone, and he refuses to support those surrounding him, even though they're vital to his success... It's about the Donald all day, every day. And that can't win a general election. If he couldn't change his stripes after he locked down the nomination in May, he won't/can't change his stripes today. And that means he loses unless something goes horribly wrong with either America or the Clinton campaign.
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Well, yes and no. It wasn't *really* 50/50. Trump got his convention bump - which is almost always temporary - and Clinton hadn't yet held a convention to balance the scales. That doesn't mean this election is a sure thing (though I believe it requires a disaster to alter its outcome) but polls are always out of whack between the two conventions. Hillary has all the cards right now. She's polished, she's raising money like crazy, the party has (mostly) unified behind her, and she's likely to mop the floor with Trump in the debates. All the traditional hallmarks of the GOP have wilted with Trump: fundraising, grassroots efforts, party unity... They're all in chaos because Donald can't keep his mouth shut.
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http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2016/07/14/hillary_clinton_s_role_models_ad_is_extremely_effective.html Hillary is doing exactly what I thought she might... Why launch an attack ad when you can just let the other guy talk and do the work for you? While I generally hate the use of "think of our kids!!!11!eleven" in political discussions (it usually leads to bad ideas being forced upon us), this ad damned near perfect.
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I'm skeptical as well but if his wrist was a legitimate issue, I think he'll be a fine player in MLB.
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Technically you're right, I'm only saying I don't label players in that fashion based on partial season performances. If Mauer finishes the season with an .800 OPS, I'll be very optimistic about 2017.
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Should Sano Get Demoted?
Brock Beauchamp replied to MileHighTwinsFan's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Breath through mouth, yes or no? Yes: 99% No: 0% Do not understand question: 1% -
Santiago's career home/away splits are virtually indistinguishable from one another. He wasn't the beneficiary of a home field advantage. And he has pitched long enough where it's unlikely defense had much of an impact, either. When a guy crosses the threshold into 4+ seasons of pitching, the defense behind him has shifted enough players where it *should* approach something close to neutral. And it's not as if the Angels have been a pillar of defensive baseball over the past few years. They've been pretty good the past two years and were somewhat bad the year before that.
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Yeah. Right now, I'm thrilled with the .800 OPS but I'm waiting it out before calling him an .800 OPS player again. I was hopeful when Mauer started the season with such strong peripherals (walks up, strikeouts down) but as we all saw, that trend faded in a hurry.
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Holy ****.
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The market has been rolling. I'd let it continue rolling until you see the first dip, then consider bailing.
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The Yankees moved some high end players and brought back some fantastic prospects. It's not the same situation at all. I didn't expect to see every player get traded, which is why I specifically mentioned that had Antony moved one higher end guy with a fair return, he gets an A. And this is consistent with what I said two months ago when I put the over/under of guys traded at three. Move three guys, I'm happy. Move four, I'm ecstatic.
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There are a handful of players who could have been moved on top of the guys who were moved. Suzuki, Milone, Kintzler... And, course, Santana and Dozier. I just listed five guys. That's 20% of the 25 man roster. I like what Antony did this deadline. The return was close to on par with the value of each player. More could have been done, therefore he gets a B. Move Dozier for a top 100 prospect and that jumps to an A. The same goes for Santana. Maybe even Suzuki (though obliviously the return is much less than the other two guys). I don't see why it's so radical that I question some of the moves while liking the general direction of events. This isn't a binary situation.
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