The Chris Paddack Dilemma: Is He a Viable Starting Rotation Option for 2024?

Between Royce Lewis's breakout postseason performance, Pablo López putting on one of the best postseason pitching performances in franchise history, and the cathartic ending of the Twins' 18-game playoff losing streak, there was a more understated (yet noteworthy) optimism-inducing occurrence late in 2023: The dominance of starter-turned-temporary-reliever Chris Paddack.

For much of the 2023 season, Paddack existed more as an idea than as a pitcher who could make an impact on one of the best pitching staffs in Major League Baseball. "Will he be able to come back and pitch toward the end of the season?" fans wondered, as reporters provided occasional insight into how Paddack was progressing post-Tommy John surgery.

Eventually, it was announced that Paddack would return from the 60-day injured list on September 24, right before the Twins started a series against the lowly Los Angeles Angels. Paddack was in line to make his debut against the Angels the same day, but a rain delay aborted what was supposed to be his grand return from a 16-month absence. 

Instead, Paddack returned against the Oakland Athletics on September 26, the same team he faced when he tore his ulnar collateral ligament (UCL) in 2022. He worked two innings, striking out four of the 11 batters he faced while giving up three earned runs, on four hits and one walk.

Paddack struggled in his first appearance of 2023, but immediately bounced back against the Colorado Rockies on September 30, striking out four of the 11 batters he faced while giving up zero earned runs over two frames. Paddack's four innings pitched at the major-league level and the 14 innings he threw in the minors convinced the Twins' decision-makers that he would be a worthwhile addition to the 26-man Wild Card Series roster against the Toronto Blue Jays.

Paddack didn't pitch against the Blue Jays in the first round, but he made his Twins postseason debut against the Houston Astros in the ALDS. In the two games he threw against the Astros, Paddack generated an incredible 0.27 WHIP and 14.7 K/9, striking out six of the 12 Astros batters he faced. He surrendered only one hit over 3 2/3 innings pitched.

Though Paddack wasn't the only Twins reliever who excelled during the postseason, the long and tedious road he traveled to get there is what made his commanding performance truly special. Fast-forward to the present, and the Twins find themselves on the brink of reintegrating Paddack into the role they wanted him to fill when they acquired him on Opening Day of the 2022 season: that of a mid-rotation starter. The Twins transitioning Paddack back into that gig seemed like a relative certainty to those who follow the Twins closely, especially with the recent departures of Kenta Maeda and Sonny Gray. Yet, the decision to give Paddack a spot in 2024 has stirred some unexpected controversy at the national level. 

On November 28, Keith Law of The Athletic wrote an article wherein he recapped Maeda and Gray signing with the Detroit Tigers and St. Louis Cardinals, respectively, and how the Twins could realistically fill the holes the two veterans left in the starting rotation. In his article, Law states that the Twins "only have three true starters left on the roster: Pablo López, Joe Ryan, and Bailey Ober." 

Law then went on to state that the organization has several former starters turned relievers, including Louie Varland, who, according to Law, "was very homer-prone as a starter last season," which is true, evidenced by his 20.6% HR/FB over 10 games as a starter. 

Also, Law mentioned Jordan Balazovic, who "hasn't shown enough command to even be a good reliever yet," as another potential rotation option. Law was correct to say that Balazovic hasn't shown that he could be a good reliever yet, let alone a starter, but to mention his name as a potential rotation option for the Twins in 2024 feels like a statement someone who is out of touch with how the franchise is operating would make. Law is one of my favorite baseball analysts, so I don't want it to appear as if I am bashing him. Yet, I want to provide clarity and context to his coverage of the Twins and their mode of operation before sharing what he declared next.

If one were to scroll down to the comment section of Law's article, they would see various Twins fans asking him why he mentioned Balazovic as a rotation option yet blatantly ignored Paddack. A specific commenter, "Jesse W." questioned Law's stance by stating, "I definitely agree with the conclusion that the Twins need another pitcher, but this was a weird write-up about their rotation. No mention of Chris Paddack, whom they're obviously planning on having in the starting rotation, but for some reason a mention of Balazovic, who is a guy they've pretty clearly given up on. Was this blurb written last year?"

Law responded to Jesse W., saying, "(Paddack has) never made 30 starts or thrown 150 innings in any year. Anyone assuming he'll do either of those things after he threw just 14 total innings last year (minors + majors) is ... well, to quote someone else in this thread, 'lazy.'" Law finished, adding, "If the Twins want to be unrealistic, that's on them. That's not the world in which I operate. The point of my paragraph on them is what they need to do, not what they might internally believe."

While it is understandable to question the Twins' seemingly unassailable confidence in Paddack, who pitched 18 (not 14) total innings in 2023 after his second Tommy John surgery in seven years and has never pitched an entire season as a starter anywhere in pro ball, to suggest he is not a viable rotation option--and maybe even that Balazovic is closer to being one--was bizarre. The front office must find a way to replace Maeda and Gray's contributions toward the rotation in 2023. They're not expecting Paddack to give them everything Gray did. He's a much better analog for Maeda, and that's the production they'll hope he can match.

Replacing Gray will likely end up being a group effort, effected by multiple back-end starting pitchers. The team might make a cheap free-agent signing like Hyun-Jin Ryu or Michael Wacha, or throw a combination of young internal options like Varland, Simeon Woods Richardson, and David Festa at the problem. To expect Paddack to shoulder that burden would be unfair and unreasonable, a mode of thinking that should be avoided at all costs.

No matter the outside perspective, Paddack will play a vital role in the success of the Twins' starting rotation in 2024. Whether he thrives in an expanded role or crumbles under pressure is yet to be seen, but when taking into account the front office's ability to trade for and further develop veteran starting pitchers (i.e., Gray and López) and watching Paddack thrive on the mound as recently October, there is reason to be optimistic about his outlook.

Was it unfair of Law to include Balazovic and omit Paddack? Do you think the Twins are wise to have faith in Paddack? Do you think Padddack will perform well in 2024? Comment below.