TD Top Prospects: #7 Jorge Polanco

I expect Polanco to be the first guy called up if an infielder is injured. With Santana and Arcia both likely to make the roster, Polanco might be the first position player called up regardless.

Maybe 2018-2020. Maybe.

 

But what you're arguing right now is that a guy whose MiLB career OPS is .752 will  perform better than a guy whose 2015 MLB OPS was .751.

 

That's... Unlikely, to be generous. Outlandish, to be more realistic.

What I'm arguing is that his performance over the next 5-years will indeed be superior.  In 2016 there would assuredly be a drop-off in production if OPS is the determining factor.  Polanco is unlikely to ever match Dozier's HR ability, but how many 2Bmen have?  Interestingly, both are listed on the roster @ 5'11" & 200-lbs.  Dozier's career MiLB OPS is .779 compared to Polanco's .752.  Every Dozier MiLB AB occurred after his 22nd birthday.  Polanco has had roughly 200 split between AA & AAA since he turned 22.  Isn't it fair to assume his extra-base power is likely to improve as he matures?

I've seen Polanco play dozen's of times between his stint in Cedar Rapids (his best MiLB season) and last year on MiLB.com.  He has consistently exhibited an ability to make contact, hit behind runners & use all fields at the plate.  These factors alone make him a better fit for me in the #2-hole right now between Buxton, Mauer, Sano and Park than Dozier's dead pull hit or miss approach.

Maybe Dozier can play 3B.  He profiles better at the 6-7 spots in the order.  I wouldn't have a problem with Polanco spending the bulk of 2016 in AAA, but trading or relegating him to a utility role once he's out of options in favor of Dozier or Plouffe would be a mistake.  With Vielma and Gordon nipping at his heel's, I think 2B is his obvious destination.

I don't necessarily disagree but I think making the decision today is a mistake.

 

Give Polanco another year, let Dozier help the 2016 Twins win ballgames, and then reevaluate next November. There's no reason to force a decision today, as it will significantly hurt the current MLB squad and its ability to compete in 2016.

Your right, of course.  My big fear is that if we wait too long, Dozier & Plouffe will have about as much value as Dan Uggla & David Freese do right now. 

I don't follow other teams farm systems nearly as closely as I do the Twins, so my question is do other teams have the layers upon layers of prospect depth the Twins do at important positions like Shortstop, 1st base and outfield?

Including Escobar they have 4 Shortstops that could be Major League ready in 1-3 years and depending on who you ask around here, all have a chance to be above average.

In the Outfield they have 6 or 7 guys that are competing for a spot in the next year.

And then if you mix in 1st/DH type guys they have another 4 guys including the current major leaguers who could be ready this year to be contributors.

Maybe it's this way across the league and we just put too much value on each of these players since we are closer to them by following them from day one, but it seems the Twins may be coming to a crossroads in in the next 15 months on who is going to be part of the future and who is merely an asset.

And if they help the Twins contend in 2016 and 2017, that's just fine.

 

Contending teams shouldn't think too hard about what a player might bring in trade and whether he's "devaluing" in trade value if he's actually contributing on the field.

 

It's one of my pet peeves on sports forums. Sometimes, the smart move is to worry solely about the on-field product and not think about possible trade value. It's why I'm okay with the Twins letting Plouffe walk after the 2017 season if that's the smart play (ie. he's worth his yearly salary in production and helps the Twins win baseball games).

I think the problem is the Twins haven't contended in 5 years, so over that time getting value out of guys was the way to make the team contenders by accumulating my young prospects.  I find myself thinking the same thing as well instead of just enjoying the production on the field.  I think/hope we are coming to an end of worrying too much about this and soon will have a very young team that is competing for championships with a core that will be stick together for a long time.

I've been saying they were going to run into this problem for years now (most particularly with OF/1B/DH's, middle infielders are good to have some depth). Unfortunately, to my observations, they're limiting the value these players could have in trades or to the Twins themselves by sitting on their hands and doing nothing with all of them.

Can you provide the names of the players you are referring to? TR would say these things have a way of working themselves out. My observation is the board overrates our prospects and have little understanding of normal turnover/wastage if you will.

How much trade value do you think that group has? Do you think you could get Kyle Gibson for that group?

 

Personally, I think Plouffe has very little trade value (the salary for the 4th year of arbitration is basically the value of a free agent). Walker/Arcia would get you a C-level prospect. Polanco's trade value would be depressed because of questions about his ability to play SS. And I like Stewart as a prospect but, as can be seen on his TD prospect page, he has enough warts that his trade value is at its lowest.

 

I would rather keep them all and take my chances that "things have a way of working themselves out".

Many of the trades thrown out on this site are like fantasy football trades. 

Take two guys who are not quite good enough for a roster and hold little to no value (like Arcia).  Before dropping them, group him together with another guy you are going to drop and propose a trade.

Nobody in my league will accept my offers like that anymore.

The trade chips that are actually in demand are Berrios, Polanco, Kepler, and May. If we trade any of those, the TD meltdown on moving Sano to RF will seem like an intelligent conversation.