The Twins Face a Deceivingly Complicated Decision at the Trade Deadline

Not so long ago, it appeared as though the Twins might be able to get by with a couple of bullpen pickups at the trade deadline. Not that doing so was going to make them World Series favorites or anything, but when the offense was clicking and supported by a consistently solid rotation? The front office might have believed – or at least publicly advanced – that a few relief upgrades would sufficiently help them secure the division and present a credible postseason threat.

Much has changed in a few weeks' time.

With the rotation nosediving into the break, and their lineup now missing a key piece in Ryan Jeffers, the Twins have seen their list of needs grow as the deadline approaches. At this point, to position themselves as true contenders, it feels like they need to add a frontline starter for sure, and they could really use a catcher. Meanwhile those pesky bullpen needs have not gone away. Far from it.

That makes for a hefty shopping list. To fulfill all of these needs at high-demand positions in a seller's market will be very costly. Facing this harsh reality, the front office is going to have to ask itself: 

Is it worth it?

Acquiring the kind of impact talent needed to put this team in a strong position will mean making painful sacrifices. If they really want to push, the Twins will need to part with a quantity of high-caliber prospect talent and maybe even established young players like José Miranda, Trevor Larnach, or Alex Kirilloff. 

There's also a strong case to be made that big, splashy deadline moves aren't as impactful as many perceive – not to mention the frequency of costly backfires. (Imagine if the Twins traded Byron Buxton for Noah Syndergaard at the 2019 deadline.) Atlanta's 2021 exemplifies how a more conservative, low-wattage approach to addressing various needs can work. 

Of course, such thinking won't do much to satiate fans who are hungry for decisive and definitive action. And maybe that's the right attitude. Even if Derek Falvey and Thad Levine always seemed to be setting their gaze more on 2023 and beyond with the latest offseason strategy, they can't take for granted where they're at right now.

They can't take for granted they'll have Buxton and Luis Arraez both healthy and playing at an All-Star level next year. They can't take for granted they'll have anything approximating the force that is Carlos Correa on their roster. 

They can't take for granted they'll be in first place at the break, with a chance to act as a buyer and aspiring champ, because we saw just last year how the best laid plans can go awry.

Logical as they are, this front office understands that once you get to the playoffs, anything can happen. (Yes, even for the Twins.) They know that these opportunities don't present themselves every year. And they didn't throw $35 million at Correa for no reason. 

All of which leads me to believe the Twins will assuredly be active at the trade deadline. They are going to make multiple moves. As to how bold and audacious those additions will be? That's the big question, and we'll find out soon enough. 

With the deadline now less than two weeks away, we'll be covering every rumor worth sharing here at Twins Daily. And starting today, we're rolling out special trade deadline preview content for those who contribute to the caretaker fund at any tier. Each of the next six weekdays we'll be sending out "Division Dossiers" with breakdowns of buyers and sellers, as well as trade targets who might appeal to the Twins from each team. This is the top-secret intel you need to be ready for anything during Deadline SZN.

Check out a preview snippet below, and if you haven't already, sign up as a caretaker now to get the full dossier plus five more in the week ahead.