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    How Improved Are the AL’s Other Playoff Contenders Following the MLB Trade Deadline?


    Cody Christie

    MLB’s trade deadline has passed, and some contenders have made blockbuster moves, while other clubs are focused more on internal options to improve their rosters. Let’s examine the AL’s ever-changing playoff picture to see how the Twins stack up.

    Image courtesy of © Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

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    The Twins have two paths to the playoffs. The AL Central title is still in reach, but the club can also qualify as one of the three Wild Card teams on the junior circuit. Minnesota has been behind Cleveland in the division for most of the season, but the Guardians showed some weaknesses in July. However, Cleveland isn’t the only team that Twins fans need to keep their eye on in the coming weeks. Let’s break down the AL Central and Wild Card race.

    AL Central Race (Record, Games Ahead/Behind the Twins)
    Cleveland Guardians (65-42, +6.5)
    Trade Deadline Additions: OF Lane Thomas, RHP Alex Cobb

    Cleveland continues to outshoot their expectations with the AL’s best record. The Twins have played well since their terrible 7-13 record to start the season, but continue to be behind the Guardians. Cleveland has an even tighter payroll than the Twins, making adding impact players at the trade deadline difficult. Their farm system has dropped on national rankings, and Twins fans might have hoped that the Guardians would go all-in by the deadline. However, that didn’t happen, and now it looks like a three-team race for the division title. 

    Kansas City Royals (59-49, 0.0)
    Trade Deadline Additions: RHP Michael Lorenzen, RHP Lucas Erceg, SS Paul DeJong

    Kansas City surprised many by spending big this winter on Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo, Will Smith, Hunter Renfroe, Chris Stratton, and Garrett Hampson. This was a team that lost 106 games last season, and these additions would only slightly move the needle. Instead, Kansas City started the season on a hot streak by winning over 60% of their games in April and May. Adding the players above helps with Kansas City’s depth, and it could move the needle in the AL Central race--or at least keep them in the Wild Card hunt. 

    AL Wild Card Race (Record, Games Ahead/Behind the Twins)
    New York Yankees (64-45, +4.5)
    Trade Deadline Additions: OF Jazz Chisholm Jr., RHP Enyel De Los Santos, RHP Thomas Balboni Jr., RHP Mark Leiter Jr.

    New York missed the playoffs last season, which the front office wanted to avoid in 2024. The Yankees made the most significant trade of the winter, acquiring Juan Soto in his final year before free agency. Yankees GM Brian Cashman addressed some of the team’s weaknesses by acquiring the players listed above at the deadline. Can New York hunt down Baltimore and win the AL East? Otherwise, the Twins might be forced to go to Yankee Stadium for a Wild Card match-up.

    Boston Red Sox (56-50, -2.0)
    Trade Deadline Additions: RHP Quinn Priester, RHP Luis García, RHP Lucas Sims

    Boston is in third place in the AL East, but only one game behind Kansas City for the final playoff spot. Many projection models had the Red Sox pegged as the worst team in the division, especially since the team finished 23 games out of first place in 2023. Jarren Duran has played at an MVP level, and other players have compiled surprise performances to keep Boston in the race. There will be some key AL East games in the weeks ahead to decide who wins the division and who earns a Wild Card spot.  

    Seattle Mariners (57-52, -2.5)
    Trade Deadline Additions: OF Randy Arozarena, RHP Yimi Garcia, DH Justin Turner, RHP JT Chargois

    Seattle made aggressive moves early in the trade deadline cycle to bolster the outfield and pitching staff. Last season, the Mariners missed the playoffs despite boasting a better record than Minnesota's. Clearly, the front office is trying to avoid last season’s shortcomings. Seattle has struggled since the All-Star Break, but is clearly in the mix for the last Wild Card spot. 

    Tampa Bay Rays (55-52, -3.5)
    Trade Deadline Additions: INF Christopher Morel, RHP Hunter Bigge, OF Dylan Carlson,

    Tampa Bay is close to a Wild Card spot, but they traded away multiple big-league pieces, including Isaac Paredes, Randy Arozarena, Zach Eflin, and Jason Adam. The Rays have been run like this for quite some time, with the front office trading away MLB pieces to rebuild the farm system. It will be interesting to see if Tampa Bay can stay in the race with new faces populating their roster. 


    Which teams are the biggest threats to the Twins? What will it take for Minnesota to track down Cleveland for the AL Central title? Leave a comment to start the discussion.

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    3 hours ago, Brandon said:

    The Royals didn’t promote a Wallner level hitter though.  I think he is a much more exciting addition.  Festa has had 2 good appearances in a row after the first two where he gave up runs but still pitched 5 innings to save the pen some.  We have better internal reinforcements than anyone as we also have the return of Odyssey… Randy Dobnak.  

    I'm still not quite sure what kind of player is goibg to be about wallner  , yes when he connects it is impressive the power he has , but the strikeouts give me concern , he has been better of late  ...

    The regression of Julien and wallner this spring  , but others were off to a slow start  too  ...

    Since we didn't make any addional  players , I would like to advocate keirsey Jr  and severino  be given a look at solidify our lineup with consistency  ...

    Nice to see dobnak make it back  , let's hope his story continues   ,  Festa has 4 starts , no opinion  on him ...

    Kansas city  addressed pitching needs last off season and the deadline  and the off season additions helped them get to the deadline  and then make additional pitching additions , there is not to many names on their pitching staff that was there last year  ...

    As I stated,  the Royals and fans have to feel pretty good about at least a wild card or maybe the divisional winner chance , their odds went up   ...

    Pitching is what wins games and the royals certainlyhave improved their's , not saying we don't have good pitching , I like our top 3 starters , a good lefthander would have been a nice addition 

    4 minutes ago, Blyleven2011 said:

    I'm still not quite sure what kind of player is goibg to be about wallner  , yes when he connects it is impressive the power he has , but the strikeouts give me concern , he has been better of late  ...

    The regression of Julien and wallner this spring  , but others were off to a slow start  too  ...

    Since we didn't make any addional  players , I would like to advocate keirsey Jr  and severino  be given a look at solidify our lineup with consistency  ...

    Nice to see dobnak make it back  , let's hope his story continues   ,  Festa has 4 starts , no opinion  on him ...

    Kansas city  addressed pitching needs last off season and the deadline  and the off season additions helped them get to the deadline  and then make additional pitching additions , there is not to many names on their pitching staff that was there last year  ...

    As I stated,  the Royals and fans have to feel pretty good about at least a wild card or maybe the divisional winner chance , their odds went up   ...

    Pitching is what wins games and the royals certainlyhave improved their's , not saying we don't have good pitching , I like our top 3 starters , a good lefthander would have been a nice addition 

    I agree that a good lefthander would be nice, but the Twins retained or readdressed their depth and signed Santana and a few relievers.  It’s nice to see the Woods-Richardson develop into that 4th starter and it looks like Festa, or Paddack, or Mathew’s or Dobnak could be that 5th starter.  I like we have options that all deserve a chance.  Also Varland but I think it’s time to either move to the pen or in a trade..

    2 minutes ago, Brandon said:

    I agree that a good lefthander would be nice, but the Twins retained or readdressed their depth and signed Santana and a few relievers.  It’s nice to see the Woods-Richardson develop into that 4th starter and it looks like Festa, or Paddack, or Mathew’s or Dobnak could be that 5th starter.  I like we have options that all deserve a chance.  Also Varland but I think it’s time to either move to the pen or in a trade..

    Yes santana has turned out to be a good clutch hitter and mvp worthy defense  , not bad for an aging veteran that is playing like a youngster  , I'd start thinking of an extension  for santana  , he's definitely strengthened first base  ...

    1 year with a 2nd year option ... 

    Let's get the pen back to where it was at the end of last season  , minus Stewart  who is injured and may not pitch again this year  , seems like he takes forever to heal after being out on the IL list  ...

    SWR has pitched better than anyone' imagined , but can he maintain the endurance , he did finish strong last season in AAA  , so that is encouraging , as far as the 5th starter goes it's going to be a team effort  , I really want paddack if healthy and varland in the pen  like last year  ...

    On 8/1/2024 at 10:55 AM, bean5302 said:

    Looking at the list is a little unsettling right now. The Twins aren't in as good of a position as I had expected them to be by now. We're probably not going to catch the Yankees for WC1, and beating the seemingly ever impossibly lucky Guardians feels a bit unlikely now. Fangraphs has the Twins at 80% to make the playoffs, but just 22% to win the division.

    WC2 & 3 are tied with the Twins and Royals.

    Seattle (and Houston) and Boston are in striking range of a wild card berth and the Rays aren't totally out of it yet, though they totally raised the white flag so the likelihood of them hanging around is low.
    https://www.mlb.com/standings/wild-card/league

    4 potential spots for the Twins to make the playoffs. 6 teams vying for them.

    That's a really interesting odds summary.  It really gets to the core of the discussion here of the impact of what they did or did not do on the likelihood of winning the WS.  The Twins had a 6.3% chance of winning the WS before the deadline moves.  You are good with numbers and analysis.  How much would you estimate the Twins odds would have gone up had they traded for say Kikuchi and Scott?    

    6 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

    That's a really interesting odds summary.  It really gets to the core of the discussion here of the impact of what they did or did not do on the likelihood of winning the WS.  The Twins had a 6.3% chance of winning the WS before the deadline moves.  You are good with numbers and analysis.  How much would you estimate the Twins odds would have gone up had they traded for say Kikuchi and Scott?    

    Not much, IMHO. I don't believe in Kikuchi at all as a playoff guy. I'd rather have Lopez, Ryan and Ober on the bump, and I'd suspect most models would feel neutralish as well. My feeling was the Twins needed an "ace" to significantly improve their odds. Scott's great, but how much a lefty reliever impacts the Twins chances is pretty debatable if they're in the hole after the starter walks off the field after the 5th or 6th inning. I believe in Jhoan Duran, Jorge Alcala, and Griffin Jax. I think the Twins have the power in the bullpen they need to keep close games from getting away from them in the playoffs.




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