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    Randy Dobnak’s Journey Back: A 2025 Role in Sight?


    Cody Christie

    Randy Dobnak fought his way back to the Twins in 2024. Does he have a role with the club for 2025?

    Image courtesy of Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

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    Randy Dobnak's story has been filled with the twists and turns typical of an undrafted free agent, along with his rise to the big leagues that came faster than anyone could have expected. From an Uber-driving minor leaguer to a fan-favorite starting pitcher, his early success with the Twins earned him a surprising five-year, $9.25 million contract extension in 2021. At the time, the Twins saw the deal as a low-risk investment in a pitcher who had carved out a reliable role. Three years later, that contract has become a regret, a reminder of the volatility that comes with early extensions.

    Dobnak's extension seemed like a safe bet when the ink dried in 2021. After all, he had posted a 3.12 ERA with 1.27 WHIP and a 142 ERA+ over his first two seasons, and his mix of ground-ball-inducing sinkers and a serviceable slider made him a valuable piece at the back end of the rotation. Unfortunately, a mix of injuries and poor performance derailed those plans. The 2021 season saw Dobnak struggle mightily, and his next two years were marred by a stubborn tendon injury in his pitching hand. His ERA ballooned to 7.64 in 2021, and he never fully regained traction with the big-league club.

    As the contract stretches into its fourth year, the Twins are left holding the bag. Dobnak's deal, which runs through 2025 with a $1 million buyout for 2026, gives the team little financial flexibility. While it's not a bank-breaking figure, it's a frustrating line item for a pitcher who has contributed minimally at the MLB level since early 2021. Still, the structure of the deal has its benefits. The guaranteed money allows the Twins to pass Dobnak through waivers without much concern that another team will claim him because no team is eager to pick up what's left of his contract.

    Despite his struggles and injury woes, Dobnak has slowly reestablished himself at Triple-A St. Paul. His 2024 season started as a rebuilding effort, focused primarily on regaining command of his offspeed offerings. Dobnak spent time in the Saints’ rotation and bullpen, compiling a 4.25 ERA in 24 appearances with the Saints. In a hitter-friendly league, he limited batters to a .395 SLG and a .739 OPS, 24 points lower than the league average. After years of fighting through injuries and poor performance, it was a step in the right direction. 

    Dobnak made his triumphant return to the big-league level in 2024 after being relegated to the minors since 2021. Since he was stretched out, he pitched multiple innings in three of his five appearances, including being asked to finish three games. One bad appearance against the White Sox (2 ER in 2/3 IP) hurt his overall numbers for the year. However, he ended the year with one earned run allowed, a home run, over his final five innings pitched. For a team needing consistency out of the bullpen, Dobnak’s performance might point to a more significant role in his contract’s final year. 

    What does 2025 hold for Dobnak? It’s still unclear, but his resurgence at Triple-A has opened the door for a potential role with the Twins next season. His days as a full-time starter may be behind him, but there’s always room for a versatile pitcher who can spot-start or provide innings in relief. His ability to eat innings when healthy gives him value on a staff that could use durability, especially with the uncertainties surrounding younger pitchers like Simeon Woods Richardson and David Festa. In a sense, Dobnak has done precisely what the Twins needed him to do by rebuilding value, even if only at a minor-league level.

    Minnesota might have bigger aspirations in the rotation, with the likes of Pablo López, Bailey Ober, and Joe Ryan headlining the group, but depth is always a concern. The team learned the hard way that pitching injuries can mount quickly. In that context, a healthy Dobnak is a valuable insurance policy, especially since he is already on the payroll. The club can stash him at Triple-A and call him up when needed, without worrying about losing him to another team on waivers.

    For Dobnak, the road back to the majors has been arduous. His long-term contract, once viewed as a team-friendly steal, now serves as a reminder of the risks tied to early-career extensions. However, the Twins aren’t entirely hamstrung. Dobnak’s recent success at Triple-A suggests he still has something left in the tank, and his contract’s structure provides the team with flexibility. 

    In a best-case scenario, Dobnak can carve out a niche in 2025 as a swingman, a role that perfectly suits his skill set. Worst-case? The Twins are on the hook for what remains of his deal, and they’ll need to look elsewhere for pitching depth. Either way, Dobnak’s journey is far from over, and his ability to adapt could write a new chapter in his unpredictable career.

    What role will Dobnak fill in 2025? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

     

     

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    7 hours ago, Otaknam said:

    The Dobnak signing was always a head scratcher. He did little to earn that contract, and has done even less since then. He has always been a four inning pitcher, so it’s unrealistic to think he is more than that. Another mistake by the front office.

    For clarity are you referring to 4-inning games pitching for the Twins? Or 4-innings pitched including his time with the Saints?

    In checking, I found the following dates for games he pitched this year for the Saints in which he pitched at least 5 innings:

    4-27/5.0.   5-10/6.0.  5-16/5.0.   6-2/6.0

       6-15/6.0.  6-21/5.0.  6-27/5.0.   7-2/5.0.

    7-13/5.0.   7-19/5.0.   7-25/7.0.   8-23/5.0

    9-10/5.0.(pitched innings 5 thru 9)   9-15/5.2.   9-4/6.0 (piggybacked this game and pitched innings  4 thru 9)  

    It guess it was Gardenhire 's decision to limit starters to 5 innings or a pitch count. They sometimes pitched longer if they were on top of their game.

     

     

    3 hours ago, Verified Member said:

    Jeff K’s response is a respectful disagreement. Good on you.

    Personally I expect Dobnak to shuttle up to the Twins this year, pitch a few innings and then be waived yet again. Except this waiver will coincide with a KC pitching injury and the Royals will claim him, turn him into a stud pitcher  and Dobnak will have three wins against the Twins with a 1.47 ERA!!! Or maybe not😀

    It's always nice to hope and dream. I especially like the part you said about Dobnak having three wins against the Twins. What a great feeling of satisfaction that would be for him.

    7 hours ago, D.C Twins said:

    I'm a huge Dobnak fan! By all accounts, he is a great guy and teammate!

    I'm glad he got paid... and no, his salary is not holding the Twins back compared to MANY other issues. 

    But, I do have eyes wide open that he is unlikely to contribute to any playoff caliber Twins team. 

     

    On 10/21/2024 at 4:01 AM, djm24 said:

    First of all, I never wanted to leave my "two cents" on a comment board such as I his. But I've had a change of heart and these will undoubtedly be the ONLY comments I will ever make here. So, you great authoritarians can criticize me all you want.

    Thank you, Cody, for your very respectful article about Randy.. I enjoyed reading it. However, it appears that when ANY article about Dobnak is written, it draws out the Dobnak naysayers, criticizers and, of course, the haters, who just LOVE to leave their negative comments. Randy, like all of us, is not immortal. He is not the Twins "miracle worker". None of the players nor anyone employed by the organization are. I give him much credit for attempting to establish himself as a quality major league pitcher; one who is respected by the organization as well as the fans. Yes, he was given a nice contract and tried to prove to all that he was worthy of that contract. Obviously he did not intentionally injure his finger.That type of injury could have end the careers of other pitchers. But Randy was and is persistent in "working his way back".

    It is really sad that there are Twins players who are being paid salaries MUCH larger than Randy's and, according to some fans, have not "performed up to expectations". You know who they are. But do they receive as much criticism as Dobnak? You have to agree that, given the opportunity, most people would have been foolish not to accept the contract that Dobnak was offered. The amount of his contract - $9 million-,plus is miniscule compared to that of the SUPPOSEDLY superstar players who underperform and/or are frequently injured.

    So, as a Dobnak fan since he first signed as an undrafted player, I say, give the guy a chance. I would LOVE to see him given a "change of scenery" and a chance with another team. Obviously unlike many Twins fans, perhaps the fans of another team would appreciate him more.

    I realize all of you people have a right to your opinions and to post your comments. But please try to make them respectful.

    I apologize for my rambling here. But the hat do you expect from a woman? 😒

    So, criticize me all you want. But actually I don't care!!!

    I hope this isn't the only comment you will post. I think most of us appreciate a variety of comments and opinons (and ramblings especially!) about the Twins. Dobnak is a fascinating story and like many others, I hope he can still find a role with the Twins. I have no stats-based opinion on whether or not that will happen, but I can only hope he thrives in a role somewhere. 

    Thanks, Doc. I'm not sure how much I'll be posting on this board. But for sure you'll see my two cents whenever an article on Dobnak is written. Also, I'll continue to read other comments posted on various articles, as I find people's viewpoints interesting.

    As for Dobs, who knows what 2025 holds for him. It would be great if he found another pitch, or just improved in general. He does need better command to lower his walks rate. Hopefully he'll get a chance next year as a long reliever and spot starter, as I know, like most pitchers, he wants to be a starter.

    A lot of people feel that he is not "earning," the money from his good contract. And perhaps had he not been injured his performance would have been better. So, based on his good contract and less than stellar performance, it seems he's unfairly become a "punching bag" for many posters and fans in general. This is one reason why I would like to see him get a "fresh start" with another team. Actually I would very much like for him to be a part of the Twins 26 man roster next year. But the reality is that he'll probably be given only a slight chance at that, since the Front Office is into a ,youth movement" and is promoting the young prospects.

    I guess I better get off my rambling bandwagon. Hopefully the new coaching staff will help the team get to the playoffs next year and let us all forget about the blown playoff chances that happened this year.

     

     

     

     

     

     

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    21 hours ago, djm24 said:

    Thanks, Doc. I'm not sure how much I'll be posting on this board. But for sure you'll see my two cents whenever an article on Dobnak is written. Also, I'll continue to read other comments posted on various articles, as I find people's viewpoints interesting.

    As for Dobs, who knows what 2025 holds for him. It would be great if he found another pitch, or just improved in general. He does need better command to lower his walks rate. Hopefully he'll get a chance next year as a long reliever and spot starter, as I know, like most pitchers, he wants to be a starter.

    A lot of people feel that he is not "earning," the money from his good contract. And perhaps had he not been injured his performance would have been better. So, based on his good contract and less than stellar performance, it seems he's unfairly become a "punching bag" for many posters and fans in general. This is one reason why I would like to see him get a "fresh start" with another team. Actually I would very much like for him to be a part of the Twins 26 man roster next year. But the reality is that he'll probably be given only a slight chance at that, since the Front Office is into a ,youth movement" and is promoting the young prospects.

    I guess I better get off my rambling bandwagon. Hopefully the new coaching staff will help the team get to the playoffs next year and let us all forget about the blown playoff chances that happened this year.

     

     

     

     

     

     

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    I have no heartburn about his contract. It’s not much in MLB terms and was done in good faith. He got hurt - it happens. Considering the guys that they have run through the back of the pen it’s not out of the question we see him again.   Anyway good for him - I hope he put a couple million in the stock market when he got paid. He will be just fine. 




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