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    Clutch Joe Mauer Is Suddenly An RBI Machine


    Ted Schwerzler

    In the dead of the Pittsburgh night, late in the game (the top of the 13th inning to be exact), Joe Mauer did something that he had abandoned since August 17, 2014. With Antonio Bastardo on the mound, Mauer deposited a pitch over the right-center field wall at PNC Bank stadium. The Twins went on to win the game by a tally of 4-3. The home run was the shot that lifted Minnesota over the Pirates, but for Joe, it really doesn't matter.

    Image courtesy of Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

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    The home run off of Bastardo ended a 286 at-bat homerless drought for Mauer. Statistically speaking, the corner infield spots are traditionally held down by hulking home run hitters who drive the ball to all fields. Power has generally not been part of Mauer's game (just 37 HR since 2010), and still isn't, but Mauer has reinvented himself and is bringing new value to the role.

    Often regarded as an opposite field hitter (outside of his relative reliability at pulling ground balls) Mauer has used all fields incredibly well in 2015. He is currently pulling 31.5% of his batted balls, while going up the middle with 35.4%, and hitting to the opposite field 33.1% of the time. A career 28.8% pull hitter, he has more evenly used all fields in 2015.

    Although Mauer is more evenly distributing his hits, the number is falling and providing fewer total bases. That can likely be explained by his hard hit percentage. Owner of a career 33.6% hard hit percentage, Mauer is hitting just 23.6% of his batted balls hard this year. While his medium hits are at 59.1% (as opposed to a career 56.7%), his soft hits are also significantly up at 17.3% (career 9.7).

    The most visible place these numbers have shown up is in the number of doubles. With eight total through the first quarter of the season, reaching his career-high 43 will require a few more balls driven to the gaps. However, Mauer does have two triples already this season, matching his 2014 total.

    And yet, may be on pace for one of his best offensive seasons in recent memory. Home runs aside, he is driving the Twins offense right now, quite literally.

    Leading the club in runs batted in with 24, Mauer is blistering past his 2014 pace (which ended with 55 RBI). Mauer's previous career high in runs batted in came during his 2009 AL MVP season, in which he drove in 96 runs. As it stands now, he's on pace to even that mark. Mauer driving in runs is a by-product of his success in high leverage situations this season, and his success is astounding.

    A large portion of being a talented hitter is situational hitting. While Mauer's .284/.341/.381 slash line leaves room for improvement, it's tough to argue with what he's done in high leverage situations. In 2015 with runners on base, Mauer is hitting .382/.463/.485 and with runners in scoring position he's even better, .419/.500/.512. Taking it one step further, Mauer is 4-5 with a triple and eight RBI with the bases loaded in, equating to a 2.000 OPS. Driving runners around and putting the Twins on the board is no doubt among the most important offensive feats, no matter how that is accomplished.

    Now that we've established why Mauer's lack of home runs doesn't really matter, it's probably a good time to suggest things could continue to get even better. Hoping that Mauer's overall slash line reverts back towards his career numbers is not an unreasonable hope.

    Last season, Mauer didn't hit .300 in any single month until September. In 2015, Mauer's April line checked in at .318/.392/.412. He's struggled at the plate in May (outside of those high leverage situations), but it's pretty apparent that a healthy Mauer can still hit. As the summer wears on, it should be expected that Mauer will hit at a better than average clip.

    This Twins team is in a good place right now, and with key additions coming as the season goes on, they are in position to keep getting better. The sixth best offense in baseball is continuing to push runs across at a strong clip, and Joe Mauer is a big reason for it, despite the lack of home runs.

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    Mauer's got an sOPS+ (which is OPS + relative to the league) of 158 with men on (and 175 with RISP which might be more applicable since we are talking about RBI).  Remember league average is 100.

     

    So, while I'd disagree with the idea that Mauer has only been a bit better with men on, I'd agree with the part that it can't last because it's so high. 

     

    And we need to remember, severe short sample size. It's only 52 PAs.

    Edited by jimmer

     

    Mauer's got an sOPS+ (which is OPS + relative to the league) of 158 with men on (and 175 with RISP which might be more applicable since we are talking about RBI).  Remember league average is 100.

     

    So, while I'd disagree with the idea that Mauer has only been a bit better with men on, I'd agree with the part that it can't last because it's so high. 

     

    And we need to remember, severe short sample size. It's only 52 PAs.

    SSS, in which his BABIP is .464. Again, grounder to the left side = 3 RBI.

     

    SSS, in which his BABIP is .464. Again, grounder to the left side = 3 RBI.

    I went out of my way to say it was a severe short sample size, and he beat the shift on the hit, which he should get some credit for.  Again, I don't overly care about the RBI stat (actually, practically not at all), my post was talking about how he performed in those situations (men on and men is scoring position) in regards to OPS relative to the league.  RBI isn't part of OPS, so knock him for getting 3 RBI, fine, but that's more a shot on overvaluing the RBI as a way to evaluate a player than anything else, not a shot in how he performed with men on or men with RISP.

    Edited by jimmer

     

    I went out of my way to say it was a severe short sample size, and he beat the shift on the hit, which he should get some credit for.  Again, I don't overly care about the RBI stat (actually, practically not at all), my post was talking about how he performed in those situations (men on and men is scoring position) in regards to OPS relative to the league.  RBI isn't part of OPS, so knock him for getting 3 RBI, fine, but that's more a shot on overvaluing the RBI as a way to evaluate a player than anything else, not a shot in how he performed with men on or men with RISP.

    Understood. My first comment was directed at the perception that has dogged Mauer, discussed earlier in the thread, that he's not clutch. Perhaps I should have been clearer. In this particular stretch  of 52 PAs it seems to be he's been exceptionally lucky, in addition to clutch, and that has allowed him to stockpile RBI (the thread being about Mauer's RBI).

     

    I don't buy the conclusion of the article at all. Any article that says power does not matter at all, well, I am not buying that.

     

    He's just not good compared to other 1B right now. Can that change? Can he get back to elite hitter status? I don't believe it, but I would give him the year to prove me wrong. If he's not MUCH better at the end of the year, I approach him about taking early retirement. Because you are not SUPER likely to win with a 1B that doesn't hit well, and they aren't benching him while he is on the roster.

    There are tradeoffs with power, OBP and average.   I have stated I don't care if he ever hits another homer as long as he bats .320 gets on .400 and hits a lot of doubles.    I agree his current production does not overcome his lack of power.    I am not giving up hope on him getting back to elite but am not real confident that trying to pull the ball will get him there.    I am not really sold on the idea that hitting from the 1B spot is much different than any other.   If he plays good D and is better than the next option and is better than 2/3 of the other hitters is enough of a standard. for him to be out there.  Of course as the rest of the guys get better it becomes a higher standard.    We agree he needs to do better than he has so far.    I am really hoping that .400 BA for a month is still in him.

    Success breeds success. Mauer's numbers looked better earlier in his career in part because he was on better teams. This isn't to say He hasn't declined but I believe part of his decline is lack of hitting around him the last few years. I don't believe he will ever be what he once was but a return to health and the progression of youth I believe is also part of his rebounding numbers.

    I kind of wonder how shifting is going to affect BABIP. I think teams shift b/c the assume Mauer will always go the opposite way. If he continues to pull it, those shifts will stop, but until then, those will go for hits far more often than not.

     

    I kind of wonder how shifting is going to affect BABIP. I think teams shift b/c the assume Mauer will always go the opposite way. If he continues to pull it, those shifts will stop, but until then, those will go for hits far more often than not.

    he's being shifted to pull nowadays though due to his approach early in the season, right? Or is that just in the IF.  In any even, he's pulled more than he's gone opposite field this year, I believe.




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