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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    It matters when you can pull a RFer off the scrapheap and expect a .700 OPS versus a .600 OPS for a scrapheap CFer. This is why Joe Mauer>John Olerud.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    Has anyone claimed a smaller ballpark will help his offensive game? Personally, I think it's mostly irrelevant... Revere puts the ball on the ground a lot. And again, defensive metrics using less than a full season of data (preferably even more than that) can produce misleading information. It doesn't matter which metric you use, it's a bad idea.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    I was waiting for you to chime in, you snarky old coot.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    Still a small sample size but getting better... Since this conversation started about WAR, you have to factor in how much better Revere's bat looks in center than right. There are a ton of variables here and focusing on one is not going to give a solid view of the player as a whole.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    And, again, I mentioned that using WAR in this situation was not ideal in one of my first posts...
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    In one of my first posts, I referred to using WAR in this situation as "not ideal" but at least WAR factors in offensive contribution. The ballpark might not help much but I think it will help him as a CFer... every MLB ballpark has player zones that are virtually unreachable. Citizen's Bank has fewer "unreachable" player zones than Target Field due to its size. There won't be many balls that Revere can't chase down in that ballpark. If Revere was in RF (where there are fewer "unreachable" zones), I might feel differently about it. And then there's the Phillies pitching staff.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    This. UZR/150 takes a defensive metric, which are pretty random at anything less than a full season (and are best used for multiple seasons) and extrapolates that sketchy data over a larger period of time, magnifying the incomplete data results. It's a pretty bad metric, IMO.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    Still not even a full season. And the dude is still just 25 years old. And he's gone from playing in a ballpark the size of Jupiter behind an awful pitching staff to playing in a bandbox behind a good staff. I'm not saying it's impossible for his WAR to drop with the Phillies. It absolutely can... I just think it's unlikely given the rest of the elements surrounding him as a player (ballpark, league, pitching staff, improvement toward his prime).
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    A shaky metric to use for a single season, much less 300 innings of a season.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    Oh, come on... That's kinda lazy, Puck. His OPS+ in 2011 was 72. In 2012, it was 89.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    You did. There are valid comparisons in how the two are received, as opposing viewpoints are often nothing more than a plugging of the ears and yelling "LALALALALALALA" over the speaker. It has little to do with the theory/metric themselves, more how they're "refuted" (basically, without logic-based debate of the information). Of course, this does not apply to everyone. There are weaknesses that can be debated about both but that's generally not what happens. An example of this is USAChief, who has huge issues with WAR but instead of just saying "that's BS", he actually gets into the nitty-gritty of why he thinks it's BS. I may not agree with him but he's definitely putting thought into his reasoning why it's a bad metric.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    It's possible but I don't see his WAR dropping as a CF. He's still well above average defensively and his bat won't be such a drag on his WAR in CF. Plus, he's young enough to keep improving for another year or two.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    I don't know... With the move to the NL and positioned as a full-time centerfielder, I think Revere could post several 2-3 WAR seasons before tapering off (he posted a 2.6 WAR primarily in RF last season). It won't take many of those seasons to match Pierre's career WAR. Not an ideal way to compare career arcs but unless Ben gets injured and loses a step before he turns 30, I think he'll do just fine for the Phillies.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    Hey, I like Laffy Taffy. Terry Tiffee, not so much.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    Eh, I don't know. His offense may be limited compared to Pierre (which is a pretty ugly thing to say) but his defense is definitely superior to Juan. Pierre had three seasons of 3+ WAR ball early in his career but then didn't have a WAR over 1 for several more. Overall, there isn't much to write home about.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    Fantastic article, Parker.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    I think most people would agree with that if the AVG was guaranteed. But, as we know, AVG fluctuates and has a tendency to drop off before many other skills (such as BB%) unless you're a Joe Mauer or Paul Molitor (and that has a lot to do with their BB%, as it shows they maintain that AVG through bat control and discipline, not outright speed). Which is why Revere has value now but as he enters into his late 20s, he could turn into Juan Pierre (or worse) as he loses a step.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    Who will replace them? It's a legitimate question. In a year where the Twins are obviously kicking the can down the road, what point is there to replacing Plouffe and/or Parmelee with another player, excepting Oswaldo Arcia?
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    What's the rush? And learning how to field doesn't have much to do with the ballpark. I'm sure the majority of the things they're learning is from reps and coaching pre-game, not what happens during actual play (where they'll only get 5-6 opportunities a night to flash the glove). And Berrios should be nowhere near AA. He shouldn't even be in high A at this point. The kid has pitched all of 30 innings. Let's be reasonable here. The low minors aren't only about the competition. It's also about the shortened seasons, fewer games per week, and ability to take these kids aside and teach them how to play the game.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    But in some cases, it won't be their first year in the bigs. Most of those guys should see ML time in 2013. Anyway, hard to predict such things. So questions in 2013 about how Plouffe and Parmelee and Hicks do, much less how the team will perform in 2014...
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    It was a perfect game, not a no-hitter. Chances are the manager would have to cram Darvish into a locker with armed guards to keep him out of that game.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    A bridge year but probably a better year. Gibson should be partway through his second season and Meyer may be in the starting rotation after a September call-up. Hicks will also be in his second season (and Arcia will probably have ML at-bats by the end of the 2013 season). I wouldn't expect to see a world-beater in 2014 but if this team isn't thinking about a low-80s win total, I'd consider that a pretty big disappointment.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    Well, the Twins are sending their slump-buster out to the mound today.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    Lineups: Tigers: Austin Jackson CF Torii Hunter RF Miguel Cabrera 3B Prince Fielder 1B Victor Martinez DH Andy Dirks LF Jhonny Peralta SS Alex Avila C Omar Infante 2B (Anibal Sanchez P) Twins: Aaron Hicks CF Joe Mauer C Josh Willingham LF Justin Morneau 1B Ryan Doumit DH Trevor Plouffe 3B Chris Parmelee RF Brian Dozier 2B Pedro Florimon SS (Kevin Correia P)
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    I don't get this argument. It doesn't matter if one run is added or fifty. If the team is better by even the smallest margin and there are no significant downsides, you make the move. It's that bloody simple.
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