What If The Twins Drafted Mark Prior?

The argument I will advance is that the Twins would have been better off passing on Mauer to draft Mark Prior first overall in the 2001 amateur draft. This argument is built upon two main ideas: First, that winning the World Series should be the ultimate goal for a major league franchise and second, that drafting Prior over Mauer would have maximized the Twins chances of winning a third World Series over the period of time from the 2001 amateur draft to the present day.

With regard to the first idea, it is said that flags fly forever and thus, it is in a club’s best interest to maximize its odds of winning a World Series over any given period of time by mortgaging either the present or future if needed, dependent upon how close a club is to championship caliber at any given time. As former Twins general manager Andy MacPhail—who presided over the club when it won its two championships in 1987 and 1991—has been credited with saying, there is no point in chasing third place. This is presented as a given for the purpose of this article.

What then follows is an attempt to support the second idea. To spell things out plainly before proceeding any further, the argument being made is not that Prior was, is or will be regarded as a better player than Mauer. Only that drafting Prior over Mauer would have improved Minnesota’s chances of winning a third World Series between the years of 2001 to 2014.

2002 and 2003

Perhaps the lone irrefutable point in favor of drafting Prior over Mauer improving the Twins’ chances of winning a third World Series is the impact it would have had on the 2002 and 2003 seasons. Prior entered the 2001 amateur draft during his junior season at the University of Southern California. He was considered the most major league-ready prospect in his draft class and won the Golden Spikes Award—college baseball’s equivalent of the Heisman Trophy. Conversely, Mauer—the top-rated high school prospect in the country—took longer to reach the major leagues. As Prior debuted during the 2002 season and Mauer did not play in his first major league game until 2004, it cannot be reasonably argued that drafting Prior would not have made the Twins a better team in 2002 and 2003.

Fairness requires mention that Prior cost the Cubs over twice as much to sign as Mauer did the Twins—$10.5 versus $5.15 million—but when placed in context with the total amount of money the Twins have committed to Mauer since the 2001 draft—$126.025 million with another $92 million owed over the next four seasons—that initial $5.35 million difference is rather negligible. Also, Prior would have occupied a roster spot, so that $5.35M can be weighed against the salary of any player Prior would have kept off the Twins’ payroll in the aforementioned two seasons.

In 2002 the Twins began the season with Rick Reed, Kyle Lohse, Eric Milton, Brad Radke and Joe Mays in their rotation with Santana joining from the bullpen later, so Prior would likely not have had a subtractive effect on the Twins payroll if he had debuted midseason. However, it is doubtful the Twins would have signed Kenny Rodgers for $2 million before the start of the 2003 campaign with Prior already on their major league roster, which reduces Prior’s theoretical net cost a small amount.

What is particularly important about the 2002 and 2003 seasons is that Minnesota reached the playoffs in both without either Mauer or Prior on their roster, so the addition of Prior would have further strengthened the Twins’ chances those two years. Using ERA+ as a rough guide to place Prior’s performance in context as ERA+ attempts to control for league and ballpark, here is how Prior compared to the rest of the Twins’ rotation those two seasons.

http://i.imgur.com/WBLb56j.png

While each made only a half-season’s worth of starts, K/9, FIP and ERA+ make it clear that Santana and Prior were on a different level than the rest of the Twins’ rotation in 2002.

http://i.imgur.com/KCgpCgy.png

Note: Eric Milton’s injury-shortened season is presented at the bottom of the table due to a 17 inning sample size.

In 2003 Prior elevated himself above even Santana, achieving a lower ERA and FIP along with a higher K/9 and ERA+ despite pitching more innings without the benefit of bullpen work positively skewing his rate statistics. Consulting Fangraphs, Prior was second only to Pedro Martinez among major league starters with 7.5 wins above replacement. Kenny Rodgers, who presumably would not have been signed had the Twins drafted Prior, was worth 3.1 wins above replacement.

Moving beyond regular season statistics, there is research that suggests adding a second pitcher who struck out more than a batter per inning would have improved the Twins’ chances of winning in the postseason, specifically. Baseball Prospectus found (and published in its 2006 book Baseball Between the Numbers) that closer performance, strike out rate and defensive efficiency were three key measures that correlated with success in the playoffs.

This is fairly intuitive with respect to starting pitchers; playoff teams in any given season typically have above average lineups as compared to the major leagues as a whole, so the ability to miss bats has value in that it prevents batters from above average lineups from putting the ball in play. In 2002 and 2003, both Prior and Santana had K/9 rates of 9.6 or higher while no other Twins starting pitcher managed better than a 6.4 in either season.

Buying a cautioned, qualified ticket to small sample-size theater, here is a quick look at how the aforementioned starters performed in the postseason for the relevant pair of years.

http://i.imgur.com/BIHqO6Q.png

Note: Santana was squandered by manager Ron Gardenhire during the 2002 postseason and pitched out of the bullpen, hence only two starts in eight appearances.

Once again Prior’s performance compares favorably with the Twins’ starters. Prior’s statistics above come only from the 2003 season. Had Alex Gonzalez been able to

The Twins posted a combined 5-9 postseason record in 2002 and 2003 and won their only postseason series of the Gardenhire era—the 2002 divisional series against Oakland. In the years since, with Mauer on its major league roster, Minnesota has won just one of 13 games in the postseason. Thus, the strongest and least speculative point in favor of drafting Prior over Mauer is that it would have strengthened the Twins’ chances of winning a World Series over the two-year period in which they won more postseason games than in the following 11 years combined.

The Increasingly Speculative 2004 and Beyond

It is possible that had he been drafted by the Twins, Mark Prior may have avoided the injury woes that derailed his career, as the Twins were relatively conservative with pitch counts under Ron Gardenhire’s stewardship.

Conversely, Dusty Baker—Prior’s manager in Chicago—earned a reputation for working his starting pitchers quite heavily. In the 2003 season the Cubs led baseball with 29 instances where their starting pitcher threw 120 pitches or more, of which Prior accounted for seven in what was his first full year in the major leagues. It is impossible to accurately quantify the effect those high pitch counts had. However fairly or unfairly, Baker is commonly assigned some blame for the injuries sustained by charges like Jason Schmidt, Mark Prior and Kerry Wood among others. It bears mention that Baker eased the workload of his starting pitchers as his career went on and fell below the league average for the number of 120-plus pitch starts per season during his tenure with the Cincinnati Reds.

It is within the realm of possibility, had his workload been better managed by a more conservative brass in Minnesota, that Prior would have had a longer and more productive career, helping the Twins in an alternate reality in 2004 and beyond.

Another highly speculative argument in favor of drafting Prior would be that the Twins would have either cut bait with him after his injury woes, or been more open to trading a healthy Prior as opposed to paying market rate on a contract extension for a front-line starting pitcher nearing free agency—as the club did when it sent Johan Santana to the Mets in his final season before hitting the open market.

The Twins were painted into a corner by the timing of the opening of Target Field and Joe Mauer’s impending free agency. The club wanted taxpayers to pick up a majority of the tab for their new $545 million ballpark, and argued that the revenue that would be generated by such a facility was essential to remain competitive in baseball’s modern environment.

Had they then turned around and dealt the face of their franchise, recent American League Most Valuable Player and—perhaps most important—native son Joe Mauer, to avoid signing him to a large contract extension, the public relations hit would have been colossal. Perhaps it would have been easier to flip Prior for prospects—if he was still performing and on the roster—as was the case with Santana. Had that happened, the Twins would have been able to differently allocate $23 million worth of payroll per season from 2011-to-2018.

Where the Twins would have suffered in this alternate reality is in missing out on fleecing Giants general manager Brian Sabean. Had the Twins drafted Prior, they would not have needed to deal A.J. Pierzynski to make room for Mauer in the starting lineup. In turn, they would not have acquired Boof Bonser, Francisco Liriano or Joe Nathan prior to the start of the 2004 season. Bonser was no great shakes and later begat minor leaguer Chirs Province who failed to reach the major leagues. Lirano pitched brilliantly at times and later begat Eduardo Escobar and Pedro Hernandez. Joe Nathan was the best closer not named Mariano Rivera in baseball in the aughts, became the Twins’ all-time saves leader and left as a free agent after eight years.

The above almost certainly represents more value than retaining Pierzynski would have provided. Thus—in addition to not having Mauer around for his spectacular peak years—the Twins would have almost surely been worse off from 2004 to 2009. Having conceded that, the Twins did not win a single playoff series during that time, so it would not have reduced the number of championships the club won.

Conclusion

Based on the benefit of hindsight unavailable to anyone during the Twins’ preparation for the 2001 amateur draft and large amounts of speculation, I hope I have at least swayed a few people into entertaining the idea that it would have been in the Twins’ best interests to draft Mark Prior first overall in 2001, despite the disappointing way his career stalled and ended. In essence—knowing everything we do now—it would have been better for the Twins to bet all their chips on 2002 and 2003. To roll the dice that nobody in baseball would have wanted to face the 2002 and 2003 versions of Johan Santana and Mark Prior a combined four times in a seven-game playoff series. That either the 2002 or 2003 Twins could have been the American League version of the 2001 Arizona Diamondbacks.

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