Gleeman and the Geek, Ep 591: Knocking On Wood

[John Bonnes]

Aaron and John talk about Tyler Mahle's shoulder problems, why the Wild Card standings are now very relevant for the Twins, Sonny Gray and other starters the third time through lineups, missing Kyle Garlick, and Caleb Thielbar saving everyone's butts. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher, iHeartRadio or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click this link. 

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[Alex Schieferdecker]

When hearing about "third time through the order" stats, I think it's important to keep in mind that there is selection bias at work. A pitcher who is having an off day is not going to last long enough to face the order a third time. A pitcher who is overmatched is not going to face the order a third time.

So when you see a pitcher's stats going through the third time of the order, it's important to keep in mind that these numbers come from games in which they were previously cruising. These are numbers taken from the best third (let's say) of their outings, when they were relatively fresh and demonstrably effective.

People act like it's a great mystery why the Twins rarely let a starter face the opponent's hitters a third time, and then they refuse to change their view when confronted by not-especially-hard-to-decipher statistics, or just plain old experience!

[Yawn Gardenhose]

You lost me, Alex. Lately pitchers have been cruising and haven't been allowed to face the lineup for a third time. Bundy's last start, in which precisely zero balls were hit hard through 5 innings against the Angels, comes to mind, for one. 

The bigger flaw is that the 3rd time through numbers are incomplete. I went through Gray's starts and he hasn't been allowed to FULLY face 3rd time through the lineup even once this season. By fully I mean batters 1 through 9. He's been pulled a few batters into the third trip, as have most of the starters. Bundy in Arizona in June was the only starter I found this year that has been allowed to fully go through the lineup 3 times, and that was in an 11-1 game (I haven't checked Ryan and Smeltzer yet but I doubt they've done it. Archer and Ober I don't need to check).

Since lineups are top-heavy, the stats against the lineup are going to look worse because you're only facing the BEST hitters 3 times. I'd venture that the statistics would look better if they'd be able to face the 7-8-9 hitters 3 times too.

As the old saying goes, there are three kinds of lies: Lies, damned lies, and statistics.