Twins 2027 Arbitration Decisions: Who Stays, Who Goes?

The Twins have 10 players eligible for arbitration this offseason, meaning those players remain under team control but the club must decide whether to tender them contracts at a potentially increased salary, or non-tender them and make them free agents.

Notably, the deadline to tender or non-tender falls in late November, before the expected lockout commences on December 1st. In a winter where some decisions may be delayed, these ones will need to be made on time. Some are very straightforward, while others have plenty of room for debate. 

Here's a look at the 10 players the Twins will need to decide on, from most service time to least. For each, I included which year of arbitration eligibility they're in (i.e. how far away from free agency), their projected 2027 salary per MLB Trade Rumors, and the percentage of likelihood they'll be tendered a contract by the Twins. 

The last one is of course my subjective opinion, briefly explained for each, but I'd love to hear in the comments section if others have differing takes.

Who stays and who goes for the Minnesota Twins in arbitration?

Anthony Banda: Final year of eligibility
MLBTR projection: $2.3M
Likelihood of tender: 40%

A borderline case, like many in the bullpen. Banda was rounding into form after a bad start before he went down with a season-ending lat injury. The 33-year-old's track record is unexceptional aside from a couple solid years with the Dodgers. The projected salary is not exorbitant, but not necessarily a great deal either. I see this as basically a coin flip, dependent on the front office's broader ambitions for upgrading the relief corps.

Dean Kremer: Final year of eligibility
MLBTR projection: $6.5M
Likelihood of tender: 80%

Not quite a lock but close. Kremer's one additional year of team control was part of the reason Minnesota parted with an intriguing prospect to acquire him at the deadline. He looked as good as they could have hoped after the trade. 

Bailey Ober: Final year of eligibility
MLBTR projection: $6.9M
Likelihood of tender: 30%

I would view this as more likely if the Twins didn't add Kremer. As things stand, the two are pretty redundant as back-end veteran starters with similar price tags. Ober held his own this year but Kremer demonstrated a lot more upside in the second half. That said, we know the Twins like Ober, and keeping them both for $14 million is not totally outlandish — you can never have too much pitching depth.

Joe Ryan: Final year of eligibility
MLBTR projection: $9.6M
Likelihood of tender: 100%

No-brainer. The only way Ryan is not a Twin in 2027 is if he gets traded (which I consider a very real possibility). Notably, his contract does have a mutual option for $13 million, but I have to assume the Twins will decline and pay the $100K buyout to save a few million bucks.

Trevor Larnach: Final year of eligibility
MLBTR projection: $6.3M
Likelihood of tender: 30%

He was a borderline candidate last time at this year, and generally made the Twins look smart for it. Posted a career-high OPS that ranked third on the team. But with Walker Jenkins and Emmanuel Rodriguez having arrived, there's just no room for him in the Minnesota outfield. I can see a reasonable chance of a sign-and-trade situation, but the Twins have notoriously struggled to find a market for their lefty corner outfielders in the past. I don't think they want to head into the lockout with Larnach on the books for next year.

Royce Lewis: Second-to-last year
MLBTR projection: $5.1M
Likelihood of tender: 60%

The trickiest and most weighty decision among this group. The notion of simply letting Lewis go for nothing over $5 million coming off his healthiest season would've been incomprehensible a few short years ago, but it's where we are at. Money is not the issue. He's turned into a poor offensive first baseman on a team that needs to improve its lineup, and he finished the year looking as bad as ever. I think there's a slightly better than 50/50 shot of a tender because the Twins could probably get something in a trade, but from my view there's little chance of him being on this team next Opening Day.

Cole Sands: Second-to-last year
MLBTR projection: $1.3M
Likelihood of tender: 30%

Again: cost not an issue, but more so realistic upside at this point. Good as he looked in 2024, he has a 5.04 ERA since, and lost almost all of this past season to injury. You almost wonder if they could non-tender and re-sign him to a minor-league deal.

Tommy Nance: Third-to-last year
MLBTR projection: $1.2M
Likelihood of tender: 50%

The $1.2 million figure isn't much, but it's probably enough to pencil him into a role in the 2027 bullpen. Nance was fine but he's nothing special. If the Twins want to meaningfully invest as they claim, spending money to upgrade this spot feels like a clear opportunity. Then again, nothing wrong with keeping him around as an inexpensive lower-leverage option.

Kody Clemens: Third-to-last year
MLBTR projection: $3.6M
Likelihood of tender: 100%

He's got an argument for team MVP. There's no question he's coming back with that modest salary increase. This is Clemens' first year of arbitration eligibility, meaning he won't be a free agent until after the 2029 season. What a find.

Taj Bradley: Third-to-last year
MLBTR projection: $4.5M
Likelihood of tender: 100%

Next to Clemens atop the list of candidates for MVP of the 2026 Twins. Also three years away from free agency. Bradley has become a building block for the rotation. The only way he doesn't get tendered a contract is if he's already reached agreement with the team on an extension before then, which is on the table. One way or another, he'll be back.

There are some easy calls here, but also a handful where reasonable minds can differ, especially with the Twins promising a more aggressive approach to improving the roster. Who would you tender, who would you cut loose, and where do you disagree with my percentages? Share your arbitration predictions in the comments.

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