Mauer, Hunter Power Twins To Game 1 Win

Using Win Probabilty Added from Fan Graphs, the story of Game 1 is told below. As has been mentioned before, to determine these percentages, years upon years of actual game situations are used to determine how likely a team is to win from play to play. There were some big, game-changing plays in this one.

A BIG START

Joe Mauer batted second and hit his 10th home run of the season. (10.9%)

It's been a tough season for Mauer, but he led the way early for the Twins in this game. It's always great to get an early lead, and with Gibson's most recent start, a one-run lead is very important early. Statistically, it was the one play of the game that gave the Twins the best chance to win.

A BIG INNING

Joe Mauer double. (6.3%)

Miguel Sano singled Mauer to third base. (6.6%)

Trevor Plouffe RBI single scored Mauer, with Sano going to second. (5.0%)

Eddie Rosario walked to load the bases. (5.1%)

Torii Hunter clears the bases with a double. (8.4%)

With the score still 1-0 Twins going into the fourth inning, it was Mauer again who got things going with the leadoff double. And that was followed by big plate appearance after big plate appearance. Torii Hunter ended Carlos Carrasco's afternoon with a bases-clearing double down the left field line. That hit may not have been as big by WPA as Mauer's. However, it was the play that really put the game away for the Twins.

While Hunter's double increased the Twins odds of winning by 8.4%, the bigger picture is what matters. The Twins began that fourth inning with a 63.7% chance of winning the game. Following Hunter's double, the Twins odds of winning jumped to 95.1%

BUXTON CONTRIBUTES AGAIN

Twins fans have seen a different Byron Buxton in his last two starts. He had two hits including his first MLB home run over the weekend. He had two important hits in this game as well:

7th inning, Eduardo Nunez was on third base and Buxton had a broken-bat single to right to give the Twins a 6-1 lead. WPA says that it increased the Twins odds of winning by just 0.6%, but insurance runs are always good.

In the top of the 9th, Buxton led off with a huge home run just right of dead center field. Again, it was an insurance run late in the game to give the Twins a 7-1 lead, so WPA said it only increase the Twins odds of winning by 0.3%

More important, the success has to be giving Buxton the confidence that he can contribute to this winning Minnesota Twins team beyond just his great defense. That's important in the next few days, and it's really important looking to the future.

KYLE GIBSON DOMINATES

Last week at Target Field, Kyle Gibson gave up six earned runs on seven hits in just 2.2 innings against this Cleveland team. He felt he let his team down, and he used that as motivation in this game to be better.

The lanky right-hander threw six shutout innings on Wednesday afternoon. He gave up just four hits, walked two and struck out nine, a number he had reached just one time earlier in the season.

Gibson gave the Twins exactly what they needed.

WHAT'S NEXT?

Mike Pelfrey takes the mound for the Twins in Game 2 against Cleveland. In his most recent start, last Friday night at Detroit, he gave up just one run on six hits in five innings. He struck out seven without issuing a walk. Generally speaking, we can tell pretty early what Pelfrey will do. If he can pitch like he did on Friday, the Twins have a chance.

WILD CARD RACE

As Game 2 is about to start, the Twins are now just one game behind the Los Angeles Angels and 1/2 game behind the Houston Astros. They are both playing tonight as well.