ashbury’s 2025 Trade Deadline Blueprint: Sell, retool

[ashbury]

They lost a game to the Pirates just before the All-Star Break.  They lost a game to the Rockies coming out of it, in the process making Kyle Freeland the latest pitcher having a meh season to look like Cy Young most of the game.  I don't care if they take the next two games against the lowly Rox; a team with legitimate post-season hopes can sweep one of these teams. Instead the offense continues to sputter.  So I'm in sell mode.  As GM I line up some trades, and barring a miracle sweep against the Dodgers I pull the trigger anytime after the first loss against them, unless some team makes me a sweet deal with a time limit that causes me to jump earlier.

I'm not in Fire Sale Mode, though.  My aim is to retool for a run in 2026 after the failure of 2025.  As long as Correa and Buxton and Lopez and Duran are under team control I insist on calling this a window of contention.  Keeping fans engaged is a necessary part of running the team.  I never believe in "selling high", as the value can be used by us just as well as the other team - Duran being an example of a player I'll just "agree to disagree" with some fans concerning - and of course I dislike "selling low" on a player, especially if under team control and with minor-league options remaining.

I don't have any specific trades to mention, but I've zeroed out the players who'd I'd aggressively sell.  Vazquez is the one that, if I have to eat salary to get rid of, I just might hang onto for the remainder of 2025 since I'm not be able to replace him with anything better (barring what I obtain at the deadline of course).  Everyone else of these, have potential trade value - I think - but if not then I hang onto them too as placeholders for the remainder of 2025 - I'm not intent on gutting the roster for its own sake - our talent at AAA isn't nearly as deep as necessary to do that. 

I believe Falvey indicated this past week they've been in information-collection mode a long while now, in either buy/sell direction, and as POBO I'd accelerate that to spend this week learning as clearly as possible how other teams value each of my zeroed out players.  My inclination is to try to package all of these with lesser prospects to obtain higher-value prospects, preferably near-MLB-ready making them ultra-expensive, so if a team values two of my expiring contracts I push hard to see what they would part with and what else I need to add to make it happen.  But I am not interested in parting with any of my top prospects, as that just fixes one hole by opening another.  I can not know how desperate any given contender is to patch holes, so this is a "TBD" part of the blueprint.  (When I play Out Of The Park, I approach a fellow GM with an initial package and suggest a 4-star prospect in return, and see what develops.  You can't "blueprint" the trade deadline any better than this, IMO.)

I don't expect Miranda/Gasper/Julien to have significant trade value but I'd include them in any deal where the other GM suggested them as the final tiny piece.

Post housecleaning, I demote Brooks Lee and Royce Lewis to try to relearn how to hit.  I promote any of the remaining pieces such as Keirsey to fill in the holes in the 26-man roster.  August and September will be a struggle, and Rocco will be put to the test to make any kind of purse, silk or otherwise, out of some of these sows ears.  I'm fine with finishing the season way under payroll budget - I don't begrudge one penny when gearing up in the offseason for contention, but at the trade deadline I'm more than happy to save my ownership group a bunch of money.  (My strong assumption is that part of the POBO's compensation package is a form of profit sharing, and when I can't compete I'm perfectly happy to pocket an extra quarter-million or whatever myself, ditto for my key underlings.)

Again, I'm not parting with meaningful assets under control for next season.  Depending on what comes back in trade, and the remaining progress of the top prospects, I reformulate the roster next November for another competitive run in 2026.  The fans don't deserve another lengthy rebuild.

• C: Ryan Jeffers ($4.70M)
• 1B: Ty France ($0.00M)
• 2B: Brooks Lee ($0.80M)
• 3B: Royce Lewis ($2.30M)
• SS: Carlos Correa ($36.00M)
• LF: Trevor Larnach ($2.10M)
• CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M)
• RF: Matt Wallner ($0.80M)
• DH: Harrison Bader ($0.00M)
• 4th OF: Dashawn Keirsey Jr ($0.80M)
• Utility: Willi Castro ($0.00M)
• Utility: Kody Clemens ($0.80M)
• Backup C: Christian Vazquez ($0.00M)
• NA: Dead Money Here ($0.00M)
• SP1: David Festa ($0.80M)
• SP2: Joe Ryan ($3.80M)
• SP3: Bailey Ober ($4.30M)
• SP4: Chris Paddack ($0.00M)
• SP5: Simeon Woods Richardson ($0.80M)
• RP: Jhoan Duran ($3.70M)
• RP: Brock Stewart ($0.00M)
• RP: Griffin Jax ($2.60M)
• RP: Danny Coulombe ($0.00M)
• RP: Cole Sands ($0.80M)
• RP: Justin Topa ($0.00M)
• RP: Louie Varland ($0.80M)
• RP: Joey Wentz ($0.00M)
• NA: Dead Money Here ($0.00M)

Payroll is 44.21% under budget