Should the Twins Bring Back Luis Arraez?

On 8/30/2025 at 6:30 AM, Major League Ready said:

He is going to end up with roughly 1.7 WAR (in total) for the last two years.  Probably around .5-.6 this year.  How will that help?  Outman produced 3.9 WAR his 1st season which is better than Arraez has ever done.  Should we believe Outman is going back to 4 WAR?  It's possible but I sure would not bet on it.

WAR is interesting to me.  Arraez produced a 3.2 WAR in 21 with a .294 average, 17 doubles 6 triples and 2 home runs with 42 RBI 58 runs and like 125 hits or something like that.   

This season he has produced a 0.8 WAR and is hitting .284 with 149 hits, 29 doubles, 4 triples and 6 homeruns. 49 RBI and 55 runs scored.  121 games vs 130 games.  I don't understand how these two numbers can be so much different??  Even 9 stolen bases this year vs 2 stolen bases in 21?  Almost everything is better this season except for the average??

Also besides this point, I don't think Luis Arraez would resign with the Twins.  I mean maybe if he was 38 and just wanted to play another season before retirement.  But he has been involved in pennant races the last two seasons and in no way will the Twins be competitive any time soon.  Maybe 2 - 3 seasons from now?  Carlos Santana would probably come back though??

Arraez doesn't really fit the Twins lineup, sure if he hit .320 he would lengthen the lineup, but for who?  I mean if he was in a lineup with Judge or ohtani or something like that and hit .320 in that lineup and caused Judge to get some extra at bats then he'd probably be a good fit.  But causing Larnach or Jeffers to get a couple extra at bats doesn't really do anything for the Twins.  

On 8/30/2025 at 1:32 PM, Derojo said:

Luis Arraez has never reminded me of Rod Carew. BTW - Carew hit below .300 his first two years and then always above. Essentially, achieving and sustaining excellence.

1st base is a position that needs power, such as Hrbek brought to it. Hrbek was a great fielder as well and had height and length.

Rod Carew was also a 1st baseman?  But he was in lineups with other guys that had pop.  

2 hours ago, stringer bell said:

I find it interesting that you bring up Wallner in an Arraez discussion because I thought about it too. I agree wholeheartedly that OPS and OPS+ paint an unrealistic picture for guys like Joey Gallo and Matt Wallner. Wallner hasn't had a good year and his comparatively high OPS+ shouldn't hide that. Arraez hasn't been good for two years in a row and his batting average shouldn't paint a different picture. Both guys are extreme examples of one-trick ponies. Arraez hits singles, Wallner hits bombs. Neither guy helps his team much on the bases or with a glove in his hand. WAR and OPS+ probably penalize Arraez too much for his lack of slug and add too much for Wallner, but neither is someone to build a team around. A team can probably thrive with one guy who has one major skill, but too many slow singles hitters with high batting averages and too many "three true outcome" guys won't win.

I'll add a response to this post as well. The '77 Twins won 84 games and finished fourth in the AL West despite scoring the most runs in the American League. Rod Carew was the deserved MVP with a season for the ages and the other guys named above were terrific as well. They led the league in both BA and OBP and OPS but were only fifth in OPS due to lack of slugging. By any measure that is an effective offense. The '77 Twins had quite a bit of speed--Carew, Bostock, Hisle--but stole a middling 105 bases but they were second in the league in both doubles and triples. Only winning 84 games shows how important pitching is and always has been.

48 years later, the game has changed quite a bit. With all the hard throwing pitchers who get more than a strikeout an inning, it is harder to string together singles to score runs without extra base hits. A club with too many Luis Arraezes just won't score enough runs especially when they can't take an extra base. 

Don't forget the 77 Twins had one of the worst pitching staffs ever assembled, which is why their .282 team batting average was a huge factor in them finishing 7 games above .500. My main point is, it doesn’t have to be Arraez but the Twins have to stop fielding teams with as many as 5 .220 or below hitters. I especially like Gonzalez and Culpepper and Jenkins is maybe a little behind them.

20 minutes ago, Twodogs said:

WAR is interesting to me.  Arraez produced a 3.2 WAR in 21 with a .294 average, 17 doubles 6 triples and 2 home runs with 42 RBI 58 runs and like 125 hits or something like that.   

 

This season he has produced a 0.8 WAR and is hitting .284 with 149 hits, 29 doubles, 4 triples and 6 homeruns. 49 RBI and 55 runs scored.  121 games vs 130 games.  I don't understand how these two numbers can be so much different??  Even 9 stolen bases this year vs 2 stolen bases in 21?  Almost everything is better this season except for the average??

 

Also besides this point, I don't think Luis Arraez would resign with the Twins.  I mean maybe if he was 38 and just wanted to play another season before retirement.  But he has been involved in pennant races the last two seasons and in no way will the Twins be competitive any time soon.  Maybe 2 - 3 seasons from now?  Carlos Santana would probably come back though??

 

Arraez doesn't really fit the Twins lineup, sure if he hit .320 he would lengthen the lineup, but for who?  I mean if he was in a lineup with Judge or ohtani or something like that and hit .320 in that lineup and caused Judge to get some extra at bats then he'd probably be a good fit.  But causing Larnach or Jeffers to get a couple extra at bats doesn't really do anything for the Twins.  

I think WAR is a totally useless statistic and even Bill James agrees with me. It’s wildly flawed by including the advanced defensive metrics, which are a recent "experiment" that produces absurd evaluation after absurd evaluation. When Correa was having his best defensive season here, he ranked in the 18th percentile for OAA, one of the worst. Correa simply said, "of course I have a low outs above average, we have a flyball staff".

My first clue was when 2019 Eddie Rosario had a 0.9 WAR. On further research, I found that his WAR was 3.1 but the formula subtracted all but 0.9 for some dubious, neophyte defensive metrics that attempt to measure the impossible - a players range, arm and all the other nuanced factors that go into making a good defensive player. I’ll take a scouts (especially a cross section of scouts) evaluation any day, using the 20 to 80 scale on myriad factors.

The other weird thing is Wins against Replacement. Who is this fictitious player? Is it someone on the players team who would be next in line? Or a AAA player? It’s so nebulous on its face.

And crazily enough, I’m not sure if it was Rosario or not but I looked at the same player and he had a full 1.0 difference in his WAR from one publisher of WAR to another.

7 hours ago, Twodogs said:

WAR is interesting to me.  Arraez produced a 3.2 WAR in 21 with a .294 average, 17 doubles 6 triples and 2 home runs with 42 RBI 58 runs and like 125 hits or something like that.   

 

This season he has produced a 0.8 WAR and is hitting .284 with 149 hits, 29 doubles, 4 triples and 6 homeruns. 49 RBI and 55 runs scored.  121 games vs 130 games.  I don't understand how these two numbers can be so much different??  Even 9 stolen bases this year vs 2 stolen bases in 21?  Almost everything is better this season except for the average??

 

Also besides this point, I don't think Luis Arraez would resign with the Twins.  I mean maybe if he was 38 and just wanted to play another season before retirement.  But he has been involved in pennant races the last two seasons and in no way will the Twins be competitive any time soon.  Maybe 2 - 3 seasons from now?  Carlos Santana would probably come back though??

 

Arraez doesn't really fit the Twins lineup, sure if he hit .320 he would lengthen the lineup, but for who?  I mean if he was in a lineup with Judge or ohtani or something like that and hit .320 in that lineup and caused Judge to get some extra at bats then he'd probably be a good fit.  But causing Larnach or Jeffers to get a couple extra at bats doesn't really do anything for the Twins.  

If you look at Fangraphs.  They have him at 1.6 WAR for 21.  His OBP is quite a bit lower this year but you also have not considered defense.  If you look at Fangraphs defensive rating, he has a negative rating that is detracting from his overall WAR.   I look at the .316 OBP with very low slug along with poor defense and base running and the Fangraphs WAR seems about right.

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

If you look at Fangraphs.  They have him at 1.6 WAR for 21.  His OBP is quite a bit lower this year but you also have not considered defense.  If you look at Fangraphs defensive rating, he has a negative rating that is detracting from his overall WAR.   I look at the .316 OBP with very low slug along with poor defense and base running and the Fangraphs WAR seems about right.

I looked at the WAR on baseball reference.   It's just such a weird statistic.  Like back when Aaron Judge had a higher WAR than Ohtani and Ohtani was pitching and hitting.  Like that season Ohtani was hitting well and pitching fantastic, I mean how do you even find a replacement for that.  His WAR that season almost should have been infinity cause there isn't any replacement for that.  Anyway, the fangraphs WAR may be better, but again, why the difference?  OPS on fangraphs is the same as OPS on baseball reference.  Just seems a little weird to me?  Thanks though as a 1.6 would make more sense.

8 hours ago, Greglw3 said:

I think WAR is a totally useless statistic and even Bill James agrees with me. It’s wildly flawed by including the advanced defensive metrics, which are a recent "experiment" that produces absurd evaluation after absurd evaluation. When Correa was having his best defensive season here, he ranked in the 18th percentile for OAA, one of the worst. Correa simply said, "of course I have a low outs above average, we have a flyball staff".

My first clue was when 2019 Eddie Rosario had a 0.9 WAR. On further research, I found that his WAR was 3.1 but the formula subtracted all but 0.9 for some dubious, neophyte defensive metrics that attempt to measure the impossible - a players range, arm and all the other nuanced factors that go into making a good defensive player. I’ll take a scouts (especially a cross section of scouts) evaluation any day, using the 20 to 80 scale on myriad factors.

The other weird thing is Wins against Replacement. Who is this fictitious player? Is it someone on the players team who would be next in line? Or a AAA player? It’s so nebulous on its face.

And crazily enough, I’m not sure if it was Rosario or not but I looked at the same player and he had a full 1.0 difference in his WAR from one publisher of WAR to another.

Someone should come up with a "new better" stat.  I'm thinking production above replacement instead of wins.  Because if you think about it.  Win above replacement is going to be different if you play for the Dodgers as opposed to playing for the Rockies.  Since the Rockies hardly win any games anyway you really can't have that many wins above a replacement on that team???  I wonder if that is calculated??  

But production above replacement now, you could just take the positive things like number of hits, runs scored, RBI's stolen bases, extra base hits, walks, sacrifices, wins, era, saves, strikeouts, quality starts, plays in the field, you could even assign each play by difficulty,  etc.....  assign each stat a value and then subtract negative things, like caught stealing, strikeouts, errors, failed sacrifices,  grounding into double plays, losses, runs given up, walks, blown saves, etc.... assign each of these things a value and come up with a number.  Then average all of the players in MLB and come up with what the average players production is and then you could see a players production above replacement.  Just straight production not wins.  

On 9/1/2025 at 9:01 AM, Twodogs said:

Someone should come up with a "new better" stat.  I'm thinking production above replacement instead of wins.  Because if you think about it.  Win above replacement is going to be different if you play for the Dodgers as opposed to playing for the Rockies.  Since the Rockies hardly win any games anyway you really can't have that many wins above a replacement on that team???  I wonder if that is calculated??  

But production above replacement now, you could just take the positive things like number of hits, runs scored, RBI's stolen bases, extra base hits, walks, sacrifices, wins, era, saves, strikeouts, quality starts, plays in the field, you could even assign each play by difficulty,  etc.....  assign each stat a value and then subtract negative things, like caught stealing, strikeouts, errors, failed sacrifices,  grounding into double plays, losses, runs given up, walks, blown saves, etc.... assign each of these things a value and come up with a number.  Then average all of the players in MLB and come up with what the average players production is and then you could see a players production above replacement.  Just straight production not wins.  

That is wins above replacement. Everything is first calculated as runs above replacement, then they divide by 10 (or a number close to 10) to get to WAR.