July 12th - State of the Twins, Season Recap, and Lookahead

[OptimisticTwinsFan]

In the next few posts I will write down my thoughts, observations, and reflections of the Twins season so far and look ahead to the rest of the season. 
 

In addition, I will reflect on what we have seen so far over these first 90-100 games and what that means for how we should think about the Twins roster going forward. 
 

I will recap: 

-Twins hitters & their lineup

-Twins bullpen

-Twins starting pitching 

-Twins base running and defense 

In order for me to build my understanding of how to contextualize what I see researching and writing helps me organize my thoughts. 
 

Feel free to add your own reflections, comment on mine, just read, or skip over

 

 

 

 

 

[OptimisticTwinsFan]

My projected Twins lineup by end of year

 

1: Eduardo Julien (DH/2B)

2: Brooks Lee (2B/3B) 

3: Carlos Correa (SS)

4: Royce Lewis (2B/3B/DH)

5: Jose Miranda (1B/DH)

6: Byron Buxton (CF)

7: Matt Wallner (LF)

8: Ryan Jeffers (C)

9: Willy Castro (RF/DH)

 

In looking at this lineup, there is a possibility that this entire roster is 15-25+% over average from a OPS+ standpoint. Further, I think Correa, Lewis, Lee, and Buxton all have chances to be consistent 25-50% better than replacement.  Further options not included here such as Kepler and Larnach have put together seasons or stretches at 20+% above replacement and Larnach despite not living up to his potential is a roughly league average hitter even now. 

 

Many thought this offense could be elite, but when healthy I don’t think anyone could have hoped for the kind of development we have seen from Lewis and Lee. These two players have the potential to be the Twins version of Arod and Derek Jeter stylistically as infielders and hitters. In addition, Correa and Buxton able to stay healthy and deliver seasons at an OPS+ of 130-150 while playing elite defense is incredible. 

 

This gives the Twins a core for the forseable future that when healthy is as formidable as any lineup in the league likely hitting 2 thru 5. The other major progression in the Twins offense has been the development and/or re-emergence of the young crop of Twins hitters that have been promising albeit inconsistent over the last 2 years. 

 

Coming into the season we expected Kirilloff, Wallner, and Julien to cement their roles as above average or better MLB players. This didn’t happen and in fact they all have been sent down to AAA to work on their approach and getting healthy. Instead, we have seen Jose Miranda, Willi Castro, and Ryan Jeffers take major leaps forward as players. In addition, we have started to see Wallner make the approach and swing adjustments to get back to where he was last season. 

 

It is clear that Wallner and Julien are capable of being above average MLB players, but can they be consistent and resilient enough to do this through the ups and downs of a long MLB season and adjust to MLB teams adjustments to them — they are figuring this out. 

 

Wallner, Miranda, and Julien have all been inconsistent due to some flaws as players that likely will keep them from being a player at the Lewis, Lee, Correa, Buxton caliber. 

 

Whether it be contact or plate discipline that make them probably closer to a Max Kepler or Eddie Rosario (or for older Twins fans Michael Cuddyer or Delmon Young) type of player than a level above that — both have shown that they can be above average major leaguers. That being said, it’s possible that one of them can become a Brian Dozier level player instead and succeed expectations consistently year over year. 

 

Matt Wallner 

 

Despite Wallner struggling to start the seasons, Wallner is up to a .333 OBP and .770 OPS. In 91 games over the last 2 seasons, Wallner has 14 XBHs, 16 HRs, 47 RBIs, and 50 BBs + HBPs. This is to say that because Wallner gets on base so often from walks and getting hit by pitches and because of how hard the contact he does get is — he likely will have surprising OPS numbers even if when you watch him there are a lot of empty outs happening. 

 

This is about a .370 OBP with 25+ HR and 50+ XBH power. Wallner has among the highest swing speed in the league and makes some of the hardest contact in the league. His 3 true outcome approach probably means he’s not a true middle of the order player but we’ve seen success from these profiles in the past batting in the bottom 3rd of the order getting on base and generating power. In addition, I think this skillset is a lot more palatable on a team that (1) doesn’t need Wallner to hit at the top or in the middle of the order (2) is one of the best contact and OBP teams in the league. 

 

Jose Miranda 

 

Miranda, with his ability to make decent to good contact, on just about anything and put balls in gaps seems like he can be a .280-.300 hitter who approaches 20 HRs + 40 2B + 3Bs. Even with his bad stretch last season Miranda is now a 115 OPS+ player for his career who is averaging 52 XBHs, a .280 avg, and 80-85 RBIs per 162 games. I don’t think Miranda will consistently be the 150 wOPS+ player that he has been. I do think that Miranda can be a 110-125 OPS+ player. Similar to Wallner, I think because of his flaws his skillset makes a lot more sense as a 6 or 7 hitter versus a 2-4 hitter. 

 

Willi Castro 

 

Castro is just 27 years old and has gotten better as a player every year. He can play all over the diamond in a true UTIL role and plays each position solidly or better. In addition, his energy and activityare a huge spark plug for the Twins lineup. Castro is a weapon because of his ability to hit from both sides of the plate, his ability to use his legs to be aggressive on the base paths and get into scoring position, and his ability to put balls in gaps. This versatility makes him extremely valuable. 

 

Castro is on pace for 45-50 XBHs, 10-15 HRs, 50-55 RBIs, 15-20 SBs, and 90-100 runs good for an OPS+ of about 125. For the Twins, over his last 215 games he’s now been about a 115 OPS+ player. These numbers are actually very similar to a young Eddie Rosario before Rosario became a pull hitter. I think Castro is currently one of the best utility players in the game and while I do think his ideal role is as the Twins utility player… it’s hard to keep him off the field. Castro has made himself a key part of the Twins future. Willi Castro has developed into the perfect utility player who has been about a 115 OPS+ player and can play every position all over the field. 

 

Ryan Jeffers

 

Losing Mitch Garver’s bat from this position seemed like it was going to be a big loss but Ryan Jeffers has largely been able to replace that production while becoming an average or better defensive catcher. Ryan Jeffers has been about a 130 OPS+ player over the last 2 seasons (166 games) who offers a solid amount of pop (30-35 XBH’s and 25+ HRs per 162 games). 

 

Similar to mentioned above, Jeffers is much better suited to be a great 6-8 hitter rather than higher up in the lineup. This allows his power   and hit tool can be gravy on top rather than something you have to rely on especially when he goes through stretches where he shows why his contact skill isn’t elite elite. 

 

Jeffers is also just 27 and on pace to play 120+ games. Jeffers solidifying himself as this caliber of hitter as a catcher is a huge development for the Twins lineup. 

 

Eduardo Julien 

 

The last piece of their lineup that is really important for the Twins to figure out how to get back together is Julien’s unique OBP/power skill. This is a player who had a 155 OPS+ as a rookie in 109 games with similar success at every level of the minors. Julien is the prototypical modern leadoff hitter when he’s on like he was last season. Julien has an elite eye and approach at the plate where he almost never swings at non-strikes. In addition, his ability to let the ball get deep and his power alley the opposite way and to left center is a great tool for him. 

 

Teams started challenge Julien more this year and he needs to show he can make more consistent contact and attack good pitches in the strike zone and put more balls in play. In addition, Julien made strides a second baseman but he needs to become more consistent as a fielder. In addition, if he is DH/1B the bar for him as a hitter is even higher. If Julien puts all or even a good amount of his potential together this is a .380-.400+ OBP player who can hit 20-25+ HRs, 35-40 XBHs, and score 100+ runs. 

 

In addition, in a Twins lineup where there are good hitters in the 7-9 spots Julien’s power will play up even more. In a lineup with hitters like Lee, Lewis, and Correa having a player with his ability to get on base is one thing that is missing even though Castro does a lot of great things from the lead off spot. 

 

Alex Kirilloff 

 

I am not going to write a lot about Kirilloff. In the past few years, I would have told you he is the best of this group of Twins hitters and that I believe he will closer to or in the Lewis/Lee level of hitter with health. Now, with more injuries and the way that his wrist injury has sapped the power from his swing, forced him to make adjustment after adjustment to his swing just to try to feel comfortable swinging, and some of the growing friction between him and the Twins I think he is the odd man out. 

 

I want to see Kirilloff succeed, but it probably happens in a new spot. I think the best version of Kirilloff is a much better version of Miranda who makes even better contact. That being said, Kirilloff was a 118 OPS+ player last year even with injuries and we have seen guys like Miranda look like a completely new guy player or find theirselves again. 

 

I think Kirilloff would have to take (1) Miranda’s spot in the lineup (2) one of the vets Santana/Kepler (3) or leap frog Wallner/Julien again. I don’t see (1) happening this season with Miranda’s streak and the leash that has earned him (2) the vets are stabilizing presences who are hitting 5-20% over replacement and have lots of built in equity in the MLB (3) I think it’s likely that one of Wallner or Julien plays well at least . 

 

Conclusion 

 

It hasn’t been in the ways or the players that we may have expected, but progression and development up and down the Twins lineup has created an elite offense with almost all of the lineup under the age of 30. The Twins lineup has been in many metrics the best lineup in baseball for about a 50-60 game stretch now. In a somewhat crazy fashion, there is still a lot of meat on the bone for the offense to be even better. 

 

The Twins have still struggled with continual injuries to important hitters (Royce Lewis & Alex Kirilloff) that have either continued to prevent consistent production or allow development to progress forward. In other cases, sophomore slumps have delayed and slowed the development and the impact of anticipated lineup fixtures (Wallner, Julie) and even in other cases it seems that former high regarded prospects are topping out as replacement level MLB players (Larnach). 

 

However, this has led to opportunities and incredible development for different players like Castro, Miranda, and Lee. In addition, consistent stretches of staying healthy has led to Correa and Buxton finding themselves again as great to elite hitters. There will continue to be injury concerns going forward and in future years with Buxton, Lewis, and Correa. In addition, Miranda, Wallner, and potentially even Julien have holes l in their game that will lead to inconsistencies and streakiness.

 

This means depth will be important and platooning (at times will important) to set the lineup up for success. For these reasons, I think it will be important for the Twins to develop a couple of bench players that are above average or better hitters. The Twins are in a position to have that depth, especially with Castro’s emergence. 

 

I think the Twins are set-up to have a top 5 offense in baseball over the next 5 years — and there’s more help on the way with guys like Emmanuel Rodriguez, Walker Jenkins, Luke Keaschall, and Yunior Severino who look like future average or better major leaguers. 

[OptimisticTwinsFan]

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Bullpen 

 

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The Twins need to look to upgrade their SP if they want to make a run — I think it is possible that if the Twins are able to add at least one additional front-end arm they may have a team that could contend despite not having as much obvious star power as teams like the Yankees or Dodgers. 

 

There has been some inconsistency in the Twins bullpen and they likely need to either get Thielbar right or add another LHP — but really they mostly need to get healthy. The Twins have: 

 

Duran & Jax who are elite late inning guys who have a proven track record. In addition, Staumont and Alcala have been lights out when healthy and when the Twins have let them throw in the majors. Both players have elite velocity in the upper 90 range and can even touch triple digits, limit base runners, and can make guys swing and miss. 

 

Once Brock Stewart returns, the Twins will be adding an additional flame throwing arm that is capable of getting close to touching triple digits. I’m not sure if a Twins team has ever had 4 relievers who can touch triple digits (and Jax who has one of the best breaking pitches in the game and still throws mid 90s). In addition, as a 7th reliever and long man Cody Sands has developed into a pitcher who can both go multiple innings but also miss bats (3 FIP, 1.07 WHIP, 11 K’s per 9) is about all you can ask from this role. 

 

I think Okert is fine as a LHP reliever in a similar back end role to Sands with an ERA+ of 118 which is similar to his career rate(s). I think once Stewart is back, the Twins have to decide how to solve the LHP specialist role. I think the Twins top relievers have strong enough stuff to get players out on both sides of the plate, but I think an upgrade to this spot could be beneficial. Funderbyurk us a left specialist that has had an elite profile at every level and has struggled this year. 

 

I think teams always need to be developing bullpen arms. But between Okert + Funderbyurk the Twins have decent options in-house from a floor/ceiling perspective and so you’re really looking at making a decision on a 37 year old Thielbar. Thielbar had a 1-week long stretch where he gave up 50% of his runs and 25% of his baserunners over 5 appearances in 2.5 innings in June. Is he washed or does he still have gas left in the tank? 

 

I think the Twins, when healthy, have a bullpen that is arguably as good as anyone’s in the league. This is not Twins bullpens of old, who don’t have great stuff. I think the Twins bullpen might throw as hard or harder on average than any bullpen in the league and their current back end relievers (Okert + Sands) are above average. Bullpens will blow leads throughout a long season. The Twins do need to get healthier here, try to get Duran back into his best form, and try to find a path to gaining confidence in their #1 lefty specialist both for this year and long term although they have some internal options to have confidence in. 

 

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Potential Reliever Trade Targets 

 

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One potential name to keep an eye on is Tanner Scott on the Marlins. He is a left-handed reliever who is pitching lights out in high leverage situations for the Marlins and has done so in other seasons as well for different teams in the MLB. 

 

If the Twins decide they don’t trust Thielbar, Scott is a rental and will be a coveted piece but likely could be had for a reasonable price. The Twins have good relations with the Marlins as trade partners and a history of making deals. 

[OptimisticTwinsFan]

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Defense, base running, and staring pitching 

 

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So, the Twins have a top 5 offense and a top 5 bullpen — and are likely set up to be in a position to have top 5 groups in these areas for the forseable future. What’s holding the Twins back? They are an average to below average fielding, baserunning, and starting pitching team. 

 

Defensive metrics are hard to measure. The Twins have foundations in place to be an elite defensive team when healthy up the middle and in the infield (Buxton, Correa, Lewis, Lee, Castro, and Santana). This means that while the Twins rank around 20th in defensive runs saved I think they are probably actually an average to above average team defensively. They have some range issues in the corners and I think inconsistent defense and base runner management behind the plate is their biggest weakness. I think that they have defensive lineups options that should be above average even if they don’t have elite elite range. The biggest area that the Twins should likely look to upgrade is in their catcher rotation. 

 

These metrics aren’t great either, but the Twins rank 25th in stolen bases and 17th in base running metrics from Fangraphs. While slightly more aggressive than years past, the Twins don’t have a ton of team speed and are pretty conservative on the bases to not get thrown out. I think this is an area the Twins could get more aggressive in but with how good their lineup is I think stylistically this makes sense. 

 

So, the Twins are an elite hitting team, with an elite bullpen, an above average defense, who play relatively stationary on the base paths. I think they fall short, especially among playoff teams and against good teams is their starting pitching. The Twins are missing a top end rotation starter to win them games against elite teams in the playoffs and are also probably missing ready starting pitching depth, especially in their upper minors to deal with injuries throughout a regular season. 

[OptimisticTwinsFan]

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Starting Pitching

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The Twins SP has been below average in the aggregate this season. The primary reason(s) are disappointing production from their #1 slot and an inability to find a consistent #5. 

 

That being said, there is a lot the Twins can work with. Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober are “elite” 3rd and 4th starters and “solid to good” regular season 2nd and 3rd starters and have largely been for parts of multiple seasons now. 

 

The Twins development staff has a type with starting pitchers and stylistically they develop starters who (1) have swung and miss stuff (2) have swing and miss stuff while pitching aggressively in the strike zone, especially at the top of the strike zone (3) limit base runners (4) susceptible to hard contact and home runs (but ideally with limiting base runners the impact of this hard contact is limited). Lopez, Ryan, and Ober all fit this mold of a pitcher. 

 

I think this style of pitching is a really strong profile to develop and does allow starting pitchers to max out their development and their “stuff”. I think in the current Twins rotation there are open questions on how well this style of pitching plays against elite hitters/offenses in the playoffs. Proponents would argue that this style of pitching is better against better offenses because they will get on base and hit the ball hard against basically everyone. However, we have seen the Twins not be able to rely/trust on this profile multiple times through the order in the playoffs. 

 

Joe Ryan

 

All this being said, Ryan and Ober continue to improve and I personally am high on them as starting pitchers and even playoff starting pitchers. Joe Ryan has a 123 ERA+ with a sub 1 WHIP, 10 strikeouts per 9 innings, 7.4 BB to K ratio, a 3.29 ERA that is backed by a 3.46 FIP, while returning to his career norm of about 1.2 home runs per 9 innings. 

 

This is basically a top 25ish ERA, top 5ish WHIP & BB to K ratio, and a top 15 K rate for a starting pitcher. This is also top 15ish in innings per start and bottom 10ish bad in the number of home runs allowed which is the reason for the gap in ERA based on peripherals. 

 

Basically, I think Ryan is a “solid” #2 on a playoff team and an elite #3 on a true WS contending team. I think Ryan is as good as he’s shown and his unique arm slot, ability to tunnel his pitch mix, command in the strike zone, and ability to continue to adjust and refine his movement profile(s) on his pitches and the way he attacks hitters to me suggests he can consistently be this guy. The biggest thing that Ryan has to show is that he can be durable enough to maintain this caliber of play through an entire 162 game season and into the playoffs which takes time to learn how to do and he appears to be improving at. 

 

Bailey Ober

 

Ober had an awful initial start in the season that has made his numbers look much worse. Since that initial start Ober has had a 3.40 ERA with a 1.0 WHIP, 9.6 K’s per 9, a 4.5 K to BB ratio, and 1.2 HRs per 9 innings. These peripherals are nearly identical to the roughly 3.35 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 8.9 K per 9, and 4.5-5 K to BB ratio he put up in his previous 200 innings over parts of the previous 2 seasons. These are very similar peripherals to Ryan and profile out to an ERA+ of about 120 to 125. 

 

While you cannot just remove a players worst start of the season, I feel pretty confident in saying that I believe Ober is the remarkably consistent pitcher that we have seen over his other roughly 300 previous innings in the majors over parts of 3 seasons. Similar to Ryan, Ober’s ability to attack the strike zone and miss bats inside of the strike zone, command all of his pitches, l control the top of the strike zone, and unique physical profile (6’9) allow him to compensate for his lack of pure velocity on his fastball. In addition, his frame and size make Ober very easy to project as someone you can rely on to pitch a lot of strong innings. Also like Ryan, because Ober doesn’t have elite velocity and because he pitches in the zone/tries to control the top of the strike zone when Ober does get hit he usually gets hard — also in the bottom range of HR run rate for MLB starters who are legit major leaguers. 

 

Simeon Woods Richardson

 

Ryan & Ober’s consistency and continued development put the Twins in a position to be really one starting pitcher away from having an elite rotation. The other promising and surprising development is the way Simeon Woods Richardson has pitched for the Twins this season. SWR is a former top prospect whose development has slowed as he has gotten closer to the majors. That being said, SWR has or at least was pushed aggressively and aggressively in response to having earned call-ups to A/AA and even AAA much more quickly than most starting pitchers. 

 

SWR has struggled with his mechanics and has gone through stretches of losing command and velocity. Coming into the season this dampened expectations surrounding SWR. In the off-season, the Twins were able to work with SWR and find better arm slot(s) and pitching mechanics that have allowed him to go from sitting 88-90 and touching 92 to sitting 92-94 and touching 96. SWR, in my opinion, does not profile as a front end rotation pitcher because he is not a pitcher who has elite swing and miss stuff and instead limits walks and generating weak contact. 

 

This has led to great headline stats of a 3.48 ERA and a 1.1 WHIP. That being said, his strikeout rate is only 7.5 per 9 innings. His BABIP, strand rate, and other peripheral metrics suggest some regression is coming with advanced pitching metrics in the 3.8 or 3.9 to low 4 range. In addition, SWR has only averaged 5 innings per start and the Twins are doing much more to protect him, limit the length of his outings, and the number of times he faces the 3rd pitcher through the order. 

 

There is likely regression coming and SWR is no better than an acceptable #5 (and not a playoff SP) at this stage. However, with him finding success in the majors at 23 along with his newfound velocity and ability to command both his fastball and breaking pitches in the zone the Twins should be opmistic that SWR can be a cost controlled bottom of the rotation starter that can give them confidence in going after a top of the rotation starter. And who knows, maybe there is a path to SWR reaching a similar level to a Ryan or an Ober. Reminder, Ober and Ryan didn’t reach the majors until 25 or 26 (Covid was part of the reason for that). SWR is finding consistency at the MLB level 1-2 years ahead of both of those pitchers.

 

Pablo Lopez and the top of the Twins rotation

 

The biggest disappointment this season has been at the top of the rotation. The Twins let Sonny Gray go in the off-season and didn’t target a replacement to reduce spending and lower their team’s salary cap. In addition, while Pablo Lopez had the stuff and peripherals of a top 10 pitcher last season he has been bad or at least disappointing this season. 

 

Some of this is bad luck, Lopez has led the league in runs given up this season and has an ERA in the mid 5’s. This is despite his K rate (10.5 per 9 innings) and BB rate (2 per 9 innings) being among his career best and as good as any SP in the league and a WHIP of 1.19 which is elevated from his previous years but not drastically so. His peripherals and adjusted ERA suggests that he’s pitched more like a pitcher in the low to high 3 era range, the higher projections being closer to what the Twins expected.  

 

The most obvious cause of this regression is his HR rate which has ballooned to 1.5 per 9 innings from just under or close to 1. In addition his strand rate is well below his career average (60-65% versus 75+%). In addition, he is getting slightly less soft contact but isn’t really getting hit harder but more medium contact and batters are hitting more balls in the air. 

 

Lopez has the best stuff out of the Twins staff and does have probably 1b level stuff on a true contending team. Similar, to Ryan and Ober, Lopez has a similar profile where he can miss bats while pitching inside of the zone and is susceptible to giving up hard contact and home runs at times and for stretches that can lead to bad stretches at times. Lopez’s peripherals do suggest that he will likely pitch more like a top 15-25 SP going forward and he still has the potential to be a borderline top 10 SP. 

 

The biggest improvement on the pitching staff that the Twins need is they need to help Lopez find his consistency. If he does, the Twins will have 3 pitchers who are in the top 30-40 range or better and potentially even 3 pitchers that are inside of the top 25-30 SPs. In addition, as all 3 pitchers are in the middle of their primes they should be this caliber of pitcher or better for the next 3-5 seasons or more when healthy. 

 

On a true contending team, Lopez is the #2 starter because of some of his inconsistencies throughout seasons where he doesn’t perform up to his peripherals. The Twins could go from an average to below average starting pitching staff to a top 5 or better starting staff through adding a good or elite pitcher at Pablo Lopez’s level or better. This would allow Lopez, Ryan, Ober and SWR to state into the 3-5 spots instead of then 2-4 spots. In addition, this would allow the Twins to improve their depth when their top starters miss starts. 

 

When healthy a starting staff of Lopez, Ryan, Ober, SWR, and a rotating 5th starter is probably an above average or even top 10 staff. The problem is the Twins have not been able to find a consistent 5th starter because of injuries or otherwise. Paddack has had stretches of being fine for a 5th starter but he still has a 5.4 era and a 1.40 whip and he’s been the best option for the Twins. 

 

Twins pitching staff — Issues at the #5 spot 

 

Options such as Varland and Festa have combined to go 1-5 in 7 starts giving up 31 runs in 36 innings. The Twins don’t have a lot of major league ready arms as off-season plans for starting pitching depth remain on the injury list, Varland doesn’t appear to be an MLB caliber starting pitcher, and Festa isn’t ready. This is more of a regular season problem than a postseason problem although the postseason problem is missing one additional true ace that can carve up elite offenses consistently. 

 

If the Twins front office and management is willing to spend on the right pitcher or even the right set of traits the Twins have shown the ability to develop profiles of starting pitchers and make them better. 

 

Targeting a top of rotation at the deadline or in the off-season 

 

I would be willing to trade from their areas of surplus and their pitching prospects for the right starter. I would make players like Kirilloff, Wallner, and Larnach available. I would consider even making Miranda and Julien available. 

 

For the Twins prospects, I would make anyone not named Rodriguez or Jenkins available for the right player. Players such as (1) Keaschal (2) Gabriel Gonzalez and (3) David Festa are all borderline top 100 prospects or better. In addition the Twins have a number of other pitching prospects that they should considering giving up like (1) Culpepper (2) Raya (3) Soto (4) Zebby Matthews (5) Prielepp and more. 

 

If you could get a true ace or at least Pablo Lopez level player by dealing (1) Kirilloff (2) Keaschall (3) Gonzalez (3) Festa (4) an additional pitching prospect based on who the team likes the Twins should do it. The Twins have a surplus of corner outfield and corner infield prospects. Players like Kepler and Larnach (assuming they aren’t move) can be serviceable players until Rodriguez & Jenkins are ready. In addition, the Twins aren’t able to create consistent MLB roles for all of their current wave of young players that is in the MLB or on the cusp of figuring out what their role looks like in the MLB. 

 

This will be hard to do because a lot of the best cost controlled options/options are on rival teams in the division (Crochet, Montgomery). A player like Jesus Luzardo would be a great cost controlled target if Miami were willing. If a top starter doesn’t materialize there could be veteran options such as (1) Tyler Anderson (2) Kevin Gausman (3) Kukuchi (4) Frankie Montas or more that are worth pursuing in order to improve the starting pitching depth quality during the regular season and protect the Twins if injuries happen to their top 3. 

 

It’s not likely the Twins pay a larger contract to go after one of these aging veterans. This would cost less to acquire but it would leave the Twins with a log jam that is making it difficult to properly develop talented hitters. The Twins are in a position to be able to pay a significant amount for another Pablo Lopez level starter and help out another team quite a bit without really hurting themselves and potentially helping through subtraction. 

 

If the Twins can acquire a Pablo Lopez level starter or better — the Twins, when healthy, may be able to make an argument that they have a (1) top 5 starting offense (2) top 5 bench with options such as Castro, Santana, and Larnach who are all 5-25% over replacement (3) a top 5 SP (4) a top 5 bench with virtually no key players over 29-30 years old. 

[OptimisticTwinsFan]

Overall conclusion & recap of the 2024 Twins season so far 

 

I think Twins fans should be extremely excited in the face of ownership struggles and frustrations with injuries.  The roster construction of this team, both now, and the way it is set up for the next 3-5+ years is exciting. It’s not often that even talented prospects actually look like they are true star level talents (Lewis, Lee). More often than not, they are Kirilloff and Larnach. 

 

In addition, the front office with the resources they are given has found a pattern and a philosophy that allows them to consistently maximize pitchers and turn them into great middle to decent low end starters (Lopez, Ryan, Ober, SWR). They know how to identify value and opportunity from other teams to find and develop this type of pitcher — this is great. 

In the bullpen, the Twins front office to be targeting and developing high end stuff and velocity relievers. The Twins bullpen has never been this deep with high 90s and triple digit flamethrowers. This should put us in positions to make our pitching staff play up and cover the lack of true elite SP talent to some degree. 

 

In some areas, we have a surplus of talent and with the Twins appearing to have found a number of cornerstones for the next 3, 5, or even 10 years I think this is a great opportunity to be able to offer teams a lot of value that is worth more to them then to us.