Twins Should Turn to Louie Varland This Week, But Not For Starting Rotation

There's no denying that Louie Varland is among the Minnesota Twins' greatest developmental success stories. A 15th-round pick during the 2019 season, Varland's emergence as a legitimate big-league arm from Division-II Concordia-St. Paul is a win in and of itself. He has seen inconsistent results out of the starting rotation, and that has continued on the farm this year.

After posting a 6.58 ERA across 26 big-league innings, Varland has continued to struggle in terms of topline results, with a 5.35 ERA across 67 1/3 innings for Triple-A St. Paul. In his last six starts, though, his ERA is 1.48. Opponents have posted just a .590 OPS against him over that span, and Varland has punched out 28% of batters in 30 1/3 innings.

The problem for Varland (and arguably for the Twins, though it would qualify as a good problem from their side) is that his services aren’t necessarily needed in the starting rotation. Minnesota has seen what he brings to that group, and the best-case scenario has been an ERA around 4.00 in a small sample size. At this point, it’s hard not to lean on the triple-digit fastball and see what he can do, again, in short bursts.

Varland worked 12 innings in relief down the stretch last season. He made his first appearance on Sept. 6, and posted a 1.50 ERA, Owning a 17/1 K/BB out of the bullpen, the traditional starter simply let it fly and destroyed the opposition. This year, Minnesota needed relief help at the deadline, and ownership allowed Derek Falvey only enough leeway to grab Trevor Richards. Brock Stewart is now back on the injured list, and Josh Staumont has been cut. If there is a time to insert internal talent, it’s now.

In a perfect world, Varland would probably be a starter. It’s a more lucrative path, and something that could create longevity. However, he also has top-tier sheer stuff in relief, and Minnesota could use his abilities there right now. The rotation has options (in the form of David Festa, Randy Dobnak, and Zebby Matthews). Even if Chris Paddack doesn’t return for the club, starting depth gets less valuable in the postseason.

As the calendar turns to August, turning Varland loose in the bullpen makes sense. Wasting his bullets as a minor-league starter makes less, unless you're severely down on Festa and Matthews. If Varland transitions to the bullpen for St. Paul, or immediately finds himself promoted to Minnesota, the pitcher and big-league club both stand to benefit.

When Varland was originally demoted, it was because nothing was working. At this point, he has found success; everything is clicking. Allow him a chance to put it all together, and watch Rocco Baldelli roll out the best group he has had all season.