Twins Draft Preview: Aiken & Allard

Who are these guys?

The Saga of Brady Aiken is too long to spell out in these bios - and many of you know it already. Aiken attempted to kick off his 2015 season pitching for IMG Academy of March 19. Aiken, a lefty, was supposed to throw 40 pitches that day, facing a national team from Canada, in what was one of the most anticipated starts all spring. He threw 12.

A week later, AIken announced online that he had undergone Tommy John surgery.

Another lefty, Kolby Allard, was considered the top prep arm in the draft by many experts. A summer on the circuit demonstrating a mid-90s fastball and a plus breaking ball will do that. Of course, this spring Allard was diagnosed with a “stress reaction” in his back and would miss up to two months.

Well, those two months have passed and six-foot Allard still isn’t throwing off of a mound.

Why the Twins would pick them

Adding either AIken or Allard to an already-stacked farm system would almost be unfair. Aiken projects as a #1, a player similar to Cole Hamels. While some don’t project Allard to have that ceiling, he reminds others of a left-handed version of Zack Greinke. The Twins would be lucky to have a guy like that at the top of their rotation.

In fact, the Twins seem to be the highest team with connections to Allard. If he proves healthy before the draft, it’s a marriage that will seemingly happen.

So what’s the problem, right?

Why the Twins will not pick them

There are a few problems.

First, let’s start with Aiken. As the Saga goes, Brady Aiken had an MRI that showed UCL “abnormalities” before he intended to sign with Houston. That’s where the clarity ends. Some have reported a shorter UCL, some have reported a narrow UCL. Nothing is clear except that it was “abnormal” and led the Astros to believe that his future health was more in question than most pitchers his age.

In addition to that - after having the surgery - there are reports that won’t let go about his “abnormal” UCL. Basically, they think the long-term health of his left elbow jeopardizes his entire professional career. That could be enough of a question mark to have the Twins simply say, “No thanks.”

The money would also be an issue. Would he sign for less than $4 million this year after walking away from $5 million less than a year ago? That’s a big question mark. And the fact that all indications point in the direction that teams haven’t received medicals on Aiken yet, you’re now dealing with a whole other set of issues. Issues that might, simply, just not be worth it.

Kolby Allard is a different story. He’s not dealing with an elbow issue. Nobody is suggesting that his career may be in jeopardy. What we are dealing with, though, is an undersized 17-year-old who hasn’t been available to watch for the last three months.

When he returns, how will his mechanics be? Once a pitcher starts throwing differently, it messes with your whole body. Just today, the Nationals placed Stephen Strasburg on the disabled list with neck tightness. The cause of this tightness? An ankle sprain that caused him - probably unknowingly - to make some mechanical adjustments that added stress to his neck and shoulder area. And what ends up feeling these adjustments in the end? Typically a small little ligament in the elbow…

Now, obviously, that’s projecting the worst-case scenario. A scenario that doesn’t even need a lead-up. Any pitcher’s elbow can snap at any time.

The question is for the Twins: Are you willing to invest big money - and likely your last high pick - in damaged goods?