Sonny Gray Might Have Been Front Offices’ Greatest Work

There is no denying that the 2021 Minnesota Twins left plenty to be desired. Coming out of the Covid-shortened season, Rocco Baldelli’s club finished last in the AL Central and went through a whopping 35 pitchers on the year. A ridiculous sixteen players made starts for Minnesota, and Matt Shoemaker was allowed to pitch over 60 innings with an ERA north of 8.00.

Addressing the need for help, Minnesota sent their recent first round pick Chase Petty to the Cincinnati Reds in exchange for Sonny Gray. It was a tough pill to swallow as Petty was a prep arm with a triple-digit fastball, but understanding the volatility for that type of arm, the Twins got a guaranteed asset.

Gray had struggled with the New York Yankees, but he was only a couple of years removed from an all-star appearance and Cy Young votes with the Reds. He hadn’t throw 200 innings since 2015, and isn’t exactly a bulldog, but it’s always been clear that he’s a very good talent when on.

Although the Twins fell apart down the stretch last season, Gray was certainly not to blame. He posted a 3.08 ERA in his first year with Minnesota, and though bad pitching had Twins starters making short starts, Gray was among the best of the bunch. Then came 2023.

Noting in spring training that he intended to go deeper in games, Baldelli was going to need better performances from Gray and the rotation. Minnesota transformed the rotation to among the best in baseball, and Gray was front-and-center for the effort. His 2.79 ERA trailed only Gerrit Cole in the American League, and he will again get Cy Young votes. He became an all-star again, and his 184 innings was the most he has thrown since 2015.

Thanks to his quality pitching, Gray will be among the most coveted arms in what is otherwise a weaker free agent pitching class. Shohei Ohtani isn’t able to throw in 2024, and multiple contending teams will be in on the 34-year-old Gray to help them prop up a postseason run. It would be unwise to go all in on an aging talent, but there is certainly a number of years and dollars that make sense for Minnesota or someone else to find a middle ground.

By acquiring Gray as they did, and believing in the performance he would provide, Minnesota now stands to recoup the value of the initial deal at the very least. Handing Gray a qualifying offer means that any team signing him will forfeit a draft pick, and Minnesota will be awarded a pick near the top of the draft. A compensatory selection won’t be a direct one-for-one where Petty was taken, but it certainly won’t be far off.

The Reds weren’t in a place to utilize Gray to his fullest capabilities when they dealt him, and acquired a future asset they believed in. Minnesota needed help immediately and could sacrifice what was something of an uncertain prospect, but the blueprint played out beautifully. Ending up with a draft pick won’t replace Gray in the rotation for 2024, but you couldn’t have asked for a better cycle of life from one deal.

Not all trades work out, and plenty of them have gone sideways for this front office, but there are few ways this outcome could have presented itself better. For that, Falvey and Minnesota have to be thrilled with the results.