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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp
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Article: Let's Stop Discounting Tommy Milone
Brock Beauchamp replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
The Twins need to make a decision with Meyer but last year, they had no good options. They couldn't even keep the guy in the AAA rotation because he was a disaster. They certainly couldn't put him in the MLB rotation. At that point, the only (crappy) option remaining is to let him try to sort things out in the bullpen. We can only hope last year was an aberration for Meyer. -
Article: Let's Stop Discounting Tommy Milone
Brock Beauchamp replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
If the Twins "ruined" Meyer, they sure did a roundabout job of it. When the team acquired Meyer, he was ranked #83 by BP. Before the 2015 season, he was ranked #14 by BP. Other lists had similar jumps, though BA stayed consistent with him (#59 in 2013, #62 in 2015). So in essence, people are arguing the Twins first helped the guy before destroying him. This argument is... highly illogical. -
Article: Let's Stop Discounting Tommy Milone
Brock Beauchamp replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
While it's a gamble to roll out a "crafty" starter for a prolonged period of time, Milone has pitched 614 innings as a starter, almost entirely in the American League. If teams don't have a solid book on the guy by now, everyone is asleep at the wheel. But I agree with your point to an extent. Milone has little to no wiggle room as a pitcher. If he loses a MPH or feel for a pitch, things won't just go bad... It'll be disastrous. He's Nick Blackburn Redux at that point. Which is part of the reason why I believe he should be traded, even if the return is modest. The other part of my reasoning was mentioned in a previous post... The Twins already have a slew of Milones in the rotation and Tommy is one of the few who might have some trade value. -
Article: Let's Stop Discounting Tommy Milone
Brock Beauchamp replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I'm no Milone fan - I'd like to see him traded - but you're really underselling the guy here. He's lining up as the fifth starter on the team: a 29 year old lefty with a career 99 ERA+ and a 4.30 FIP, 4.22 xFIP. As someone else said, if you're rolling out what looks to be a league-average guy as your fifth starter, you're probably doing okay for yourself. The Mets rolled (literally, rolled) Colon out for 30-ish starts last season and Niese for 30-ish starts. I seem to remember them playing pretty late in the season. We all love upside. I'd prefer to see May in the rotation; I think it's the smart long-term move. But you're not giving Milone the credit he deserves. He is a league average guy on the right side of 30 years old. He's not going to kill the team by taking the mound every fifth day. The problem isn't Tommy Milone (but, again, I'd try to move him), it's the rest of the rotation. Almost everybody is a Tommy Milone in this rotation, though a couple of them don't have Milone's age or handed-ness on their side. -
Article: Regression Candidates in 2016
Brock Beauchamp replied to Ted Schwerzler 's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
My first thought as well. -
I think the Twins were banking a bit too hard on Josmil Pinto figuring out his defensive issues. Obviously, that... didn't work out as planned. The Twins were rebuilding. Yeah, it would have been nice to pick up a decent catcher but when the team is winning less than 70 games a season, I'm not sure it matters. Though I question the decision to not pick up more at last year's deadline when it was obvious the Twins were a fringe contender. Picking up Jepsen was nice but a month late. Picking up Cotts was nice but two months late. Failing to address catcher just added to the deadline misery.
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To be fair, it appeared the door on the catcher market slammed shut approximately 2.3 seconds after it opened. Nobody expected Wieters to accept the QO and Pierzynski resigning with Atlanta that quickly was somewhat surprising. Without the recent Padres acquisition, the door would still be mostly closed and nobody in their right mind would have predicted SD picking up another catcher this offseason. Like or dislike the trade, a GM should not be criticized for attempting to shore up the team's biggest problem at a position of extreme scarcity early in the offseason. If he went and picked up three Blaine Boyers in early November, yeah, you absolutely tear a GM to shreds for that move... But not for picking up a catcher when the position is an organizational problem from top to bottom. There are situations where you sit back and let the market unfold before committing to a player... But that situation rarely involves catcher, especially when the catching situation was as bad as it was for the Twins.
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Sure, but it means the guy has a long way to go to become a productive MLB player. I have huge concerns about Rosario but at least he put up solid power numbers. If he makes contact, it's good contact. Eddie is also a year younger and is a very good, maybe great, defender. Again, I think Bethancourt is a good project player for a rebuilding team. That doesn't fit with what the Twins are trying to do this season and Bethancourt has to stay on the 25 man roster, as he's out of options.
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That's my biggest problem with the way things *appear* to be shaking out this offseason. I don't want to see Trevor May permanently shifted to the bullpen. I think he has the talent to be a starter. But with Meyer and Burdi in the org, I'm not against the Twins banking on one of them stepping forward at some point in 2016. IMO, they can pick up a RHRP who is only "acceptable" and hope/pray one of those guys dominates out of the gate and gets a promotion. My biggest worry is LHRP.
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Chris Parmelee and Liam Hendricks disagree that AAA success has a good chance of immediately translating to MLB success. Again, Bethancourt is an interesting reclamation project... But he's not the type of guy you rely on for anything, particularly when your starting catcher is named Kurt Suzuki. That's inviting disaster.
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*Looks at the calendar* Yep, still not even mid-December. Ryan has made two significant moves and people are complaining he's not "trying to win" because he didn't make more moves at the winter meetings. I'm as disappointed as anyone about not picking up guys at the meetings but, again, it's not even mid-December yet. There is over a month of solid activity left in this offseason. What is happening right now reminds me of people complaining about ST rosters on March 10th. "Ryan moves too early!" *December 11th rolls around* "The offseason is OVER!"
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Not fill it, just find one or two guys. That's not terribly difficult. If the Twins were shopping for 3-5 guys, yeah... That's damned near impossible. But given the plethora of relievers available at any moment and your need of just one or two of them (both don't even have to be great), that's not a particularly tall order to fill. The Twins have two guys locked into the back of the pen - Jepsen and Perkins. May might end up there. I don't like it but it might happen. That's three above average relievers. All you need at that point is one more decent righty and a decent lefty, though a shutdown lefty who can be a one-inning guy would be preferred, obviously.
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If you're trying to patch a problem on the MLB roster, there comes a time where "rehabilitation project" is not a phrase you're interested in pursuing. Listen, I'm not some huge fan of JR Murphy. I don't think his ceiling is very high... But we said similar things about Plouffe and Dozier in the past. What Murphy does bring to the table is stability and a short track record of success. Will it turn out to be a good move for the Twins? Well, I'm not sold on the move so I'm skeptical but I'm not going to blast the trade much, either. In a talent-for-talent swap, it was a pretty fair deal. Now the rest will be played out on the baseball diamond and we'll find out whether the Twins' or Yankees' scouts were smarter. But Bethancourt isn't even an option. This is 2016 and the Twins are trying to win. In 2013 or 2014, yeah, you go after a Bethancourt but you don't rely on that guy to fill your 25 man roster when your starting catcher is Kurt-friggin-Suzuki.
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Bethancourt hit AA as a 20 year old. Murphy hit AA as a 21 year old. You're talking up Bethancourt's .840 AAA OPS while downplaying Murphy's .734 MLB OPS. In essence, you're blaming Murphy for not getting demoted. As a 21 year old, Bethancourt repeated AA. Murphy played part of the season in AA. For all intents and purposes, they put up identical numbers (Bethancourt had a slight advantage in OPS, well within any kind of margin of error). You're acting like Bethancourt is some raw 20 year old and Murphy is 30 years old. Murphy is 25, Bethancourt 24.
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I'm still not entirely sold on the Hicks/Murphy trade and it surprised me how quickly Ryan moved this offseason but I can't fault the guy for locking down the most problematic position for the Twins as quickly as possible. He's getting hammered for moving too quickly at catcher - a notoriously difficult position to fill - but is also getting hammered for not moving quickly enough at reliever - the easiest position to fill. I'd feel a lot more comfortable if Ryan had already shored up the bullpen. I'd also feel a lot more comfortable if people were more consistent with their arguments.
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Bethancourt MiLB OPS: .694 Murphy MiLB OPS: .733 John HIcks MILB OPS: .734 Bethancourt MLB OPS: .527 Murphy MLB OPS: .685 I'm not saying Murphy will have a better career than Bethancourt but your schtick of railing on every single decision Ryan makes is getting old, Dave. There's a reason Bethancourt was traded for a song. He's a former decent (not great, just decent) prospect who has fallen on hard times. He's still relatively young (but so is Murphy) so there's hope he turns it around but he's a project, not an MLB player you rely on going into the season.
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Inversely, you could say SD moved too late, possibly in the same fashion Ryan may have moved too late with Plouffe. Play cute games, talk about how much you love a player, and say you're not going to trade him... Well, sometimes, you get burned as other teams take your word for it and move on to other targets.

