Dollars Make Sense For 2018 Twins

Following a 2017 season in which Paul Molitor’s club made a somewhat unexpected postseason berth, it’s apparent that 2016 was no more than growing pains for a core that is still coming into their own. After bursting onto the scene in 2015, regression and development plagued many of the Twins future stars during the 2016 downturn. Now as more established big league players, the focus should be on capitalizing upon the opportunity that the AL Central has laid out for the hometown nine.

Derek Falvey’s former organization, the Cleveland Indians, is really the only competition within the division, and that appears to be the case for the immediate future. As the window of competitiveness opens for the Twins, a division title or deep playoff run could again be within their sights. The new front office seems to view this reality in a favorable fashion as well.

Going into the offseason, the most desirable add was once again going to come on the mound. After finishing 29th in team ERA during the 2016 season, Minnesota jumped back into competitiveness by posting the 19th best mark in the big leagues. That still leaves plenty to be desired, but as divisional foes not named Cleveland came in behind them, Molitor’s group was able to capitalize.

In order to run down Terry Francona’s squad, overtake them, and make any real waves in the fall, Falvey and Thad Levine needed to bring in reinforcements this winter. The bullpen has been overhauled with nice veteran pieces on one-year deals (Zach Duke and Fernando Rodney), as well as a big get in the former of Addison Reed (2 years, $16.75m). Given the depth and emergence of young arms in relief, it stands to reason Minnesota is done there out of the pen, but the main focus of a starting arm remains.

That leads us to taking a look at the total bill. Prior to the acquisition of Reed, Minnesota was on track for a payroll near $98 million. Factoring in the roughly $4 million Kyle Gibson will be given, as well as the $8+ million that Reed gets this season, the Twins are looking at a mark of something like $110 million. Over the course of their history, the 2011 payroll of $112.7 million is a club record, and they’ve been below the $100 million plateau in four of the past six years. While you can dissect that how you will, it makes a good deal of sense.

Outside of 2016, there was never a point at which the Twins should’ve viewed themselves as a contender from 2011 onwards. Yes, Target Field is a nice stadium and it helps to generate revenue, but it’s TV contracts that trump all when it comes to payroll. Minnesota spends in the bracket it does because the deal with Fox Sports North is hardly lucrative compared across the landscape of the big league. With that being said, a down season should not also be an expensive one.

In 2012-2014, the Twins made loses 90+ games a yearly ritual. To think that spending an exorbitant amount of money in the offseason was going to reverse course would’ve been a fool’s errand. In 2015, the club was seeing a top MLB farm system begin to bear fruit. Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano, and Eddie Rosario all got their first licks at the highest level, despite still being young kids. The 83 wins were a nice result, but volatility in youth is a real thing, and that fact couldn’t have been truer in the year ahead.

Now in 2017, the fruit from that farm system overflow has become an established set of big league regulars. Buxton, Sano, Rosario, Jose Berrios, and Max Kepler are all here to stay. They can be counted upon on a nightly basis when in the lineup, and while they’ll still be developing, are no longer wide-eyed ballplayers just taking it in. The development of that internal core presents the first half of the argument for Derek Falvey and Thad Levine to build and supplement.

The other part of the equation comes in the form of outsiders and financial flexibility. Glen Perkins has announced his retirement, Joe Mauer is in line for free agency, and the combination of Phil Hughes and Ervin Santana isn’t far behind. With something like $30 million committed to the 2019 roster at this point, Minnesota has more than ample ability to spend. Combining that with the decline of the division, the Twins have found a perfect storm.

Under the fair assumption that the Twins are still targeting a top of the rotation starter, they are looking at a 2018 payroll near $130 million (should it be Darvish) or $120 million (should it be Lynn, Cobb, or Arrieta). That number will pop off the page as a franchise record, and a significant leap from previously expected norms. While it’s fair to look at the figure in that context, it’s also not surprising in the least. Inflation has been avoided as the payroll has reflected a true talent level, and an era of competitive baseball has now finally fostered an environment in which spending becomes sensible.

For as far back as I can remember the idea that Minnesota is cheap has been a lazy way to circumvent the factual narratives jumping off the page. For those staring at the bottom line without context, 2018 should be a nice shove-it moment in which the money spent falls in line with fans' desires. Should Minnesota’s payroll come in at the marks noted above, they’d find themselves right in the middle of big league spending, around the Houston Astros and Cleveland Indians. That’s hardly a bad place to be.