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    5 Reasons You Should Love The Jaime Garcia Trade


    Nick Nelson

    Allow me to set the stage.

    The year is 2011, and a young left-hander by the name of Jaime Garcia is establishing himself as a frontline stud in the St. Louis Cardinals rotation. Fresh off a stellar campaign in 2010 that placed him third in Rookie of the Year balloting, behind Buster Posey and Jason Heyward, the 24-year-old Garcia made 32 starts, posting a 3.56 ERA and recording 13 wins for a second straight year.

    Image courtesy of Adam Hunger, USA Today

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    Wouldn't it be grand if that 2011 version of Garcia could re-emerge? Well, it's not likely. In five years since, he has undergone two major shoulder surgeries – for labrum and rotator cuff tears, then for thoracic outlet syndrome – while aging past 30.

    But you needn't dream so much to find plenty to like in Garcia, acquired from Atlanta on Monday along with minor-league catcher Anthony Recker, in exchange for 19-year-old Dominican right-hander Huascar Ynoa.

    It's not a blockbuster. It's not an all-in, pedal-to-the-medal move. It's not even as aggressive as the push as the similarly positioned Royals made on the same day.

    But there are five reasons I'm feeling really good about this trade for the Twins.

    1) Worm burner supreme: Garcia is an absolute ground ball machine

    He has a 56.4 percent career ground ball rate and has never wavered far from that mark. Whereas the Twins have long been enamored with guys who can "pitch down in the zone," their starters have rarely embodied a true GB pitcher prototype. Garcia annually posts grounder rates that stack up against the league's best.

    While this isn't necessarily ideal for a team much better in the outfield than the infield defensively, and the lack of strikeouts limits his ceiling, Garcia boasts a high floor. Pitchers who keep the ball on the ground so well don't give up many extra-base hits, and don't often unravel in short starts. (Only once in 18 turns this year has he failed to complete at least five innings.)

    The Twins were seeking that kind of stability rather than ace upside. They got it. And...

    2) The price was right: Minnesota acquired Garcia without giving up much

    Ynoa was interesting, to be sure. There's a reason the Twins paid a hefty $800,000 to sign him as a 16-year-old in 2014. But he hasn't advanced past rookie ball, didn't rank among Twins Daily's top 20 prospects heading into the season, and hasn't adjusted well to the Appy League, where he has a 5.26 ERA and 1.64 WHIP in six starts.

    Maybe he fills out, adds more velocity, refines his offspeed stuff, and turns into a quality starter. But he's basically a lotto ticket right now, and in comparison with last week's iteration of the Garcia trade, the Twins are swapping out Nick Burdi – who could be a dominating late-inning reliever in 2019 – for someone who might be a good MLB starter around 2021. For a club at the front end of a winning cycle, that's a good tradeoff.

    Ynoa was a small price to pay for a starter with Garcia's track record. Part of the reason Derek Falvey and Thad Levine were able to swing it might have been...

    3) Ponying up: The Twins are covering all the money

    Garcia, on a $12 million contract, is owed almost $5 million over the remainder of the season. In the days where they were more conscious of expenses, the Twins might have been inclined to throw in a better prospect in order to get the Braves to foot some of that bill. But by taking all of the salary obligation off Atlanta's ledger, they provided extra motivation to make a deal.

    It's not any huge investment, but backs up ownership's assertion that the new front office will be given financial flexibility to execute their plans. And for a franchise with the reputation this one has, it is pretty good optically.

    Speaking of good optics...

    4) Message delivered: Falvey and Levine are giving a vote of confidence

    The Twins are overperforming. No one expected them to be at this point, and objectively, they probably won't hang with the Indians (maybe not even the Royals) over the final two months.

    But the players on the roster have worked hard to get to this point. They aren't within a couple of games of first place in late July by accident. In going out and getting arguably the best rental starter on the market (outside of Yu Darvish, who may or may not actually be available), the new leaders are sending a message to this group:

    We believe in you. Here's some help. Now go get it.

    They are doing so in a responsible way – "measured," to borrow a term from Levine – but Garcia undoubtedly has a chance to make a significant impact, especially in light of what he's replacing. And to that end...

    5) Game on: The Twins just got more watchable, and more interesting

    Assuming Garcia can stay healthy (and that's not the lofty proposition it once was) this team will now have a much better chance of winning each fifth day. He pushes Hector Santiago out of the equation, and whether he takes the place of Bartolo Colon or Kyle Gibson, it's a substantial upgrade.

    With Garcia joining Ervin Santana, Jose Berrios and Adalberto Mejia, the Twins have a respectable starting four. And in the fifth spot, they at least have possibilities. Gibson seems to be coming around, and Stephen Gonsalves and Fernando Romero are looming in Double-A.

    From 103 losses to adding for the stretch run. And we're still at the front end of a contention window.

    Game on.

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    I didn't realize he was a Thoracic Outlet survivor!  I love the acquisition and the front office getting themselves in the mix, and sending a positive message to the players, etc.  

     

    BUT, fangraphs did a piece not long ago about Thoracic Outlet guys...the surgeries to fix this have been overwhelmingly unsuccessful in terms of pitcher success after recovery.  The idea of extending Jamie should be pondered cautiously...which I'm sure Falvey and co will do.  Just sayin'

     

    There are multiple TOS survivors who have been able to have a productive major league career after surgery. The surgery dates back multiple decades - it's just exploded in frequency in the last few years is all, so recent guys are more highlighted. Heck, some of the world's best volleyball players have TOS and come back to be Olympic athletes.

     

    Well if you are buying Gray for next year, why not just wait until the off-season when he'll be cheaper?

    Also, there were a lot of people on here during the Garcia speculation saying they wouldn't object if the price was Thorpe or Garver! I'd call trading either of those players mortgaging the future for sure.

    A) he might not be available

    B-) why not get an additional 2 months use out of him since the price will be in the same ballpark?

    Edited by kab21

    A) he might not be available

     

    B-) why not get an additional 2 months use out of him since the price will be in the same ballpark?

    A) Anything is possible, but i would think if he's available now he's available in the off-season.

     

    B) I think the price would be significantly greater at the deadline. Not only is he controlled longer, which gives him more value, but the deadline premium is real, IMO.

     

    A) Anything is possible, but i would think if he's available now he's available in the off-season.

    :cool: I think the price would be significantly greater at the deadline. Not only is he controlled longer, which gives him more value, but the deadline premium is real, IMO.

    Why would a team that trades for Gray trade him away this offseason? There is a good chance that he is traded this deadline.

    I think you vastly overstate significantly. The price now or later starts with Gordon and likely includes one of Gonsalves/Romero/Jorge. The reason to wait until the offseason is if you want to center the trade around Lewis since the Twins don't really have a 2nd best prospect that can headline a big trade like this until then.




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