DocBauer's RX for 2025

[DocBauer]

After weeks of reflection, I'm kinda "stuck" on my thoughts for 2025, so I thought I'd "bite" on the idea of being the fantasy GM for next season. I'm not using the TD format only because it just feels easier this way for me. But while I'm supposedly in charge, I'm also attempting to using some of the Falvey approach to things.

1] Financially, I'm using the "rough" idea of last seasons $130M payroll and the "end of season projections" of $135M payroll with status quo, WITH arbitration numbers included at that time. That goes along with the TD calculator. IMO, the "we aren't going to cut, but we aren't looking to add" comment from ownership, while vague, might included some variation of that season ending  status quo, so my baseline is between $130M and $135M.

2] Falvey, and myself, aren't want to disrupt what's on hand. No need to add a hole and then try to fill that hole. And I'm not opposed to trading from a good system to add for today, or the future. But I'm also not going to go "Dombroski Sydrom" and rake the MILB system for a 1 or 2 year return. 

So here we go!

#1 Possible] I'm offering Castro a 3yr $20M deal. I'm looking at $5.5 to $5.75M the first season. That saves me between $900K to $650K for 2025. He's an invaluable 10th man to me who puts up a .740-.750 OPS when healthy based on 2023 and the first half of 2024. He provides uncommon depth. I've just offered him life changing $ and almost triple his career earnings so far. And he's still a FA come his age 31 season. PLUS, his contract remains tradeable at any time.

#2 Moves] Paddack and Vazquez will be moved. Not because I want to, but because I need to. Paddack is moved for his entire $7.5M. I believe someone is going to need a catcher and will want Vazquez, and will pay at least $8M, if not his entire $10M. International $, or a low level prospect might clear the entire $10M. The return for both is inconsequential for these purposes.

#3 Move] I'm going to look at the Dodgers, and the Red Sox, and other teams, for a young, talented catcher to team with Jeffers. I'm open, but for purposes of this scenario, let's pick the Dodgers and Rushing as the target. We have a trade history. The Dodgers already have their top 2 catchers in play, and a couple prospects in the system. They want additional young talent to develop for themselves, and to offset future trades. I'm speculating 2 top 20 Twins prospects with a bonus top 30. Almost any arm not named Matthews and Morris are probably in line. But with their keen eye, they might be looking at a surprise like Varland, Adams, Nowlin, or Macleod as possibles. They probably want Kaelen Culpepper. And maybe an OF like Rosario, or Mercedes, or even J Rodriguez or Gonzaez or Beltre.  Some combination of 2 top 20 players and a top 30.

I have my young catcher to team with Jeffers for the next few years.

#4 Move] I WANT to make a deal with the Rays for Yandy Diaz, $10M in 2025 and a team option for $12M for 2026. He's iminitely affordable for anyone but the Rays, who usually flip quality veterans about this time for prospects. But I just can't afford to trade another batch of 2-3 top prospects for him after acquiring my young catcher. I just can't do it, and the "Falvey" in me says the same thing. But I need a solid bat who can play 1B/DH to help my lineup and depth.

I'm going to sign Josh Bell for $7M, with a ceiling of $8M. What little projection I can find has him available for $5.5-7.5M. He's probably more valuable as a DH, but he is experienced at 1B, even though he's only average there at best. But he's an experienced option there to share time with Miranda, without feeling compelled to make Miranda the primary 1B RIGHT NOW. He also adds to the DH spot, which was poor in 2024, and frees Miranda to still play a little 3B.

WAR fans may not like this move, but the switch hitting Bell is a solid career hitter, with a solid OB%, and a career .790 OPS, with a career OPS+ of 114. He's also better against RHP, career .798 OPS, which is the dominate side of things, but has a nearly identical .770 OPS vs LHP. He's been almost as affective since he turned 30, with a downturn early in 2024, and a strong 2nd half after being traded by Miami to Arizona. 

I'm not opposed to bringing back Santana. I sure loved his defense. But I'm trusting Bell at 32yo as a DH/1B working with Miranda vs trusting a 39yo to have a THIRD age defying season. 

#5 Move] While there's real hope for LH relief in the pen between Funderburk, Headrick, the return of Moran at some point, and Nowlin later in the season, the pen takes a step forward if they can add ONE solid, proven LH arm that isn't a LOOGY. The best options are veteran Andrew Chafin and the 31yo Colin Poche. BOTH have quality career splits against RH bats. And that's what's needed for the 7th, and sometimes 8th inning. SOMEONE who can come in to face 2 quality LH bats in the lineup, but who won't be destroyed by a RH. (Think Okert last season). Poche is the younger of the 2 options...and I still can't believe the Rays let him go with a $3.5-ish arbitration number...so he's probably my first choice based on age. While I/Falvey don't like to spend a lot on a pen arm, I'm trying to WIN in 2025 and this is an important add. I'm grabbing whichever one will take a $3-3.5M offer first. I might even offer the younger Poche a 2yr $6M deal.

At this point, I've cleared between $15-17.5M in salary to add a young catcher, a BAT who can help at 1B and DH, and a LHRP that is sorely needed. HOPEFULLY, I've found a way to shed the entire $17.5M, maybe saved a few hundred $K with the Castro re-sign, and a little more here and there with the other arbitration numbers to make sure that happened.

Roughly, $17.5M minus $12M leaves me $5.5 left to work with.

The last item on my check list is a RHOF who doesn't stink against RHP. NO MORE Margot or Garlick platoon only options that are 1 dimensional players who INEVITABLY play way more than the 200 AB they are SUPPOSEDLY suppose to play.

#6 Move] I'm adding that RH OF. My primary targets are Grichuk and Laureano right now. The 33yo Grichuk turned down a $4M option to find something better. I don't expect him to find it. Every late January, early February, there's a couple RHOF looking for a deal. I expect the same this year, especially with various teams looking at lost TV deals and the such. Grichuk offers a decent bat and power and solid splits against RH arms while beating up LH pitching. Laureano the same, but with less power, a little more speed, and a better option as a 3rd or 4th CF cover candidate. BOTH work as a mostly neutral split RH 4th OF option way better than previous placeholders for around $4M.

POSITION PLAYERS:

1B: Miranda/Bell

2B:Lewis/Lee

SS: Correa

3B: Lee/Lewis

LF: Larnach

CF: Buxton

RF: Wallner

DH: Bell/Miranda 

C: Jeffers

10th Man: Castro

BENCH: Keirsey, Rushing, Grichuk/Laureano

ROTATION:

Lopez 

Ryan

Ober

Festa

SWR

BULLPEN:

Duran

Jax

Stewart

Poche

Sands

Alcala

Henriquez 

Tonkin

RESERVE PLAYERS:

Camargo, Julien, Helman, Martin

PEN OPTIONS:

*NOTE, SOMEONE will be on the IL to begin the season almost expectedly, and a couple guys have options to wait and see for when they are needed.

Varland, Topa, Headrick, Adams, Canterino, Castellono, 

ROTATION OPTIONS:

Matthews, Raya. (Let's be honest here, it wouldn't be hard to add Morris or Lewis or anyone else to the 40 man here if needed).

WHAT I WOULD ALSO DO:

I'd bring in Eeles and McCusker in as non roster invite players who have a legitimate chance to surprise in 2025. The non-Falvey in me says "don't ignore potential surprises on hand" and let kids like this get even a small opportunity in ST to show your scouts might have found something. 

WHAT HAVE I ACCOMPLISHED?

Well I sure as hell didn't have the $160M payroll...or more...that I SHOULD HAVE HAD to build my 2025 Twins team. But what i DIDN'T DO was remove talent enough to really contend foe the ALC and beyond. I didn't blow up the future, even though I traded off a handful of quality prospects to get the young catcher we needed to work along side Jeffers. What were we going to do in 2026? The MILB system remains mostly intact.

But I got that young catcher we needed when prospects like Cossetti and Cardenas suddenly tanked in 2024. (Both will hopefully rebound in 2025). And I added a 1B/DH to address a weakness offensively to deepen the lineup and not put too much pressure on Miranda to hold the 1B spot by himself. And I've added a veteran LHRP to deepen the pen and provide a legitimate LH presence. I've also added a RHOF who can cover both corner OF spots with the ability to not suck against RH pitching. 

And I've done that with a payroll for around $132-133M.

And I haven't done anything to take away from the rotation, the pen, or the lineup. I might have only added to the margins, but those margins could mean a couple key games. And I haven't added anyone that could block any top prospects from making their presence known in 2025.