Cardinals 3, Twins 2: Key Error Dooms Twins in 9th, Cardinals Take Series

Box Score:
Starting Pitcher: Zebby Matthews: 5 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 7 K (86 Pitches, 57 Strikes, 66.2%)
Home Runs: Willi Castro (11)
Bottom 3 WPA: Jhoan Duran (-.658), Austin Martin (-.294), Manuel Margot (-.160)
Win Probability Chart (Via Fangraphs):

I was in attendance for Friday's 6-1 loss to the Cardinals, and although it was not a particularly poorly played game by the Twins, it was about as bad a viewing experience as one could get. One thing the Rocco Baldelli-led Twins have been good at, however, is bouncing back from embarrassing or gut-punch losses, and they certainly accomplished that against Sonny Gray on Saturday. With the AL Central race tightening with Cleveland's poor play and the Royals' recent surge, winning a home series against a dysfunctional Cardinals team was imperative.

Zebby Matthews gave his best effort. The rookie righthander struck out six batters through three innings, showcasing his slider as a viable out pitch against both lefties and righties. He allowed leadoff singles in the second and third, but struck out Lars Nootbar on a tight slider to end the second, and got Matt Carpenter to pop out to end the third.

Opposing Matthews was Erick Fedde, who had dominated the Twins in his two starts with the White Sox and was acquired for a hefty price by the Cardinals at the trade deadline. Fedde hasn't been great since switching uniforms, with his middling strikeout rate dropping to 15.8% as a Cardinal and his ERA at nearly 5.00. He began his day by trying to sneak a cutter inside to leadoff hitter Willi Castro, and Castro yanked it 417 feet onto the pavilion in right field.

The Twins quieted down after that. Edouard Julien led off the third with a base hit, but Austin Martin rapped into a double play, with second baseman Brendan Donovan making a slick play to graze the base with his foot as he fired to first. Minnesota loaded the bases in the fourth, with José Miranda being hit by a pitch, followed by two-out walks to Ryan Jeffers and Carlos Santana. Manuel Margot, starting in place of the injured Max Kepler, swung through a high fastball to end the threat.

Matthews was cruising for a while. After a 1-2-3 fourth inning, he got two quick outs in the fifth, bringing up rookie center fielder Victor Scott II. Scott is fast and looks good in center, but he was hitting .219 in Triple A, and .147 in the majors. He took a hack at a Matthews's slider, which the fellow rookie left up in the zone, and demolished it--to everyone's surprise, including Scott's. It looked kind of like a golfer who had been hitting their driver in the woods all day, so they just decide to swing as hard as they can and somehow it ends up right down the middle.

Meanwhile, Fedde was really settling in, and benefiting from a fairly wide strike zone. He used his sinker to induce ground balls, while Twins hitters were happy to pop up and/or get jammed on his cutter. He left a few offspeed and breaking pitches in the zone, but only when the Twins hitter was looking for the sinker or cutter. It was a really nice performance for the former first-round pick, who ended up having his first taste of success in Korea, and who began the year pitching for (perhaps) the worst team in history. He then gets traded to one of the more respected franchises in sports, only for them to immediately free-fall out of contention.

The Twins were certainly happy to see him exit the game following the sixth. Andrew Kittredge, who has had closing experience with some good Rays teams of recent memory, allowed one-out singles to Margot and Julien, putting runners on the corners with one out. Martin has been swinging it well lately (.346/.414/.462 line in August), but quickly grounded into his second double play of the day.

After a strong two scoreless innings from Cole Sands, the Twins turned to Griffin Jax for the eighth, who struck out two in a brief 1-2-3 inning. That's well and good, but it likely means that the Twins will be without Sands, Duran and Jax for the first game of the Atlanta series, so expect a lot of Jorge Alcalá and Caleb Thielbar.

Facing an effective lefty reliever in JoJo Romero in the eighth, Castro started the frame with a walk. Royce Lewis was called upon to pinch hit for Trevor Larnach and wasted no time, crushing an 0-1 change-up 107 MPH into the left-center gap to score Castro and regain the lead.

After a fly ball from Miranda that moved Lewis to third, the Twins had a golden opportunity to add some insurance. Kyle Famer was called to pinch-hit for Matt Wallner, and the Cardinals countered by bringing in a right-hander, Shawn Armstrong. This decision could be questioned, since Wallner has been hitting, and Romero had been struggling. Instead, you have a cold Farmer facing a fresh Armstrong with a key run on third. Famer ended up popping out on one pitch, and Ryan Jeffers then grounded out to end the threat.

Jhoan Duran came out for the ninth, and started by striking out Carpenter on a 99-MPH fastball. Then the fun started. Nolan Arenado singled off of Julien's glove, and Donovan tapped a two-hopper to Julien in the next at-bat. Going for the force out at second, Julien threw wide. The ball sailed into left field, putting runners at second and third with just one out. Facing Tommy Pham, Duran buried two splitters to get ahead in the count, and locked Pham up with a curveball right down Broadway. It was an extraordinary recovery, in an at-bat where one could have made a fine case for just issuing a free pass.

Nootbar would not be so kind. He swung at a first pitch splitter up in the zone and bounced it through the hole the other way to score both baserunners, flipping the game and giving the Cardinals the lead.

Trends:

What’s Next: Bailey Ober (12-5, 3.54 ERA), looks to bounce back from a frustrating outing against San Diego, in which he was pinpoint and dominant until Manny Machado hit a two-run home run that tied the game. Ober will face Atlanta's Max Fried (7-7, 3.57 ERA), who has had a great career but has struggled with injuries in his final year before he enters free agency. and carries a 6.10 ERA for August. The Braves have been beset by an abnormal amount of injuries this year, and that has caused their performance to crater, though they remain in playoff position.

Postgame Interviews:

Bullpen Usage Chart: