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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    I assume you mean Mike Redmond, who is part of the Blue Jays organization.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    Okay, enough calling Selig names. We know many of you don't like him but it's still against the rules.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    Career season? He posted a 94 ERA+, second lowest in the past six years. I actually kind of like Guthrie. Durable, good control, hard thrower despite the low K-rates, and probably somewhat underrated by his numbers since he's spent most of his career pitching in the AL East (and most of this year pitching in Colorado). But no, I don't think he'll get 10M/yr. Not in this market. I was looking at the wrong stat line. Something didn't seem right. I was wondering how that performance had escaped my notice until now... turns out I had only been looking at his 2012 stat line with the Royals, not his overall line. I need to stop drinking so much cough syrup at work.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    Bingo. I do not understand the people who howl that Bill Smith is still in the organization. It's not an intelligent approach to managing an organization. If you have a guy like Smith who, by all accounts, was a quite capable suit-and-tie type of guy, you don't can him because he was a failure as a general manager. You wash your hands of the situation by sitting him down, explaining your issues with his performance, and put him back into the position at which he excelled. It's smart management. You don't throw a guy out on his ass because you promoted him beyond his own capabilities, you blame yourself for not properly evaluating talent and make the most of a bad situation by re-inserting that person back into a role where he can perform again. It's common ****ing sense. I often wonder if half the people around here have even worked in a real business where decisions take longer than three seconds to make and you don't ****can everybody in the office the first time they screw up. That's not how anyone runs a successful organization in any field. Good people are hard to find and the Twins may stick with guys a little too long but that's certainly better than the opposite approach.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    The head trainer was let go.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    The problem is that if you trade the farm for one year of Josh Johnson, you haven't stopped the bleeding. You've simply postponed it for one season, after which you'll be worse off than you were before that point. 100% Agree with this. Do we really think the twins will be a contender next year with Josh Johnson? This team has many holes. More than likely Johnson will not give the Twins a discount just because he is from here when it comes to an extension. He will be looking for that big paycheck like most other MLB Players. Not all MLB players have loyalty like Joe Mauer. If he's willing to take a hometown discount, talk to him next November. With Morneau's salary coming off the books, the Twins will have the money for Johnson.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    I'd put Shields and Johnson pretty close in my rankings. Either one would be miles better than anything the Twins rolled out in 2012. I'm not even down on Shields. I like him as a pitcher quite a bit. I only think that if it takes significantly more to get him than Span, I'd pass. Shields has been an above average innings-eater but you can't bank on him being much more than that. I don't really buy into his 2011 season and at over $10m a year, he's not much of a steal, especially if you have to give up valuable assets to get him.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    Ah, that's fair. I've long believed that the best return on Span will be a player in the low minors. I'm not against the Twins making a run at a Johnson or Shields but if the asking price is too high, Ryan should try to move Span for prospects. It's the smart move, IMO. Trying to get a ML pitcher for Span is going to prove to be a tall order, I think. The best long-term solution for the team is to stock the farm as much as possible while also attacking the FA market.
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    I said earlier that I thought it would be five with a possible six players on some lists. I think Gibson is going to pitch himself back onto the list this fall with Berrios having an outside shot.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    Failure to get on base. Until Revere can consistently hit above .300 and OBP at .340 or better, his value is marginal. Guys who are threats on the basepaths are only useful if they can get on base. Revere did that for half a season but the other half, he failed to get on base often enough to be a legitimate MLB starter. But, as you said, he's only 24. There is room for improvement, I just don't think he'll be the player some Twins fans dream he will be. Disclaimer: I'm almost always down on burners who can't hit it in the gaps and can't take a walk. Without those attributes, I don't care how fast they are, they almost never turn out to be much better than league average.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    He might get that but I doubt it. I'd guess somewhere more in the 2/$16m range. In any case, Guthrie is a guy with a huge "STAY THE HELL AWAY" sign around his neck. 33 years old, just had a career season. Someone is going to vastly overpay for that guy and I sure hope it isn't the Twins.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    The problem is that if you trade the farm for one year of Josh Johnson, you haven't stopped the bleeding. You've simply postponed it for one season, after which you'll be worse off than you were before that point.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    I guess you failed to read where I said he's not as good as Sabathia. My comparison is to the fact that he is a workhorse, a leader and that his 6th and 7th seasons in the big leagues are where his numbers started trending up, all similar to Shields. Is it not possible that Shields is becoming a better pitcher over time as Sabathia has? He's only had one bad season in 6+ years in the league.. Even Verlander had a bad year. He's struck out 450 guys in the last 2 years and has one of if not the best change ups in the league. He is much much better than "just a little better than AL average". My point is that Sabathia started getting better as he aged into his mid to late 20s. That's a typical player progression. Shields is "improving" (even though he has actually regressed this season) as he enters his 30s. That leads me to believe that 2011 was the aberration, not an actual improvement. Again, he's a good pitcher. He's not a great one like Sabathia, who combines being both a workhorse and a 120 ERA+ pitcher. Verlander had his "bad" season (which was still quite a bit better than Shield's much worse "bad" season) at age 25. Shields bottomed out in his age 28 season. Shields overperformed his xFIP by a large margin in 2011 and is slightly underperforming it this season. Reality is probably somewhere between those two seasons. A very good pitcher, not a great one and a pitcher that won't drastically overperform his roughly $11m salary over the next two years.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    Shields and Sabathia aren't even close to the same player. Sabathia is one year older yet has pitched 1100 more innings. Sabathia also has a career ERA+ of 122 to Shields' 107. Outside of being stupid-reliable, there just isn't much about Shields to rave about. Yes, he's a good pitcher. Yes, he's reliable. But outside of 2011 and 2008, he's been just a little better than the AL average. He's also going into his age 31 season and will be paid over $20m in the next two years. That's not a guy you loot the farm to pick up. You can spend that same $20m to go get a guy like Edwin Jackson (plus another $10-12m for a third year) without giving up anyone and Jackson is two years younger than Shields.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    If ownership has even the smallest amount of foresight, they'll realize that nothing kills attendance faster than 90 loss teams. That doesn't mean the Pohlads won't slash payroll but it does mean that it would be the stupidest thing they could do in this situation. They spent ten years building up fan goodwill and building attendance slowly over that time period and to crush that in two years by slashing payroll and churning out bad baseball teams would be absolutely idiotic.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    The Chicken Littles are silenced for five minutes until they find a new topic to rant about and the rest of us go on with our lives. That's what happens.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    Agreed. I think his value is almost nothing at this point. If he had continued with a .300+ avg and .340 OBP, his value would be quite a bit higher but he tailed off significantly at the end of the season (as some of us predicted he would).
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    Here's the thing: his ability to stay healthy is what MAKES Shields a borderline No. 1. The guy hasn't missed a start in six years. Teams value that kind of reliability very highly. You may be right that he's not likely to be an upper-echelon ace in terms of production (though over the last two years he basically has been) but I suspect he's exactly what the Twins are looking for in a guy who could lead their unstable rotation. He was an upper echelon guy in 2011. This season, he's a decent pitcher, nothing more. In 2010, he was pretty bad. The only years he's been way above average are 2008 and 2011. His durability is certainly an asset and I noted that in an earlier post but if we're talking about pure production, he's not an ace and the Twins shouldn't be considering giving up too many assets to get the guy. If the Rays are willing to talk reasonably about a trade, I'm all for it but the Span+Parmelee+Prospect is too much for a guy who probably won't pitch much better than his $11m contract pays him. If the Twins are going to pay a guy $11m a year for two years, why shouldn't they simply go get an Edwin Jackson for that kind of money and keep Span & Co? It's a bad baseball decision to give up that much for a guy who is paid that much when there are similar FA options out there for the same kind of money.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    My point with the Baker comp is not to compare 2012 Baker versus 2012 Shields. It's to compare how both pitchers have actually performed over the course of their careers. People seem to take the attitude that Shields is a number one pitcher but often say Baker is nothing more than a number three. Reality doesn't jibe with that evaluation. Both pitchers (when healthy) are nearly identical. And they both have ceilings somewhere in the "very good number two pitcher" range with the average year coming in at "decent number two pitcher". Off the top of my head, I'd take Scherzer before Shields, no question.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    That's just it... He's not better than Baker. Look at their ERA+, WHIP, BB/9, K/9, etc. They're basically the same pitcher with a little variance here and there. Shields is healthier. That's the difference. It's a pretty big difference but that's why Baker is going to get ~$3m this season while Shields is going to get over $20m over the next two. Like I said, the Rays would get three years of Span for the same money as two years of Shields. both have an option for their last season. Is Shields so much more valuable than Span that he's worth significantly more than that three-for-two-years swap? I don't think so and the numbers agree with me.
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    I am fairly certain Span and Parmelee would not net you James Shields. It would take more than that. I will never understand why people are so bloody high on Shields. Look at his numbers. He's a healthier version of Scott Baker that is owed ~$23m over the next two years. Outside of 2011, he's just not that great. Why do people act as if he's the second coming? The Rays would get three years of a younger player in Span for the same price as two years of Shields. Why would it take so much more than Span (whose WAR is higher, though position vs. pitcher WAR is specious at best) to lure Shields away from the Rays? It seems to me as if Shields has a "Greinke Halo" around him. People remember one great season and fail to look more closely to see that those years were aberrations, not the norm. The guy is running largely on a name, not actual performance.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    It's going to take more than Span to get Shields. It shouldn't take much more and if it does, pass. Tampa Bay would get three years of Span for approximately the same money that the Twins would get Shields for two years. Outside of a great 2011, Shields is not an "ace" by any stretch of the imagination. He's good but not great. I don't know why forum posters are so high on the guy... He's basically a healthy Scott Baker that strikes out half a guy more every nine innings.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    If he's open to an extension, I'd be far more open to the acquisition. I completely forgot that he's a Minnesota native.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    I'd push hard for a Shields for Span swap before going after Johnson. Given the current state of the Twins, I'm not crazy about the idea of giving up a prospect for one year of a starter.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    That is flat-out untrue. Both players OPSed over 1.000 in AAA. They're not superstars in the making by any stretch of the imagination but to say they wouldn't make the bigs in another org is just ridiculous. If you OPS over 1.000 in AAA, you make the bigs. It's that bloody simple.
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