The Twins Have Had Mixed Results With Their Previous Qualifying Offers

[Cody Christie]

The Minnesota Twins have extended Ryan Jeffers a qualifying offer worth $23.15 million for the 2027 season. The veteran catcher now has until November 17 to decide whether to accept the one-year offer or decline it and pursue a potentially lucrative, long-term contract in free agency.

Jeffers is coming off another productive offensive season and is one of the most intriguing catchers available on the open market. Minnesota would certainly welcome his return, but the qualifying offer also protects the organization if he decides to sign elsewhere. If Jeffers declines and signs with another team, the Twins will receive draft-pick compensation.

This isn't the first time Minnesota has used the qualifying offer to navigate an important free-agent decision. The organization has made the offer to two players in recent years, with very different results.

Jake Odorizzi Accepted the Qualifying Offer

The Twins acquired Jake Odorizzi from the Tampa Bay Rays before the 2018 season. He quickly became a reliable member of Minnesota's rotation, making 32 starts and posting a 4.49 ERA during his first season with the organization.

Odorizzi took another step forward in 2019. He made 30 starts, recorded a 3.51 ERA, and earned his first career All-Star selection. His performance made him an important part of a Twins team that won 101 games and captured the American League Central title.

Minnesota wanted to keep the right-hander around, so the organization extended him a $17.8 million qualifying offer following the 2019 campaign. Odorizzi accepted, giving the Twins another season with an established starting pitcher.

Unfortunately, the decision didn't work out as planned. The 2020 season was shortened to 60 games because of the COVID-19 pandemic, and Odorizzi struggled to find consistency. He made only four starts, finishing with a 6.59 ERA across 13 2/3 innings. Injuries also limited his availability, and he never looked like the pitcher who had earned an All-Star selection the previous season.

Odorizzi's struggles were particularly disappointing because Minnesota was trying to build on its 2019 success. The Twins reached the postseason again in 2020, but their rotation needed more dependable performances. The qualifying offer gave Odorizzi a substantial one-year payday, but it ultimately became an expensive season for Minnesota without the expected production.

Sonny Gray Turned Down the Offer

Minnesota's next qualifying offer decision came after the 2023 season. Sonny Gray had delivered one of the best seasons of his career, making him a logical candidate for the offer. Gray finished second in American League Cy Young voting after posting a 2.79 ERA across 32 starts. He also recorded 183 strikeouts in 184 innings, helping lead Minnesota's rotation during a season that ended with the organization winning its first postseason series since 2002.

The Twins extended Gray a $20.325 million qualifying offer. However, unlike Odorizzi, the veteran right-hander decided to test free agency. Gray didn't have to wait long to find his next opportunity. He agreed to a three-year, $75 million contract with the St. Louis Cardinals, giving him a substantial multiyear commitment instead of accepting Minnesota's one-year offer.

Although the Twins lost a key member of their rotation, the qualifying offer provided an important benefit. Minnesota received a compensatory draft selection after Gray signed elsewhere. That selection became the 33rd overall pick in the 2024 MLB Draft. The Twins used it to select infielder Kyle DeBarge, giving the organization a promising young player in exchange for losing Gray.

The 2026 season was an important one for DeBarge, as he spent the entire year at Double-A Wichita. However, consistent production has been difficult to find throughout his minor league career. Across 267 games in the Twins organization, he owns a .230 batting average and a .690 OPS. However, he has performed well in this year’s Arizona Fall League.

DeBarge's selection represents an important part of the qualifying offer process. Even when a team loses a valuable major league player, draft compensation can help replenish the organization's talent pipeline.

What Can the Twins Learn From These Decisions?

The two previous qualifying offers illustrate the different ways this decision can impact a franchise. Odorizzi accepted the offer, and Minnesota received very little production for its $17.8 million investment. Gray declined, signed elsewhere, and allowed the Twins to add another promising prospect through draft compensation.

The qualifying offer involving Jeffers presents a different situation. Minnesota has several roster needs entering the 2027 season, and committing $23.15 million to one catcher could limit the organization's flexibility elsewhere. However, losing one of the better offensive catchers in baseball would also create a significant hole.

If Jeffers accepts, the Twins retain an established player for another season. If he declines, Minnesota gets an opportunity to add another draft selection to its farm system. The organization has already seen both sides of this process, and the Gray outcome provides a reminder that losing a quality player doesn't have to be a complete loss.

The Twins have until November 17 to find out which direction Jeffers chooses. Regardless of his decision, Minnesota's previous qualifying offer experiences show why this offseason decision is worth watching.

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What stands out about both of these qualifying offer decisions? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

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[Trov]

I personally think the Twins hope he takes the offer because they really just want 1 more season from him.  If he turns it down I doubt they look for anything more than a 2 year deal for him and he will find better elsewhere.  They have many catchers in the organization now that they hope will pan out.  They will not want a bloated catching contract on their books when that time comes.