2017 Twins Player Predictions: Brian Dozier

So what will 2017 look like for Brian Dozier? Can he come anywhere near replicating those numbers? Below you will find my predictions (or guesses, if you prefer) for Brian Dozier’s 2017 season. Consider posting your thoughts and your predictions into the comments below. It’s always fun to take a look at the end of the season and see how our predictions look.

KEY NUMBERS

15.3% - According to FanGraphs, Dozier hit the ball to the opposite field just 15.3% of the time, down from 15.6% of the time in 2016. The message to Dozier (from many) early in the season was that he needed to use the whole field. And while that’s never bad advice, Brian Dozier is an extreme pull hitter and that is where he finds the vast majority of his success.

$47.2 million - FanGraphs also provides a “Value” to each player for their season. Base on fWAR, they calculate how much that player’s season was worth. Brian Dozier’s 2016 season was worth $47.2 million. (5.9 fWAR) Over this past four seasons, Dozier has been worth a total of $127.9 million. Dozier is in Year 3 of a four year, $20 million contract that bought out his arbitration years.

PREDICTIONS

Brian Dozier: 574 at-bats, .261/.328/.458 (.786), 37 doubles, 2 triples, 24 home runs.

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Over the past three years, Brian Dozier has averaged 156 games played. I believe there is benefit to giving him a few extra days off, but I think Dozier’s going to want to play as much as possible. I have him at 152 games, so a few extra days off. I’m not going to put Dozier at 42 home runs again, in fact, not all that close. But I have his walk total increasing and I anticipate a lot more doubles.

I don’t even try to pretend to calculate Runs scored or RBI, but Dozier can pretty much be relied on to score 100 runs. If he’s leading off, he’ll likely end up in the 87-80 RBI range. If he were to his 3rd or 4th, I think he’d surpass 100 RBI.

YOUR TURN

Your turn. Share your thoughts on and predictions on Brian Dozier in 2017. We can take a look back at the end of the season and see how we did.

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