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    The Trade Market For Trevor Plouffe


    Nick Nelson

    Trevor Plouffe is a key figure in the coming offseason for the Minnesota Twins, with the presence of Miguel Sano and the club's desire to get find him a spot in the field creating an interesting dynamic.

    I wouldn't say Plouffe is expendable – the Twins can't afford to simply give away a quality bat like his – but it would make sense to trade him this winter if the right opportunity presented itself.

    So what kind of return can we expect for Plouffe?

    Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson, USA Today

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    Many have been skeptical of Sano's ability to excel at third base because of his size, but Twins officials continue to cite his underrated athleticism in saying he can be an asset there. He did look decent in limited duty at the hot corner as a rookie.

    This much is clear: Sano is much more valuable if he's playing in the field, and relegating him to DH duty this early in his career is less than ideal. He won't be playing first base any time soon, and he sure seems like a better bet at third than in the outfield, where the Twins are apparently going to take a look at him even though he's never played there before.

    Trading Plouffe would open up third base while also adding payroll flexibility, as the 29-year-old is expected to make somewhere around $8 million through arbitration next year.

    But he was a big piece for the Twins offense this season. He batted fourth or fifth in 78 percent of Minnesota's games and drove in a team-leading 86 runs. That production is not easily replaced, and his defense at third was very solid to boot.

    The problem is that from the outside, Plouffe might not look quite as valuable as he does from the inside. Among 21 qualified MLB third basemen, he ranked 15th in OPS, eighth in home runs and 14th in WAR. By the numbers, he was not a standout starter at his position.

    He was, however, a legitimate starter, as well as a credible threat in the middle of the lineup. That's something plenty of teams could use. So what might another GM be willing to give up in order to acquire Plouffe, who has two years of team control remaining?

    Working in Terry Ryan's favor is a very thin free agent market at third base. The top name available is David Freese, who is basically an older and inferior version of Plouffe. After that, there's nobody that could really be viewed as a viable starter.

    That means clubs in dire need of help at the hot corner will be facing limited options this offseason. Here's a look at four such clubs, with a glance at what could be on the table in a potential Plouffe trade.

    Milwaukee Brewers

    Aramis Ramirez was Milwaukee's regular at third through the first half, but they traded him to Pittsburgh in July. Hernan Perez got most of the starts thereafter, but did little to establish himself and has never really profiled as a big-league starter. The Brewers lack impact prospects at the position, and need to right the ship following a 94-loss season, so they will surely be aggressive in pursuit of upgrades.

    What Might a Deal Look Like?

    The Brewers recently exercised the $8 million option for 2016 on Adam Lind's contract. He'd make a lot of sense as a return piece in a Plouffe trade, because he could take over the freshly vacated DH spot and his powerful lefty bat would look even better than Plouffe's behind Sano. Milwaukee would maybe have to throw in an additional mid-level prospect since the Twins would be losing a year of team control in going from Plouffe to Lind.

    Atlanta Braves

    Atlanta had nine different players start at third base in 2015, with none drawing more than 41 starts. Nobody is coming up internally to help out at the position so they have a strong need to look outside. The Braves scored the fewest runs in baseball this year and had only one player surpass 10 home runs, so they could definitely use a power infusion.

    What Might a Deal Look Like?

    One arm that could be of great interest to the Twins is Arodys Vizcaino. The 24-year-old throws in the high 90s and took over as Atlanta's closer in September, finishing the year with a 1.60 ERA and 37 strikeouts in 33 innings. He missed the first half of this season after testing positive for the same drug as Ervin Santana, but bounced back nicely and finally showed signs of reining in the control issues that have been his limitation. Skilled young catcher Christian Bethancourt is another to watch.

    San Diego Padres

    The incumbent, Yangervis Solarte, is an overachiever who lacks the talent of a player like Plouffe. The Padres are always searching for offensive punch, and might be especially interested in a right-handed bat with Justin Upton likely to depart as a free agent.

    What Might a Deal Look Like?

    The most appealing player on the San Diego roster is Derek Norris, a 27-year-old catcher with a good bat. He's young and won't be a free agent until 2019 so he'd be a long-term answer at a position where the Twins sorely need one. Plouffe plus a prospect in the Jorge Polanco range might get it done.

    Chicago White Sox

    Trades within the division are rare, so this might be a long shot, but the White Sox are truly hopeless at third base. Tyler Saladino received the most starts for them this year, leading a bunch that also included Conor Gilaspie, Gordon Beckham and Mike Olt. No help from the farm is near.

    What Might a Deal Look Like?

    The White Sox have a number of very good right-handed pitching prospects, including Spencer Adams, Tyler Danish, Carson Fulmer and Frankie Montas. If the Twins could add any of those arms to their system, while finding a bat elsewhere to replace Plouffe's, it would be a savvy move for the long-term. Again: it's hard to see Chicago sending one of its better young arms to a division rival.

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    What if you could get the Angels to take on Nolasco in a trade for Plouffe.

     

    Plouffe & Nolasco for Trevor Gott & Cam Bedrosian?

     

    That would be the angle I would pursue as well.  You want Plouffe but carefully…..push Nolasco into the deal.  Because of the shortage of available 3rd basemen this offseason, I think now is the prime opportunity to get something for Trevor.  Ryan absolutely should deal him.

    MLBTR projects Plouffe to get $7.7 mil this winter in arbitration, could push $10 mil next winter.  Probably the same as Todd Frazier will earn (guaranteed $7.5 mil in 2016, then arb eligible for 2017).

     

    They also predict Freese to ultimately get 3/30 from a market including the Angels, White Sox, and Indians, although they note the third year as possible due to the lack of a qualifying offer -- maybe 2/24 is in play if the QO effect is overblown for him...

     

    Would it be better for us to see our division rivals shut out at 3B upgrades, or to see them to take the top FA option off the board for the Angels?  I'm not sure we get any strong offers for Plouffe as long as Freese is on the market.

    I have no problems trading Plouffe to an AL central team.  As stated everywhere, he's an average 3B, to slightly above.  He hits well in TF, which I suppose could be an issue, but this isn't hte type of player that can burn you later.  I suspect it will be AL central teams who are less likely to hand over a nice prospect for him than it will be Ryan trading Plouffe.  If the WhiteSox gave the best deal, I'd have no problems taking it.  As it is, we already got Escobar for 2 months of Liriano.  I wouldn't mind fleecing them for years of Plouffe. :)

     

    Again, Nolasco has negative trade value right now.  If you include him and his any part of his $24 mil remaining, you'd basically have to give Plouffe away.

     

     

    I disagree.  With Plouffe as the primary commodity in any deal and Nolasco as ancillary, all the TWins need to do is sweeten the pot to get something worthwhile in return.  Maybe part of his salary and or a lower level prospect.  You won't be giving Plouffe away for free.  Someone will bite if for the only reason that Nolasco is a proven innings eater, only has two years left on his deal and Plouffe is icing on the cake.  

    Edited by laloesch

    Nolasco clearly has negative trade value.  To unload him, you have to eat most of his salary or sacrifice talent with him (or accept less in return, if paired with Plouffe, that's the very definition of negative trade value.

     

    Also, Nolasco is not currently a proven innings eater, he has failed to do so for two consecutive years and is coming off ankle surgery.  Even aside from the guaranteed $24 million that someone has to pay, taking a flier on him also occupies a 40-man roster spot at a time of year when those spots are critical (either for protecting your own players or claiming interesting players forced out on other teams).

     

    If we are willing to eat a ton of cash, we might be able to move Nolasco somewhere this winter, but his name almost certainly torpedoes any deal where you hope to get talent back.




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