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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    At this point, Mauer needs to be a platoon player. It's damned unfortunate how that concussion so completely derailed his ability to make solid contact (defensive shifts didn't do him any favors either) but the painful reality is that it's unlikely he'll ever be an .800 OPS player again. I know some people believe the concussion isn't what derailed Mauer but the stats pretty clearly define how different he was pre- and post-concussion. Here are his Soft/Med/Hard % stats from 2013, which are pretty close to averages of his pre-concussion seasons: 2013: 11.2% / 51.4% / 37.4% And now 2016, which is probably his best season since the concussion: 2016: 13.4% / 55.3% / 31.3% That simply is not the same player. His hard-hit percentage is down six points. His soft hit is up two points. That's a player who simply isn't making good contact with the ball anymore.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    Yep, learned a few nasty lessons early in my investing about timing the market. Basically, the people who do this for a living are far more informed than I am so I buy into a company I believe in and just stick with it. So far, it has worked out very well for me, much better than trying to game the market with layman knowledge.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm well aware what SLG means and, as snepp pointed out, ISO is the more accurate way to judge "power". But since you brought up Fangraphs, here are their definitions of the terms: ISO (Isolated Power): Average number of extra bases per at bat, calculated several ways such as SLG minus AVG. SLG (Slugging Percentage): Average number of total bases per at bat, calculated as Total Bases/AB. Notice which term contains the word "power" in it. Slugging is an accumulation of total bases, which gives high-average hitters an advantage because they accumulate so many singles (hence my Wade Boggs vs. Rob Deer comparison). ISO removes those singles to, well, isolate power.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    Dozier has been traded to the Toronto Maple Leafs for Kevin Durant, a 1987 Superbowl ring, and a cardboard cutout of Pele.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    This. ISO is a much better way to determine "power", as it removes batting average (ie. singles) from the conversation.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    Not really. Slugging is a product of hits. Technically speaking, a hitter could hit for a .600 batting average and, therefore, have a .600 SLG while hitting only singles. A .600 SLG is dominant, yet not a single person on the planet would consider that player a power hitter. Tony Gywnn and Wade Boggs had higher career SLG percentages than Rob Deer. Of the three, which player "hit for power"?
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    You're right about Murphy's defense, I wasn't mentally adjusting for fewer innings on defense. I only adjusted for fewer plate appearances while scanning the stats. When adjusted to not only being terrible on defense but also playing fewer innings, he's super-terrible.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    I'd probably take Murphy's 2016 from an offensive standpoint but it's close. Home runs are hard to ignore. But as overall players, Dozier had the better season. That shouldn't really be in dispute. B-Ref hated Murphy's defense while Fangraphs just thought it was pretty bad.
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    He didn't hit for more power than Dozier. He hit a lot more singles than Dozier and had an .080 higher batting average. Dozier had 35 doubles, 5 triples, 42 home runs. Murphy had 47 doubles, 5 triples, 25 home runs, though he did it in roughly 100 less PAs. But Dozier had 17 more homers, which gives him the nod in the power department. Doubles are nice but homers plate runs. It'd be close but I'd probably take Dozier's 2016 over Murphy. I love Murphy's OBP but he's a butcher in the field... And remember that this discussion was about "best second baseman", not "best hitting second baseman". In the hitting department, an argument could be made for either player. Dozier has the homers, Murphy the doubles and OBP. But on the defensive side of the field, Murphy is vastly inferior to Dozier. And besides, my point was originally about Murphy's outlier 2016 as a reason he shouldn't be third on the list. Dozier has been better for longer than Murphy and a few of the players below Murphy on the list have been better than either Dozier or Murphy for a much longer period of time (Pedroia and Kinsler). It's basically indefensible to have Murphy third on that list. No stat backs up that assertion, either career or 2016.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    Sure, it's possible they sell but I don't think we'll see San Diego pay into a new stadium. They're pissed, and rightfully so.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    Still no. What the hell is Daniel Murphy doing that far up the list? Are the MLB writers drunk? No way does Murphy belong above Kinsler, Pedroia, Dozier, or even Kipnis. WAR isn't the be-all, end-all of stats but Murphy has 4200 MLB PAs and a career 19.1 fWAR. His first 5+ fWAR season came in 2016 at age 31.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    Unlikely, as pretty much every Chargers fan I know wants to Mussolini-in-a-public-square the entire Spanos family right now. And they've wanted to do this for a few decades now. It's interesting how SoCal had, for so long, two of the worst owners in sports: the Spanos and Sterling.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    As a long-time resident of both SD and LA, I know the thinking behind this move: The Spanos family are giant, raging, burning ******* ****face pieces of ****. It's as simple as that. They're one of the worst owners in sports and have been waging a hot/cold war with San Diego since I moved there in 1992.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    Okay, this is weird. So some of you are getting redirects on both desktop and mobile? I believe it happened to me once on mobile (weeks ago) but I've never seen anything happen of this kind happen on desktop. I'll check in with our ad person and try to figure out what's happening.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    Don't get me wrong, I liked Strange, but as a fan of the 70s comics I felt they didn't dive into his world - which is quite separate from most of the Marvel universe - as much as they could have done. I also liked Cumberbatch in the film but, again, felt they didn't go far enough with the character... Strange is a mix of unlikable and just plain scary. He's a weird, weird dude who doesn't jibe with most of the rest of the universe. Strange was a product of a weird moment in time in Marvel comics, when they still focused on things that weren't entirely superhero-y. Ghost Rider, Doctor Strange, Shang Chi, and Man-Thing were good examples of characters Marvel created during their "second wave" of books through the late 60s and early 70s. Marvel was still going strong with war books through that time as well.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    While I'm on that thought, Doctor Strange was a good movie... But how much better could it have been if Marvel said "to hell with it" and made a proper Doctor Strange movie with a focus on "strange"? The scene against Dormammu was brilliant but left me with the feeling "why wasn't the rest of the movie like that?" Having a non-fight climax was a fantastic decision but put on display just how "normal" the rest of the movie felt in comparison. I feel Marvel kinda missed the boat with Strange. They could have shattered the "superhero movie" mold by making something truly weird and terrifying. After all, that's what Doctor Strange is all about. Instead, we get Vanilla Strange from the SFX crew that brought you Inception.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    I agree that trying to play the hits is a mistake, though I do love me some Sentinels. But, other than Magneto, I've always found X-Men villains lacking... And that worked because the main characters were so intriguing. It would be hard for me to care less about the likes of Sinister and Apocalypse. But if they had the courage to tell a good Morlocks story - which ties directly into the themes that make X-Men so good - I'd be all on board. I mean, the more you think about that film, the more it's screaming to be made because everything just slots into place so nicely. While it's easy to crap on George Lucas, his idea of "give the fans something they don't know they want" is something I wish more creatives would keep in mind. George tried - and failed - to do that with the prequels but hey, at least he tried.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    While all of these things are legitimate concerns, I've gained 20% on my portfolio in the past year and nearly 10% in the past 3-4 weeks (not including dividend distribution, which boosts me another 5-7% on the year). I can afford to take a hit at some point because I'm not sure when the market will adjust and had bailed out a year ago, all those gains (even if they someday vanish/diminish) wouldn't have happened. Basically, I'm not confident we know when we're going to stop "winning" and it's possible, maybe even likely, my recent gains will more than offset any market adjustment.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm also mildly concerned about JDL but it's not because the Dodgers are willing to trade him. The Dodgers are loaded with arms up and down the organization. It takes talent to acquire talent. Trading JDL makes sense because he's as expendable as a prospect of his calibre can be to the 2017 Dodgers. We're talking about a franchise that already has Julio Urias and Clayton Kershaw.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm not sure why they focused so heavily on Mystique but overall, I've liked the casting choices for the character (though I'm not in love with the character). As for Shaw in First Class, he was easily the weakest part of the film (well, January Jones was technically the weakest but she's part of his crew). Really, I liked the film because of the Magneto/Xavier dynamic. I thought it was better than even the Stewart/McKellen dynamic, which is really saying something. McAvoy and Fassbender absolutely killed it in that film. What I liked about First Class is that it went right into the X-Universe's wheelhouse by making it not about an enemy so much as the human interaction and ideologies of the characters. The actual enemy was an afterthought to me and I was okay with that. The more the movie drilled in on McAvoy and Fassbender, the more I liked it.
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    Interesting. I *really* liked First Class while I liked DoFP.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    I quite liked First Class and Days of Future Past but Apocalypse was a friggin' mess.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    I'd like to see that happen for sure.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    While both DH and 1B look like good platoon options, no way are the Twins going to dedicate a whopping four roster spots to the two least important defensive positions on the field. No team has the roster space to manage such a decision.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    Given Kinsler's age, salary, and contract demands, I'd rather have Dozier 11 times out of 10 and I suspect the Dodgers feel the same way.
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