If You’re Ready to Believe in Willi Castro (and You Should), Everything Changes

We know we should be paying more attention to Willi Castro. For the last year and a half, he has consistently been one of the most valuable Twins players, whether you’re measuring by new-school (WAR, WPA) or old-school (at-bats, defensive flexibility) metrics. But the fact that he’s been in a utility role and that this breakthrough performance was (mostly) unexpected means he tends to be overlooked, even when we don’t mean to.

That may be ending, at least for 2024. With Edouard Julien in Triple-A and Brooks Lee’s season getting a late start due to a herniated disc, we know where we’ll find Castro for the foreseeable future: playing second base. Maybe more importantly, we’re also now finding him and his .350 OBP in the lineup’s leadoff spot. 

So, for the next few weeks, the Twins will have a defensively proficient second baseman and leadoff hitter who has posted 113 OPS+ over the last two years. He also leads the Twins in games played over that span. He is also 27 years old. 

That doesn’t sound like a utility player. It sounds like a regular, and maybe even one a team builds around. If you—and the Twins—are ready to see Castro as an everyday starter, several twists regarding the Twins’ future lineup emerge.

Castro Has Leapfrogged Four Prospects
If Castro secures the leadoff spot, regardless of the position he plays, he’ll need to stay in the lineup. That means the Twins have four highly-regarded (or formerly highly-regarded) prospects in St. Paul who are all competing for one spot this year. Matt Wallner, Alex Kirilloff, Julien, and Lee are all competing for a semi-open spot in either left field or at second base. Castro can take whichever spot is left over, but he won’t be replaced or lose at-bats when he does so. His switch-hitting bat at the top of the lineup is the priority.

Will the Twins Leave Good Enough Alone?
Baseball teams and players don’t like to mess with something that is working. So, if Willi Castro continues to thrive while playing a solid second base, especially while hitting leadoff, how tempted will the Twins be to leave him there?

That could be especially true if Wallner finds his way back to a corner outfield spot and recreates last year’s success. Or, if Austin Martin shows the capability to hold down a corner outfield spot on a regular basis. Once the left field corner spot is secured, where will the Twins’ leadoff hitter play, if not at second base?

Where Does This Leave Julien and Lee?
The Twins clearly believe in Edouard Julien and Brooks Lee, and for good reason. But in the near term, do they rank higher than Castro? Does that near-term thinking end after the 2024 season, or does it extend to the 2025 season? Or beyond?

While we’re on a roll with question marks, let’s see how many more we can stuff into this section. Given the glut of prospects fighting for a single spot on the roster, at what point do the Twins start to view some of that depth as redundant? Or, if "redundant" is too strong a word, when does it at least allow them to loosen their grip a bit during trade deadline talks? Do the Twins believe enough in Castro to consider trading away some of their top infield prospects? 

(Do you?)

Those questions also become a little more complicated when looking forward to the 2025 season. Additional lineup spots will be open next year, when Max Kepler and Carlos Santana are likely no longer on the team. Plus, there could be another open spot in 2026, because Castro will become a free agent after the 2025 season. Which raises perhaps the biggest question… 

Does a Contract Extension Make Sense for Either Side?
This year, the Twins will have their final chance to offer Castro arbitration, where we can estimate he’ll make roughly $5-7 million. That’s a fair amount of money for a utility infielder, but a bargain for a second baseman hitting atop the batting order. The Twins should be very interested in signing that player to an extension that pays him through the balance of his prime years.

Especially because those prime years are right now and in the near future, not in the past. Castro is only 27, which is great news for the Twins but even better news for Castro, as he’ll hit the free market as a 28-year-old, providing a golden opportunity to sign a multi-year deal.

It’s hard enough to get a contract extension done with a player a year before free agency. Given his age and breakthrough success, Castro would likely be advised to drive a hard bargain, rather than miss his shot at hitting the open market. On the other hand, he may have the same perception problem with the rest of the league with which we’re wrestling: he’s “only” a utility player. Given his journey so far, four years of guaranteed money might be appealing. 

Whether or not this is a possibility is a major factor in most of the questions above. If Castro is determined to be a free agent at the end of 2025, his future value is limited, compared to the various prospects in question. In addition, keeping Castro in his utility role and slotting the prospects for a full-time position makes a lot more sense. One key input into the decision to prioritize Castro over some of the above (or not) is the extent to which they view him as keepable beyond 2025, and projectable over the first few years of that span.

How Far Should the Twins Go?
It’s one thing to say “we all should be paying more attention to Willi Castro.” It’s another to unpack what that means, and to adjust one’s thinking about where he fits into the Twins’ future lineup. Committing to that future with a contract extension or trading away a prized prospect is a big step farther down the path.

But Castro has earned that consideration. Perhaps our expectations and the traditional “utility infielder” label are blinding us to his value. The Twins (and Twins fans, and Twins Daily) pride themselves on recognizing market inefficiencies in MLB and taking advantage of them. It's not a coincidence that Castro is about to set a new benchmark for positional flexibility within a season, previously approached only by two other Twins super-utility guys. It looks like the Twins have a doozy of a blind spot within their own organization, and need to explore pivoting accordingly.

How far would you go?