Cody Bellinger Would Fill Several Twins Needs

Recent reports of Diamond Sports Group’s new deal with Amazon has Twins fans like me hopeful the payroll restraints will lift in the very near future. If they do, there’s no better play on the market than 28-year-old former MVP, Cody Bellinger. 

The Twins still need to find a way to replace Sonny Gray’s 184 excellent innings, and it’d behoove them to add another reliever, but the most pressing questions reside at first base and in center field. Alex Kirilloff, who I still believe can be a cornerstone player, isn’t a reliable bet for even 100 starts at first base. He’s logged just 192 games in three years, and unfortunately hasn’t yet matched the prospect hype, with a 104 OPS+ and a career fWAR total of 0.5.

Almost every report on Byron Buxton is that he’s trending toward being the Opening Day starter in center. Prior to a down offensive season, he hit 70 homers in 279 games from 2021 to 2023 with an OPS that was 36 percent better than league average. A return to elite form isn’t at all out of the question. We’re all hoping that bears out, but the Twins still need a Michael A. Taylor-esque insurance plan, no matter how good Buxton feels come February, March, and April. 

If the Pohlads give approval for unexpected late spending this winter, I’d set my sights mostly on Bellinger. He hit .307, with the lowest strikeout rate of his career (15.7%); slugged .525 with 29 doubles and 26 homers; drove in 97 runs; and went 20-for-26 in stolen base attempts, on a one-year pillow contract with the Cubs. At 28 years old, he’s won NL Rookie of the Year, an MVP, and two Silver Sluggers. He’d bring even more playoff experience (69 games) to a Twins nucleus that feels close to breaking through in October.  

Rhys Hoskins is suitable at first, assuredly cheaper, and comparable offensively, but he doesn’t play center field. Bellinger has contributed 13 Outs Above Average in center since 2021. He was also excellent against both righties and lefties in 2023, which should be exceedingly attractive for the Twins. Taylor, who ranks first in OAA among center fielders over the last three seasons, is limited at the plate, and struggled to a .641 OPS with a 34% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers last year. 

Bellinger isn’t without risk. There’s a reason he and his agent Scott Boras only netted a one-year deal last winter, albeit for $17.5 million. The previously elite Dodger was OK during the 2020 COVID season, horrific in 2021, and somewhere in between in 2022. His fall from prolific young slugger to Dave Roberts’s bench was hard to compute. Injuries, specifically a recurring right shoulder problem, could’ve been the culprit. The dip is the sole reason Bellinger didn't get over $300 million last offseason.

This inconsistency rears its head in FanGraphs’s 2024 ZiPS projections, cooked up by Dan Szymborski. The system has Bellinger taking a big step back in the power department (.441 SLG), likely due to the stark difference in his expected and actual numbers in 2023. His .370 wOBA (weighted on base average) was 43 points better than his expected mark based on batted-ball data. That tied him with Adam Duvall as the fifth-“luckiest” hitter among qualifiers last year. Szymborski still projects Bellinger for an above-average offensive season and a respectable 2.7 Wins Above Replacement.

One could argue Jordan Montgomery or Blake Snell would better fit the Twins’ needs. Starting pitching was why the Twins survived the first half of offensive ineptitude, and Pablo López needs a new sidekick. History tells us what Derek Falvey and Co. are much more likely to do, and we’ve never seen them spend more than $20 million on a starting pitcher in free agency. What we have seen, time and time again, is investment in impact position players. The Twins spent over $235 million to sign and retain Carlos Correa, and another $100 million to extend Buxton. Follow the money to predict the future.

Jon Becker at FanGraphs crowdsourced Bellinger’s projected contract for six years and $144 million, the highest among remaining free agents. FanGraphs projects the Twins’ current payroll at $124 million, so a Bellinger addition at $24M per year with no other additions or subtractions would put them at $148 million, still $11 million shy of where they finished 2023. There's always a chance, too, that they still trade a Max Kepler or a Jorge Polanco, thereby coming back down below $140 million even with Bellinger on board.

The roster needs someone who can not only play center and first base, but do it at a high level. While I’m less concerned about the Twins' propensity to strike out than some, Bellinger’s batting average and elite contact ability in 2023 has to be appealing. His 20 steals and career 80-percent success rate added to a lineup lacking speed is a box checked. His somewhat moderate price tag, given his track record and age, is another. 

Bellinger and the Twins are a perfect match.

Do you agree? If there is more to spend than expected, how do you want the team to do it? Speak up in the comments, and let's see whether the unexpected involvement of Amazon gets the Twins moving.