One Intriguing Shortstop Trade Target for the Twins

Baltimore surprised many by finishing the 2022 season with an above .500 record. The Orioles were the only American League team with a winning record that failed to make the playoffs. It felt like the Orioles were in a perpetual rebuild, but multiple years of high draft picks seem to be paying dividends. Now, Baltimore may be looking to capitalize on their momentum and put itself in contention for multiple years. 

The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports that multiple front offices have inquired about the availability of shortstop Jorge Mateo. He points to the Twins, Braves, Red Sox, and Dodgers as all teams that lost their starting shortstop this winter. Baltimore has multiple young infielders and other prospects close to the big-league level, making Mateo expendable if the right deal is on the table. 

The Yankees originally signed Mateo in January 2012 out of the Dominican Republic. He spent his first six seasons in the Yankees organization before being traded to the Oakland Athletics as part of the Sonny Gray trade. Mateo never broke through with the A’s before Oakland traded him to the Padres in 2020 for a player to be named later. His big-league debut came during the COVID-shortened season in San Diego, where he hit .154/.185/.269 (.454) in 22 games.   

Mateo saw limited action with the Padres, and the team placed him on waivers during the 2021 campaign. Baltimore claimed him, and he slid into an everyday role with the club. Last season, Mateo hit .221/.267/.379 (.646) with 25 doubles, seven triples, and 13 home runs. His 81 OPS+ is below league average, but he has other skills that make him an intriguing trade target. He led the AL with 35 steals last season and ranks in the 99th percentile for sprint speed. MLB is switching to bigger bases and limiting pick-off attempts, which can help players like Mateo be even more aggressive on the base paths. 

Defensively, Mateo is an elite shortstop that ranks among baseball’s best defenders. He ranked in the 97th percentile for outs above average and was a top-five shortstop according to Defensive Runs Saved. Mateo (7.8 SDI) also finished second to Houston’s Jeremy Pena (8.1 SDI) in SABR’s Defensive Index. Kyle Farmer currently projects as Minnesota’s Opening Day shortstop and posted a -2.0 SDI in 2022. Limiting defensive shifts next season will also mean that strong defensive players have an opportunity to provide more value to their teams. He also has experience playing all three outfield positions along with second and third base. That versatility can help him fit into a different role if Minnesota wants to use Royce Lewis at shortstop when he is healthy.  

Mateo didn’t debut until age 25 because he bounced around to different organizations and took time to develop. He is entering his first year in the arbitration process and projects to make under $2 million. His skill set would also keep his value down through the arbitration process, so he should remain relatively affordable during his three remaining years of team control. 

So, what can Mateo provide the Twins? His 3.4 WAR in 2022 would have ranked fourth on the Twins behind Carlos Correa, Luis Arraez, and Byron Buxton. He would be a clear defensive upgrade over Farmer, even if Farmer provides slightly more value at the plate. As Minnesota saw last year, it is important to have depth at multiple positions when injuries inevitably strike. Mateo can provide depth and be an affordable infielder for multiple seasons. However, the Twins might not want to leave shortstop open for when Lewis returns in the season’s second half. 

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