Twins Offense Will Go as Far as Kepler and Polanco Take Them

Over the last month or so, the Twins have noticeably been a different team than the one we saw for the first couple months and a lot of that boils down to offensive struggles. From the Red Sox series (June 17th) up until the ending of the Oakland series (July 21st), the Twins offense ranked 13th in AVG, 15th in OBP and 15th in SLG. The drop off was so noticeable because from the start of the season to June 17th, the Twins were 1st in AVG, SLG, OPS, ISO, wRC+, wOBA and fourth in OBP. Everyone knew there would be some regression but it all seemed to hit at the same time and it wasn't kind.

The Twins just ended a disheartening 11-13 stretch where the pitching stayed relatively consistent. The team ERA, WHIP, and xFIP all got better while the K/9 and FIP dropped just a bit, but it is clear the offense was the problem (and the defense of course).

During the stretch where the offense regressed, the Twins went 11-13 while two key members atop the lineup seemingly disappeared for a while. Those two players were Jorge Polanco and Max Kepler and they were both considered All Star players in the first half (at least by Twins fans). For perspective on the next paragraphs, Kepler had a line of .272/.356/.553 (.908) and Polanco was at .333/.394/.555 (.949) before the regression came.

In the offseason when both Jorge Polanco and Max Kepler were signed to long term deals to stay with the Twins, it was obvious the front office saw a lot of potential in both of them but I don't think anyone predicted them to be this good in year one of the new deals. They have consistently held down the top two lineup spots for most of the season and it looks like they will both stay there for a deep playoff run led by this potent offense. With that said, everyone hits a rough patch once in a while and when these two hitters struggle, it has a huge impact.

You could easily make the argument that Kepler and Polanco are the two most important hitters for this team when they are going good. In games that Kepler has at least one hit, the Twins are 44-17 which is a 117 win pace opposed to a 12-18 record when he does not have a hit which only would be a 65 win-pace.

The same goes for Jorge Polanco. When he has at least one hit in a game, the Twins have a 48-24 record which is a 108 win pace. Just like Kepler, when Polanco has zero hits in a game the Twins own a 10-12 record for a 73 win pace. The Twins are as good as these two hitters take them.

During this recent 11-13 stretch, it has been obvious how much they both mean to the offense because their regression was during the exact same time as the whole offense regressing. Polanco had a .645 OPS with just a 67 wRC+ while Kepler had a .703 OPS with a 78 wRC+.

A lot of the bad results came as a result of taking less walks and striking out more. Kepler went from 15.1% strikeouts and 11.3% walks to striking out 20.6% of the time and walking a mere 3.7% of appearances. The same trend occurred with Polanco, as he went from striking out 14.3% of the time and walking at 9.1% to striking out 17.4% and walking in just 4.3% of plate appearances.

Of course every single player in baseball will go on at least one extended streak every season where things just don't go their way, but this post is an attempt to show just how important their success is to this Twins lineup. When Kepler and Polanco produce with hits, the Twins win. When they don't, the Twins lose. Its a simple process.

One very interesting statistic that shows just how much they help the team when they succeed versus how much it affects the team when they struggle are their win probability added rankings on the team. Kepler and Polanco lead the team in +WPA respectively with a 8.51 for Kepler and a 7.93 for Polanco. When they succeed, the Twins win. Oddly they also have the two worst -WPA numbers on the team with Polanco at -7.39 and Kepler at -6.73. Again, when these two aren't doing well, the Twins lose.

Not surprisingly, the Twins have gone 3-2 over their last five games and guess who has led the charge? Jorge Polanco and his 1.111 OPS along with Max Kepler and his 1.058 OPS. These two hitters basically control how the Twins will do and it is looking like they will be near the top of this Twins lineup for years to come.