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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    It seems to me like you're really focusing on minutia. As it turns out, the Twins did get Enlow in the third. Maybe it was a big risk. I'm not sure it was, as Enlow was widely considered first-round talent who needed big money to be lured away from LSU. Who else had $1.5m above slot in the second round? It's damned tough to backfill $1.5m in rounds 3-10, as the draft pool amounts are small. You need to find that kind of money at the top of the draft, which the Twins did. Draft picks 2-5 appear to be slot guys, or close to it. And by the time you reach Oakland at pick six, their first round slot money is already down to $5.3m, or $2.5m lower than the Twins. And then, to top it off, the Twins went underslot in both the 1s and 2nd round. They had a boatload of cash on hand at that point and probably got on the horn to Enlow immediately (if they hadn't already talked to him earlier in the day). Was it a risk? Sure. Was it a big risk? I'm not seeing it. If you're going to find Enlow money, you need to do it in the first round, probably at the top of the first round. No one did that except the Twins. And, in the end, it worked so who cares?
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    Exactly. The Twins said there wasn't much separation on their board between Lewis and the other people at the top of the draft board. So they managed to leverage Lewis' slot and picked up Enlow as a result, a guy who was as high as #14 overall on some boards (KLaw, I believe). So you get a guy who was somewhere between #3-5 on pretty much everybody's board and use that reach to also get a guy who was #14-29 on everybody's board. That's risky drafting but when it works out, it's also smart drafting.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    I was definitely lukewarm on day one but wanted to see how the rest of the draft played out on day two. Hard not to love day two so overall, I'm happy how things went down. Snagging Enlow was such a huge get. The Twins managed to pick up two guys with top 20 talent on a few analysts' boards. That's impressive.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    Also, Fangraphs has his DRS at -1 in 187.0 innings. Last year? -21 DRS in 637.1 innings.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    Tonight, should he play, Grossman will cross 600 plate appearances with the Twins, posting an OPS around .830 with very little statistical movement between 2016 and 2017. Is he a legit .800 OPS player yet?
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    Heh. I rarely watch games live. I usually catch up on them the next morning while working.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    Well, this game looks like fun. The Twins are averaging nearly four hits an inning.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    How is it not true that the Twins had the most money? The Twins had far and away the most money going into the third round of the draft. They had the biggest pool and went underslot with their first three picks.
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    It's possible other teams had the room to sign Enlow but the Twins had the most money. They had the largest overall pool and were the only team to go underslot with all three picks.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    True, but I suspect the Twins were confident no one had the slot money to pursue Enlow after they grabbed Leach. I'm sure it was something of a gamble but I'm not sure how much. And I think it's important to note they basically had the *only* shot at Enlow today. If they couldn't wrangle a deal with him overnight, no one could. And if they couldn't come to a deal with Enlow, they could pursue other (likely far less upside) guys with their picks today.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    One thing to consider about picking Leach first is that it gave the Twins an entire night to negotiate with Enlow, knowing no one could steal him away. Once the draft ended last night, the Twins were in the driver's seat in negotiating a hard price on the guy. If he wouldn't bite, then you move on to other players. There shouldn't have been any guesswork this morning. They either had a price negotiated with Enlow or they didn't.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    No, but thank you. I'm intentionally unemployed because we're nearing the end of the foster care application process. Still, makes it tough to drop to a single income. Well, mostly single... I still bring in money but only about 1/6th what I did working full-time.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    It's not about it being easier to trade, it's about going with players that deliver a higher hit rate and then trading off excess for something that fails more often, especially at lower levels. I'm just making up these numbers but if positional players hit at 70% and pitchers hit at 55%, how hard is is going to be to stockpile positional players to shuffle around for pitching as you need it? It won't be easy but it won't be impossible, either, particularly if you throw a little excess into the deal to make it happen. And the pitcher you get in return is going to be more of a sure thing than the guy you would have drafted, particularly any prep arm. And it's not as if the Twins are ignoring pitching, they've taken arms in rounds 3+.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    It's not stupid if you're generally risk-averse and gain a daily quality of life from not owing anyone money.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    No, it's not easy but it's not impossible, either. The 2016 Indians, who went seven games in the World Series, drafted zero players in their rotation. What I don't get is how people who generally accept advanced baseball strategy are so reluctant to accept that this is a legit strategy used by modern teams. Is it a good strategy in the long run? Well, I guess we'll find out sooner or later.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    The Indians seemed to do okay last season and they don't have more money than the Twins. "Good pitching beats good hitting" is only looking at the end result. What happens if you have 13 good hitters? Don't you think it's possible to acquire good pitching at that point? The fact is that we have no idea whether this was a good or bad draft. Only time will tell the outcome and declaring a failure on June 13th, 2017 is incredibly short-sighted.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm kind of an all-or-nothing guy and pretty anti-debt. Until we had to spring for a new Mazda last winter, the only debt we had was the mortgage. And getting rid of the mortgage also allows me to get rid of the Mazda payment in 18 months or so.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    Well, they got Enlow in the third round and have the money to sign him. Most everybody considers that a pretty good get.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    Sure, the Cubs have resources unavailable to the Twins but the Indians have a damned fine rotation (which Falvey is largely credited with building) and they don't have any more resources than the Twins. The idea behind avoiding early-round pitching isn't entirely about money, it's about opportunity cost. As we've seen with Stewart and Jay, pitching flames out at a high rate, higher than positional players. And if you have good positional players, you can always make trades. And given that arms are something of a crapshoot, then you go grab a ton of arms in the lower rounds and hope some of them pan out (as the Twins did with Enlow in the third round).
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    No, pitching shouldn't be the first priority. What you feel will be the best MLB player should be the first priority. Unless you think the Cubs have been doing things all wrong for the past five years by mostly avoiding pitching in the first two rounds and entirely in the first round (until this year when they picked at the bottom of the pile).
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    No, it'd need to be a controlled guy. No rentals that aren't relievers this season. If it takes more than that - and it might - then start the discussions there. But Gordon is going to close out this season as a top 50 guy (maybe a top 30 guy) provided he doesn't get injured. He's a prized commodity at 21 years old, .880 OPS in AA, with his defensive acumen.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    I don't have much faith in this market. I'm not working right now so I'm considering selling almost every penny I have in stock and paying off the house. It's a big decision but having a house paid off at 40 years old is really, really enticing. Doubly so because without a house payment, we can live off the wife's income easily with money left over every month.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    He said proven starter, not top of the rotation starter. Personally, I'd strongly consider trying to move Dozier for pitching. If that doesn't work, then I'd default to considering Gordon and one of Gonsalves/Romero for pitching.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, I get the fan frustration over the short-term but this is a loooooong game we're playing here. I won't praise or judge the new front office much until we get to the next Spring Training. At that point, they'll have one full season of evaluation, one full offseason to fix mistakes, and will be entering the first year of play with "their team" beginning to develop. Most front offices look and feel the same when evaluated over short periods of time (outside of obvious steals/blunders). They all play the same game and have similar tools. It's the teams that win deals, pick free agents, and do the little stuff 5-10% better over the long haul that emerge as the best in the business. Will Falvey and Levine be those people? I don't know and don't have enough information to say one way or the other. If they bomb this offseason, that will be a huge black mark against them.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    If you haven't listened to the GatG podcast recorded on Sunday, Gleeman specifically mentions that he talked to someone in a front office from a highly respected team and they were high on Lewis, saying that they'd probably take Greene first but if someone was down on Greene for whatever reason, Lewis was second on their board. So this didn't come completely out of nowhere.
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